Any members hold an Auburn futures bet @ 1000 to 1?
January 5th, 2014 at 7:13:33 PM
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Was just reading that the odds on Auburn winning the national championship were 1000 to 1 to start on the futures last fall. LVH has 14 holders of tickets at those odds according the story. I assume any other book that offered the same odds has a few out as well.
A second related question is if you held this ticket (let say $20 for a potential $20,000 payoff) would you hedge it?
A second related question is if you held this ticket (let say $20 for a potential $20,000 payoff) would you hedge it?
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
January 5th, 2014 at 7:21:00 PM
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I'd definitely hedge it
January 5th, 2014 at 7:49:00 PM
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Quote: BeardgoatI'd definitely hedge it
The only way I assume is to bet Florida State to win, moneyline currently -350. to win 100.usd.
Also just noticed the betting line has moved to F.S.U. -10.points.
So how do you hedge your possible 20,000.usd win?
January 5th, 2014 at 7:52:47 PM
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Here's the actual Q and A from today's LVA for those don't don't go there. Apologies to admins for copy/pasting rather than linking directly, but the question will be gone tomorrow.
Q:
A story from Bloomberg says that the LVH Superbook has 14 players holding tickets for Auburn to win the national championship at 1,000-1 odds. Can a player offer to sell the bet back to the casino (before the final game)? Are players allowed to sell bets to other players?
A:
Auburn plays Florida St. in tomorrow’s national championship game and the holders of those futures-bet tickets are looking at a potentially big payday. Auburn went 3-9 last year and plays in the talent laden SEC, which is why the long odds were put up in the first place. They came down steadily as Auburn racked up win after win, but the 14 players who bought tickets at 1,000-1 have that payout locked in. LVH hasn’t disclosed the amounts bet, but since these types of wagers tend to be potshots taken by alumni and other die-hard fans, they’re usually for small amounts, like $10 or $20. Still, that puts the book in the quarter-million-dollar range in terms of exposure, at least.
If the book is sweating that exposure (and we can guarantee it is), consider what it’s gone through in watching Auburn get to this championship game. Even standing at 10-1, they were still long shots to make it with two games left against staunch competition and several teams ahead of them in the polls, but an unlikely series of events ensued. First they beat Georgia 43-38 on a last-second bomb that bounced off a defender and into the hands of an Auburn receiver. Then they defeated #1 ranked and two-time defending national champion Alabama 34-28 by returning a time-expiring field goal attempt for a touchdown in what will go down as one of the most famous plays in college history. Even then, at 12-1, they needed a loss by either Florida St. or Ohio St. to get the bid, and Ohio St. fell to Michigan St., putting Auburn in the championship and one upset away from a nightmare finish for the bookies. Sorry LVH.
So what can the lucky 14 (and others who bet with other sports books) do with their 1,000-1 tickets? A sports ticket is a bearer instrument that can be transferred or sold to any willing buyer. If you can find another party to buy the ticket at a discount so you can ensure a profit, that’s perfectly legal. The casino sports books won’t buy them back, but they do the next best thing, which is offer other bets that allow you to hedge all or part of the risk.
A quick word about hedging. It’s almost never mathematically optimal to hedge, because you’re usually betting more money into a negative-expectation situation (the bookie has the advantage on most bets). A purist would argue that you’re getting 1,000-1 on what’s become a 3-1 proposition. That's about as good a gambling deal as you'll ever get, so just roll with it. In the real world, though, there are bankroll and financial considerations that almost always lead players to make a hedging maneuver of some sort.
In the following discussion, we’ll assume you hold a $20 futures bet that will generate a $20,000 payout if Auburn wins. At the time of this writing, Florida St. and a -8.5 favorite or -300 on the money line. Keep in mind that these techniques can be used in any hedging situation.
Since Florida St. is the favorite, the easiest strategy of going for a "middle" is eliminated. Had the line been reversed, you could guarantee a win by taking Florida St. +8.5 for something like $11,000 to win $10,000. In this scenario, if Auburn wins by 9 or more, you win $20,000 and lose the $11,000 hedge for a $9,000 profit. If Florida St. wins, you win $10,000 (minus the $20 for the original futures bet). And if Auburn wins by 1 to 8 points, you win both bets and score a $30,000 bonanza. (Some players always take the Monday-night favorite in weekly football contests so they can bet off on the dog in this fashion when they have a perfect ticket.) Alas, as the favorite, Florida St. is laying the points, so this strategy doesn’t apply, but you can still lock in a profit using the money line.
The money line is a bet on which team will win outright (no pointspreads). The -300 on Florida St. means you have to bet $300 to win $100. Now you can bet $15,000 to win $5,000 on Florida St., sit back, and wait to collect $5K no matter who wins the game. Or you could take a partial hedge, betting, say, $9,000 to win $3,000 on Florida State. Now you net $11,000 if Auburn wins (your $20K future minus $9K) or $3,000 if Florida St. wins (the payoff on your hedge bet).
There are other ways to hedge. For example, you could bet an "alternative line" that might have Florida St. +3.5/-550. In this case you could bet $9,900 to guarantee a win of $10,100 with Auburn, $1,800 with Florida St., or $21,800 if Auburn wins by 1-3 points. Sophisticated players might use Florida St. as the final leg on several teasers, or play semi-hedges, such as betting the Auburn team total over and Florida St. team total under (understanding that there’s a correlation between these results and the game result). One more approach is to roll the dice from the start, with an eye toward hedging at half time, or even monitoring in-game wagering where available, allowing the possibility of hedging at any time.
The bottom line is, even though the sports books won’t buy back your bet outright, they provide all the means you need to sell it back in just about any proportion you like. Remember that if you do sell the ticket to someone before kick-off, you will almost certainly have to discount it. Since there’s about a 1-in-3 chance the ticket cashes, the $20,000 ticket is worth about $6,500, but you’ll probably have to sell it for around $5,000 to get someone to bite. The buyer will likely use a version of one of the options just outlined to lock in a better return, so you might as well do it yourself.
[Editor’s Note: These are the types of discussions that take place in our LVASportsboards fee-based forums. They’re hosted by Frank B, who contributed to this answer. You can try the boards through the Super Bowl for $24.95 and also be eligible for a free-to-play Super Bowl contest.]
Q:
A story from Bloomberg says that the LVH Superbook has 14 players holding tickets for Auburn to win the national championship at 1,000-1 odds. Can a player offer to sell the bet back to the casino (before the final game)? Are players allowed to sell bets to other players?
A:
Auburn plays Florida St. in tomorrow’s national championship game and the holders of those futures-bet tickets are looking at a potentially big payday. Auburn went 3-9 last year and plays in the talent laden SEC, which is why the long odds were put up in the first place. They came down steadily as Auburn racked up win after win, but the 14 players who bought tickets at 1,000-1 have that payout locked in. LVH hasn’t disclosed the amounts bet, but since these types of wagers tend to be potshots taken by alumni and other die-hard fans, they’re usually for small amounts, like $10 or $20. Still, that puts the book in the quarter-million-dollar range in terms of exposure, at least.
If the book is sweating that exposure (and we can guarantee it is), consider what it’s gone through in watching Auburn get to this championship game. Even standing at 10-1, they were still long shots to make it with two games left against staunch competition and several teams ahead of them in the polls, but an unlikely series of events ensued. First they beat Georgia 43-38 on a last-second bomb that bounced off a defender and into the hands of an Auburn receiver. Then they defeated #1 ranked and two-time defending national champion Alabama 34-28 by returning a time-expiring field goal attempt for a touchdown in what will go down as one of the most famous plays in college history. Even then, at 12-1, they needed a loss by either Florida St. or Ohio St. to get the bid, and Ohio St. fell to Michigan St., putting Auburn in the championship and one upset away from a nightmare finish for the bookies. Sorry LVH.
So what can the lucky 14 (and others who bet with other sports books) do with their 1,000-1 tickets? A sports ticket is a bearer instrument that can be transferred or sold to any willing buyer. If you can find another party to buy the ticket at a discount so you can ensure a profit, that’s perfectly legal. The casino sports books won’t buy them back, but they do the next best thing, which is offer other bets that allow you to hedge all or part of the risk.
A quick word about hedging. It’s almost never mathematically optimal to hedge, because you’re usually betting more money into a negative-expectation situation (the bookie has the advantage on most bets). A purist would argue that you’re getting 1,000-1 on what’s become a 3-1 proposition. That's about as good a gambling deal as you'll ever get, so just roll with it. In the real world, though, there are bankroll and financial considerations that almost always lead players to make a hedging maneuver of some sort.
In the following discussion, we’ll assume you hold a $20 futures bet that will generate a $20,000 payout if Auburn wins. At the time of this writing, Florida St. and a -8.5 favorite or -300 on the money line. Keep in mind that these techniques can be used in any hedging situation.
Since Florida St. is the favorite, the easiest strategy of going for a "middle" is eliminated. Had the line been reversed, you could guarantee a win by taking Florida St. +8.5 for something like $11,000 to win $10,000. In this scenario, if Auburn wins by 9 or more, you win $20,000 and lose the $11,000 hedge for a $9,000 profit. If Florida St. wins, you win $10,000 (minus the $20 for the original futures bet). And if Auburn wins by 1 to 8 points, you win both bets and score a $30,000 bonanza. (Some players always take the Monday-night favorite in weekly football contests so they can bet off on the dog in this fashion when they have a perfect ticket.) Alas, as the favorite, Florida St. is laying the points, so this strategy doesn’t apply, but you can still lock in a profit using the money line.
The money line is a bet on which team will win outright (no pointspreads). The -300 on Florida St. means you have to bet $300 to win $100. Now you can bet $15,000 to win $5,000 on Florida St., sit back, and wait to collect $5K no matter who wins the game. Or you could take a partial hedge, betting, say, $9,000 to win $3,000 on Florida State. Now you net $11,000 if Auburn wins (your $20K future minus $9K) or $3,000 if Florida St. wins (the payoff on your hedge bet).
There are other ways to hedge. For example, you could bet an "alternative line" that might have Florida St. +3.5/-550. In this case you could bet $9,900 to guarantee a win of $10,100 with Auburn, $1,800 with Florida St., or $21,800 if Auburn wins by 1-3 points. Sophisticated players might use Florida St. as the final leg on several teasers, or play semi-hedges, such as betting the Auburn team total over and Florida St. team total under (understanding that there’s a correlation between these results and the game result). One more approach is to roll the dice from the start, with an eye toward hedging at half time, or even monitoring in-game wagering where available, allowing the possibility of hedging at any time.
The bottom line is, even though the sports books won’t buy back your bet outright, they provide all the means you need to sell it back in just about any proportion you like. Remember that if you do sell the ticket to someone before kick-off, you will almost certainly have to discount it. Since there’s about a 1-in-3 chance the ticket cashes, the $20,000 ticket is worth about $6,500, but you’ll probably have to sell it for around $5,000 to get someone to bite. The buyer will likely use a version of one of the options just outlined to lock in a better return, so you might as well do it yourself.
[Editor’s Note: These are the types of discussions that take place in our LVASportsboards fee-based forums. They’re hosted by Frank B, who contributed to this answer. You can try the boards through the Super Bowl for $24.95 and also be eligible for a free-to-play Super Bowl contest.]
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
January 5th, 2014 at 7:53:36 PM
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I wouldn't hedge it. LVH has it at -360. A $10,000 bet only wins approx. $2700 and if you made a $20 initial bet, I doubt you have $10,000 laying around.
January 5th, 2014 at 7:58:05 PM
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Quote: NokTangThe only way I assume is to bet Florida State to win, moneyline currently -350. to win 100.usd.
Also just noticed the betting line has moved to F.S.U. -10.points.
So how do you hedge your possible 20,000.usd win?
You bet something like $14k on FSU money line? So if FSU wins you win $4k and if Auburn wins you are up $6k?
I wouldn't do this for a possible $20k win. I might try to do it for a $200k win, but I don't know... would I have trouble getting a $140k bet down?
January 5th, 2014 at 7:58:38 PM
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I'd wager 15k on FSU money line. You either net $5k if auburn wins, or net $5250 if FSU wins. That would maximize your guaranteed win.
Edit for math. Should be about 4,250, not 5250. In any case I guess it just depends on how much of a risk taker you are, or how much the money would mean to you. I'd personally hedge it to maximize the highest guaranteed return.
Edit for math. Should be about 4,250, not 5250. In any case I guess it just depends on how much of a risk taker you are, or how much the money would mean to you. I'd personally hedge it to maximize the highest guaranteed return.
January 5th, 2014 at 8:03:00 PM
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Great and prompt reply. Thanks. Finding someone to buy it for $5000.usd sounds like the best option. How to find a trustworthy person remains of course the problem. I doubt you could do it on eBay. Not everyone is above stealing a 20K ticket from others. The group around you that could be trusted is very limited.
January 5th, 2014 at 8:06:24 PM
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Quote: BeardgoatI'd wager 15k on FSU money line. You either net $5k if auburn wins, or net $5250 if FSU wins. That would maximize your guaranteed win.
While the odds are now higher on the money line, that aside, you still have to get to Las Vegas, room, food, and avoid other gambling losses. For some reason locking in on $10,000.usd would read, sound, and be better. That doesn't seem possible. $5000.usd can easily be blown after airfare and above items.
January 5th, 2014 at 8:09:03 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoice... would I have trouble getting a $140k bet down?
The Wizard has trouble getting $20usd bets down. One can only imagine what an unknown tourist showing up with that kind of cash. This appears isn't the Las Vegas some of us grew up with. Sweating $20.usd bets all over town?
January 5th, 2014 at 8:15:36 PM
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Like it said, it all depends on your situation. I live in arizona. It's 4.5 hour drive and I get free rooms at most Caesars properties. My cost would be about $100 in gas to drive there. You'd have no trouble finding a book on the strip taking a $15k wager.
January 5th, 2014 at 8:17:46 PM
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Quote: BeardgoatLike it said, it all depends on your situation. I live in arizona. It's 4.5 hour drive and I get free rooms at most Caesars properties. My cost would be about $100 in gas to drive there. You'd have no trouble finding a book on the strip taking a $15k wager.
While the LVH won't buy back their bet, according to the article posted, is there some reason one of the other Vegas books wouldn't buy that ticket as a hedge for their own book? I would ask them first, if I had one of those tickets.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
January 5th, 2014 at 8:26:33 PM
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Quote: NokTangThe Wizard has trouble getting $20usd bets down. One can only imagine what an unknown tourist showing up with that kind of cash. This appears isn't the Las Vegas some of us grew up with. Sweating $20.usd bets all over town?
Yeah but that's on those half-point parlay cards, where the books know that some of the lines are weak. I've bet individual games at around $2500, and multple tickets totalling $5k at a time, with no problems.
$140k is a lot more than $5k though.
