Current week nfl/college

Sat-I am playing a wind chill angle. Kansas and Michigan both playing with wind chills in the teens and single digits respectively.
I have no data to support that wind chills and under correlate. One game has good defenses, while the other has poor offenses.
Also going with BYU over ND....only because of gusty winds, teen wind chill, and snow....and BYU has by far the better run game of the 2.

for pros..i am lookiing at Arizona....better defensive team at home.

I have found that game temperature has little to no bearing on the total points scored, snow/rain significantly INCREASES the total # of points scored, and heavy wind is the only weather element that decreases the total points scored. And of course these angles need to be played early in the week, because by 8am on game day the lines have all moved , and the move is usually overcompensating for the weather

I have movedoff of kansas under and onto mich state under.

thanks for the input on the cold weather.

Actually I liked the games as under early in the week, and the totals moved minimally so since the weather predictions held up..as i mentioned above i bet under on both the michigan and michigan state games. They both came in so far.
Ifi am looking at weather I dont bet early, its enough i gamle on the games..i wont gamble on a change in weather

I went off the kansas game because the increase in the total scared me away...seems maybe smart money was coming in on the over.

gauranteed a winning saturday....if BYU wins..it will be a clean sweep

It just seems that dozens of random/odd unforeseen events
occur within a game making it impossible to determine the PSO (point spread outcome) winner ....especially in football. The ball is not round.

I do applaud your passion.

a hard frozen even slippery field can lead to fumbles that can lead to quick scores...or it can kill long drives that just eat up clock with no points. In my opinion it kind of evens out as far as mistakes due to weather and points or lack of points.

If those things even out then ot comes down to the diffuculty of throwing a hard often slippery ball. if that is difficult and leads to incomplete passes, and teams dont run well.....i can see an advantage to the under.

if teams run well, then they may be one dimensional and the run may not be as productive in these conditions

its all on an individual matchup......not an automatic on bad weather

My opinion is the weather is very overrated in football. If anything, I would be tempted to bet the over in really cold games, because I know the square action will be on the under.

Quote: Wizard

My opinion is the weather is very overrated in football. If anything, I would be tempted to bet the over in really cold games, because I know the square action will be on the under.

In my opinion as a blanket rule, you cannot gain any real advantage by looking at weather only.

But adverse weather wind and freezing temps....in my opinion can be used for under valuations for certain matchups. Not every matchup..

but for example..there are 2 teams with below average passing. Well witha hard freezing ball, a below average QB passing with or against freezing winds will find it hard to make plays. In addition even if they have a good running game, it is now easy for the other team to key in on it making it less effective. With 2 teams like this..i do take weather into account

If its the same weather conditions and 2 teams have at least average passing and running...well then I dont take weather into account since there will be some passes made and therefore running will be more effective as well.

So i am not a big fan of looking at weather first. But I do look at weather for certain matchups only

It's been a frustrating football year. This weekend got me on the + side(51.85%). Thank you wizard for providing a place to share the news.

Quote: LarryS

Sat-I am playing a wind chill angle. Kansas and Michigan both playing with wind chills in the teens and single digits respectively.
I have no data to support that wind chills and under correlate. One game has good defenses, while the other has poor offenses.
Also going with BYU over ND....only because of gusty winds, teen wind chill, and snow....and BYU has by far the better run game of the 2.

for pros..i am lookiing at Arizona....better defensive team at home.

3 out of 4 ...not bad

I thought arizonas defense would be dominant...I had no idea their offense would dominate as well.

next week may be different. I will have to look in on it further. I am very wary about getting too excited about a team that is involved in a blowout....on either side of the blowout....for the next week.

I need help Larry. I am on a losing streak........ SIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The thing about losing streaks is that sometimes you hook up with somone who has been doing well and you start to take his advice just when he is going on a losing streak...thereby extending your losing streak.

Sometimes the best way to stop a losing streak is to step away.....or go to your secondary game.

I have 2 games....live table poker, and sports. Right now i have not been doing well at poker so I skew my weekly bankroll more toward sports. If sports starts to tank..i will go more toward poker.

If they both go south...I will take a week off or bet very little.

Maybe you need a week off.