NokTang
NokTang
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October 28th, 2013 at 3:27:45 AM permalink
Thinking about substantial wager on both of these games. I come from Florida, so know something about the hype aspects but not much else. However, just got a hunch on both games.

Anyone else have an opinion on these two(or one or the other) NCAA football games? I ask because I'm not in the "loop" as live in Asia so my hunches may be a bunch of sushi and noodles topped off with a massage and nothing more......

"Substantial" means more than half my "net worth" or call it a lifeboat if you must....

Current lines:

FSU - 22points
Georgia - 2 1/2 (this game is on a neutral field, Jacksonville, Florida, with each school getting apx half the tickets)
DeMango
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October 28th, 2013 at 4:46:26 AM permalink
Don't think Miami is that bad or Florida that good. Bad year for the REAL Florida teams except UCF. (I consider Tallahassee to be in south west Alabama)
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
beachbumbabs
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October 28th, 2013 at 7:01:57 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Don't think Miami is that bad or Florida that good. Bad year for the REAL Florida teams except UCF. (I consider Tallahassee to be in south west Alabama)



I would agree with DeMango; I think it will be closer than that. But I also wouldn't bet 1/2 my worldly assets on my opinion.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
LarryS
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October 28th, 2013 at 9:17:49 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Thinking about substantial wager on both of these games. I come from Florida, so know something about the hype aspects but not much else. However, just got a hunch on both games.

Anyone else have an opinion on these two(or one or the other) NCAA football games? I ask because I'm not in the "loop" as live in Asia so my hunches may be a bunch of sushi and noodles topped off with a massage and nothing more......

"Substantial" means more than half my "net worth" or call it a lifeboat if you must....

Current lines:

FSU - 22points
Georgia - 2 1/2 (this game is on a neutral field, Jacksonville, Florida, with each school getting apx half the tickets)




It seems you have a "hunch" and want us to do the research for you. It doesnt work that way. Why not do your due diligence if you want to make a substantial wager and then discuss your findings with others who have also researched the game.

I would never make a substantial bet based on a hunch and a follow up comment by anonymous people on a board
Sabretom2
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October 28th, 2013 at 9:46:31 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Don't think Miami is that bad or Florida that good. Bad year for the REAL Florida teams except UCF. (I consider Tallahassee to be in south west Alabama)



Actually, that would be SW Georgia or SE Alabama.

I'm taking Miami and the points, can't resist a spread that large. I'm staying as far away from the Georgia / Florida game as I can get.
LarryS
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October 28th, 2013 at 10:34:16 AM permalink
the last 2 games, Miami has played lesser teams that they should handle..and needed to pull out a win in the last seconds.

If they get off to a bad start this week, there will not make it up at the end.

I dont know if they play down to the level of the competition, and just turn it on when needed....or that they are playing all out and are just not good enough to put weaker teams away.

If its the later..then this week they will be exposed.


I am not going to guess on this., this game is not for me as far as laying out money.
DeMango
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October 28th, 2013 at 1:51:57 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Actually, that would be SW Georgia or SE Alabama.



True! And Louisiana has "Florida Parishes" Some drunk Spaniard 400-500 years ago is responsible!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
NokTang
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October 29th, 2013 at 3:16:57 AM permalink
Quote: LarryS

It seems you have a "hunch" and want us to do the research for you. It doesnt work that way. Why not do your due diligence if you want to make a substantial wager and then discuss your findings with others who have also researched the game.

I would never make a substantial bet based on a hunch and a follow up comment by anonymous people on a board



There seems to be some confusion on your part. As you have said you are from or at least live near Reno/Northern Ca. we don't expect you to know the most important variable these two games have.

Georgia hates Florida. I'm not sure of the reason, but they hate them.

FSU hates Miami. They would cheer for Cuba if Cuba was playing Miami.

Miami hates FSU. Miami fans and team would cheer for Mexico or Alabama if they were playing FSU.

Florida doesn't "hate" Georgia but likes to win that game.

None of these things have anything to do with "research" of statistics such as points allowed and rushing averages etc.. Hate is an element one can't factor in very well. That's why I asked.
Sabretom2
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October 29th, 2013 at 3:55:24 AM permalink
College and pro football seem to be two totally different sports. All the proper number crunching and due diligence in college football still boils down to "whatcha think?", "how ya feel?". I happen to enjoy it, few can make a living on it. Bet small, watch, enjoy. I know of only one word to characterize a huge bet on a college football game, stupid.
1arrowheaddr
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October 29th, 2013 at 6:16:07 AM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

College and pro football seem to be two totally different sports. All the proper number crunching and due diligence in college football still boils down to "whatcha think?", "how ya feel?". I happen to enjoy it, few can make a living on it. Bet small, watch, enjoy. I know of only one word to characterize a huge bet on a college football game, stupid.



I disagree, college football is much easier to beat. I think the number one reason is that the book is required to line many more games each week.
1arrowheaddr
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October 29th, 2013 at 6:17:51 AM permalink
At the Golden Nugget before the season the spread was Florida State -7. In the LVH look ahead last week it was Florida State -14 and now the spread is 21.5. I think you should look toward Miami due to line value as the time to bet Florida State has likely passed.
Sabretom2
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October 29th, 2013 at 6:38:08 AM permalink
Gurley is listed as probable. 21 looks about right. I think I'll stay away from anything in Florida.
Nostron
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October 29th, 2013 at 6:58:32 AM permalink
FSU could easily beat them 42-14 - but thats just too many points in a rivalry game. Might tease it down some if I find another game.

UGA/FLA is a crap shoot - who knows who is showing up for either side in that one - stay far away.

BTW - I can promise you Fla fans despise UGA - some of the older ones who remember the Vince Dooley years hate them more than the Noles.
DeMango
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October 29th, 2013 at 2:13:08 PM permalink
Changed my mind. Read that FSU is in trouble, BCS wise and needs to run up the score. Hold your nose and bet FSU. JMHO of course.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
NokTang
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November 1st, 2013 at 7:55:40 PM permalink
Meanwhile....the line seems to have moved...

FSU now only 21 point favorites...

Georgia a solid 3 point favorite...

For those in the balcony tossing peanut shells down on us professionals in the good seats, this means money coming in on Miami and Georgia. The move to 3 points from 2 1/2 is very substantial. It leaves the gambler in a lurch, unable to make a decision, questioning his/her wit, charm, and girth.
LarryS
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November 1st, 2013 at 9:49:26 PM permalink
interesting scenario

fla st needs to power thru its remaining opponents in order to have a chance to leapfrog oregon. So like ohio st they know they need to run up the score.

easier said than done, as these kids know each other inside out...many have played against each other in high school

miami has had trouble scoring against supposedly weaker teams making one wonder if they are a legit top 10 team.

Personalyl I am staying away because I am leaning toward fla st and I never give that kind of wood...If i could find a reason to like Miami, I would be all over this game.
NokTang
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November 2nd, 2013 at 12:25:14 AM permalink
Quote: LarryS

..If i could find a reason to like Miami, I would be all over this game.



As I posted, they hate F.S.U., more so of course when Bobby Bowden was at the helm. Both schools are known for cheating recruitment wise, cash and the rest of it. Deion Sanders never went to class. Four years, not one class attended. Miami is coming off probation so depth is a question mark. I've not seen either play. I'll go check, but without checking if it's a night game that would favor Miami. You might also check how many players are from the Miami area, on Miami. Speed is a factor, Miami used to always be fast and black, dark black, but again, I don't know enough this year. These are all questions I would know if I lived in Florida but I don't, I only have the internet.
NokTang
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November 2nd, 2013 at 12:40:56 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

I'll go check, but without checking if it's a night game that would favor Miami. .



It's a night game. 8pm E.S.T.. A quick review searching yielded another important aspect. The F.S.U. quarterback likes to throw deep. That's again not as "easy" at night.
LarryS
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Sabretom2
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November 2nd, 2013 at 10:03:33 AM permalink
You too,huh.
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