Poll

1 vote (4%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (4%)
1 vote (4%)
3 votes (12%)
2 votes (8%)
1 vote (4%)
4 votes (16%)
2 votes (8%)
10 votes (40%)

25 members have voted

Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 12840
October 8th, 2013 at 7:59:59 AM permalink
I'm going to preface this by saying, "No bet," but I think Manning throws more than four TD's. I think he's going to go for the record this year, and this is a game where he really needs to light up the scoreboard.
Vultures can't be choosers.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 99
  • Posts: 14230
October 8th, 2013 at 8:52:59 AM permalink
I agree, Mission. And I think Tony Romo going 500+ yards and, without the interception, winning the game this week is going to lead Denver to push it all the way and the heck with a mercy 4th quarter.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1344
  • Posts: 22250
October 8th, 2013 at 2:44:39 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

If nothing out of the ordinary occurs in this game, then I'd argue there's a 0% chance the jaguars win.



Maybe something out of the ordinary will happen.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1344
  • Posts: 22250
October 8th, 2013 at 3:16:56 PM permalink
I see that 5dimes has money lines as follows:

Jack.: +3000
Denver: -7000

That may seem like a wide spread, with a high house edge. However, if we assume the house edge is the same on both sides, it isn't that bad.

First let me define two variables to stand for the winning odds on a "for one" basis. In this case:

j=31
d=71/70 = 1.0142857.

The estimated probability of Jack winning is d/(d+j) = 0.0317.
The estimated probability of Denver winning is j/(d+j) = 0.968318.

Let's calculate the expected return on both sides.

Jack: 0.031682 * 31 - 1 = -0.017849
Denver: 0.968318 * 1.0142857 - 1 = -0.017849

So, both sides have a house edge of 1.78%. That is much less than the 4.54% of betting against the spread.

Of course, that is no guarantee that the house edge on any single side is 1.78%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7004
October 8th, 2013 at 3:47:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I see that 5dimes has money lines as follows:

Jack.: +3000
Denver: -7000

That may seem like a wide spread, with a high house edge. However, if we assume the house edge is the same on both sides, it isn't that bad.

First let me define two variables to stand for the winning odds on a "for one" basis. In this case:

j=31
d=71/70 = 1.0142857.

The estimated probability of Jack winning is d/(d+j) = 0.0317.
The estimated probability of Denver winning is j/(d+j) = 0.968318.

Let's calculate the expected return on both sides.

Jack: 0.031682 * 31 - 1 = -0.017849
Denver: 0.968318 * 1.0142857 - 1 = -0.017849

So, both sides have a house edge of 1.78%. That is much less than the 4.54% of betting against the spread.

Of course, that is no guarantee that the house edge on any single side is 1.78%.



Explain to me what is wrong with my thinking....
One way the line is 70-1, the other way 30-1.

Thus the fair line is around 50-1.
Thus the bookies estimate that Jags win 2% of the time, and Denver 98%.

So $1000 bet on Jags should fairly pay $50,000 but only pays 30,000
So $1000 bet on Broncs should fairly pay $1020, but only pays $1015

Looks like quite a bit higher than 1.78%, closer to 30 or 40% to me....
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1344
  • Posts: 22250
October 8th, 2013 at 3:56:30 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Thus the fair line is around 50-1.



The rule of thumb of moving the money lines the same number of points from the fair line is not true for significantly lopsided games.

According to my fair probability of Jack winning of 1.78%, the fair money lines are +/- 3056.

So, getting 30 to 1, when 30.56 to 1 is fair, is obviously close to fair.

While laying 70 to 1 may look like an awful bet, you at least get your money back 96.83% of the time.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2112
October 8th, 2013 at 5:12:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Maybe something out of the ordinary will happen.



It very well might.

Last night the Jets won outright as a 10 point, -400 ML dog. And the out of the ordinary occurrence in my opinion, was Geno Smith outplaying Matt Ryan.
Sometimes it doesn't take a whole lot to turn the tide. We aren't dealing with a ball dropping into a wheel, we are dealing with people, and just like with
Horse racing...ya never know. Anyone can have a bad day...or an overly good day.
LarryS
LarryS
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
October 9th, 2013 at 6:16:54 PM permalink
smith didnt outplay ryan. The jets defense outplayed atlantas offense against the run...stuffing them many times..especilly on the last running plan of the frst half

the jets coaching outcoached atlantas coaching...especially on the last plays of the first half which came back t bite them in the but at the end of the game
Pokeraddict
Pokeraddict
Joined: Feb 21, 2012
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 786
October 9th, 2013 at 7:49:56 PM permalink
The line on the Jets/Falcons spread was clearly based on last year. The Falcons are a bad team with virtually no defense. The Falcons are on the same tier as the Panthers, Cardinals, Dolphins and Ravens. Hardly comparable to the Broncos.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1344
  • Posts: 22250
October 10th, 2013 at 10:50:46 AM permalink
It is easy to laugh at the Jaguars, but let's not forget about the NY Giants. In term of net points this year the Jaguars are last at -112, but the New York Giants are not far behind at -100.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

  • Jump to: