## Poll

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**25 members have voted**

Quote:michael99000If nothing out of the ordinary occurs in this game, then I'd argue there's a 0% chance the jaguars win.

Maybe something out of the ordinary will happen.

Jack.: +3000

Denver: -7000

That may seem like a wide spread, with a high house edge. However, if we assume the house edge is the same on both sides, it isn't that bad.

First let me define two variables to stand for the winning odds on a "for one" basis. In this case:

j=31

d=71/70 = 1.0142857.

The estimated probability of Jack winning is d/(d+j) = 0.0317.

The estimated probability of Denver winning is j/(d+j) = 0.968318.

Let's calculate the expected return on both sides.

Jack: 0.031682 * 31 - 1 = -0.017849

Denver: 0.968318 * 1.0142857 - 1 = -0.017849

So, both sides have a house edge of 1.78%. That is much less than the 4.54% of betting against the spread.

Of course, that is no guarantee that the house edge on any single side is 1.78%.

Quote:WizardI see that 5dimes has money lines as follows:

Jack.: +3000

Denver: -7000

That may seem like a wide spread, with a high house edge. However, if we assume the house edge is the same on both sides, it isn't that bad.

First let me define two variables to stand for the winning odds on a "for one" basis. In this case:

j=31

d=71/70 = 1.0142857.

The estimated probability of Jack winning is d/(d+j) = 0.0317.

The estimated probability of Denver winning is j/(d+j) = 0.968318.

Let's calculate the expected return on both sides.

Jack: 0.031682 * 31 - 1 = -0.017849

Denver: 0.968318 * 1.0142857 - 1 = -0.017849

So, both sides have a house edge of 1.78%. That is much less than the 4.54% of betting against the spread.

Of course, that is no guarantee that the house edge on any single side is 1.78%.

Explain to me what is wrong with my thinking....

One way the line is 70-1, the other way 30-1.

Thus the fair line is around 50-1.

Thus the bookies estimate that Jags win 2% of the time, and Denver 98%.

So $1000 bet on Jags should fairly pay $50,000 but only pays 30,000

So $1000 bet on Broncs should fairly pay $1020, but only pays $1015

Looks like quite a bit higher than 1.78%, closer to 30 or 40% to me....

Quote:SOOPOOThus the fair line is around 50-1.

The rule of thumb of moving the money lines the same number of points from the fair line is not true for significantly lopsided games.

According to my fair probability of Jack winning of 1.78%, the fair money lines are +/- 3056.

So, getting 30 to 1, when 30.56 to 1 is fair, is obviously close to fair.

While laying 70 to 1 may look like an awful bet, you at least get your money back 96.83% of the time.

Quote:WizardMaybe something out of the ordinary will happen.

It very well might.

Last night the Jets won outright as a 10 point, -400 ML dog. And the out of the ordinary occurrence in my opinion, was Geno Smith outplaying Matt Ryan.

Sometimes it doesn't take a whole lot to turn the tide. We aren't dealing with a ball dropping into a wheel, we are dealing with people, and just like with

Horse racing...ya never know. Anyone can have a bad day...or an overly good day.

the jets coaching outcoached atlantas coaching...especially on the last plays of the first half which came back t bite them in the but at the end of the game