Half Point Parlay Cards
October 17th, 2014 at 5:09:53 PM
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Quote: Wizard
Rampart took only two cards this time. William Hill didn't like it when I picked college games with a significant line movement and rejected quite a few. Unlike most places, they did't cut me off at the first one they didn't like, but cherry picked through my whole stack. I first had SOOPOO try to put ten and eight got rejected, for too many college games. Then I redid mine, to not be so greedy, and they took about 75% of them.
Mike, is this frequent rejection a result of you being known (you are a fairly public figure), or is this common practice? It doesn't seem like the levels are such, that it should be a problem (unless you have dramatically bumped up your wagering levels after your significant recent payday, which I doubt you would do).
Why not just spread your play around a little more?
October 17th, 2014 at 6:28:12 PM
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Quote: kewljMike, is this frequent rejection a result of you being known (you are a fairly public figure), or is this common practice? It doesn't seem like the levels are such, that it should be a problem (unless you have dramatically bumped up your wagering levels after your significant recent payday, which I doubt you would do).
Why not just spread your play around a little more?
It has nothing to do with me. Everywhere I bet are franchises where the actual bets are authorized elsewhere. What happens is the cashier runs the tickets through machine and somebody somewhere sees what you're betting and approves or denies it. What is unknown is whether they have access to cameras to see who is making the bet. This might come into play downtown, for example. If you get denied at the William Hill at the Four queens then go across the street to the one at Binion's.
In my case it isn't worth my bother to drive all over down to get more tickets in.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 18th, 2014 at 9:49:31 AM
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I got a few dozen cards through today, though at $10 a pop. Some waiting, no rejections. Nothing torn in half.
It looks like Virginia was a fake out play, as they are now +3.5 and touched +4. I took Duke -2.5 at Boyd. Here's hoping for 3!
Boyd was not taking Alabama, Mich St. or BYU. Will hill took them all. MSU doesn't seem that great, having gone from 14.5 to 16.5. But the games they take off don't always make a ton of sense. Boyd also took off the Lions/Saints game, due to injuries that have had little to no effect on the line.
Some other college: North Carolina +2.5 (-1 ATM), SJSU -1.5 (-3). Boyd has the Rams +7.5.
It looks like Virginia was a fake out play, as they are now +3.5 and touched +4. I took Duke -2.5 at Boyd. Here's hoping for 3!
Boyd was not taking Alabama, Mich St. or BYU. Will hill took them all. MSU doesn't seem that great, having gone from 14.5 to 16.5. But the games they take off don't always make a ton of sense. Boyd also took off the Lions/Saints game, due to injuries that have had little to no effect on the line.
Some other college: North Carolina +2.5 (-1 ATM), SJSU -1.5 (-3). Boyd has the Rams +7.5.
October 19th, 2014 at 6:28:53 AM
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Saturday was not good for me. Nine cards are dead and three are left standing with 4-6 NFL games to go.
Big card killers:
Virginia +3.5
BYU -9.5
Minnesota -12.5
Big card killers:
Virginia +3.5
BYU -9.5
Minnesota -12.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 19th, 2014 at 8:03:22 AM
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Quote: kewljMike, is this frequent rejection a result of you being known (you are a fairly public figure), or is this common practice? It doesn't seem like the levels are such, that it should be a problem (unless you have dramatically bumped up your wagering levels after your significant recent payday, which I doubt you would do).
Why not just spread your play around a little more?
I went alone to the window, and I am not known anywhere! The teller told me that 'if you have too many of the games where the line has been a "big mover" then they will reject them. I can't remember where, but during this trip I saw a sign SPECIFICALLY stating that no cards including 3 specific games will be accepted. I find that an acceptable business practice, while rejecting some cards on a not disclosed formula to be poor business and customer service.
October 19th, 2014 at 8:20:50 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOI find that an acceptable business practice, while rejecting some cards on a not disclosed formula to be poor business and customer service.
I agree. If there is a huge line movement, then it seems fair to take those games off the cards. However, if you do, just tell the players which games they are. Don't waste everybody's time with a guessing game.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 19th, 2014 at 10:06:14 AM
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Cantor at Cosmo has a list of games on the board that cannot be used on cards.
October 19th, 2014 at 1:16:53 PM
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Some weeks I like to blame one team for ruining all my cards, but not week 7. Losers all over the place. I don't think I even picked 25% winners this time.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 19th, 2014 at 1:31:06 PM
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Quote: WizardSome weeks I like to blame one team for ruining all my cards, but not week 7. Losers all over the place. I don't think I even picked 25% winners this time.
So, you are saying that you are a big loser???....(well at least for this weekend). :)
October 19th, 2014 at 4:43:59 PM
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I've got 3 five teamers still alive, out of about 40-50 cards. I need the Broncos -6.5 and Texans +3.5 on all of them.
So far, I'd say I was 50% this week, but Stanford, BYU, the Falcons and The Panthers did a lot of damage. Had the Giants on a few Sunday morning cards, as they went from +6.5 to +4.5, though they closed at +5. That hurt too.
It's somewhat tricky to spread the sides evenly across the cards when frantically filling them out before kickoff.
So far, I'd say I was 50% this week, but Stanford, BYU, the Falcons and The Panthers did a lot of damage. Had the Giants on a few Sunday morning cards, as they went from +6.5 to +4.5, though they closed at +5. That hurt too.
It's somewhat tricky to spread the sides evenly across the cards when frantically filling them out before kickoff.
October 19th, 2014 at 5:35:19 PM
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Quote: WizardI agree. If there is a huge line movement, then it seems fair to take those games off the cards. However, if you do, just tell the players which games they are. Don't waste everybody's time with a guessing game.
I disagree, to an extent. If they are completely taking the games off the board, then yes, just say so. I don't think that's what WH does though. It seems to me like they will at least let you try on a player by player, card by card basis. I'd rather get some cards in than none.
I certainly prefer it to just taking a few games down. Or, in the case of CET, taking eight or more down... on top of their crappy payouts.
October 23rd, 2014 at 9:27:13 PM
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Here are four week 8 cards. As usual, click on an image for a larger version.
The South Point casinos took down the Texans game. William Hill did not. I didn't pick any college this week, after being rebuffed last week, and my many cards flew right through at William Hill.
I have Denver -7.5 on almost all my cards, because they were -9.5 off the board at the time I put the cards in. One step closer to victory.
The South Point casinos took down the Texans game. William Hill did not. I didn't pick any college this week, after being rebuffed last week, and my many cards flew right through at William Hill.
I have Denver -7.5 on almost all my cards, because they were -9.5 off the board at the time I put the cards in. One step closer to victory.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 23rd, 2014 at 10:05:44 PM
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FWIW, here is the Station card (sorry for the size):
I count 5 favs circled on that S.Point card. The Bengals/Ravens line has moved some.
I count 5 favs circled on that S.Point card. The Bengals/Ravens line has moved some.
October 23rd, 2014 at 10:25:45 PM
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Stations only pays 22.5 for 1 on their 5-teamer.
October 29th, 2014 at 7:18:15 AM
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Week 8 was a total loser. Jets -2.5 was on almost every card. The one or two it wasn't had at least one other loser.
At least I had Redskins money line at +400.
At least I had Redskins money line at +400.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 30th, 2014 at 10:50:16 PM
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It's not looking like a good week. Just checked vegas insider and there were only 2 games at -3 and none at -7. I skipped last week might have to do it again this week.
October 30th, 2014 at 11:03:12 PM
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Here are the cards for week 9 at Willilam Hill and the Golden Nugget. Here are my hot picks based on the WH card:
Saints -2.5 (Now you tell me)
Ravens +0.5
Redskins +2.5
Patriots +3.5
NYG +3.5
Dolphins -0.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 31st, 2014 at 4:21:39 PM
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Here is a scan of the South Point card for week 9.
Unfortunately, the Coast/Boyd casinos have depressed their pays to no longer be competitive. For example, the pick 5 was reduced from 25 to 22.
Unfortunately, the Coast/Boyd casinos have depressed their pays to no longer be competitive. For example, the pick 5 was reduced from 25 to 22.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 31st, 2014 at 8:31:45 PM
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Quote: Wizard
Unfortunately, the Coast/Boyd casinos have depressed their pays to no longer be competitive. For example, the pick 5 was reduced from 25 to 22.
Is that legal? I mean in a serious way, are the casinos not legally bound by the gaming commission to have minimum payouts on parlay cards? It just seems unfair to the unknowing "general public". I guess I'm answering my own question, they can do what they want to as long as disclosed? It reminds me of a cruise ship with craps and "bar 3" on the don't pass. If it's not illegal, it should be, or at the least a charge of "impersonating a casino" needs to be put on the books.
October 31st, 2014 at 8:39:24 PM
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Quote: NokTangIs that legal? I mean in a serious way, are the casinos not legally bound by the gaming commission to have minimum payouts on parlay cards? It just seems unfair to the unknowing "general public". I guess I'm answering my own question, they can do what they want to as long as disclosed? It reminds me of a cruise ship with craps and "bar 3" on the don't pass. If it's not illegal, it should be, or at the least a charge of "impersonating a casino" needs to be put on the books.
The cards say right on the back what they pay, so it isn't like they are hiding anything. I don't think the minimum 75% return rule applies to sports betting.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 2nd, 2014 at 5:26:46 PM
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Week 9 was another blow out. Redskins +2.5 was a huge card killer -- by one point.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 2nd, 2014 at 10:14:14 PM
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Yeah, the skins killed a lot of my cards too.
I still had a couple alive going into tonight, with a chance to win $2,100. Took Ravens +.5 when that looked like a good bet.
By blowing a 27 point lead against the browns, getting a fluke win against Texas when they scored something like 17 points in 80 seconds and by winning tonight, the Steelers have prevented me from cashing almost $8,000 in tickets. A nice chunk for me. Hopefully they can atone before the season is over.
I still had a couple alive going into tonight, with a chance to win $2,100. Took Ravens +.5 when that looked like a good bet.
By blowing a 27 point lead against the browns, getting a fluke win against Texas when they scored something like 17 points in 80 seconds and by winning tonight, the Steelers have prevented me from cashing almost $8,000 in tickets. A nice chunk for me. Hopefully they can atone before the season is over.
November 7th, 2014 at 6:31:44 PM
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Does anyone have a william hill card for this week to post?
November 8th, 2014 at 12:48:48 AM
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Quote: z2newtonDoes anyone have a william hill card for this week to post?
Here you go -- week 10 William Hill.
Good plays:
Saints -4.5 (-5.5 market)
StL +7.5 (+6.5 market)
Chic +7.5 (+7 -105 market)
NYJ +5.5 (+3.5 market)
NYG +9.5 (+8.5 market)
Phil -6.5 (-7 ev market)
Dal -6.5 (-7 market)
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 8th, 2014 at 9:28:57 AM
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Thanks wizard!
November 9th, 2014 at 8:51:07 AM
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On all of those, plus these late movers.
Atlanta -1.5 (-3 market)
Bills +1.5 (-1.5 Market)
It looks like a pretty juicy week. Though the market prices on Chicago and the Giants now match those on the cards.
Atlanta -1.5 (-3 market)
Bills +1.5 (-1.5 Market)
It looks like a pretty juicy week. Though the market prices on Chicago and the Giants now match those on the cards.
November 9th, 2014 at 3:28:57 PM
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Saints -4.5 killed 16 cards and 4 are still standing. At least I had SF on the money line.
The remaining cards are looking good in the 3rd quarter of the 1:00 games (PST). They may all rest on Bears +7.5.
Update: The demise of the Giants is going to kill three more cards.
The remaining cards are looking good in the 3rd quarter of the 1:00 games (PST). They may all rest on Bears +7.5.
Update: The demise of the Giants is going to kill three more cards.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 9th, 2014 at 11:22:48 PM
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Another 0fer. At least it will be a stress free monday night.
November 10th, 2014 at 5:54:34 AM
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Quote: RigondeauxAnother 0fer. At least it will be a stress free monday night.
That's a good way to look at it!
November 10th, 2014 at 6:44:48 AM
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Big zero for me too.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 10th, 2014 at 7:18:46 PM
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Assuming PHI covers the 6.5 I will realize a 400% profit this week :) (it's 31-7 at halftime)
Vote for Nobody 2020!
November 14th, 2014 at 7:13:35 PM
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Quote: bigfoot66Assuming PHI covers the 6.5 I will realize a 400% profit this week :) (it's 31-7 at halftime)
Congratulations!
Here are the week 11 cards for William Hill and the Golden Nugget.
Click the image for a larger version. Sorry it is so unclear. Maybe I need a new scanner.
Wizard plays:
Bears -2.5 (-3 -105 market)
Raiders +10.5 (+10 market)
Saints -6.5 (-7 market)
Giants +4.5 (+4 market)
Colts -2.5 (-3 market)
Eagles +6.5 (+5 market)
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 16th, 2014 at 8:05:57 PM
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Week 11 was a big fat zero for me.
2014 season to date:
Bets made = $8,665
Money returned = $12,500
Return on investment = +44%.
2014 season to date:
Bets made = $8,665
Money returned = $12,500
Return on investment = +44%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 16th, 2014 at 8:41:01 PM
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Quote: WizardWeek 11 was a big fat zero for me.
2014 season to date:
Bets made = $8,665
Money returned = $12,500
Return on investment = +44%.
That's damn good Wizard Walters, I am at a slim +2%
November 17th, 2014 at 11:22:08 AM
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Quote: WizardWeek 11 was a big fat zero for me.
It started off looking like it was going to be a great week.
November 21st, 2014 at 11:56:50 AM
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Here is the week 12 William Hill card:
The Bills game is not allowed.
Wizard picks:
Browns +3.5
Colts -13.5
NYG +3.5
Lions +7.5
Seahawks -6.5
Ravens +3.5
Dolphins +7.5
The Bills game is not allowed.
Wizard picks:
Browns +3.5
Colts -13.5
NYG +3.5
Lions +7.5
Seahawks -6.5
Ravens +3.5
Dolphins +7.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 21st, 2014 at 12:14:59 PM
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Are they taking action on the Jets plus 4.5? I don't think the Bills should even be favored..... Lost home field advantage...... Lost best cornerback..... quarterback showed true colors last two weeks...... lost best running back again.....
But most importantly...... NO PRACTICE this week..... I think fair line should be pick'em at best....
By the way, for those that don't know Buffalo and its suburbs..... I have gotten a dusting of snow where I live..... and 10 miles south of me they have 7 feet...... It's beautiful and sunny here and a blizzard in the southtowns, as they are referred to. Orchard Park, where the stadium is, is in a 'south town'
But most importantly...... NO PRACTICE this week..... I think fair line should be pick'em at best....
By the way, for those that don't know Buffalo and its suburbs..... I have gotten a dusting of snow where I live..... and 10 miles south of me they have 7 feet...... It's beautiful and sunny here and a blizzard in the southtowns, as they are referred to. Orchard Park, where the stadium is, is in a 'south town'
November 21st, 2014 at 1:26:27 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOAre they taking action on the Jets plus 4.5?
That game is still off the board. At least where I looked this morning here in Vegas. They will probably set a new line soon.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 22nd, 2014 at 11:35:33 PM
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Buffalo -2.5 at most places now.
Now I'm definitely no expert, but it seems that almost every game is off by half a point at least. Could be a big week for these, good luck. That NYG game moved against that earlier pick for anyone blindly following those earlier picks. :)
Now I'm definitely no expert, but it seems that almost every game is off by half a point at least. Could be a big week for these, good luck. That NYG game moved against that earlier pick for anyone blindly following those earlier picks. :)
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
November 23rd, 2014 at 4:13:36 PM
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Lions +7.5 killed 16 cards. Five are still in play.
Hopefully Mia +7.5 will hold up (1:34 left to go). If so, I'll still need Bal +3.5 and NYG +3.5 on the last five cards.
p.s. Two tickets need the Ravens only. Somebody tell me not to hedge.
Hopefully Mia +7.5 will hold up (1:34 left to go). If so, I'll still need Bal +3.5 and NYG +3.5 on the last five cards.
p.s. Two tickets need the Ravens only. Somebody tell me not to hedge.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 23rd, 2014 at 5:01:07 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOAre they taking action on the Jets plus 4.5? '
Stupid Lions!!! William Hill was taking Jets at +4.5 on friday for the parley cards which surprised me.
November 23rd, 2014 at 8:55:02 PM
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I've got five tickets for $7,500 depending on Ravens +3.5. My team, by the way. I'm tempted to hedge. Somebody talk some sense into me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 23rd, 2014 at 9:11:14 PM
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Did you have some teams that the lines moved and was no longer good value but won anyway?Quote: WizardI've got five tickets for $7,500 depending on Ravens +3.5. My team, by the way. I'm tempted to hedge. Somebody talk some sense into me.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 23rd, 2014 at 9:28:26 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfDid you have some teams that the lines moved and was no longer good value but won anyway?
I don't know.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 23rd, 2014 at 9:35:40 PM
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If you're going to hedge, you should ask yourself why you didn't take fewer teams per parlay card. Instead of taking five, just take four if you know ahead of time you would hedge the fifth team, if you won the first four.
November 23rd, 2014 at 10:45:02 PM
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Don't hedge. The Ravens are going to beat the spread. Books everywhere are dreading that game, because they're going to get killed. Besides, I have the Ravens at +3.5 also. :)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
November 24th, 2014 at 5:06:48 AM
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Quote: FroggerIf you're going to hedge, you should ask yourself why you didn't take fewer teams per parlay card. Instead of taking five, just take four if you know ahead of time you would hedge the fifth team, if you won the first four.
I think there is about a 54% chance of hitting each leg.
The expected return with 4 legs is 13*0.54^4=1.1054.
The expected return with 5 legs is 25*0.54^5=1.1479.
The expected return with 6 legs is 50*0.54^6=1.2397.
The expected return with 7 legs is 100*0.54^7=1.3389.
So, I like to do a mixture of 5 to 7 picks. Of my tickets still alive four are five-teamers and one one is six.
BTW, all my tickets would either have won already or been hanging on just the Ravens had the Lions covered.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 24th, 2014 at 3:33:00 PM
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I got in on Friday at WH with Jets + 4.5. Any word if those will be treated as no action now for the cards that have it?
November 24th, 2014 at 3:42:27 PM
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Quote: tooncestdcI got in on Friday at WH with Jets + 4.5. Any word if those will be treated as no action now for the cards that have it?
Good question. Somebody wrote something earlier about it being voided if there was a chance in date, but he may have meant straight bets only. There is nothing on the back of my William Hill tickets that addresses any exceptions.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 24th, 2014 at 8:26:55 PM
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HAH! Hope you didn't hedge! Good job, Baltimore! Good job, Steve Smith!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
