Half Point Parlay Cards
Quote: rudeboyoiOn my last leg of two tickets: lions -5.5
I had:
Lions -5.5, Redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, steelers +3.5, jets +11.5
Lions -5.5, Redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, steelers +3.5, bears +.5
The difference in the fair line and the line I got turned a push into a win on jets +11.5.
if the point you are makiing is that there will be times throughout the year where the point differential fromthe board helps you...I agree
and I also say there are times where you chase a point differential on a bogus original line where the point differential is meaningless.
and there are times where you may be more confident on 2 teams but feel forced to take a 3rd team in order to get action on a card...with poor results.
For me, and for me only...I feel the lesser payout on a card vs the board, and the flexibility to do 2 teamers and flat bets.....tells me hands down for me, geting an extra point or 2 here and there is not worth it.
Quote: LarrySif the point you are makiing is that there will be times throughout the year where the point differential fromthe board helps you...I agree
and I also say there are times where you chase a point differential on a bogus original line where the point differential is meaningless.
and there are times where you may be more confident on 2 teams but feel forced to take a 3rd team in order to get action on a card...with poor results.
For me, and for me only...I feel the lesser payout on a card vs the board, and the flexibility to do 2 teamers and flat bets.....tells me hands down for me, getting an extra point or 2 here and there is not worth it.
The numbers from the Wizard's analysis say that it is worth it, though. He shows that getting an extra half-point gives you enough of an edge to make the parlay cards profitable, even if you just take any game where you can get the half-point (ie, don't base it on any football knowledge at all).
Quote: LarrySFor me, and for me only...I feel the lesser payout on a card vs the board, and the flexibility to do 2 teamers and flat bets.....tells me hands down for me, geting an extra point or 2 here and there is not worth it.
Speaking only for myself, I prefer to bet based on data rather than feeling.
acting on point differentials on a possible inaccurate number to begin with
forced to bet 3 teams at a time minimum
receiving less payout
are better off than
people who bet off the board seeking to recognize innaccurate numbers and not betting based on point differentials on a ticket
with a higher payout
being able to bet flat and 2 teamers
being able to mix my 2 best FB picks for a sunday with my best hovkey pick..great flexibility. Or my best hockey pick on Sat(full slate of games) with my best pcik of NBA for sat(sull slate of games) along with my best pick for NFL on sun.
I do know that the most successful winners in sports, the one making 6 and 7 figures are not dicking around with half point parlay cards. The sharp money people, when they see a line that they think is off...they will jump on it asap.....they dont say "let me wait and see what the thursday parlay cards have to say.
In my opinion its very rare for someone to find 3 games on the same day in the same sport that they have equally high confidence on all three. And there is the rub. Having to bet 3 games from the same sport with most of the games on the same day.....there has to be a layering of confidence for picks 1 2 and 3..
this is of cpurse in response to those people who say with no exception it never better to bet off the board
Quote: LarrySI do know that the most successful winners in sports, the one making 6 and 7 figures are not dicking around with half point parlay cards.
If I had as much money as Billy Walters, I wouldn't either. However, if he could get six-figure bets down on parlay cards I'd bet he would be all over them too.
Quote: WizardIf I had as much money as Billy Walters, I wouldn't either. However, if he could get six-figure bets down on parlay cards I'd bet he would be all over them too.
How have you been doing this season so far Wizard? I see you have hit quite a few tough breaks but did have one nice week. Did that make up for the near misses?
Quote: WizardIf I had as much money as Billy Walters, I wouldn't either. However, if he could get six-figure bets down on parlay cards I'd bet he would be all over them too.
the question can be posed...does Walters have all that money and now has too much to be bothered with half point parlay cards.....or does walters have all that money because he has stayed away from half point parlay cards.
the advice to never bet off the board....is that just for poor folk.....and millionaires are better off ignoring that?
or people with limited funds should bet 3 team parlays, and millionairs are better off betting flat off the board?
I would think that there must be one best way of gambling sports no matter the economic strata. There has to be a best way of winning in the long run.
So is it betting flat like the millionaires...or betting 3 team parlay cards with the rest?
The Wizard simply exposed a system, that seems to work mathematically for people who have no clue about sports betting. If you don't think sharp, wealthy sports bettors were betting theses parlays in the past, when you could get down tons of cash, you would be wrong. Smart sports bettors use every angle they can get. Its way more difficult to get down a lot of cash nowadays.Quote: LarrySthe question can be posed...does Walters have all that money and now has too much to be bothered with half point parlay cards.....or does walters have all that money because he has stayed away from half point parlay cards.
the advice to never bet off the board....is that just for poor folk.....and millionaires are better off ignoring that?
or people with limited funds should bet 3 team parlays, and millionairs are better off betting flat off the board?
I would think that there must be one best way of gambling sports no matter the economic strata. There has to be a best way of winning in the long run.
So is it betting flat like the millionaires...or betting 3 team parlay cards with the rest?
Quote: AxelWolfThe Wizard simply exposed a system, .
Okay, I'll bite. Where(link) or what was the system(link or post here)? I had always thought of a parlay card wager as being on its own, not dependent on another parlay or the so called "round robin" aspect. Same as any wager which has a house advantage/edge(with the assumption the lines are correct).Thanks in advance.
Quote: AxelWolfIts way more difficult to get down a lot of cash nowadays.
Generally speaking, what is your source or facts which support that claim? I keep reading about million dollar wagers by Floyd Mayweather and Phil Nicholson(the left handed golfer).
Me, Myself and I that's all I need. Also there is this http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/after-20-years-book-director-retiring-walker-learned-say-noQuote: NokTangGenerally speaking, what is your source or facts which support that claim? I keep reading about million dollar wagers by Floyd Mayweather and Phil Nicholson(the left handed golfer).
I know how much I was able to get down on parlays from years past and how much I can get away with now.
I think the wizard said he had a hard time getting in some bets as well. But you already know this.
I assure you the sports books are tightening up on the sharp bettors and taking less money from them. If you want to include FM and PN as a part of the total being bet, I don't know if that would be a fair gauge. That's now how the average sharp is treated
If you reread the thread, there is a good chance that will answer some of your questions.
Mostly I'm talking about the parlays. They back you off, if you have to many key games on multiple cards. This is not a guess, this is a fact. You used to be able to get off thousands per venue, now you lucky to get off hundreds.
Quote: PerditionHow have you been doing this season so far Wizard? I see you have hit quite a few tough breaks but did have one nice week. Did that make up for the near misses?
I've done quite well. Week 12 I hit gold, and that has paid for every other losing week. It also happened three times that I was down to one leg on lots of cards, so hedged, and all three times the hedges won.
Quote: NokTangOkay, I'll bite. Where(link) or what was the system(link or post here)? I had always thought of a parlay card wager as being on its own, not dependent on another parlay or the so called "round robin" aspect. Same as any wager which has a house advantage/edge(with the assumption the lines are correct).Thanks in advance.
The Wizard's report on half-point parlay cards is here.
Basically if you have skill as a handicapper, you don't really need this, as you can find the soft lines off the board and beat them with flat bets.
But if you don't fancy yourself a skillful handicapper (IMO pretty much everyone), then the half-point cards are a pure math play based on the lines moving throughout the weekend, and the fact that some of the lines on the half-point cards have to be soft right from the get-go, if the board number is an integer.
It's a high-variance, all-or-nothing play. As per the Wizard's post just above me, one winning week can pay off the rest of the season. It's totally plausible you could go 17 weeks in the NFL and not win a single card, even playing the correct strategy, Hence, you need to have a big roll to endure not just week-to-week variance, but year-to-year variance. Given the difficult in getting down with these cards, most wise guys with a decent roll are probably under-betting even with the huge variance.
Quote: AcesAndEights
But if you don't fancy yourself a skillful handicapper (IMO pretty much everyone)
+1
Sorry to quote a tiny section of a great post, but I wanted to highlight what you said. I agree 100%.
Many people think they are skillful handicappers, but hardly any of them are. Sports bettors think they are brilliant when they win a game, and unlucky when they lose a game. There are so many random, unpredictable events during the course of a sporting event, I question whether handicapping an outcome is possible on a consistent basis.
11/10 is a freaking beast!
Seriously? How many years dose someone have to win betting sports to convince you?Quote: KeyserSozeI question whether handicapping an outcome is possible on a consistent basis.
Quote: AcesAndEightsThe Wizard's report on half-point parlay cards is here.
Basically if you have skill as a handicapper, you don't really need this, as you can find the soft lines off the board and beat them with flat bets.
But if you don't fancy yourself a skillful handicapper (IMO pretty much everyone), then the half-point cards are a pure math play based on the lines moving throughout the weekend, and the fact that some of the lines on the half-point cards have to be soft right from the get-go, if the board number is an integer. .
ok...thats a fair explanation. Although to be fair...on that season saving week....I dont think one game involved the point differential..and therefore would have paid more off the board.
I still think the advice to never bet parlays off the board is a little over the top. Especially if I have 2 teams that I feel confident betting, I would have to forego betting a 2 teamer, and instead find a 3rd team on a parlay card to follow that rule.
I will just agree to dissagree.
Quote: AxelWolfSeriously? How many years dose someone have to win betting sports to convince you?
The guys (very few) that consistently win money betting sports are not winning due to handicapping, for the most part.
Quote: LarryS
I still think the advice to never bet parlays off the board is a little over the top. Especially if I have 2 teams that I feel confident betting, I would have to forego betting a 2 teamer, and instead find a 3rd team on a parlay card to follow that rule.
Skip the 'off the board' 2 team parlay, and flat bet both games. Lower house edge.
Other than taking advantage of a correlated parlay, I can't think of any reason to bet an 'off the board' parlay.
If you were a bookie, you would love your parlay bettors more than the guys that flat bet only.
Quote: WizardIt also happened three times that I was down to one leg on lots of cards, so hedged, and all three times the hedges won.
Doesn't that break some commandment or something? :)
I'm just kidding with you, of course. It can definitely be correct to take a -EV bet to hedge, sometimes, due to variance considerations.
For the most part your absolutely right. There are people who have documented picks over years and years and have a winning record. Now with the internet and everyone having easy access to all the same information, I guess we will have to see if in 10 more years, guys are still making money.Quote: KeyserSozeThe guys (very few) that consistently win money betting sports are not winning due to handicapping, for the most part.
He already commented on that.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDoesn't that break some commandment or something? :)
I'm just kidding with you, of course. It can definitely be correct to take a -EV bet to hedge, sometimes, due to variance considerations.
Quote: AxelWolfHe already commented on that.
Where? Different thread? I don't see it here. Link?
I was actually just thinking that I would like to see a really good write-up on optimal betting with respect to variance. Grosjean has some good articles about it but I've never seen anything really comprehensive.
Someone already called him out on that, people are always eager to call out well known experts and authorities. I think its the, I got you so, I'm smarter then you type thing....check page 5,6,7 it should be around there. I think he was getting a good price on the hedge so he was hedging with a break even or slight advantage.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhere? Different thread? I don't see it here. Link?
I was actually just thinking that I would like to see a really good write-up on optimal betting with respect to variance. Grosjean has some good articles about it but I've never seen anything really comprehensive.
Quote: AxelWolfSomeone already called him out on that, people are always eager to call out well known experts and authorities. I think its the, I got you so, I'm smarter then you type thing....check page 5,6,7 it should be around there. I think he was getting a good price on the hedge so he was hedging with a break even or slight advantage.
I was not calling him out. As I said, I was kidding, and I believe his play to be correct.
What I would like to see is a really good write-up of WHY it's correct. This is an area that I think is not written about enough. Too many people think only about edge.
I would consider writing something myself but (1) I'm not a great writer and I have this bad habit of getting bogged down in details and making everything too long, and (2) I'd have nowhere to publish it.
Quote: KeyserSozeSkip the 'off the board' 2 team parlay, and flat bet both games. Lower house edge.
Other than taking advantage of a correlated parlay, I can't think of any reason to bet an 'off the board' parlay.
If you were a bookie, you would love your parlay bettors more than the guys that flat bet only.
I think that is good advice. I have been betting sports for 12 years. For the first 8 years I have had a loss each year. Then I changed to flat and 2 teamers....and I have had 6 percent increases over the last 3 years. Nothig to brag about. I bet 2k each weekend and comeo ut 6k ahead for the year. Its not like I can brag that I can make a living from it....but at least the losses have stopped.
The point I was trying to make was that just because there is point differential on the card doesnt automatically make it a good betting value. And just because the number stays solid on the board and on the card....doesnt mean its automatically a game to avoid.
case in point...the NO/stl game this week. Pretty stable number throughout the week.....if the number rose to -6.5 but was -3.5 on the card.....it still wouldnt have been a good value to bet the card and NO-3.5. ...in my opinion before the game started.
Sometimes the number that people are worshiping as being exact and factual...is just an educated guess. a false god that is off the mark. Therefore a point differentia in this instancel on a parlay card is of little value.
Bills +2.5
Saints +3.5
Redskins +3.5
Buccs +5.5
Bears +3.5
Browns +2.5
Colts +6.5
Vikings +7.5
Texans +11.5
Jags +5.5
Cardinals +10.5
Giants +9.5
Raiders +10.5
Patriots +2.5
Falcons +12.5
Quote: LarrySSometimes the number that people are worshiping as being exact and factual...is just an educated guess. a false god that is off the mark. Therefore a point differentia in this instancel on a parlay card is of little value.
I wish I was as good a handicapper as you to recognize these bad numbers.
Quote: Wizard
I wish I was as good a handicapper as you to recognize these bad numbers.
me too!
Which ones are the bad numbers? I wish I knew.
I wish I was as good a handicapper as you to recognize these bad numbers.
we all have things we can wish for in life
i wish i had more knowledge on fixing cars...i would have saved alot of money in life
Quote: LarrySi wish i had more knowledge on fixing cars...i would have saved alot of money in life
If I could detect when the market was off by three point I wouldn't need to fix my own cars. I'd be living the good life like Billy Walters.
Mia-Buf: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Dal-Was: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Chi-Pha: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Ind-KC: GN 7.5, WH 6.5
Quote: KeyserSozeI collected a few cards yesterday. Comparing the Golden Nugget card with a Will Hill card:
Mia-Buf: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Dal-Was: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Chi-Pha: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Ind-KC: GN 7.5, WH 6.5
I love it when there is a difference off 3 or 7. Much less volatility.
Quote: KeyserSozeI collected a few cards yesterday. Comparing the Golden Nugget card with a Will Hill card:
Mia-Buf: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Dal-Was: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Chi-Pha: GN 3.5, WH 2.5
Ind-KC: GN 7.5, WH 6.5
Any opinion as to why the Golden Nuggett is pumping up the favorites and William Hill is knocking them down? We shall see if this creates some middle opportunities.
At point point I sent Mission to the Fremont (a Boyd casino) with about 20 tickets for $20 or $25 each. Mission said the supervisor thumbed through them then ripped them in half, threw them on the floor, and said angrily "Never come in here with a round robin again!"
Later I asked Mission's wife to put in about ten at the Golden Nugget, also for $20-$25. After two went through, I believe, the supervisor came out, thumbed through the rest and said "I'm not taking any more." I think Mission's wife asked why to which he said "You can leave now."
I'm gonna try to get as much down as I can this morning at William Hill and Golden Nugget. Based on your report, things don't look too promising.
Texans +10.5
Browns +2.5
Dolphins -2.5
Saints +3.5
However, it was a good money line week. I had Indy at +250, Giants at +400, and Ariz at +500.
Quote: rudeboyoibrowns +2.5 and buccs +5.5 killed most of mine with raiders +10.5 killing another. still have one live ticket though but its not looking good. bears +3.5 is the last leg.
Looks like an 0'fer for me too.
I had a 6-teamer killed when Tampa Bay +5.5 lost. Got another 6-teamer with 5 legs in.........the 6th leg? It's the Bears +3.5 (currently down 0-21). I hedged Philly -2.5 for a few hundred, but still a losing NFL day.
**But, I just hit a ROYAL FLUSH at Four Queens. I was dicking around during a commercial break of the football game. Stuck a $20 in a $0.25 machine and hit it.
I'm heading to The D now. Love watching those young chicks dance. Beers on me!
Quote: WizardIt was another washout in terms of the parlay cards. The big card killers were:
Texans +10.5
Browns +2.5
Dolphins -2.5
Saints +3.5
However, it was a good money line week. I had Indy at +250, Giants at +400, and Ariz at +500.
I still don't grasp the sportsbooks in Las Vegas getting upset and worried about $20-$50.usd parlay cards, calling them round robins as if that matters to them. It's all just as I say difficult to understand. It is or was Las Vegas. Yes, I read the MGM "manager" link but that was about $50,000.bets, not $20 to $50.usd parlays. The way the Wizard describes it we aren't talking about a thousand of the same card plays, but even if we were! what gives with this stuff? Can someone please confirm to me they don't want parlay action in these small amounts if and after they look at the picks? None of this makes sense to us, the general public and past customers of said city.
Quote: NokTangI still don't grasp the sportsbooks in Las Vegas getting upset and worried about $20-$50.usd parlay cards, calling them round robins as if that matters to them. It's all just as I say difficult to understand. It is or was Las Vegas. Yes, I read the MGM "manager" link but that was about $50,000.bets, not $20 to $50.usd parlays. The way the Wizard describes it we aren't talking about a thousand of the same card plays, but even if we were! what gives with this stuff? Can someone please confirm to me they don't want parlay action in these small amounts if and after they look at the picks? None of this makes sense to us, the general public and past customers of said city.
They want to take the poor bets from squares and decline the good bets from sharp players. They are basically dealing one-sided lines.
You want Texans +10.5? What? You're cheating us! Go away!!
You want Broncos -10.5? Sure, no problem. Too bad line is now -10 +100 ... hee hee.
Quote: NokTangCan someone please confirm to me they don't want parlay action in these small amounts if and after they look at the picks? None of this makes sense to us, the general public and past customers of said city.
You already know I feel this way. I've had cards rejected lots of times to prove it. Mission heads back home today. Hopefully he'll tell the story of his cards being ripped in half at the Fremont after he gets back, so you'll get it first hand.
The attitude of the casinos on everything is they want an advantage on every bet. They know that for the average person, betting the teams he likes, parlay and teaser cards carry a huge house edge, so bring 'em on. However, what I've been writing about is no secret, so they do not like cards where every pick is at least a half point in the player's favor. From an unknown face they will accept one or two anyway. I thought they would accept the ones I gave Mission because they were only for $20 or $25 each, or at least let him put in some.
Why you sometimes get away with it and sometimes you don't is still something I'm feeling out. Much like card counting, sometimes you can do it all day, and sometimes a guy in a suit shows up after ten minutes.
Yesterday, I included Buffalo +3.5 on every ticket. The closing number on this game was Buffalo pk or -1. I also used teams where I was able to get an extra half point from a key number. But right now, I don't have a clear strategy for filling out the tickets.
Quote: WizardYou already know I feel this way. I've had cards rejected lots of times to prove it. Mission heads back home today. Hopefully he'll tell the story of his cards being ripped in half at the Fremont after he gets back, so you'll get it first hand.
The attitude of the casinos on everything is they want an advantage on every bet. They know that for the average person, betting the teams he likes, parlay and teaser cards carry a huge house edge, so bring 'em on. However, what I've been writing about is no secret, so they do not like cards where every pick is at least a half point in the player's favor. From an unknown face they will accept one or two anyway. I thought they would accept the ones I gave Mission because they were only for $20 or $25 each, or at least let him put in some.
Why you sometimes get away with it and sometimes you don't is still something I'm feeling out. Much like card counting, sometimes you can do it all day, and sometimes a guy in a suit shows up after ten minutes.
What kind of gets me in this day and age, with technology, is why they print up these cards once on Thursday and then just never reprint them. Why not do a fresh batch on an as-needed basis if a key line moves?
You would still have the problem of "hot" sides where the board line was an integer (especially a 3 or a 7). Why do they bother with these "half-point" cards anyway? Why not just use the board lines and treat any pushes as if that game weren't on the card?
Seems like a weird bet to offer, when it's so easy to get an edge that they have to resort to tearing cards in half and yelling at people to get out.
Quote: AcesAndEightsSeems like a weird bet to offer, when it's so easy to get an edge that they have to resort to tearing cards in half and yelling at people to get out.
I'm guessing they offer the cards for the same reason they still offer countable blackjack or positive VP, to the extent that they still do. The existence of beatable games has a word-of-mouth marketing benefit. Lots of people hear that blackjack, VP or parlay cards are a good bet. Fortunately for the casino, most people ignore the details so they continue to play these games in a way that gives the casino a huge edge. For the few smart enough to play at an advantage the casino can always ban them.
It's a shady side of the casino business for sure, but consider the alternative. If casinos were legally forced to accept any bet from anyone then they would probably stop (intentionally) offering games where a player advantage is possible. As it is, smart bettors keeping a low profile can take advantage, financed by the vastly greater number of suckers who willingly give up a huge house edge.
Quote: AcesAndEightsWhat kind of gets me in this day and age, with technology, is why they print up these cards once on Thursday and then just never reprint them. Why not do a fresh batch on an as-needed basis if a key line moves?
I'm not sure either, but it may not be simple to print up the cards. Also, people may hoard the old ones. Of course, they could just not accept old ones, but it may lead to customer service problems of a legitimate player who spent a long time filling out the old ones only to have them rebuffed at the window.
This may be a better mathematical than practical solution, but I'd consider making them pay the same was as an off-the-board parlay. So, let's say the fair line on a game was +3 at the time of printing. However it moves to +3.5 the next day. That equates to a fair line change of 21 basis points. So, if the player must normally lay 110, then if he takes +3 on the dog you give him +111, and if he lays -3 on the dog you make him lay -131. Do such a calculation for every pick. They already do it for the off-the-board parlays. It would just be a way to get them in faster. Nothing more annoying than standing behind somebody making a dozen 10-leg off-the-board parlays for $2 each.
So the more you complain about adjusting it to fit current technology, the less edge you will have.
Quote: FroggerIf they adjust the parlay cards daily, or use some form of off-the-board numbers (even with giving every player half points), then there wouldn't be any edge at all. From an AP standpoint, just be happy you can sometimes get in $100 here and there. That's better than not getting in anything at all. And if they change it to get rid of physical cards printed on Wednesday or Thursday, then that edge would be gone.
So the more you complain about adjusting it to fit current technology, the less edge you will have.
Right, I wasn't advocating for this, it was simply a "huh?" moment; a question hypothetically posed to the casinos themselves.
I've never bet a parlay card myself as I'm not a big sports better and just learned about this edge this football season. I won't be in Vegas until after the NFL season is over, which I'm actually kind of sad about. I would have enjoyed getting a few of these in.
Quote: AcesAndEightsRight, I wasn't advocating for this, it was simply a "huh?" moment; a question hypothetically posed to the casinos themselves.
I've never bet a parlay card myself as I'm not a big sports better and just learned about this edge this football season. I won't be in Vegas until after the NFL season is over, which I'm actually kind of sad about. I would have enjoyed getting a few of these in.
either way the casinos get their monies worth with the parlay cards,
The casino has a better chance of losing if you bet flat or 2 teamers off the board,
If they can encourage people who would normally bet flat or 2 teamers into betting 3 or 4 teamers by chasing perceived advantages in point differentials..they accomplished their goal.
the cards are there to help the novice bettor who may be too intimidated to bet off the board, call out numbers, call out teasers,,,,to quietly make bets on their favorite teams by filling in circles.
the cards encourage people to chase number differentials rather than bet the right side of poorly constructed lines.Allowing perople to dissregard stats and trends and instead go for an extra half point.
If the cards werent a good thing for the casino overall...hey could jusr eliminate it. But getting people to bet minimum 3 teamers at a time is huge. And if they can get people to bet 4 teamers...even better.
3 team parlays off the board for example are just a series of let it ride bets....but the games are sometimes going on at the same time. But if you bet sunday morning footbal game, with a sunday 1 pm football gme, with the sunday 5pm football game...all you are doing is letting each win totally ride on the next game.
You cant pull back money...you are letting each win ride onto the next game.
Kind of like the guy at craps that keeps pressing it all they way up.
The only difference is the Vikings/Lions game. Boyd gives the Lions 2.5 and the South Point 3.5.
At the Rampart I put in two only, based on previous heat, and they were accepted without fuss. At the Suncoast, I put in only four, because that is usually where the cut me off, but this time they said "no more" at two. So, only four cards in so far. All time low -- by far. I'll try to get some more Suncoast cards in tomorrow.
