Any thoughts on best EV for $125 Preakness freeroll?

I made some Kentucky Derby bets online and opted to deposit $100 to get a $125 bonus. I won a few bucks and withdrew it immediately, now I am left with the $125 free roll that I intend to use on the Preakness.

I was thinking about probably betting about $60 on Orb to show, followed by win bets on every other horse in amounts that are inversely proportional to their win odds. I think that this will likely result in a minimum win of about $50-60, and a maximum win of around $200.

Is there a better strategy?

Given my utility, I don't really want maximum EV, I want to maximize my minimum win.

if you can eliminate some horses from contention it will dramatically improve both your ev and minimum win

I agree, but is my general bet heavy on the favorite to show and all others to win a good strategy, in general?

just pick like 30 trifectas or superfectas and hope you hit one :)

Why not bet the $125 to show on ORB ? Recent payoffs in Preakness favorites to show

I will have another $2.80 Animal Kingdom $3.60 Rachael Alexandra $3.60 Street Sense $2.40

And Big Brown $2.40 which is also what he paid to win !

But then there is Barbaro who broke down in the Preakness.

So if you are really concerned about locking in a minimum payout. ORB TO SHOW !

Quote: Buzzard

Why not bet the $125 to show on ORB ? Recent payoffs in Preakness favorites to show

I will have another $2.80 Animal Kingdom $3.60 Rachael Alexandra $3.60 Street Sense $2.40

And Big Brown $2.40 which is also what he paid to win !

But then there is Barbaro who broke down in the Preakness.

So if you are really concerned about locking in a minimum payout. ORB TO SHOW !

right, what's wrong with a 15-20 percent return in less than 2 mins.....deeper fields and lots of hunch money make place and show payoffs attractive.

How about a $2 Trifecta Wheel? You have every combination of horses with Orb if it finishes first, second or third. If you get lucky and a longshot (or two) ends up in the top 3 with him you win pretty big. If two favorites end up in the top 3 with Orb, you still get some money back. Obviously, if Orb doesn't finish in the top 3, you lose, but to me there is more upside to this bet than chance of Orb finishing out of the money.

$2 Trifecta wheel will cost you $112.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

How about a $2 Trifecta Wheel? You have every combination of horses with Orb if it finishes first, second or third. If you get lucky and a longshot (or two) ends up in the top 3 with him you win pretty big. If two favorites end up in the top 3 with Orb, you still get some money back. Obviously, if Orb doesn't finish in the top 3, you lose, but to me there is more upside to this bet than chance of Orb finishing out of the money.

$2 Trifecta wheel will cost you $112.

ZCore13

I think your math is off. I see 9 entries right now, so:

(1*8*7)2 = 112
plus
(8*1*7)2 = 112
plus
(8*7*1)2 = 112

336 dollars for all three positions for Orb.

Oops, guess that won't work for his free money. Exacta wheel...

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

Oops, guess that won't work for his free money. Exacta wheel...

ZCore13

You can always do the tri for $1, but I don't know if the entries are final either.