Orb to Win Triple Crown Betting

Orb won the 139th Kentucky Derby on Saturday as a 5 to 1 favorite. I noticed books in Las Vegas, including LVH and Wynn have released odds on whether Orb will be the first triple crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. Wynn opened at YES +240/NO -280, while the LVH did so at YES +210/NO-240. There appears to be confidence from the public in Orb than other recent derby winners; however, I think that No at -240 is a great price. Any horse fans or sports bettors planning to bet this?

honestly i would not bet no at -240. Too risky. The Preakness should be the toughest test for Orb, due to his late running style. The class of three year olds aside from Orb this year is pretty weak, and there are no new shooters of note waiting for him in Pimlico.

If he gets the Preakness, he will be a prohibitive favorite to win at Belmont. That race suits his style tremendously and it's his home track.

If I could bet YES at +240 I think that would be a fantastic bet, so I don't think NO at -240 is a good bet.

No at -240 is a fair price, but it's not great. I like Orb, and I don't live in Vegas, so I wouldn't make the bet. I'd say there's a 20-30% chance he wins the TC.

There is always extra sentiment on the YES side since everyone 'wants' a triple crown winner. I heard something on our local sports radio sation where they were saying the Belmont might be Orb's best distance. Not sure if they were talking to his trainer or a sharp or what.

-240 seems too good to be true. What am I missing? Will he go off at close to even money in both races?

Yeah, my guess would be 6-5 or even money in Preakness, and 3-5, 4-5 in Belmont.

I would be all over that -240 if all my cash was not tied up in non-durables. Food, clothing, etc.

34 YEARS since the last triple crown winner. Only 11 horses have ever won the Triple Crown. 21 horses have won the first 2 races,
only to lose in the Belmont.

Not even sure ORB was the best horse in the Derby, with a sloppy track yet. The suicidal 6F time aided him greatly. Don't expect that
in the Preakness. Should Orb make it to the Belmont stakes, that race is won more often by the jockey that either of the other 2 races.
And several horses in the Deby field, especially deep closers, may skip the Preakness and be fit and rested for the Belmont .

-240 What a steal !

Quote: Buzzard

I would be all over that -240 if all my cash was not tied up in non-durables. Food, clothing, etc.

34 YEARS since the last triple crown winner. Only 11 horses have ever won the Triple Crown. 21 horses have won the first 2 races,
only to lose in the Belmont.

Not even sure ORB was the best horse in the Derby, with a sloppy track yet. The suicidal 6F time aided him greatly. Don't expect that
in the Preakness. Should Orb make it to the Belmont stakes, that race is won more often by the jockey that either of the other 2 races.
And several horses in the Deby field, especially deep closers, may skip the Preakness and be fit and rested for the Belmont .

-240 What a steal !

Thanks for welcome back comment in another thread. I've been to the last 10 Derby's as I live in Lexington therefore easy to get there. The Derby is a great excuse to drink beer. This Derby was the 5th wettest in 139 runnings. Track was a mess. Yes, early fractions were quick but to Orb's credit his last quarter was decent and he galloped out strong. He comes from a great tail line family. Ogden Phipps doesn't have cheap horses. The horse is no fluke.

Most races that day were "merry go round" races. As I recall (beer drinking). It was all front end or just off the pace horses through the entire card, which makes Orb's run possibly more impressive.
Your right the Belmont is a jockey race. I remember Smarty Jones getting hooked intentionally by three different horses forcing him to run a 1.35 and change mile only to be completely softened for Birdstone. If Orb makes it through the Preakness they will be gunning for him in the Belmont.

I tend to agree that -240 is a steal against Orb. Soooooo much can go wrong for the horse. Last year was a perfect example. To win TC in this era the horse has to beat many, many more horses than the horses had to beat back in the day.

Now that I've agreed that -240 seems to be a good bet to bet Orb......Orb wins TC

I grew up a few blocks from Pimlico race track. Even parked cards for $10 a pop on Roger's Avenue on people front lawns. Boy, were they pissed when they got home.

Orb will be less than even for the Preakness. I knew ORB was special when SHUG entered him. He is not a trainer who enters the Derby to show the owners they have a Derby horse.

Quote: sodawater

honestly i would not bet no at -240. Too risky. The Preakness should be the toughest test for Orb, due to his late running style. The class of three year olds aside from Orb this year is pretty weak, and there are no new shooters of note waiting for him in Pimlico.

If he gets the Preakness, he will be a prohibitive favorite to win at Belmont. That race suits his style tremendously and it's his home track.

If I could bet YES at +240 I think that would be a fantastic bet, so I don't think NO at -240 is a good bet.

The new shooters will definitely be at Belmont. No trainer knows how three grueling races in 5 weeks will affect a horse. I agree that if he wins Saturday, he'll be a big favorite in June, but favorites haven't done well in the Belmont recently. I'd stay away, even though I'd like to see him win it too. Can't root against Shug in that position.

Quote: Buzzard

I grew up a few blocks from Pimlico race track. Even parked cards for $10 a pop on Roger's Avenue on people front lawns. Boy, were they pissed when they got home.

Orb will be less than even for the Preakness. I knew ORB was special when SHUG entered him. He is not a trainer who enters the Derby to show the owners they have a Derby horse.

Yeah, your right. Shug is patient with young horses. Orb is the real deal and can get the distance at the Belmont. Easy Goer was Shug's last serious TC colt. Horse racing has a way of disappointing the most people in shortest amount of time......this year will probably be no different that is why I'd lay 240 against Orb for a crispy.

Would love to see TC winner but I'm going to bet against Orb. I'm playing Will Take Charge at long odds. He was rallying with Orb at the top of lane and was checked when Verrazano bore out. Will Take Charge worst race was on an off track at Oaklawn, so I was mildly surprised by his run on the off track in Derby. I'm not saying that Will Take Charge is a faster horse than Orb but if Orb doesn't get his trip.......well.....why not?

Quote: FinsRule

Yeah, my guess would be 6-5 or even money in Preakness, and 3-5, 4-5 in Belmont.

oops, simple axiom....horse racing will disappoint the most people in the shortest time possible. Lucas's bomb in previous could have been a tip off. Orb didn't like inside/outside pressure....backed out. Buzzard may have lost show bet but may have won the 240 lay against Orb winning TC.

Quote: treetopbuddy

oops, simple axiom....horse racing will disappoint the most people in the shortest time possible. Lucas's bomb in previous could have been a tip off. Orb didn't like inside/outside pressure....backed out. Buzzard may have lost show bet but may have won the 240 lay against Orb winning TC.

I'm kinda confused. You think my post was bad because Orb went off at 3-5 instead of even money? Whatever ttb

Almost Post Time for The Belmont Stakes.

Orb at 2-1 the favorite.

Palace Malace by 3 lengths. What speed.

Orb 3rd by 5. Too late of a drive.

Quote: ten2win

Palace Malace by 3 lengths. What speed.

After his Derby run, Palace Malace was the last horse I would have picked to win the Belmont.

Time to ask the question: if PM didn't have blinkers on Derby Day, could he have won the Triple Crown?