superbowl
February 3rd, 2013 at 9:04:47 AM
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7 hours to go and not only have I not made a wager on the superbowl, but am completely unsettle on if I am going to. I have long since stopped wagering prop bet and I am having a hard time finding anything on the game itself that I like. It looks to me like the 49ers are the better team, although not by alot. Both teams have good defenses and decent running games. I don't think either teams running game will light it up against the other's strong defense. So that brings me to the passing games and quarterbacks. I have never been a big Flacco fan. I look at him and think he is a very average QB at best. But Baltimore is a good spot for him as he hasn't been asked to be that superstar type QB. Their strengths lie elsewhere. Now having said this, I must admit, Flacco has impressed me of late. He is playing the best I have seen him play and surely better than I thought him capable of.
But, Kaepernick, is the real wild card and key to the game. He could come out and be overwhelmed by the superbowl experience and throw a couple picks. But I don't expect that. I don't think he has to be great, just average and protect the ball and SF wins. As good as Baltimore's defense has played against two of the all time great QB's in these playoffs, these are two guys, (Payton Manning, and Brady) that are one dimensional. They aren't going to surprise you with there feet. You know exactly where they will be 3 and a half to 4 seconds after the snap, 5-6 yards directly behind the center. Kaepernick will not be and that is the extra weapon. He doesn't have to break off 25 and 30 year runs. All he has to do is scramble around and buy a couple extra seconds until someone comes open. It is a hell of a lot harder for a defensive back to cover a receiver for 7 or 8 seconds than it is for 4 seconds.
So I like SF, but I am not a guy who like to lay either points or odds and 4.5 pts seems just a hair high to me. Could be a 3 pt or less game. In checking the online site which monitors odds at different LV sportsbooks, I am thinking of the halftime line. I see two different halftime lines at different locations that I could be interested in. SF -3 @ +110, and SF-2.5 @-105. I am heading out to check a couple spots in person. I would love to get -2.5 @ even, but in the absence of that will go with one of the previous mentioned two.
But, Kaepernick, is the real wild card and key to the game. He could come out and be overwhelmed by the superbowl experience and throw a couple picks. But I don't expect that. I don't think he has to be great, just average and protect the ball and SF wins. As good as Baltimore's defense has played against two of the all time great QB's in these playoffs, these are two guys, (Payton Manning, and Brady) that are one dimensional. They aren't going to surprise you with there feet. You know exactly where they will be 3 and a half to 4 seconds after the snap, 5-6 yards directly behind the center. Kaepernick will not be and that is the extra weapon. He doesn't have to break off 25 and 30 year runs. All he has to do is scramble around and buy a couple extra seconds until someone comes open. It is a hell of a lot harder for a defensive back to cover a receiver for 7 or 8 seconds than it is for 4 seconds.
So I like SF, but I am not a guy who like to lay either points or odds and 4.5 pts seems just a hair high to me. Could be a 3 pt or less game. In checking the online site which monitors odds at different LV sportsbooks, I am thinking of the halftime line. I see two different halftime lines at different locations that I could be interested in. SF -3 @ +110, and SF-2.5 @-105. I am heading out to check a couple spots in person. I would love to get -2.5 @ even, but in the absence of that will go with one of the previous mentioned two.
February 3rd, 2013 at 9:46:58 AM
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best bet i have seen is 20-1 for torrey smith mvp. guy is the best offensive player on the ravens and if ravens win he will have had a huge game.
February 3rd, 2013 at 9:54:59 AM
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Quote: sodawaterbest bet i have seen is 20-1 for torrey smith mvp. guy is the best offensive player on the ravens and if ravens win he will have had a huge game.
Receivers can't really have a MVP like game if flacco didn't do well. If flacco does well it goes to flacco. That's just how the MVP voters do it.
February 3rd, 2013 at 9:55:59 AM
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Quote: bbvk05Receivers can't really have a MVP like game if flacco didn't do well. If flacco does well it goes to flacco. That's just how the MVP voters do it.
tell that to santonio holmes, hines ward, deion branch, jerry rice, etc.
February 3rd, 2013 at 9:58:59 AM
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i read this thread title with exclamation points even though it didnt have exclamation points.
February 3rd, 2013 at 12:14:36 PM
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kewlj, I agree completely. I'm a Ravens fan...but all the lines I've seen on the game, including prop bets seem reasonable to me. That is, nothing jumps out at me as exploitable. So while I'm rooting hard for the Ravens, sadly no action on the game...first time in a long time I can say that.
