Gulfstream Jackpot Pick-6 - Optimal Strategy?
Here is how the bet works: It's a 10 cent Pick-6 - picking the winners of 6 straight races. But here is the catch, you need to be the only person to win to win the jackpot. If not, 60% of that day's wagering (minus takeout) is paid out and 40% is put in the jackpot.
The jackpot now is at around 1.5 million. It's growing daily. Anyone have any ideas on optimal strategy? I'm sure some bets you make can be +EV.
I'm not entirely sure what the 60% rule is. If you aren't the only winner, you still share 60% of the jackpot with the other winners? You could probably buy ALL the 10-cent tickets as a 'syndicate' and make money.
Quote: FinsRuleIf you did all it would cost you between 50-100k. And you could get back a lot less than that. You only split that day's pool, not the jackpot. I think the strategy has to be to only purchase tickets that no one else will purchase. But who knows what those will be.
Your right Finsrule....to take this pool you'll need some oddball horses on your tickets. Logical horses will lead to multiple winning tickets which doesn't work in this format. As you know to hit the pick six you need to take a stand on several horses. Read between the lines....try to get into the trainer/owners head. People in the horse business can show remarkable patience. They will spend an entire year setting up a horse. Your going to have dig deep and box a lot of tickets. Good luck.
Pick 6 pot still growing at Gulfextreme ....probably best to let the computer pick for you......a thousand 10 cent straight tickets. Please note that I'm not saying your a poor handicapper. I've never calculated the odds of losing a bet (an extremely popular pastime in Wizard forums) according to my slide rule, your chances of getting hit by lighting are better. Good LuckQuote: FinsRuleIt's funny how people argue over tiny amounts, and theres an actual opportunity for someone good with math to make money and there are no takers.
Or lightningQuote: stoneynvPick 6 pot still growing at Gulfextreme ....probably best to let the computer pick for you......a thousand 10 cent straight tickets. Please note that I'm not saying your a poor handicapper. I've never calculated the odds of losing a bet (an extremely popular pastime in Wizard forums) according to my slide rule, your chances of getting hit by lighting are better. Good Luck
FinsRule your a smart guy as I have read some of your postings. There is not way to mathematically solve your problem. There is no strategy. I would also say there is no "efficient" way to bet this...... You simply have to pick winning horses. Steven Crist would tell you the pick 6 is a good bet if you bet less than 6 dollars or more than 75.Quote: FinsRuleThanks for the offer, not interested as of yet. Still working through whether or not there is a strategy I can use, or if this is a futile effort.
Fin, the pot is now 1.8 million....are you playing it...... or are you still trying to figure out some "mathematical magic" that will cause you to hit the nearly impossible?Quote: FinsRuleThanks for the offer, not interested as of yet. Still working through whether or not there is a strategy I can use, or if this is a futile effort.
the carryover is 2.3 million. Under the format.......if there are multiple winning tickets, no pot winner. There can only be one winning ticket. I believe 60% of the daily pick 6 pool is carried over if there are multiple winning tickets. 100% is carried over if there are no winning tickets. The best stratgey in my opinion would be to let the machine pick the tickets. Punch out as many 50 cent Pick 6 straights as you can afford. To hit this pick 6, it's going to take two plus 20 to 1 horses on your ticket.Quote: terrymcI think you should play exotics like the pick 6 like you play the lottery. Wait til it rolls a few times then play $10 or $20 on some sound combos and hope for the best.
using five horses per race would be 15,000 plus combinations.....how about that math guys?Quote: stoneynvthe carryover is 2.3 million. Under the format.......if there are multiple winning tickets, no pot winner. There can only be one winning ticket. I believe 60% of the daily pick 6 pool is carried over if there are multiple winning tickets. 100% is carried over if there are no winning tickets. The best stratgey in my opinion would be to let the machine pick the tickets. Punch out as many 50 cent Pick 6 straights as you can afford. To hit this pick 6, it's going to take two plus 20 to 1 horses on your ticket.
The other way to play it is to buy quick pick's. I've bought some quick picks, and I handicapped and got through 3 of 6, but that's it.
If it gets to 5-10 million on mandatory payout day, I'll invest quite a bit.
I knew the fireman in Phoenix who hit the 2002 or 03 Breeders Cup Pick 6 for 2-3 million. He put fifty into the race. Quick Picks. He didn't realize he hit race until teller told him. He had thrown ticket away. If this gets hit it will be a RNG ticket. Probably goes to mandatory payout day where the syndicates will hit it hoping for a small number of winning tickets.Quote: FinsRuleI think if I were to try to play it to win I would try to find a 20-1 or longer shot in each race and put it with the 2nd and 3rd choice in each race. Ticket will cost about $80 and I'll have 3 horses in each race. If I can hit 3 longshots and 3 2nd/3rd choices I'd win.
The other way to play it is to buy quick pick's. I've bought some quick picks, and I handicapped and got through 3 of 6, but that's it.
If it gets to 5-10 million on mandatory payout day, I'll invest quite a bit.
This has got to be getting close to someone doing that? Right?
the pick 6 is being hit on everyday.....all the combos are being covered. The pot will go to mandatory pay-out. Not sure what day that is...Quote: mwalz9It would've cost $79388.10 to cover every combination for $0.10 today.
This has got to be getting close to someone doing that? Right?
pot now 3.2 million....there can be only one winning ticket. Multiple winners don't take jackpot. One of the difficulties of having the only ticket is that the pick 6 includes several class races daily that bettors are keying 3-4 horses and then spreading way out on the other races. 721,710 x.10=72,171 to buy Pick 6 today. Buying race is way to risky. Again there can be only one winning ticket. Payoffs have been 2,000-4,000. The pick 6 was hit last week with a 70-1 winner, multiple times. The ALL button is being worn out.....these are 10 cent tickets. Approximately 100k going to jackpot daily which means pick 6 pool is around 250 k daily. At current build the pool will get to 6 million easy on mandatory payout day .....Florida Derby Day. I don't see anybody catching the only ticket.Quote: treetopbuddythe pick 6 is being hit on everyday.....all the combos are being covered. The pot will go to mandatory pay-out. Not sure what day that is...
yeah, watching on HRTV.....55/6/18/9/12/odds in first 5 races.....this is how it gets hitQuote: FinsRule1, 2, 3, 7, 11 would hit the jackpot today in the last race. Obviously I'm hoping it doesn't happen. We will see!
Quote: FinsRule1, 2, 3, 7, 11 would hit the jackpot today in the last race. Obviously I'm hoping it doesn't happen. We will see!
The world bet is always a winner.
hit!Quote: HeadlockThe world bet is always a winner.
Gulfstream Park's elusive 10-cent Rainbow 6 was hit Friday afternoon for a record $3,591,245.44. The ticket was purchased at The Meadowlands in New Jersey. The winning ticket cost $3,118.50.
The previous record for a winning ticket on the Rainbow 6 was $791,364 on April 1, 2012. The previous record carryover was $5.1 million on April 23, 2011.
The Rainbow 6 is paid out when there is only one unique ticket with all six winners on the last six races of the day. Going into Friday's last race, there were five live tickets. The winner in the last race, Feline Forum, returned $23. The last time the Rainbow 6 was hit was Dec. 28 for $41,813.78.
Friday's 10-cent Rainbow 6 started with Keyner Veloz winning the fifth race and paying $114. The rest of the winners were Original Cast ($11.40) in the sixth, Odalys Halo ($36.80) in the seventh, Artie's Jasper ($17.20) in the eighth, Mays Treasuretrove ($23.60) in the ninth and Feline Forum in the 10th.
(With files from Gulfstream Park)
