Middling - Superbowl
If you can get Baltimore +4.5 and SF -4 (Both at -110), is that profitable? What if it's Baltimore +4.5 and SF -3.5 (Both at -110). Or will middling really only work if you can get around EVEN on each bet?
Quote: FinsRuleI apologize if this has been covered. Specifically for this Superbowl, but really for any NFL game, can middling be profitable?
If you can get Baltimore +4.5 and SF -4 (Both at -110), is that profitable? What if it's Baltimore +4.5 and SF -3.5 (Both at -110). Or will middling really only work if you can get around EVEN on each bet?
You would need to know the odds of Baltimore losing by exactly 4 points. I'd guess it is not profitable at the 1/2 point difference, and around even at the full point.
Quote: DRichI believe the only single point middle that is profitable at -110 is -2.5 and +3.5
I concur
While lagging way behind three point spreads, four point spreads aren't a rare occurence. 28-24 or 32-28 anyone? Couple this with a 2-pt. conversion prop, and I think you might have a winning combination.
Quote: AyecarumbaIf the Ravens lose by 4 points, wouldn't the -4 SF lay, push (not lose), making the other side (Baltimore +4.5) profitable? If SF or Baltimore covers, wouldn't the total be a push? Where's the downside?
While lagging way behind three point spreads, four point spreads aren't a rare occurence. 28-24 or 32-28 anyone? Couple this with a 2-pt. conversion prop, and I think you mgiht have a winning combination.
The risk is that if either SF wins by more than four, or that Baltimore loses by less than four, you lose the juice.
Quote: DRichThe risk is that if either SF wins by more than four, or that Baltimore loses by less than four, you lose the juice.
I see. The underdog still has to put down 110 to win 100. But isn't the same true for -2.5/+3.5?
Quote: AyecarumbaI see. The underdog still has to put down 110 to win 100. But isn't the same true for -2.5/+3.5?
True, but 3 points is the most common margin of victory in the NFL, which is why DRich picked that particular spread. I personally don't consider middling unless I can get a 2+ point swing. I will consider a 1.5 swing happens to fall in that magical 3 point margin of victory range. The best way to find a wider range is to bet very early. I often draw up my own lines on sunday night based on power ratings. When the overnights come out, I will take note of any line that is a more than a couple points off my line and if I can't find a reason for it, such as a key injury, I will jump on the line first thing monday morning. This is easier to do now that there are websites that monitor the lines at different LV books. You don't have to go running all over town as I suppose you did before my time.
So when I find that line that is out of whack, based on my own projections, I jump on it early and wait and see if it moves in the coming days. If it does, middling can be of valuable option.
Quote: kewljTrue, but 3 points is the most common margin of victory in the NFL, which is why DRich picked that particular spread. I personally don't consider middling unless I can get a 2+ point swing. I will consider a 1.5 swing happens to fall in that magical 3 point margin of victory range. The best way to find a wider range is to bet very early. I often draw up my own lines on sunday night based on power ratings. When the overnights come out, I will take note of any line that is a more than a couple points off my line and if I can't find a reason for it, such as a key injury, I will jump on the line first thing monday morning. This is easier to do now that there are websites that monitor the lines at different LV books. You don't have to go running all over town as I suppose you did before my time.
So when I find that line that is out of whack, based on my own projections, I jump on it early and wait and see if it moves in the coming days. If it does, middling can be of valuable option.
Thank you for the valuable tip!
