How to Evaluate SB Prop Bets

I’ve never seen this published anywhere so I’d thought I’d post it here; it’s actually very easy to evaluate the lion’s share of SB prop bets using just 2 assumptions.

1) Discrete sports related events follow a Poisson distribution ie. Touchdowns, Interceptions, Field Goals, Safeties, Receptions, Home Runs, Hockey Goals, etc.
2) Season averages are a good estimate for player performance.

The rest is just STATS 101
Example: Will Joe Flacco throw over/under 1.5 touchdowns?

In 19 games this season and postseason Joe Flacco has thrown a total of 30 Touchdowns. This averages out to 1.58 TD’s per game.
Using our Poisson distribution with v=1.58
Probability(0 TD)= (1.58^0 * e^(-1.58))/(0!) =.206
Probability(1 TD)= (1.58^1 * e^(-1.58))/(1!) =.3254

Probability of Under win=.531
Probability of Over Win =.469

Odds Ratio: =.531/.469 =1.132
Fair Moneyline:
Under -113
Over +113

Note: Assumption 2 is the weaker assumption, especially if the player has had a limited number of starts and you should add some breathing room in your line for the Raven’s defense. Still I’d bet the under if I could find it at even money or the over at +130.

How about non player related props like this one? (that I just made up):

Number of camera shots of the coach's parent's box between the kickoff and the end of the game: Over 5 or more - Under 3 or less