Santa Anita Survivor
January 6th, 2013 at 3:54:05 PM
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Now a few days off to see who is still standing.
January 6th, 2013 at 4:27:18 PM
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I picked Kindle and was rooting against a Mizdirection show. Needless to say, I advanced, but so do the 1,000+ others (no offense, Buzzard).
How about I had a $10 win bet on Kindle and lost by a nose and had a $2 Trifecta 6/3/5 and got 6/3/but the 5 lost gas in the stretch. I thought I had em both at different points in the race.
How about I had a $10 win bet on Kindle and lost by a nose and had a $2 Trifecta 6/3/5 and got 6/3/but the 5 lost gas in the stretch. I thought I had em both at different points in the race.
January 6th, 2013 at 4:56:37 PM
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It's early, but Im looking at Tizaminister in Race 1 on Thursday. A lot can change before then though.
January 6th, 2013 at 5:10:29 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleI advanced via switching my pick to the favorite in Race 2. Now I get to hope for a Breeders cup bounce from Mizdirection, and this thing can get interesting.
BOUNCE You mean you are a Beyers addict. If the Beyers high figure horse wins, WOW When he loses, oops he bounced LOL.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 6th, 2013 at 5:15:04 PM
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Quote: BuzzardBOUNCE You mean you are a Beyers addict. If the Beyers high figure horse wins, WOW When he loses, oops he bounced LOL.
So with you on the the Beyers. Plenty of broke Horse players who swear by Beyers.
January 6th, 2013 at 5:16:49 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleUgh, I wrote a long response, and it got erased. Basically, he lugged in, and it took him until like 30 yards from the finish to actually straighten out and draw away.
He has a lot of improving to do. Coil, who won the San Pasqual, would have beaten him by 4-5 lengths in this race.
Coil race 6f time was 1.11 1/5 and he got up to win by a head.
Goldencents stalked a 1.10 6f time and walked when asked to win by 1 and 1/2.
You got the 5 lengths reversed.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 6th, 2013 at 5:19:51 PM
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Quote: BozSo with you on the the Beyers. Plenty of broke Horse players who swear by Beyers.
I am a Baltimore boy. Byers wrote for Washington post and one year had a handicapping TV show at Pimlico. I was never impressed.
He recently wrote that he had lost over 60K last 2 years. He is a degenerate gambler. In one book he talks about Prime bets , where you bet 3 or 4 times what you bet on every other race that day. LOL
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 6th, 2013 at 5:22:05 PM
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Quote: BuzzardI am a Baltimore boy. Byers wrote for Washington post and one year had a handicapping TV show at Pimlico. I was never impressed.
He recently wrote that he had lost over 60K last 2 years. He is a degenerate gambler. In one book he talks about Prime bets , where you bet 3 or 4 times what you bet on every other race that day. LOL
Mike Warren (Laskey) also had a show and business in Baltimore and he made millions. Sorry for the people that followed him.
January 6th, 2013 at 5:28:02 PM
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Ok, and what were the final times?
January 6th, 2013 at 5:30:40 PM
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OH NO ! REALLY. Goldenscent sat behind a fast pace and walked when need be. Gee, not speed figures, please.
Fast enough to win by 1 and a half. what more did he need to do ? GRRRRR
Fast enough to win by 1 and a half. what more did he need to do ? GRRRRR
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 6th, 2013 at 5:33:03 PM
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PLAYERS STILL IN: 1692
PLAYERS OUT: 2696
PLAYERS OUT: 2696
January 6th, 2013 at 5:35:15 PM
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Quote: BozMike Warren (Laskey) also had a show and business in Baltimore and he made millions. Sorry for the people that followed him.
In the 60's mike sold a pamphlet for $10 on winning at the horses. You left after winning $50 each day LOL In the 70's he had so many suckers that he would freeze up the phone exchange in Pikesville om Saturdays. East coast players got opposite team from West
caost. Mike was the creator of the "Psychic Friends Network" of Dionne Warwick fame. He was also convicted of fraud after obtaining $6,000,000 in loans and credit lines.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 6th, 2013 at 7:45:37 PM
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Quote: BuzzardOH NO ! REALLY. Goldenscent sat behind a fast pace and walked when need be. Gee, not speed figures, please.
Fast enough to win by 1 and a half. what more did he need to do ? GRRRRR
Did you watch the race?
January 7th, 2013 at 8:09:03 AM
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of course i did. you are comparing a horse with 4 starts against one who ran his last race. it did take him a while to get into gear, but once he did the result was obvious. Lots of room for improvement between now and the 1st Saturday in May.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 10th, 2013 at 10:19:38 AM
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TIZ A MINISTER 1st race #3
Ist race ran 3rd 30K claimers 2nd race ran 2nd 40K claimer 3rd race MSW game 2nd. 4th race MSW 5th at 5 &1/2, way too short
3 different jockeys those 4 races, now enter T Baze.
5th race 1mile turf 11 hole, blocked at head off stretched, still passes 8 horses in stretch to be 2nd.
6th race Breaks maiden at 6& 1/2.
7th race 200K 7f 11 hole again, finished 4th by 2.
Todays race conditions must have started for claiming price of 40K or less.
6 horse field, no traffic problems.
4th time T Baze has ridden this horse.
Ist race ran 3rd 30K claimers 2nd race ran 2nd 40K claimer 3rd race MSW game 2nd. 4th race MSW 5th at 5 &1/2, way too short
3 different jockeys those 4 races, now enter T Baze.
5th race 1mile turf 11 hole, blocked at head off stretched, still passes 8 horses in stretch to be 2nd.
6th race Breaks maiden at 6& 1/2.
7th race 200K 7f 11 hole again, finished 4th by 2.
Todays race conditions must have started for claiming price of 40K or less.
6 horse field, no traffic problems.
4th time T Baze has ridden this horse.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 10th, 2013 at 10:26:02 AM
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This from the house handicapper:
TIZ A MINISTER - Has the look of a major player. He switches to turf
after he ran fourth in the King Glorious on synthetic footing Dec.
16. He finished second despite a troubled trip when racing on turf
here Oct. 6.
TIZ A MINISTER - Has the look of a major player. He switches to turf
after he ran fourth in the King Glorious on synthetic footing Dec.
16. He finished second despite a troubled trip when racing on turf
here Oct. 6.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 10th, 2013 at 12:38:00 PM
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24 minutes to post time. FINN, where are you ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 10th, 2013 at 1:16:17 PM
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Ran 2nd at a generous $2.10 to place. Chart not up yet but imagine 2 horse got to an easy early lead.
But, hey, surviving is the name of this game !
But, hey, surviving is the name of this game !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 10th, 2013 at 7:45:48 PM
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Quote: Buzzard24 minutes to post time. FINN, where are you ?
Don't worry, I took the easy choice and advanced. Tomorrow will be tougher.
January 11th, 2013 at 6:51:19 AM
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Is everyone here still in? I'm in, my brother and his wife are in. My wife is out.
January 11th, 2013 at 8:30:14 AM
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Doubledown on 10. No, this is not a BJ hunch bet. However the trainer has two 2nd place finishes in Breeders Cup Filly and mare races. In 2010 and 2011 with the same horse. the horse's name SWITCH.
Looks like the stable is doubling down on this horse. Had 3 starts in 2011, all MSW, went off 2.70 in last race that year. After a year layoff led into stretch last race at 6 furlongs. Going 5 and 1/2 F today.
Last Race was 50K claimers and 27k purse. Today is 20k claimers and 18K purse. 60% drop in claiming value, 30% drop in purse, and fastest time last race. If I don't survive, such is fate. But I like my chances.
PLAYERS STILL IN: 1395
PLAYERS OUT: 2993
Looks like the stable is doubling down on this horse. Had 3 starts in 2011, all MSW, went off 2.70 in last race that year. After a year layoff led into stretch last race at 6 furlongs. Going 5 and 1/2 F today.
Last Race was 50K claimers and 27k purse. Today is 20k claimers and 18K purse. 60% drop in claiming value, 30% drop in purse, and fastest time last race. If I don't survive, such is fate. But I like my chances.
PLAYERS STILL IN: 1395
PLAYERS OUT: 2993
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 11th, 2013 at 11:27:46 AM
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Not completely decided.
Either Oscillator or Cuvee Exchange in Race 1
or
He's Not Too Shaby in Race 6.
This is tough.
Either Oscillator or Cuvee Exchange in Race 1
or
He's Not Too Shaby in Race 6.
This is tough.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:37:10 AM
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Tick Tock You are on the clock !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 11th, 2013 at 12:37:21 PM
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He's not too shaby is my final pick. Good luck to both of us.
January 11th, 2013 at 1:37:33 PM
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Shuvee did not hit the board in the first. Derringer scares me in the 6th. Wire to wire at 5&1/2 from 12 hole last out.
We shall know soon enough.
We shall know soon enough.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 11th, 2013 at 4:04:08 PM
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Well, Finn. We are still alive. On to Tomorrow.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 11th, 2013 at 5:13:04 PM
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Tomorrow is the hardest day so far. I think we'll be going from the 700s to the 400s or 500s. I'm going with Castletown in the 3rd.
January 11th, 2013 at 7:31:57 PM
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I agree. Not a no brainer on tomorrows card. And that 3rd race is super tough.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 11th, 2013 at 8:26:13 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleTomorrow is the hardest day so far. I think we'll be going from the 700s to the 400s or 500s. I'm going with Castletown in the 3rd.
I may have to go with Midnight Transfer in the third race. Took him 4 races to break his maiden, but he won by 4 and !/2 in 1:08
for 6 F. Followed that up by winning San pedro stakes 6 & 1/2 f in 1:14. Then ran third in a grade 2 1&1/16 race. His last race was in
April 2012 . Safe to think he went wrong during it. But he was 7.60 to 1. The favorite was some dog Creative Cause at 4/5. 2nd
favorite at 4.10 was a pig named I'll Have Another.
7 workouts in last 56 days. Last two bullets , handily 6F in 1:11:80 both times. Class horse versus Finn's speed horse.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 11th, 2013 at 9:49:33 PM
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May we both hit the board Finn, this is indeed a tough race on a tuff card !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 8:13:39 AM
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Might go to high 300's today. Hope we are in that group.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 8:30:02 AM
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I thought about midnight, but that layoff scares me way too much.
January 12th, 2013 at 8:35:49 AM
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Me too, but love those last 2 works and all that back class. Gonna surf handicappers and trackmen, in case I change me mind.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 8:45:15 AM
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What a waste of time. Checked all 19 so called handicappers on Santa Anita website. Talk about touts. Looks like they went to the Mike Warren school of handicapping. Where is Jack's green card when you need one ? !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 10:50:51 AM
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Is it just me and Finn as WOV survivors ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 10:54:06 AM
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just bet odd on horses in the place pool with 10 or more horses......the later the race on the card the better....just sayin'
Each day is better than the next
January 12th, 2013 at 11:46:14 AM
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So far been doing that in 6 horses fields even, But today is tuff card. Late race is not always best, except for fact odds-on less likely as players go broke.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 11:55:15 AM
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yes, most player are stuck late in the card and can't "get out" on "odds on" horses so they move to horses that are less logical..... horse players are always trying to beat the chalk. Odds on horses win at a 45% rate in todays information age......still a negative return but a place to start
Each day is better than the next
January 12th, 2013 at 12:03:04 PM
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odds on horses in 10 plus field place strike at 85 % with 2.55 return on 2.00 dollars....positive ROI but a grinders game
Each day is better than the next
January 12th, 2013 at 12:06:29 PM
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The Survivor requires your horse to show or better. All too often it's a win or nothing approach by a jockey and/or trainer,
The 60/20/10 purse structure is responsible. My last 2 picks were 2 to 5 shots in short field.
Today I am betting on class. If I have to lose, I want it to be with the best horse.
The 60/20/10 purse structure is responsible. My last 2 picks were 2 to 5 shots in short field.
Today I am betting on class. If I have to lose, I want it to be with the best horse.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 12:28:34 PM
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great opportunities in short price horses......yes, purse structure is heavily tilted for the winner....jockey, trainer, groom valet, hot walker, etc. and last but not least owner......owners lose more money than any horse player could hope to lose
Each day is better than the next
January 12th, 2013 at 1:42:36 PM
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My horse won in a hand ride. Finn hung on for third by a neck. We both survived. YEAH ! ! !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 4:04:11 PM
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I got eliminated because I failed to set a pick. The reason...emergency gall bladder surgery! UGH!!!! Good Luck to you guys now. Make me proud.
January 12th, 2013 at 5:52:46 PM
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Had my gall bladder taken out about 30 years ago. Foot long scar LOL
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 12th, 2013 at 5:56:46 PM
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Quick math says we lost about 100 more today, probably will be down to ~625 tomorrow.
January 12th, 2013 at 10:03:39 PM
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I am leaning towards a first time starter. I know I know. But 8 horse field, 2 other first time starters with no impressive workouts,
and 3 that finished 8th or 9th their only start.
The other two entrants had final time of 1:11 and 3/5 their only start.
Demonic is a $400,000 auction purchase. Last two works were 1:12 for 6F handily, 1/21 and 2/14. 7f today and expect this filly to be sent off a heavy favorite.
and 3 that finished 8th or 9th their only start.
The other two entrants had final time of 1:11 and 3/5 their only start.
Demonic is a $400,000 auction purchase. Last two works were 1:12 for 6F handily, 1/21 and 2/14. 7f today and expect this filly to be sent off a heavy favorite.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 13th, 2013 at 1:26:01 PM
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a little info on workouts......(not saying you don't already know this) workout times can be misleading and sometimes downright dishonest. When horses "break off" the 3/8ths, 1/2 , 5/8th's pole etc. they are always traveling at different speeds when clocker starts the watch. Horse are often confused for other horses or just simply missed whereby clocker "guesses" the time. The Thoroughbred Center clocker in Lexington gave some trainers any number they wanted......witnessed it on several occasions. As you probably know workouts are generally one or two horses working against the clock which has very little to do with horse racing. I had a horse that had fastest works of the meet at Keeneland but when in a race would get get so amped up he simply spit the bit at the eight pole if not sooner. He felt the pressure of other horses. I liken workouts to a golfer on the driving range. A handicapper can glean some info from workouts but must be very careful.....just saying'
Each day is better than the next
January 13th, 2013 at 5:02:09 PM
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I survived easily with Jeramimo. Buzz, did you make it?
January 17th, 2013 at 5:03:31 PM
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Uhh... what happened to everyone?
January 17th, 2013 at 5:10:03 PM
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partying with their winnings
Each day is better than the next
