Hawthorne Survivor
December 10th, 2012 at 12:49:26 PM
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Hawthorne Racecourse runs a contest 2-3 times a year. It's simple. Pick one horse each racing day at Hawthorne. That horse needs to show, and you advance. The last one standing wins $2500. Free to enter.
2615 started. 6 racing days have passed. I am one of 78 remaining. 1 in 78 chance of winning $2500, I'll take it.
You can monitor my progress on this link:
http://www.hawthorneracecourse.com/handicapping_contests/survivor/top.php
Any thoughts for this week are appreciated as always.
2615 started. 6 racing days have passed. I am one of 78 remaining. 1 in 78 chance of winning $2500, I'll take it.
You can monitor my progress on this link:
http://www.hawthorneracecourse.com/handicapping_contests/survivor/top.php
Any thoughts for this week are appreciated as always.
December 10th, 2012 at 1:00:58 PM
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The obvious choice is Coach's Choice on the 13th.
You're Welcome!
You're Welcome!
December 10th, 2012 at 1:51:05 PM
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Coach's choice first start was for a purse on 42,000 at AP turf. Not maidens ? Anyway went off at 5-1 broke slow finished 5th by 4
lengths. Next start Hawthorne MSW $32,000 purse I mile turf. Good early speed but speed burner set suicidal pace. the leader had 6
length lead at stretch call, finished 2nd by 2 Coach Choise finished 7th.
Now Coach's Choice in 6 horse field, has to beat 3 horses. Dopping way in class and showed early speed at higher. Trainer is 23% W
and hits the board 54%.
Now for the competition #1 first time starter mediocre works 8-1 Morning line. #3 went of 80-1 last time finished 7th in 8 horse field by a mere 47 lengths. the 8th place horse threw his jockey. Should beat these two, now just needs beat 1 of the others.
#2 has one 3rd by 10 lengths. #5 led at 1/4 at 6f last race, but finished 3rd by 12, 2 lengths ahead of #6 in the same race.
So we have a drop down filly with early speed against a weak 6 horse field. What to do ? What to do ?
lengths. Next start Hawthorne MSW $32,000 purse I mile turf. Good early speed but speed burner set suicidal pace. the leader had 6
length lead at stretch call, finished 2nd by 2 Coach Choise finished 7th.
Now Coach's Choice in 6 horse field, has to beat 3 horses. Dopping way in class and showed early speed at higher. Trainer is 23% W
and hits the board 54%.
Now for the competition #1 first time starter mediocre works 8-1 Morning line. #3 went of 80-1 last time finished 7th in 8 horse field by a mere 47 lengths. the 8th place horse threw his jockey. Should beat these two, now just needs beat 1 of the others.
#2 has one 3rd by 10 lengths. #5 led at 1/4 at 6f last race, but finished 3rd by 12, 2 lengths ahead of #6 in the same race.
So we have a drop down filly with early speed against a weak 6 horse field. What to do ? What to do ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 10th, 2012 at 1:55:49 PM
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Quote: mwalz9The obvious choice is Coach's Choice on the 13th.
You're Welcome!
I don't pick the obvious choice unless I actually like it. You can't win this thing by picking the obvious choice over and over again.
December 10th, 2012 at 1:56:35 PM
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I like it. You asked for advice, I gave it. It's your pick though, do it however you wish.
December 10th, 2012 at 1:57:29 PM
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Quote: BuzzardCoach's choice first start was for a purse on 42,000 at AP turf. Not maidens ? Anyway went off at 5-1 broke slow finished 5th by 4
lengths. Next start Hawthorne MSW $32,000 purse I mile turf. Good early speed but speed burner set suicidal pace. the leader had 6
length lead at stretch call, finished 2nd by 2 Coach Choise finished 7th.
Now Coach's Choice in 6 horse field, has to beat 3 horses. Dopping way in class and showed early speed at higher. Trainer is 23% W
and hits the board 54%.
Now for the competition #1 first time starter mediocre works 8-1 Morning line. #3 went of 80-1 last time finished 7th in 8 horse field by a mere 47 lengths. the 8th place horse threw his jockey. Should beat these two, now just needs beat 1 of the others.
#2 has one 3rd by 10 lengths. #5 led at 1/4 at 6f last race, but finished 3rd by 12, 2 lengths ahead of #6 in the same race.
So we have a drop down filly with early speed against a weak 6 horse field. What to do ? What to do ?
Every field at Hawthorne is a weak field. Yet odds on horses finish off the board daily.
December 10th, 2012 at 2:01:14 PM
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Quote: mwalz9I like it. You asked for advice, I gave it. It's your pick though, do it however you wish.
I appreciate the advice. But anyone can look at a morning line. Buzz put some rationale behind it, which I appreciate a little more than just writing down the name of an odds on morning line that I'm guessing more than half will pick.
Scratches are a big factor in this thing. And if a horse scratches out of race 1, I'll almost certainly pick her. 2 year old fillies make me very nervous though.
I'm actually leaning toward the #6 Pink Leninade in the 3rd race, especially if I can get a scratch.
Mom is named Soviet, Dad is Lemon Drop Kid. Love that name.
December 10th, 2012 at 2:01:31 PM
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But not every field is 6 horses. Not every field ahs a horse who showed Early Speed at a higher class. Nor a decent jockey and very competent trainer. I looked over the card. You have a better show bet ?????
Not talking about profitable at this stage, but to keep the streak going, this would sure as hell be my choice.
And your choice for the 13th ????? Don't lie !
Not talking about profitable at this stage, but to keep the streak going, this would sure as hell be my choice.
And your choice for the 13th ????? Don't lie !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 10th, 2012 at 4:38:55 PM
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I put thought into it too, but I was at work. I glanced at some PP's for the race and made a quick response. The 6 horse field, the huge drop in class, and the jockey are the 3 reasons I'd take Coach's Choice. Without even looking at the morning line, this has to be the best choice in a 6 horse field where the only requirement is to show.
December 10th, 2012 at 4:41:11 PM
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I'm already regretting posting this on this site. The pressure has gotten to me.
December 10th, 2012 at 4:41:55 PM
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Buzz where do you get your PPs from? You buy them or free?
December 10th, 2012 at 5:17:41 PM
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I go to Equibase, select entries, click on track and date, then click on horses name and it brings up a new screen. This one has workouts , results, etc.
Click on jockey trainer name owner etc for their stats. click on results to see chart of every race a horse has run.
A little cumbersome at first, but the price is right. FREE !!!!
Click on jockey trainer name owner etc for their stats. click on results to see chart of every race a horse has run.
A little cumbersome at first, but the price is right. FREE !!!!
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 10th, 2012 at 5:18:43 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleI'm already regretting posting this on this site. The pressure has gotten to me.
No sissies here Finn, now post your pick. NOW
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 10th, 2012 at 6:05:31 PM
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Pink Leninade, depending on scratches.
December 10th, 2012 at 6:40:09 PM
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Uh, oh Better hope Tell Me About It is scratched in your race. Stepping down in class, high early speed , WO yesterday.
Pink leninade, hit board 5 of 6 this year. But off 55 days, no workouts, and facing 5 other Early Speed horse.
If he hooks up with Tell Me About It, or one of the other horses, he might not hit the board.
Pink leninade, hit board 5 of 6 this year. But off 55 days, no workouts, and facing 5 other Early Speed horse.
If he hooks up with Tell Me About It, or one of the other horses, he might not hit the board.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 10th, 2012 at 8:23:13 PM
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Fin has 3 days to come to his senses. Coaches Choices is adding blinkers. I consider it a 5 horse field already. I mean the 3 horse went off at 83 to 1 it's only start and was 7th by 47.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 11th, 2012 at 5:13:40 AM
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I'm willing to bet Coach's Choice doesn't just show...I bet she wins! In fact, I'll gonna plop a $50 bet down on her to win on my Xpressbet account!
December 11th, 2012 at 5:41:14 AM
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Fin thanks for letting us know AFTER the contest started.
December 11th, 2012 at 5:51:14 AM
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Hey, Finn doesn't want any competition.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 11th, 2012 at 6:43:58 AM
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Quote: playstkidFin thanks for letting us know AFTER the contest started.
Santa Anita does it twice a year, Portland Meadows does once or twice. I'll let everyone know next time. I welcome the competition! But I want to win this one.
Go Pink Leninade! (The lack of workouts makes me nervous though)
December 11th, 2012 at 6:48:51 AM
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So why be nervous? Just pick Coach's Choice and relax!
December 11th, 2012 at 7:51:48 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleSanta Anita does it twice a year, Portland Meadows does once or twice. I'll let everyone know next time. I welcome the competition! But I want to win this one.
Go Pink Leninade! (The lack of workouts makes me nervous though)
The fact that he needs the lead makes me more nervous.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 12th, 2012 at 12:09:47 PM
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Tick-Tock
Tick-Tock
Tick-Tock
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 12th, 2012 at 1:52:51 PM
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Pink Leninade is in as the pick. I'll check scratches tomorrow at 10:00 to see if I want to change.
December 12th, 2012 at 1:57:41 PM
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YOU DO KNOW HOW THIS WILL END, DON'T YOU ? sigh
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 12th, 2012 at 7:22:40 PM
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Buzz, I think he still may be alright. Pink Leninade probably will SHOW, which is all he needs. I'd say our filly, Coaches Choice WINS her race though. In fact, Im gonna place a $100 ATB bet on her from work tomorrow on my Xpressbet Account split 50-35-15.
December 12th, 2012 at 7:31:52 PM
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He needs a show horse. He may indeed be ok, but his horse has been off almost 2 months, no workouts, does not have the best
early speed, is in a race with 5 other speed horses. His horse has hit the board 5 of 6 races, but today's race is not the best spot
to continue that streak.
Coaches Choice is also in a 6 horse race, but has a non-descript first time starter and a horse who went off 84 to 1 her only start and finished 47 length back. The other 3 horses had been 10 or more lengths back the only times they hit the board. Meaning
CC has to beat only 1 logical horse, not 3, to get show.
Fin is no different than most horse players. When he asks who you like, he really wants to tell you who he likes. Great scene in LET IT RIDE when Trotter asks everyone who they like, then bets the only horse no one mentioned. It's on NETFLIX and damn, Jennifer Tilly is HOT in it !
early speed, is in a race with 5 other speed horses. His horse has hit the board 5 of 6 races, but today's race is not the best spot
to continue that streak.
Coaches Choice is also in a 6 horse race, but has a non-descript first time starter and a horse who went off 84 to 1 her only start and finished 47 length back. The other 3 horses had been 10 or more lengths back the only times they hit the board. Meaning
CC has to beat only 1 logical horse, not 3, to get show.
Fin is no different than most horse players. When he asks who you like, he really wants to tell you who he likes. Great scene in LET IT RIDE when Trotter asks everyone who they like, then bets the only horse no one mentioned. It's on NETFLIX and damn, Jennifer Tilly is HOT in it !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 13th, 2012 at 5:13:09 AM
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I agree 100%, Buzz. I'm actually stoked that there are actually horse racing guys here. I LOVE it! The fact that we're even talking about it here makes me happy.
December 13th, 2012 at 6:08:59 AM
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Coaches Choice is a good pick.
But here are the reasons I'm not picking her:
2 starts - Never on the board
She'll probably receive 40%+ support, I try not to go with the crowd
2 year old fillies, ESPECIALLY UP FOR A TAG, are the least reliable of any group of horses.
But here are the reasons I'm not picking her:
2 starts - Never on the board
She'll probably receive 40%+ support, I try not to go with the crowd
2 year old fillies, ESPECIALLY UP FOR A TAG, are the least reliable of any group of horses.
December 13th, 2012 at 6:12:34 AM
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Three other points.
That is a great scene in Let it Ride.
If I advance today I'm certainly going to need help tomorrow because I haven't looked at it yet, and I'm extremely busy this week.
There is a free handicapping contest this weekend on brisnet.com. Don't say I am afraid of competition!
That is a great scene in Let it Ride.
If I advance today I'm certainly going to need help tomorrow because I haven't looked at it yet, and I'm extremely busy this week.
There is a free handicapping contest this weekend on brisnet.com. Don't say I am afraid of competition!
December 13th, 2012 at 7:34:03 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleCoaches Choice is a good pick.
But here are the reasons I'm not picking her:
2 starts - Never on the board
She'll probably receive 40%+ support, I try not to go with the crowd
2 year old fillies, ESPECIALLY UP FOR A TAG, are the least reliable of any group of horses.
Huge drop in class. The maiden gets broken today, boys!
December 13th, 2012 at 9:17:51 AM
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Scratches just got released. There is one scratch in Pink Leninade's race. She's now in a 5 horse race, and just needs to finish 3rd. So I'm officially sticking with it. No scratches in Race 1.
I'm sorry that I have to root against Coaches Choice. But her not showing adds a lot to my EV. And she's a terrible bet and what is going to be 3-5. It'll probably pay $3.20 / $2.20 / $2.10. Not what I want to sign up for.
We'll see....
I'm sorry that I have to root against Coaches Choice. But her not showing adds a lot to my EV. And she's a terrible bet and what is going to be 3-5. It'll probably pay $3.20 / $2.20 / $2.10. Not what I want to sign up for.
We'll see....
December 13th, 2012 at 10:40:30 AM
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How can you say it's going to be 3:5? I mean, I'm not arguing that won't happen, just wondering how you can be so sure already 1.5 hours before the race?
Plus, even if that does happen, it'll be the easiest $34.25 I made all day long! LoL
Plus, even if that does happen, it'll be the easiest $34.25 I made all day long! LoL
December 13th, 2012 at 11:41:57 AM
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People overbet favorites. Especially in a short field. Especially at Hawthorne. Maybe it'll be even money, maybe 4-5, but I'll be shocked if it goes off as more than 1-1.
At 28 minutes to post, she's 4-5.
At 28 minutes to post, she's 4-5.
December 13th, 2012 at 11:42:58 AM
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How's this, if Coaches Choice is going to show, I hope she wins.
December 13th, 2012 at 11:56:16 AM
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23.68% selected #04 Coaches Choice in race 1
22.37% selected #03 Cub's Thunder in race 3
13.16% selected #02 Royal Candidate in race 2
9.21% selected #02 Proper Empire in race 7
9.21% selected #06 Pink Leninade in race 3
5.26% selected #01 Harborton in race 4
3.95% selected #06 Metonga Mist in race 1
2.63% selected #02 Dontbetellinme in race 4
2.63% selected #02 Millies Star in race 1
1.32% selected #07 Wicklow in race 8
1.32% selected #03 Artful Bee in race 6
22.37% selected #03 Cub's Thunder in race 3
13.16% selected #02 Royal Candidate in race 2
9.21% selected #02 Proper Empire in race 7
9.21% selected #06 Pink Leninade in race 3
5.26% selected #01 Harborton in race 4
3.95% selected #06 Metonga Mist in race 1
2.63% selected #02 Dontbetellinme in race 4
2.63% selected #02 Millies Star in race 1
1.32% selected #07 Wicklow in race 8
1.32% selected #03 Artful Bee in race 6
December 13th, 2012 at 11:59:33 AM
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FYI, my office has pooled together $160 worth of bets for Race 1 in hawthorne today just based on me talking about this thread.
We have my $100 ATB (50-35-15) on Coache's Choice
A guy with a $50 4-3-1 Trifecta (I know, right?)
Then a $10 SHOW bet on the 3, Miss Jolene, the longshot.
Funny that a group of guys in West Virginia have that much vested interest in a meaningless race in Illinois. LoL
We have my $100 ATB (50-35-15) on Coache's Choice
A guy with a $50 4-3-1 Trifecta (I know, right?)
Then a $10 SHOW bet on the 3, Miss Jolene, the longshot.
Funny that a group of guys in West Virginia have that much vested interest in a meaningless race in Illinois. LoL
December 13th, 2012 at 12:02:06 PM
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Go Miss Jolene! 21-1.
Only $8 is on her to show, because the simulcast money hasn't been co-mingled yet. Funny.
Only $8 is on her to show, because the simulcast money hasn't been co-mingled yet. Funny.
December 13th, 2012 at 12:08:00 PM
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I bet thru Xpressbet.Com, I have no idea how long it takes my bets to co-mingle, but I have a receipt that can verify a $10 SHOW bet on her.
December 13th, 2012 at 12:14:12 PM
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Coaches went off at 1-2. Finished 2nd. Wish I would have picked her... Sorry you didn't get your win bet...
December 13th, 2012 at 12:15:21 PM
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Quote: mwalz9I bet thru Xpressbet.Com, I have no idea how long it takes my bets to co-mingle, but I have a receipt that can verify a $10 SHOW bet on her.
Oh, I believe you. I just thought it was funny. 55-1, sorry he didn't win either...
December 13th, 2012 at 12:18:51 PM
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I netted -$49.25. Oh Well. That's gambling.
December 13th, 2012 at 12:20:16 PM
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Is there a fee? Why wasn't it less?
December 13th, 2012 at 12:32:06 PM
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$100 ATB.
$50 to win. -$50
$35 to place. +$38.50
$15 to show. +15.75
So I actually netted -$45.75, sorry.
I posted the $10 SHOW and $50 TRIFECTA for co-workers. They werent my bets.
$50 to win. -$50
$35 to place. +$38.50
$15 to show. +15.75
So I actually netted -$45.75, sorry.
I posted the $10 SHOW and $50 TRIFECTA for co-workers. They werent my bets.
December 13th, 2012 at 12:45:44 PM
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ok 45.75 makes sense. Still sucks, sorry.
December 13th, 2012 at 1:13:12 PM
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And I'm knocked out in a 5 horse race when I finish last.
This place is a curse.
This place is a curse.
December 13th, 2012 at 1:13:29 PM
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Is there a "Nuke Thread" button?
December 13th, 2012 at 1:22:25 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleIs there a "Nuke Thread" button?
We tried Finn, I mean as far as i was concerned the first race was only a 4 horse field. Gonna look at the charts now.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 13th, 2012 at 1:25:01 PM
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Dude, we tried to tell you!
Please, do me a favor, just let me know when the next one of these are!
Please, do me a favor, just let me know when the next one of these are!
December 13th, 2012 at 1:29:57 PM
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Coaches Chopice gor banged across at start, bumped at 1/2 mile pole. No execuses, just that this filly had early speed in 4 horse field.
Was taking big drop in class, and 1st time starter was 11 back, the dog that finished 47 back last race, 51 back in this.
3rd race chart not up yet, but there was another horse with better early, plus everybody had early speed. Was scared of speed duel after 2 month layoff. Waiting for chart.
Was taking big drop in class, and 1st time starter was 11 back, the dog that finished 47 back last race, 51 back in this.
3rd race chart not up yet, but there was another horse with better early, plus everybody had early speed. Was scared of speed duel after 2 month layoff. Waiting for chart.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
