SONBP2
• Posts: 289
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
December 7th, 2012 at 9:54:04 AM permalink
I heard on the Dan Patrick Radio Show, this morning December 7, the follwing stat: in college football, the national title game, the favorite has won and covered against the spread or the underdog has won outright for the past 14 consecutive years. ***Side note: I am not sure how this stat was determined since the national title game through the BCS has not been in effect for 14 years, so there may be some issues with the stat from that point of view.*** However, despite the questionable determination of the national title game, this year Alabama is currently a 9.5 or 10 point favorite over Notre Dame. Notre Dame is +270 to +290 to win the game outright. For those not familiar with sports betting you would have to bet \$110 on Alabama -10 to win \$100 and for every \$100 you bet on Notre Dame to win outright you would receive a \$270 profit.

So assuming you bet \$110 on Alabama -10 and you bet \$100 on Notre Dame to win you would be guaranteed to break even should one of those two events occur. The other possibility is Alabama wins, but by less than the 10 points requried to win the bet, thus resulting in a \$210 loss.

So what is the best way to exploit this wager, should you by into the trend that one of the two events will occur?

Other interesting notes about the college bowl games this year: (1) All SEC teams are favored in the bowl games and (2) all Big10 teams are underdogs in their bowl games.
MidwestAP
• Posts: 1264
Joined: Feb 19, 2012
December 7th, 2012 at 10:09:00 AM permalink
IF you believe the trend will continue why not bet \$55 on the Notre Dame money line and \$100 (plus the \$10) on 'Bama -10. If the money line is ND +280, you would secure a profit of \$44 with a Notre Dame victory (\$154-\$110) and a profit of \$45 with a 'Bama cover (\$100-\$55). Profit either way.

Of course this still leaves open the possibility of losing \$165 if 'Bama wins but doesn't cover.
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11177
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
December 7th, 2012 at 10:15:07 AM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

I heard on the Dan Patrick Radio Show, this morning December 7, the follwing stat: in college football, the national title game, the favorite has won and covered against the spread or the underdog has won outright for the past 14 consecutive years. ***Side note: I am not sure how this stat was determined since the national title game through the BCS has not been in effect for 14 years, so there may be some issues with the stat from that point of view.*** However, despite the questionable determination of the national title game, this year Alabama is currently a 9.5 or 10 point favorite over Notre Dame. Notre Dame is +270 to +290 to win the game outright. For those not familiar with sports betting you would have to bet \$110 on Alabama -10 to win \$100 and for every \$100 you bet on Notre Dame to win outright you would receive a \$270 profit.

So assuming you bet \$110 on Alabama -10 and you bet \$100 on Notre Dame to win you would be guaranteed to break even should one of those two events occur. The other possibility is Alabama wins, but by less than the 10 points requried to win the bet, thus resulting in a \$210 loss.

So what is the best way to exploit this wager, should you by into the trend that one of the two events will occur?

Other interesting notes about the college bowl games this year: (1) All SEC teams are favored in the bowl games and (2) all Big10 teams are underdogs in their bowl games.

I do not believe that the '14 year info' that you mention has any predictive value going forward, but if you do, then try this.....

Bet 1100 on Alabama - 110 to win 1000
Bet 600 on Notre Dame +270 to win 1620

If Alabama covers you win \$400
If Notre Dame wins you win \$520
If neither you lose \$1700
Wizard
• Posts: 26704
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
December 7th, 2012 at 12:01:09 PM permalink
I don't put much stock in statistics like this. The probability of winning 14 coin flips in a row are 1 in 16,364. Square bettors are always sniffing out such coincidences.

Reminds of the "Redskins rule." It could be said before the last election that since 1937 if the Redskins won the game immediately preceding the election then the incumbant would win the popular vote, otherwise he wouldn't. I believe this help up 18 out of 18 times. Note that in 2004 the Redskins lost and Bush lost the POPULAR vote (but won the electorial college). I would argue this is a similar kind of coincidence.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Buzzard
• Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
December 7th, 2012 at 12:20:15 PM permalink
Trends are a tout's best friend. You can always find a trend to justify your pick.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AxiomOfChoice
• Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
December 7th, 2012 at 6:30:11 PM permalink
http://xkcd.com/1122/
avargov
• Posts: 615
Joined: Aug 5, 2010
December 7th, 2012 at 8:37:20 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

I heard on the Dan Patrick Radio Show, this morning December 7, the follwing stat: in college football, the national title game, the favorite has won and covered against the spread or the underdog has won outright for the past 14 consecutive years. ***Side note: I am not sure how this stat was determined since the national title game through the BCS has not been in effect for 14 years, so there may be some issues with the stat from that point of view..

This is the 15th year of the BCS Championship. The first was in 1998. In 2006, they added an additional game, known as the BCS Championship Game. Before that, it rotated between the 4 major bowls.

Bottom line, 14 years would be corrrect.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
playstkid
• Posts: 104
Joined: Aug 5, 2012
December 9th, 2012 at 5:37:39 AM permalink
I'll take my chances and Notre Dame and the 10 points.

I suppose IF you Really believed in the trend the best thing to do would to tease Bama down to Minus 4 and ND up to 16
MidwestAP