Tout Service--Mathmatically impossible?

Somehow yesterday I received a call from a Tout Service asking me to pay for a pick, I believe they were asking $100 per pick. The gave me the whole spiel about how good their service was, "documented 63% winning rate, we supply picks 363 days a year (there are 2 days a year when no major US sports are played), and that they would give me a free winner tonight to prove their talent." I tell him I have no money and don't gamble anymore. He says, "Well here is my winner for tonight, Washington (+7), final score 17-14 Washington to win outright." Now I actually did think this was the right play, I had previously looked at the game and told a few buddies that Washington was a great pick last night. Washington won 17-13.

Here is my question though: Even if the Tout Service was honest, which I don't believe they are, and they did win at 63%, but charged me a $100 per pick how much would I have to bet to be profitable? Lets assume a few things to make this equation possible: (1) Paid picks for the year costs me $36,300 ($100 x 363), (2) the line on the game is always -110 (I have to bet $110 to win $100), and (3) I am going to win 63% of the bets, approximately 229 out of 363.

Here is what I came up with:

Total Wins: 229
Total Losses: 134
Paid picks cost: $36,300
Betting $1100 per game: $399,300
Expected Loss for losing picks: $147,400
Expected win for winning picks: $229,000
Expected Profit: $45,300

Would this be a good investment if you could really find someone that could pick at 63%, but charged you for every pick?

I don't think we need discuss the OBVIOUS fact that if they could pick at 63% they wouldn't be selling their picks they would be betting their picks themselves!

If it's too good to be true...etc.

(ps, schpeal is spelled spiel, from the German word for PLAY,
sorry but my German grandmother hated spelling errors)

Quote: WongBo

If it's too good to be true...etc.

(ps, schpeal is spelled spiel, from the German word for PLAY,
sorry but my German grandmother hated spelling errors)

Correction was made. I wasn't sure about the spelling, checked google and the urban dictionary gave me a spelling of shpeal, which I didn't spell correctly either. Why was I trusting the urban dictionary? Don't ask. Thanks.

SONBP2,

To answer your question if you are betting $1,100 a game and the tout hits 63%, yes is the answer as the ROI is about 10%. However:

I have not heard of a tout hitting 63% long term. Read "Gaming the Game" by Sean Griffin. That book mentions a few cappers at 60% and they are around but rare.

Also, Billy Walters mentions a 57-58% win rate lifetime.

Also, I have never heard of a tout charging $3,000 a month. The top touts usually charge from $500-$1,000 per sport per season or $300-$400 a month.

There is a NFL contest going on here. My guess is that the winner will be above 60% for 2 reasons.
1. Positive variance
2. Small sample size of less than 100 wagers

Trivia time! As was mentioned in the OP, there are two days a year with no major sporting events. What are they?

The day before and after the MLB All-Star game. Thats too easy, Wizard.

Quote: SONBP2

Here is what I came up with:

Total Wins: 229
Total Losses: 134
Paid picks cost: $36,300
Betting $1100 per game: $399,300
Expected Loss for losing picks: $147,400
Expected win for winning picks: $229,000
Expected Profit: $45,300

Would this be a good investment if you could really find someone that could pick at 63%, but charged you for every pick?

Why did you stop there?

Plug in a 57% win rate.
I show a -$900 expected loss

63% over how many bets? And what is the variance? Laughable
The ones that can do 63% are all in secret betting syndicates, try to get into one of those groups.

How many 57%
-110 cappers lifetime are out there.
I hear only 3. And they are not verifiable.

The Wizard should start his own capper service
stating right out front that he is only the best at what he does.

He would have so much money rolling in, his wife and kids could not spend it fast enough.

deleted

7Craps,

The Wizard could start a service if the % was 55+.

I would want to work there Wizard :-)

Quote: mwalz9

The day before and after the MLB All-Star game. Thats too easy, Wizard.

I'd say 3. The two you mentioned AND the All Star game. Any event when there is a pressure to use players for courtesy sake rather than to win the game to me is not a real sporting event. Imagine how the game would be played if the MANAGER got a million dollars for winning....

Quote: Wizard

Trivia time! As was mentioned in the OP, there are two days a year with no major sporting events. What are they?

Depending on your definition of "major sporting event," there may be three.

The closest thing to a "major sporting event" on December 24 is the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl college football game. The NHL and NBA traditionally do not play on 12/24, and there are no NFL games on 12/24 this year either (12/24/2012 is a Monday, and there is no Monday Night Football game that week; I think there is a policy not to play night games on 12/24, after a Monday Night game one year lasted until something like 1 AM, which meant that a number of people had to choose between football and the Christmas midnight church service).

Anytime some one wants to tout you a game you only need ask yourself one question....if they were really that good would they need you.

Quote: sodawater

The way a lot of these touts work is that week 1, they call 1000 people. They tell half of them that Stanford is the lock of the year and half that Washington is the lock of the year.

Week 2, they call the 500 people they told Washington, and pick another game. A is the lock for 250, B is the lock for 250.

Week 3, same thing, they call the 250 that got it right and tell 125 of them one thing and 125 of them another.

By week 4 they have 125 people who think they are completely spot on. Then they ask for money for a pick.

This is essentially what I was going to post. It's an old con, but very effective.

Quote: playstkid

Anytime some one wants to tout you a game you only need ask yourself one question....if they were really that good would they need you.

Do you want Walter Abrams as your finacial manager?

Its easier with highly volatile stocks.
Send out ten thousand BUY recommendations and ten thousand SELL recommendations.
Next week take your successful list and send out five thousand Buy and five thousand Sell recommendations ...
On the third week you send out 2,500 emails asking for a one hundred dollar fee.... after all, you've a great track record.

If a perfect tout existed, someone from the racetrack would come around and shoot him.
All less than perfect touts exist in a world full of hopefuls who willingly believe the claimed "track records" and willingly believe that such past records, even if true, will apply to future recommendations.

So horse races, stock markets or football games... its all pretty much the same thing: Their crystal ball is no better than yours. And the price you pay is the price of your faith or the price of your desperation.