Juice question
August 2nd, 2012 at 2:25:10 PM
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I think that a capper at a 55% win rate has a 5.5% advantage at -110 to win 100. What is the advantage at reduced juice of -105 to win 100?
Thanks again!!!
Thanks again!!!
August 2nd, 2012 at 2:40:25 PM
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Well, a 55% win rate is 11 wins and 9 losses out of 20 bets.
Total bet in 20 bets = 2200
Profit = (gain from 11 wins) - (loss from 9 losses) = 1100 - 990 = 110
Advantage = 110 / 2200 = 5%
If you reduce the bets from 110 to 105:
Total bet in 20 bets = 2100
Profit = 1100 - 945 = 155
Advantage = 155 / 2100 = 7.381%
Total bet in 20 bets = 2200
Profit = (gain from 11 wins) - (loss from 9 losses) = 1100 - 990 = 110
Advantage = 110 / 2200 = 5%
If you reduce the bets from 110 to 105:
Total bet in 20 bets = 2100
Profit = 1100 - 945 = 155
Advantage = 155 / 2100 = 7.381%
August 2nd, 2012 at 2:45:06 PM
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Yep. I get the same thing using a HE formula
=((((100/110)+1)*0.55)-1)*100
= 5%
=((((100/105)+1)*0.55)-1)*100
7.381%
=((((100/110)+1)*0.55)-1)*100
= 5%
=((((100/105)+1)*0.55)-1)*100
7.381%
I Heart Vi Hart
August 2nd, 2012 at 3:11:04 PM
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Thanks guys and girls!!
That sure shows that it pays to shop lines and juice!!! There is a huge difference with those numbers.
It would surely reduce variance also
That sure shows that it pays to shop lines and juice!!! There is a huge difference with those numbers.
It would surely reduce variance also
August 2nd, 2012 at 3:22:49 PM
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Yep.
=(((100/105)+1)*(SQRT(0.55*0.45)))*105
101.9862123
=(((100/110)+1)*(SQRT(0.55*0.45)))*110
104.4736809
and your EV / SD is even higher. That is the best news!
added:
Almost forgot.
With the 100/105 bets you still are a little higher at 5.0380952% edge
with only a 53.8% win rate
54% rate = 5.4285714% edge
Sally
=(((100/105)+1)*(SQRT(0.55*0.45)))*105
101.9862123
=(((100/110)+1)*(SQRT(0.55*0.45)))*110
104.4736809
and your EV / SD is even higher. That is the best news!
added:
Almost forgot.
With the 100/105 bets you still are a little higher at 5.0380952% edge
with only a 53.8% win rate
54% rate = 5.4285714% edge
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 2nd, 2012 at 3:38:22 PM
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Good luck finding a nickle line.
August 2nd, 2012 at 3:43:08 PM
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Thanks...can someone post what the % is at -105 to win 100 at:
1. 53%
2. 54% 5.428%
3. 55%
4. 56%
1. 53%
2. 54% 5.428%
3. 55%
4. 56%
August 2nd, 2012 at 3:47:33 PM
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5dimes
plenty of nickle lines except baseball which actually does have a 5 cent line over night
Does Bovada have 5 cent line?
plenty of nickle lines except baseball which actually does have a 5 cent line over night
Does Bovada have 5 cent line?
August 2nd, 2012 at 3:56:36 PM
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removed
silly
silly
I Heart Vi Hart
August 2nd, 2012 at 4:01:43 PM
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Pick-em Nickles ?
