Walking away from +EV because of a bad streak
One is to 200x bet and the other is $300 no matter the bet size.
I don't understand that.
I'm assuming they both have $ since they have the casino's top tier card. ($1M+ coin-in)
I sometimes follow them around (discretely).
For the $300 one, He was playing $8/spin and lost pretty quick.
I got on and hit it within the first $100.
For the 200x one, I lost $ trying to hit it every time he gave up.
Sure, small sample size but the game was +EV when he got it and even more +EV with an additional 200x bet pumped into it.
The worse was losing 500x bet.
After the 500x loss, I was thinking about limiting my loses to around break even on a non-Must hit.
ie: I estimate how much i would win on avg and only put in 125% of that amount into the machine
At what point would you give up, if any? (assuming you still have lots of cash)
And why at that point?
Quote: 100xOddsI know a couple of AP's that limit their loses.
One is to 200x bet and the other is $300 no matter the bet size.
I don't understand that.
I'm assuming they both have $ since they have the casino's top tier card. ($1M+ coin-in)
I sometimes follow them around (discretely).
For the $300 one, He was playing $8/spin and lost pretty quick.
I got on and hit it within the first $100.
For the 200x one, I lost $ trying to hit it every time he gave up.
Sure, small sample size but the game was +EV when he got it and even more +EV with an additional 200x bet pumped into it.
The worse was losing 500x bet.
After the 500x loss, I was thinking about limiting my loses to around break even on a non-Must hit.
ie: I estimate how much i would win on avg and only put in 125% of that amount into the machine
At what point would you give up, if any? (assuming you still have lots of cash)
And why at that point?
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When I was APing video poker regularly I had a daily stop loss limit that was pretty high. In my case it was more psychological and I knew my play would still be there tomorrow. It lasted over a couple of years. I only reached my stop loss limit once.
Quote: 100xOddsI know a couple of AP's that limit their loses.
One is to 200x bet and the other is $300 no matter the bet size.
I don't understand that.
I'm assuming they both have $ since they have the casino's top tier card. ($1M+ coin-in)
I sometimes follow them around (discretely).
For the $300 one, He was playing $8/spin and lost pretty quick.
I got on and hit it within the first $100.
For the 200x one, I lost $ trying to hit it every time he gave up.
Sure, small sample size but the game was +EV when he got it and even more +EV with an additional 200x bet pumped into it.
The worse was losing 500x bet.
After the 500x loss, I was thinking about limiting my loses to around break even on a non-Must hit.
ie: I estimate how much i would win on avg and only put in 125% of that amount into the machine
At what point would you give up, if any? (assuming you still have lots of cash)
And why at that point?
link to original post
I might give up if I suffered a stroke or heart attack, but I would still try to get a few more spins in before I fell to the floor unconscious.
I would never quit just because I already lost a lot on the play.
But to some that is fun, win or lose.
Quote: 100xOddsI know a couple of AP's that limit their loses.
…(clipped)
I sometimes follow them around (discretely).
…(clipped)
That’s an excellent AP move right there!
Quote: Sulfur5989I have seen other AP leave an EV+ game when they hit a good win on it even if the play is still there. Personnally i don't do either i play till the play is over win or lose.
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For most persistent-state games, the early part of the chase is deeply -EV. The +EV near the end of long chases offsets this -EV phase. If someone takes plays that are slightly +EV and abandons some fraction of them due to an early win, then they are probably playing -EV. The damage is ameliorated if they only ever abandon marginal plays after a win very early in the chase when they have built up little or no in-game value. For example, they might not have moved the meters on Regal Riches at all.
Think how absurd it would be to abandon a River Dragons minor at $491. Every spin up to that point is hugely -EV.
For example, the EV of the game is -EV at the current meter, but I have a promotion that brings the overall play to +EV. The promotion is capped. When I hit the cap, I walk away until the next day that I have a promotion that makes it worth my time again. Every good promotion has a cap, so this situation comes up regularly.
I have chased some progressive in this manner for months until either I or someone else hit the jackpot.
If you are playing +EV based solely on a must-hit meter, then the play can never go to a lower EV state unless you hit the jackpot. If you are getting a big loss rebate, the EV drops like a rock when you hit your loss cap.
Quote: MDawgStanding (or sitting) in front of a machine pushing buttons would be a form of death, to me, win or lose.
But to some that is fun, win or lose.
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Doing it in the smoking section pretty much is a form of death.
Quote: Sulfur5989I have seen other AP leave an EV+ game when they hit a good win on it even if the play is still there. Personnally i don't do either i play till the play is over win or lose.
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If that is the case you have not hit a bad losing streak yet. If you lost your whole net worth on a play and continued to borrow money while losing until no one else will lend you money, how do you continue?
I only hit my stop loss once in about 30 years of AP play, but it did happen.
Quote: Sulfur5989i would never take a play that would jeopardize my whole net worth, i manage my bankroll.
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Any play could jeopardize your whole bankroll if on a losing streak. Flipping a coin could go against you for a million plays in a row.
How can a modest coin-in must-hit progressive play jeopardize your whole bankroll? Even if you never get a penny back from the base game, you have a hard limit on how much you can lose before you hit the jackpot.Quote: DRichQuote: Sulfur5989i would never take a play that would jeopardize my whole net worth, i manage my bankroll.
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Any play could jeopardize your whole bankroll if on a losing streak. Flipping a coin could go against you for a million plays in a row.
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I assert that I know that flipping a coin cannot go against you for a million plays in a row with much more certainty than I know most other 'facts'.
Quote: MentalHow can a modest coin-in must-hit progressive play jeopardize your whole bankroll? Even if you never get a penny back from the base game, you have a hard limit on how much you can lose before you hit the jackpot.Quote: DRichQuote: Sulfur5989i would never take a play that would jeopardize my whole net worth, i manage my bankroll.
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Any play could jeopardize your whole bankroll if on a losing streak. Flipping a coin could go against you for a million plays in a row.
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I assert that I know that flipping a coin cannot go against you for a million plays in a row with much more certainty than I know most other 'facts'.
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I agree on a Must Hit, but the post just said a +EV play.
