Hexbreak3r
Poll
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 | 9 votes (52.94%) | ||
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| | 2 votes (11.76%) | ||
| | 3 votes (17.64%) | ||
| | 2 votes (11.76%) | ||
| | 3 votes (17.64%) | ||
| | 1 vote (5.88%) | ||
| | 3 votes (17.64%) | ||
| | 2 votes (11.76%) |
17 members have voted
The thrust of this game is the visible positions on the reels expand gradually from 3 to 8. When a reel expands beyond the 8th position, the player is awarded either a fixed win, bonus game, or progressive and then that reel resets to three visible positions.
This is a "ways to win" game. The expected value of pay table wins will be proportional to the product of the visible positions of all five reels. For example, in the image above there are 6*4*3*6*6 = 2,592 ways to win.
For now you may find the rules only over at Wizard of Odds. I welcome any comments and corrections on them.
The big question is when is the game positive? Based on preliminary discussion with machine AP's, a good rule of thumb is either:
1. 6,000 or more ways to win.
2. Any reel has the full eight positions visible.
I believe it is possible to have a positive game in other situations too, which I hope to discuss here.
For now, I welcome all comments on when the game is in a positive state.
The question for the poll is do you play Hexbreak3r and/or what's your opinion on the 6,000 figure?
Although the horseshoe usually advances the reel by just one position, I have seen it advance the reel by as many as four positions.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Quote: DogHandWiz,
Although the horseshoe usually advances the reel by just one position, I have seen it advance the reel by as many as four positions.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
link to original post
Thanks for confirming that. I thought I saw it advance two myself, but the rule screen don't indicate that as a possibility, but nor do they deny it.
Finding this game at 6,000 ways to win is a luxury that you probably won't be lucky enough to have.
Quote: McSweeneyThe middle reel is extremely valuable and warrants special consideration if it's high.
Finding this game at 6,000 ways to win is a luxury that you probably won't be lucky enough to have.
link to original post
I noticed the pay table pays the same for 3, 4, and 5 symbols. That means that the middle reel is twice as important as the other four, since it's the only one that runs through both sides.
Let's label the reels, from left to right: a,b,c,d,e.
The value of the pay table wins should be proportional to abc + cde = c*(ab+de).
That said, the player should label the reels, from left to right -- a,b,c,d,e.
Then, calculate c*(ab + de). Let's call this the "combinations."
The average combinations will be 239. The player should play if it is 287 or more. Of course, this should depend on how liberal the casino is with slots and the value of the points.
The middle reel in this game goes up very slowly. If it is at least so-high, then the player should sit and play until it gets to the top and the progressive hit. It may not be positive every spin, but the other four reels will go up and down, averaging at 4.93 symbols high, for an average positive state.
How high is "so-high"? If find that answer to be six.
In other words, always play if the middle reel is at least six and don't stop until it reaches the top.
Comments?
Quote: WizardTo expand on my post above, here is a rough strategy. It is based on the assumption that 50% of the return comes from line pays, 40% to the bonus and Luck Zone wins, and 10% to the house.
That said, the player should label the reels, from left to right -- a,b,c,d,e.
Then, calculate c*(ab + de). Let's call this the "combinations."
The average combinations will be 239. The player should play if it is 287 or more. Of course, this should depend on how liberal the casino is with slots and the value of the points.
The middle reel in this game goes up very slowly. If it is at least so-high, then the player should sit and play until it gets to the top and the progressive hit. It may not be positive every spin, but the other four reels will go up and down, averaging at 4.93 symbols high, for an average positive state.
How high is "so-high"? If find that answer to be six.
In other words, always play if the middle reel is at least six and don't stop until it reaches the top.
Comments?
link to original post
The last two times that an AP acquaintance played at three ticks away from the progressive, he ran afoul. Both times, the progressive was higher than usual, yet he was still down a couple hundred after hitting on the middle to lower bet options. I know it’s a small sample
How do AP’s decide if it’s just variance, a lower machine setting, or (fill in the gap)?
Most of his better plays are when the Bonus is in range. How close (or how high) do you think those reels need to be?
Quote: WizardThat said, the player should label the reels, from left to right -- a,b,c,d,e.
Then, calculate c*(ab + de). Let's call this the "combinations."
I'm having second thoughts about this.
However, before getting to that, let me emphasize the unusual nature of the pay table that pays the same for 3, 4, or 5 in a row.
Next, I want to remind everybody this is a "ways to win" game, not a pay table game. Let's look at the following screenshot, as an example.
In this spin, the player has 2 crows on reel 3, 4 on reel 4 (including the two wilds), and 2 on reel 5.
2*4*2 = 16
The base win for three crows is 10. However, the player bet 240, which is 3x more than the minimum bet of 80, so win is multiplied by 3.
Thus, the entire win is 16*10*3 = 480 credits. You can see the 480 in the lower center of the screen. If this were a 1800-payline game, the player would win 15x as much for the ways the paylines could go through reels 1 and 2.
Getting back to the beginning, I think my c*(ab + de) formula puts too much emphasis on the middle reel. Although the player isn't paid more for getting 4 or 5 symbols, above 3, there are more "ways to win," according to how long those reels are as well as how much the symbols are stacked, which they generally are.
Let me think about it.
Quote: camaplQuote: WizardTo expand on my post above, here is a rough strategy. It is based on the assumption that 50% of the return comes from line pays, 40% to the bonus and Luck Zone wins, and 10% to the house.
That said, the player should label the reels, from left to right -- a,b,c,d,e.
Then, calculate c*(ab + de). Let's call this the "combinations."
The average combinations will be 239. The player should play if it is 287 or more. Of course, this should depend on how liberal the casino is with slots and the value of the points.
The middle reel in this game goes up very slowly. If it is at least so-high, then the player should sit and play until it gets to the top and the progressive hit. It may not be positive every spin, but the other four reels will go up and down, averaging at 4.93 symbols high, for an average positive state.
How high is "so-high"? If find that answer to be six.
In other words, always play if the middle reel is at least six and don't stop until it reaches the top.
Comments?
link to original post
The last two times that an AP acquaintance played at three ticks away from the progressive, he ran afoul. Both times, the progressive was higher than usual, yet he was still down a couple hundred after hitting on the middle to lower bet options. I know it’s a small sample
How do AP’s decide if it’s just variance, a lower machine setting, or (fill in the gap)?
Most of his better plays are when the Bonus is in range. How close (or how high) do you think those reels need to be?
link to original post
The center reel is the majority of the advantage and then getting lucky for reels B & D to be high at the same time to increase the odds of getting numerous bonuses.
At my locals the campers take it as soon as the middle is on 5. Ways to win doesn't even matter. The hope is to get enough bonuses and or get the progressive in one of the bonuses. Part of the benefit to this game is all the points accumulated by fast tapping the machine for 4-6+ hrs. That goes to tier benefits and drawing entries. Breaking even or losing a small amount would still be considered a win.
The other day I lost $100 on $.80 bet the bonus was 1 away on reel A and 1 away from $8 on reel B. That said if the bonus is 1 away I'd always play hoping to get the bonus reasonably soon and getting a better bonus. I wouldn't play 2 away from the bonus. The outside reels advance much slower than reels B and D. Anything 1 away on 2 or 4 I'd play off.
Quote: ALGThe center reel is the majority of the advantage and then getting lucky for reels B & D to be high at the same time to increase the odds of getting numerous bonuses.
link to original post
I agree the center reel is the most important. However, I am struggling with a way to quantify that in a strategy without complicated formulas.
Sacrificing advantage for simplicity, here is my strategy as I have it now. Play if any of the following are true.
- The number of combinations is at least 3,500.
- The height of reel 3 is at least six. Five is borderline.
- Any reel is under a Bonus in the Luck Zone has a height of eight.
- If reel 2 or 4 has a height of 8 and is under a win the Luck Zone of at least 20x the bet.
I have just updated my Hexbreak3r page to reflect this strategy. As always, I welcome all comments. Otherwise, I think I will close the book on this game soon.
I thank those unselfish players who have been helpful quietly behind the scenes.
Quote: WizardQuote: WizardThat said, the player should label the reels, from left to right -- a,b,c,d,e.
Then, calculate c*(ab + de). Let's call this the "combinations."
I'm having second thoughts about this.
However, before getting to that, let me emphasize the unusual nature of the pay table that pays the same for 3, 4, or 5 in a row.
Next, I want to remind everybody this is a "ways to win" game, not a pay table game. Let's look at the following screenshot, as an example.
In this spin, the player has 2 crows on reel 3, 4 on reel 4 (including the two wilds), and 2 on reel 5.
2*4*2 = 16
The base win for three crows is 10. However, the player bet 240, which is 3x more than the minimum bet of 80, so win is multiplied by 3.
Thus, the entire win is 16*10*3 = 480 credits. You can see the 480 in the lower center of the screen. If this were a 1800-payline game, the player would win 15x as much for the ways the paylines could go through reels 1 and 2.
Getting back to the beginning, I think my c*(ab + de) formula puts too much emphasis on the middle reel. Although the player isn't paid more for getting 4 or 5 symbols, above 3, there are more "ways to win," according to how long those reels are as well as how much the symbols are stacked, which they generally are.
Let me think about it.
link to original post
Wiz,
Maybe you should base your playing decision on MAX(a*b*c, c*d*e).
For example, having a distribution of (6,5,4,5,6) gives 3600 "ways", as does the distribution (6,6,4,5,5). However, if we use the above criterion, the first case has a MAX of 120, while the second has a MAX of 144, so the second distribution seems intuitively to be the more valuable.
Dog Hand
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
Quote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
link to original post
+1
I still prefer some older school methods regarding mail generation where possible, but this game definitely brought in the competition.
How did you arrive at 3500 combos as +EV?Quote: WizardSacrificing advantage for simplicity, here is my strategy as I have it now. Play if any of the following are true.
- The number of combinations is at least 3,500.
- The height of reel 3 is at least six. Five is borderline.
- Any reel is under a Bonus in the Luck Zone has a height of eight.
- If reel 2 or 4 has a height of 8 and is under a win the Luck Zone of at least 20x the bet.
link to original post
Quote: 100xOddsHow did you arrive at 3500 combos as +EV?
link to original post
I calculate the average reel will be 4.93 long.
You might ask where I got that figure and why it isn't the average of 3 and 8. It's because the longer a reel is, the more likely it is to get more horseshoes and thus move up faster. In other words, the reel expansion accelerates as it goes.
Take that to the fifth power and you have 2,903 average combinations.
I figure the total RTP is 90%, of which 50% comes from line pays. We need to get that line pay RTP to 60% to break even. 2,903 * 1.2 = 3,483. I then rounded up to 3,500.
Comments?
Quote: SeedvalueIt’s my understanding that the frequency of the shoe in the center was slightly altered after each software update. One of my largest wins on a machine came in the beginning of 2020 on a $40 bet Hex that was two away from the cat. A buddy of mine put me on to it well before most Guys were playing it. It’s not uncommon for you to have 1400 unit swings in this game even when playing at advantage. Great game
link to original post
Agreed. I believe this game has been significantly altered since it came out and isn't near as good anymore.
Quote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
link to original post
+2 This couldn't be more spot on.
Add in they take the games below +EV now too.
Quote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
link to original post
+3 even though I'm no AP
At my local casino (both of them actually), there's so many slot vultures that they pretty much spend most of the time fighting each other for plays, they ain't even discrete about what they are doing either, the slots are still there, but most of the time 3 people (probably all pulling each other's hair and claiming it's "their" machine) have already gotten to it before you can even check it. Just not worth the effort.
Quote: TheCapitalShipQuote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
link to original post
+3 even though I'm no AP
At my local casino (both of them actually), there's so many slot vultures that they pretty much spend most of the time fighting each other for plays, they ain't even discrete about what they are doing either, the slots are still there, but most of the time 3 people (probably all pulling each other's hair and claiming it's "their" machine) have already gotten to it before you can even check it. Just not worth the effort.
link to original post
Unfortunately these machines are NOT designed for advantage player's. They are designed for Ploppies to feel they have a periodic period where they can confidently win on a spin.
Because of that more members of the general public will become educated to how these machines can be vultured.
I understand the sentiment by AP's who wish this play was solely their secret but "Vulture AP only plays" are basically an oxymoron.
The Ploppies will play through just long enough to realize the value (of say the tenth spin at Golden Jungle) and transform, vampiric style into Vultures.
Get rid of the Ploppies who play for the Vultures and the games will disappear anyway.
I really don't know what you are getting at. The difference between Hex and many of the other Vulture machines is the fact that someone can get a significant amount of coin in while having positive EV the entire time, thus earning big free-play mailers for free. Even if they get very little back, it's not a big deal since they had a +EV situation.Quote: darkozQuote: TheCapitalShipQuote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
link to original post
+3 even though I'm no AP
At my local casino (both of them actually), there's so many slot vultures that they pretty much spend most of the time fighting each other for plays, they ain't even discrete about what they are doing either, the slots are still there, but most of the time 3 people (probably all pulling each other's hair and claiming it's "their" machine) have already gotten to it before you can even check it. Just not worth the effort.
link to original post
Unfortunately these machines are NOT designed for advantage player's. They are designed for Ploppies to feel they have a periodic period where they can confidently win on a spin.
Because of that more members of the general public will become educated to how these machines can be vultured.
I understand the sentiment by AP's who wish this play was solely their secret but "Vulture AP only plays" are basically an oxymoron.
The Ploppies will play through just long enough to realize the value (of say the tenth spin at Golden Jungle) and transform, vampiric style into Vultures.
Get rid of the Ploppies who play for the Vultures and the games will disappear anyway.
link to original post
It doesn't take them long to realize they can play at lower numbers and the value of looking into other machines/markets and plays. It created a situation where these guys got thousands of coin-in on slots at many locations where they normally would have avoided getting a card in the first place, like card counters often do. Now you have some well-banked former talented blackjack players forming well-organized slot teams across the country. Now card counting is their least priority. This isn't speculation, I saw it unfold before my eyes and called it before it happen.
Many of them are really good guys who I like and do business with, so I have no hate towards them. Don't hate the player, hate the game.
Quote: AxelWolfI really don't know what you are getting at. The difference between Hex and many of the other Vulture machines is the fact that someone can get a significant amount of coin in while having positive EV the entire time, thus earning big free-play mailers for free. Even if they get very little back, it's not a big deal since they had a +EV situation.Quote: darkozQuote: TheCapitalShipQuote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
link to original post
+3 even though I'm no AP
At my local casino (both of them actually), there's so many slot vultures that they pretty much spend most of the time fighting each other for plays, they ain't even discrete about what they are doing either, the slots are still there, but most of the time 3 people (probably all pulling each other's hair and claiming it's "their" machine) have already gotten to it before you can even check it. Just not worth the effort.
link to original post
Unfortunately these machines are NOT designed for advantage player's. They are designed for Ploppies to feel they have a periodic period where they can confidently win on a spin.
Because of that more members of the general public will become educated to how these machines can be vultured.
I understand the sentiment by AP's who wish this play was solely their secret but "Vulture AP only plays" are basically an oxymoron.
The Ploppies will play through just long enough to realize the value (of say the tenth spin at Golden Jungle) and transform, vampiric style into Vultures.
Get rid of the Ploppies who play for the Vultures and the games will disappear anyway.
link to original post
It doesn't take them long to realize they can play at lower numbers and the value of looking into other machines/markets and plays. It created a situation where these guys got thousands of coin-in on slots at many locations where they normally would have avoided getting a card in the first place, like card counters often do. Now you have some well-banked former talented blackjack players forming well-organized slot teams across the country. Now card counting is their least priority. This isn't speculation, I saw it unfold before my eyes and called it before it happen.
Many of them are really good guys who I like and do business with, so I have no hate towards them. Don't hate the player, hate the game.
link to original post
I suppose I was really answering Capitalship and his opining about vultures fighting over slots.
Hex is not a game I played because it wasn't in any of the markets I hit. In fact I first saw one about a year ago in Mississippi. I immediately realized the value of the game but I was just passing through and not setting anything up (it was on my pinball trip).
If I am missing something, you said Hex was +ev all the time so the mailers didn't matter so much. Even the Wizard isn't saying that. Are we both missing something here?
You miss understand what I'm saying. It can oftentimes be in a +EV state for a "long time" You can get hours of +EV play in while slam-stopping. I'm sure you can imagine what kind of coin-in someone can get while playing higher bet levels as fast as possible for hours.Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfI really don't know what you are getting at. The difference between Hex and many of the other Vulture machines is the fact that someone can get a significant amount of coin in while having positive EV the entire time, thus earning big free-play mailers for free. Even if they get very little back, it's not a big deal since they had a +EV situation.Quote: darkozQuote: TheCapitalShipQuote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
link to original post
+3 even though I'm no AP
At my local casino (both of them actually), there's so many slot vultures that they pretty much spend most of the time fighting each other for plays, they ain't even discrete about what they are doing either, the slots are still there, but most of the time 3 people (probably all pulling each other's hair and claiming it's "their" machine) have already gotten to it before you can even check it. Just not worth the effort.
link to original post
Unfortunately these machines are NOT designed for advantage player's. They are designed for Ploppies to feel they have a periodic period where they can confidently win on a spin.
Because of that more members of the general public will become educated to how these machines can be vultured.
I understand the sentiment by AP's who wish this play was solely their secret but "Vulture AP only plays" are basically an oxymoron.
The Ploppies will play through just long enough to realize the value (of say the tenth spin at Golden Jungle) and transform, vampiric style into Vultures.
Get rid of the Ploppies who play for the Vultures and the games will disappear anyway.
link to original post
It doesn't take them long to realize they can play at lower numbers and the value of looking into other machines/markets and plays. It created a situation where these guys got thousands of coin-in on slots at many locations where they normally would have avoided getting a card in the first place, like card counters often do. Now you have some well-banked former talented blackjack players forming well-organized slot teams across the country. Now card counting is their least priority. This isn't speculation, I saw it unfold before my eyes and called it before it happen.
Many of them are really good guys who I like and do business with, so I have no hate towards them. Don't hate the player, hate the game.
link to original post
I suppose I was really answering Capitalship and his opining about vultures fighting over slots.
Hex is not a game I played because it wasn't in any of the markets I hit. In fact I first saw one about a year ago in Mississippi. I immediately realized the value of the game but I was just passing through and not setting anything up (it was on my pinball trip).
If I am missing something, you said Hex was +ev all the time so the mailers didn't matter so much. Even the Wizard isn't saying that. Are we both missing something here?
link to original post
Quote: AxelWolfYou miss understand what I'm saying. It can oftentimes be in a +EV state for a "long time" You can get hours of +EV play in while slam-stopping. I'm sure you can imagine what kind of coin-in someone can get while playing higher bet levels as fast as possible for hours.Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfI really don't know what you are getting at. The difference between Hex and many of the other Vulture machines is the fact that someone can get a significant amount of coin in while having positive EV the entire time, thus earning big free-play mailers for free. Even if they get very little back, it's not a big deal since they had a +EV situation.Quote: darkozQuote: TheCapitalShipQuote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
link to original post
+3 even though I'm no AP
At my local casino (both of them actually), there's so many slot vultures that they pretty much spend most of the time fighting each other for plays, they ain't even discrete about what they are doing either, the slots are still there, but most of the time 3 people (probably all pulling each other's hair and claiming it's "their" machine) have already gotten to it before you can even check it. Just not worth the effort.
link to original post
Unfortunately these machines are NOT designed for advantage player's. They are designed for Ploppies to feel they have a periodic period where they can confidently win on a spin.
Because of that more members of the general public will become educated to how these machines can be vultured.
I understand the sentiment by AP's who wish this play was solely their secret but "Vulture AP only plays" are basically an oxymoron.
The Ploppies will play through just long enough to realize the value (of say the tenth spin at Golden Jungle) and transform, vampiric style into Vultures.
Get rid of the Ploppies who play for the Vultures and the games will disappear anyway.
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It doesn't take them long to realize they can play at lower numbers and the value of looking into other machines/markets and plays. It created a situation where these guys got thousands of coin-in on slots at many locations where they normally would have avoided getting a card in the first place, like card counters often do. Now you have some well-banked former talented blackjack players forming well-organized slot teams across the country. Now card counting is their least priority. This isn't speculation, I saw it unfold before my eyes and called it before it happen.
Many of them are really good guys who I like and do business with, so I have no hate towards them. Don't hate the player, hate the game.
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I suppose I was really answering Capitalship and his opining about vultures fighting over slots.
Hex is not a game I played because it wasn't in any of the markets I hit. In fact I first saw one about a year ago in Mississippi. I immediately realized the value of the game but I was just passing through and not setting anything up (it was on my pinball trip).
If I am missing something, you said Hex was +ev all the time so the mailers didn't matter so much. Even the Wizard isn't saying that. Are we both missing something here?
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I understand.
Still Hex would not be my first choice.
There are better plays.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jy6ftyaOn8k
Gotta vulture the different denominations and be ready to play those.
Seems the machine can run very cold while you're waiting for Horseshoe Heaven.
There's a demo mode in this video where the rules change and the horseshoes take you downward to some just reward. Cute game.
HEXBREAK3R Slot Machine G2E 2019 (#G2E2019) IGT - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wEBek4Sej0&t=0s
We COULDN'T STOP WINNING On New HEXBREAKER 3 Slot Machine! INSANE RUN With PSS! - Palm Springs Spinners - 4.92K subscribers - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lga2vMby1M8
That's all going to depend on what location, what's available, and what's required. On a pure coin basis where you have a significant overlay off the top, you would have a hard time finding something better.Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfYou miss understand what I'm saying. It can oftentimes be in a +EV state for a "long time" You can get hours of +EV play in while slam-stopping. I'm sure you can imagine what kind of coin-in someone can get while playing higher bet levels as fast as possible for hours.Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfI really don't know what you are getting at. The difference between Hex and many of the other Vulture machines is the fact that someone can get a significant amount of coin in while having positive EV the entire time, thus earning big free-play mailers for free. Even if they get very little back, it's not a big deal since they had a +EV situation.Quote: darkozQuote: TheCapitalShipQuote: AxelWolfOne might consider Hexbreaker a cursemaker since it was a big springboard that created a mass crossing over from the Blacjack community to the slots mail game. It really opened up some eyes while significantly pumping up some bankrolls. The first few blackjack guys on the scene didn't really realize the full potential of slots until it was too late, they had already let the cat out of the bag. Add that to the pandemic and newer social media and the information spread like wildfire leading to a big influx of serious competition. Some of whom are bad apples with a burn-it-out and move-on approach. I'm even seeing spitful people purposely outing plays etc over silly rivalries, egos, and various dumb BS.
It went from, "it's just slots and some mail, no big deal" to... "please everyone keep your mouths shut, because plays are getting killed left and right"
People never learn till it's too late.
🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
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+3 even though I'm no AP
At my local casino (both of them actually), there's so many slot vultures that they pretty much spend most of the time fighting each other for plays, they ain't even discrete about what they are doing either, the slots are still there, but most of the time 3 people (probably all pulling each other's hair and claiming it's "their" machine) have already gotten to it before you can even check it. Just not worth the effort.
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Unfortunately these machines are NOT designed for advantage player's. They are designed for Ploppies to feel they have a periodic period where they can confidently win on a spin.
Because of that more members of the general public will become educated to how these machines can be vultured.
I understand the sentiment by AP's who wish this play was solely their secret but "Vulture AP only plays" are basically an oxymoron.
The Ploppies will play through just long enough to realize the value (of say the tenth spin at Golden Jungle) and transform, vampiric style into Vultures.
Get rid of the Ploppies who play for the Vultures and the games will disappear anyway.
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It doesn't take them long to realize they can play at lower numbers and the value of looking into other machines/markets and plays. It created a situation where these guys got thousands of coin-in on slots at many locations where they normally would have avoided getting a card in the first place, like card counters often do. Now you have some well-banked former talented blackjack players forming well-organized slot teams across the country. Now card counting is their least priority. This isn't speculation, I saw it unfold before my eyes and called it before it happen.
Many of them are really good guys who I like and do business with, so I have no hate towards them. Don't hate the player, hate the game.
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I suppose I was really answering Capitalship and his opining about vultures fighting over slots.
Hex is not a game I played because it wasn't in any of the markets I hit. In fact I first saw one about a year ago in Mississippi. I immediately realized the value of the game but I was just passing through and not setting anything up (it was on my pinball trip).
If I am missing something, you said Hex was +ev all the time so the mailers didn't matter so much. Even the Wizard isn't saying that. Are we both missing something here?
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I understand.
Still Hex would not be my first choice.
There are better plays.
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After the movie, I walked by the machine and he was still sitting there pounding away, this time with a stack of 8 in the middle.
My question is whether some might play a stack of 5, knowing it is negative EV, to be able to go through the positive EV times with a stack of 6 to 8 on reel 3?
This was the Suncoast casino, by the way, which has pretty good video poker and keno. They cut me off from mail years ago, but it was pretty generous before they did.
Why did they cut you off?Quote: WizardThis was the Suncoast casino, by the way, which has pretty good video poker and keno. They cut me off from mail years ago, but it was pretty generous before they did.
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Quote: 100xOddsWhy did they cut you off?
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They never said, but it's easy to guess playing only their best video poker on big multiplier days.
Quote: SeedvalueCertain boards have good enough setups with a high enough progressive that hustlers often try to “push” the middle. If the fail they could play off the setup then wait for a customer to build up the board again. One of my long time friends actually built a very accurate model on this game he’s not a member here I will see if he will join and share it with you.
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Thanks. I'd be interested in his thoughts.
Quote: WizardQuote: 100xOddsWhy did they cut you off?
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They never said, but it's easy to guess playing only their best video poker on big multiplier days.
It's not uncommon for a casino to no-mail a person because they play low edge games and get lots of comps.
It's much more unusual to win twenty or thirty thousand dollars a day, day after day and week after week and still get comped but some people report it happens.
I've had some success snapping off one aways on the 2 and 4 columns, but I'm pretty sure it's a break-even play at best.
As an aside, I drive Uber and once had an IGT engineer in my cab. I told him I loved Hexbr3aker and he said, "The math is very interesting on that game." :)
Well, I will say this. You can never complain about people sharing information online again =D.Quote: AxelWolf<redacted super totally secret stuff>
Since I don't want to be called selfish, because that would be a bit rude, I'll add that you should also look in to the specific reels. For example reels 1 and 5 have a certain known % chance to spawn free games, which have a certain EV attached of course. Also, reels 2 and 4 move the fastest, so that can change positioning/calculations for EV based on the value of the mini-jackpot (or whatever you want to call it).
Lastly, on the topic as a whole... This really has brought all the people out of the wood-works. I'm sure many are good people and perhaps AP's in other aspects of the casino that are now venturing on to slots. However, at one of my local-ish shops there are LITERALLY 12 people or so there daily... at a place where only 2 vultures could handle the entire shop all day. At any 1 given time there are at least 3-4 vultures just doing laps (this is not a very big place either). From my limited interactions with them, because I don't want to be associated with them since several of them LITERALLY treat it as a 12-8pm job EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE WEEK, they happen not to be the best ones. They fight over machines, elbow ploppies out of the seat when a machine is "about" to become available, and as I already mentioned they're just literally throwing it in the casinos face because they must not understand yet that their activity is undesirable to the casino, and that the hammer will come down eventually. Thus, these "small releases" of information have been bad for us all as a whole, well unless you're getting the views/clicks from disseminating said information...
I've had fun thought experiments with this... Maybe I should just make a YouTube channel and out every single slot play, in full detail, so that they even get put out of business? Probably a lot of ad revenue in those clicks once people learn I'm telling the real truth about how to really beat casinos and not just another scammer. Maybe even do media tours with news stations, being a listed "professional gambler" on my taxes and all?
...sh*t maybe next I'll start doing hole carding seminars and even give out all the casinos in my black book with every dealer name, game, shift, etc, etc?
I trust in myself to find ways to win where others don't, so much I quit my 10+ year career for it. I'll be fine... so what's stopping me? My selfishness?
Quote: RomesWell, I will say this. You can never complain about people sharing information online again =D.Quote: AxelWolf<redacted super totally secret stuff>
Since I don't want to be called selfish, because that would be a bit rude, I'll add that you should also look in to the specific reels. For example reels 1 and 5 have a certain known % chance to spawn free games, which have a certain EV attached of course. Also, reels 2 and 4 move the fastest, so that can change positioning/calculations for EV based on the value of the mini-jackpot (or whatever you want to call it).
Lastly, on the topic as a whole... This really has brought all the people out of the wood-works. I'm sure many are good people and perhaps AP's in other aspects of the casino that are now venturing on to slots. However, at one of my local-ish shops there are LITERALLY 12 people or so there daily... at a place where only 2 vultures could handle the entire shop all day. At any 1 given time there are at least 3-4 vultures just doing laps (this is not a very big place either). From my limited interactions with them, because I don't want to be associated with them since several of them LITERALLY treat it as a 12-8pm job EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE WEEK, they happen not to be the best ones. They fight over machines, elbow ploppies out of the seat when a machine is "about" to become available, and as I already mentioned they're just literally throwing it in the casinos face because they must not understand yet that their activity is undesirable to the casino, and that the hammer will come down eventually. Thus, these "small releases" of information have been bad for us all as a whole, well unless you're getting the views/clicks from disseminating said information...
I've had fun thought experiments with this... Maybe I should just make a YouTube channel and out every single slot play, in full detail, so that they even get put out of business? Probably a lot of ad revenue in those clicks once people learn I'm telling the real truth about how to really beat casinos and not just another scammer. Maybe even do media tours with news stations, being a listed "professional gambler" on my taxes and all?
...sh*t maybe next I'll start doing hole carding seminars and even give out all the casinos in my black book with every dealer name, game, shift, etc, etc?
I trust in myself to find ways to win where others don't, so much I quit my 10+ year career for it. I'll be fine... so what's stopping me? My selfishness?
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This is what has held me back from publishing my book I have mentioned for the last eight years or so.
Obviously my book is finished. It doesn't take me that long to write. But I don't want to risk the Golden goose just yet.
As for Hexbreaker, I just don't see much value in it. I understand Axel's comments before he redacted them but I have played Hexbreaker and trust me, there are much better slots to do card building.
Oh I also don't find much value in Hex's anymore. Mostly because casinos have learned also about said information (which will always happen in time anyways), but also as mentioned prior people (even degenerates) learn eventually to start taking them earlier for other reasons. Thus either the machines are removed or you only ever see them pretty much reset.Quote: darkoz...As for Hexbreaker, I just don't see much value in it. I understand Axel's comments before he redacted them but I have played Hexbreaker and trust me, there are much better slots to do card building.
My point was more so the comment that not contributing to hurting your profession is apparently considered "selfish." I think there can be respect both ways. Respect that people don't want to give up their livelihoods for clicks (to which they see zero ad revenue return), and respect that some people want to document and show public people the math behind interesting things, such as actually beating machines in casinos.
I was just shocked at how much you guys are discussing other things that the new army of vultures clearly doesn't know about... otherwise they wouldn't be so brazen and stupid with their approach.
Quote: Wizard
Sacrificing advantage for simplicity, here is my strategy as I have it now. Play if any of the following are true.
- The number of combinations is at least 3,500.
I received a Twitter DM on Jan 28, 2020 saying that 4,000 ways was a +EV play. I'd say it held true.
Quote: WizardQuote: 100xOddsHow did you arrive at 3500 combos as +EV?
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I calculate the average reel will be 4.93 long.
You might ask where I got that figure and why it isn't the average of 3 and 8. It's because the longer a reel is, the more likely it is to get more horseshoes and thus move up faster. In other words, the reel expansion accelerates as it goes.
Take that to the fifth power and you have 2,903 average combinations.
I figure the total RTP is 90%, of which 50% comes from line pays. We need to get that line pay RTP to 60% to break even. 2,903 * 1.2 = 3,483. I then rounded up to 3,500.
Comments?
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How do you know the reel expansion accelerates, and how much does it accelerate, precisely, for each value of reel height? In other words, how much "faster" will an 8-high reel grow than a 3-high reel? 4-high? etc.
What's the breakeven # of ways on this game?Quote: rsactuaryAristocrat has a new Buffalo Ascension slot which takes on this Hexbreaker format.
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3k? 3.4k? 4k??
Quote: DevlinstormJust found a similar wheel of fortune game. Same format with a wheel of fortune style bonus. Less ap able imo due to the randomness of the wheel. Would love if the wizard started threads on those games too.
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Any strategy besides the obvious 1 away?
Quote: 100xOddsWhat's the breakeven # of ways on this game?Quote: rsactuaryAristocrat has a new Buffalo Ascension slot which takes on this Hexbreaker format.
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3k? 3.4k? 4k??Quote: DevlinstormJust found a similar wheel of fortune game. Same format with a wheel of fortune style bonus. Less ap able imo due to the randomness of the wheel. Would love if the wizard started threads on those games too.
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Any strategy besides the obvious 1 away?
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For buffalo ascension I start taking them at 3148 ways. For this picture I haven't seen this game before so I don't know
Quote: Sulfur5989
For buffalo ascension I start taking them at 3148 ways. For this picture I haven't seen this game before so I don't know
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3148???
I don't even see the people at my local take it that many ways, I've seen most take it at about 3500, with the stipulation that that still carries some risk and it being a buffalo slot I'm sure your bankroll can murdered even if you take it at the best possible setup.
Quote: darkozIt really needs to be renamed b$nkroll breaker
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More like Relationship Breaker
As in "honey, I can't go to the fancy dinner and the expensive show we scheduled because I can't leave this machine now. It will probably be another 4 hours before I'm done."
Only played a dozen times or so but 5k seems like it's good.
Quote: darkozIt really needs to be renamed b$nkroll breaker
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What can you do? I guess get your bankroll broken.
I always hear, "But, Mission, if you wait for game states like that, then you'll never get a play!"
Okay, so I'll never get a play, then. Hell do I care? Can't lose on the fringe plays you don't take. Hex is mostly for card runners, so I guess DarkOz has to take it in fringe territory, probably below 100% sometimes, I would assume (and justifiably so).
Quote: Mission146Quote: darkozIt really needs to be renamed b$nkroll breaker
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What can you do? I guess get your bankroll broken.
I always hear, "But, Mission, if you wait for game states like that, then you'll never get a play!"
Okay, so I'll never get a play, then. Hell do I care? Can't lose on the fringe plays you don't take. Hex is mostly for card runners, so I guess DarkOz has to take it in fringe territory, probably below 100% sometimes, I would assume (and justifiably so).
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I'll take a for sure advantage that I might not get often over "Well I better take this 0.01% advantage so that nobody else gets it!" and then proceed to lose money on it.
Quote: Mission146Quote: darkozIt really needs to be renamed b$nkroll breaker
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What can you do? I guess get your bankroll broken.
I always hear, "But, Mission, if you wait for game states like that, then you'll never get a play!"
Okay, so I'll never get a play, then. Hell do I care? Can't lose on the fringe plays you don't take. Hex is mostly for card runners, so I guess DarkOz has to take it in fringe territory, probably below 100% sometimes, I would assume (and justifiably so).
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As a vulture play it's just a bankroll breaker
For card running it's just okay IMO because I have much better ways to build my cards.
Quote: darkoz
As a vulture play it's just a bankroll breaker
For card running it's just okay IMO because I have much better ways to build my cards.
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(Quote clipped to remove quote-in-quote)
Singles and doubles, twos and fours.
As with a lot of vulture plays, while it may not be sexy, I think the consistent money to be made is in the low-risk and (mostly) low-reward situations. The EV adds up all the same, and as with TheCapitalShip, I tend to like the plays best where EV and Actual Results resemble one another sooner than later.
I like low volatility plays with high EV, too. But online casinos seem to hate grinders and love players who embrace volatility. There are many reasons to prefer plays with high volatility. It helps with longevity and there are many explicit and implicit loss rebates online. My bankroll is essentially infinite for all intents and purposes, and I don't mind taking the W-2Gs.Quote: Mission146Quote: darkoz
As a vulture play it's just a bankroll breaker
For card running it's just okay IMO because I have much better ways to build my cards.
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Singles and doubles, twos and fours.
As with a lot of vulture plays, while it may not be sexy, I think the consistent money to be made is in the low-risk and (mostly) low-reward situations. The EV adds up all the same, and as with TheCapitalShip, I tend to like the plays best where EV and Actual Results resemble one another sooner than later.
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Quote: MentalI like low volatility plays with high EV, too. But online casinos seem to hate grinders and love players who embrace volatility. There are many reasons to prefer plays with high volatility. It helps with longevity and there are many explicit and implicit loss rebates online. My bankroll is essentially infinite for all intents and purposes, and I don't mind taking the W-2Gs.Quote: Mission146Quote: darkoz
As a vulture play it's just a bankroll breaker
For card running it's just okay IMO because I have much better ways to build my cards.
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Singles and doubles, twos and fours.
As with a lot of vulture plays, while it may not be sexy, I think the consistent money to be made is in the low-risk and (mostly) low-reward situations. The EV adds up all the same, and as with TheCapitalShip, I tend to like the plays best where EV and Actual Results resemble one another sooner than later.
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That makes a lot of sense, given the bankroll! As you probably know, I'm a low-limit grinder with no aspiration or desire to ever be otherwise.
I don't even like being involved with high-volatility plays, much less taking them.
