Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 15308
December 5th, 2021 at 6:16:20 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

So what does he say to do? I'm not sure how many more videos I'll watch, but the closest thing to something solid I can find is 'the Goodness Ratio'.

So in this next video the professor says you should check out the Goodness Ratio, and that is determined this way: "if the top jackpot is in currency, divide it by both the denomination and the maximum credits. If the top jackpot is displayed in credits, divide it by only the maximum credits. " ... he then gives an example of 6000/3 but does not say if 2000 is good or bad or what.

In the next video I examined, he spends much the time tossing out tidbits of advice, some good, like only playing with what you can afford to lose. He again goes into the Goodness Ratio without explaining why knowing this helps. One ratio was only 800, so I guess he's saying that is bad.

I also saw your additional comment on the article (thank you!), but figured I'd respond to this here.

(Quote clipped, relevance)

The, "Goodness Ratio," tells me exactly nothing about the probability of the jackpot hitting. I also can't happen but notice that none of his many videos that I watched ever specifically mentioned that he hit a top jackpot on anything---much less actually identifying what machine he did it on.

For example, let's say we have a Ten-Spot Video Keno game by which a player can bet \$1 and hit the jackpot which we will say is \$85,500 for example purposes. His so-called, "Goodness Ratio," would be 85,500/1, which I would say would have to be phenomenal (by his standards), except for the fact that the ten spot is also 8,911,711.18:1 odds against hitting it and the overall contribution from that result would be under 1%. Given that most Video Keno paytables start somewhere in the 88-92% range (and progressives often start even lower than that), playing for this ten spot would get you killed.

I'm not saying that most slot top jackpots have such long odds against, though some of them do. A known one is Nine Quick Hits symbols on Quick Hits Platinum which is 2,073,600:1 Odds against and this is a machine found in many high limit rooms with a \$15 max bet.

This jackpot starts at 2,000x the total amount bet, so if you double that, it becomes 4,000x bet. By his, "Goodness Ratio," I suppose that it's supposed to be pretty good, but the \$30,000 extra in credits would actually only add (1/2073600 * 30000)/15 = 0.00096450617, which is not even one-tenth of one percent added to the overall return.

Overall, this jackpot would add less than two tenths of one percent to the game's overall return. From an expected value standpoint, it's pretty darn near irrelevant by itself unless it gets to a positively ridiculous number.

With that, Professor Slots is looking to sell people on delusions and simple solutions to...I don't want to say, 'Complex,' problems...but problems that are at least more complex than he is making them out to be.

Similarly, you could look at a result of five Quick Hits with odds of 230:1 and base pay being 10x total bet...which is \$150 on the \$15 bet.

If we imagine that the five QH Jackpot is at \$900 on this machine, then you would divide that by the \$15 being bet and the, "Goodness Ratio," would be 900/15 = 60.

I'd assume that he would consider that not good, but doing the same thing:

(1/230 * 900)/15 = 0.26086956521

We see that the 5QH result adds (not that you're going to see this often and maybe not ever---this is for example only) 26.087% to the return, which is huge. This would absolutely put any QHP machine in extremely positive territory.

Which is why, "Goodness Ratio," is nonsensical, irrelevant and meaningless. If the goal is to play machines that are in positive territory, then you need to know the probabilities of the jackpots even hitting, or at least have enough of a sample sizing of jackpot frequencies to make an educated guess. That's why Video Poker and Video Keno progressives are generally easier to know whether or not they are at an advantage---the probabilities are already known or can be calculated with readily available tools.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8801
Thanks for this post from:
December 5th, 2021 at 7:47:00 AM permalink
thanks, nonsense as I suspected. Yet I still hear his comment, paraphrasing, in one of those videos, "so many players are being taken advantage of by the casinos because they don't know to study the paytables of the slots" and look for this goodness ratio. He must put that stuff out and crack up laughing.

I fear we may need to brace ourselves for this guy being successful. So far I think he's likely short of that, but with @30,000 youtube subscribers at this moment he could be on his way. Somehow I doubt his website is getting it done.

But what if casinos realize he's just a joke as far as helping people win [thus costing them] and get the bright idea to help him promote himself in order to get attention for themselves and getting endorsements from him?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 15308
December 5th, 2021 at 8:03:32 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

thanks, nonsense as I suspected. Yet I still hear his comment, paraphrasing, in one of those videos, "so many players are being taken advantage of by the casinos because they don't know to study the paytables of the slots" and look for this goodness ratio. He must put that stuff out and crack up laughing.

I fear we may need to brace ourselves for this guy being successful. So far I think he's likely short of that, but with @30,000 youtube subscribers at this moment he could be on his way. Somehow I doubt his website is getting it done.

But what if casinos realize he's just a joke as far as helping people win [thus costing them] and get the bright idea to help him promote himself in order to get attention for themselves and getting endorsements from him?