Jackpot target point for online slots
At this particular online casino, many of the games have a grand jackpot in the $100k-$1m range that are hit once every few months, and a major jackpot in the $1,000-$15,000 range that are hit ~10 times a day. I have decided to target the majors since they are more attainable and seem to pay out more money cumulatively than the grands.
The downside of an online casino is that the RTP, meter movement, and "must hit by" amount are usually not published anywhere. However, the upside is that I can scrape the jackpot amounts over time to determine their range and seed amounts. Once I gather enough data, I can set an alert for when the jackpot is in a good range, and play my free credits until the jackpot is hit.
Here are my questions:
- All else being equal, is the EV of a game with a $15,000 jackpot that is seeded at $5,000 equivalent to another game with an $11,000 jackpot that is seeded at $1,000? I would presume that the base RTP for the game with the higher seeded jackpot is lower.
- Once I gather the data on several hundred major jackpot hits on each game, I can set an alert whenever the jackpot reaches a certain percentile. What would be a good percentile to start playing at? 90th? 95th? 99th? I would be playing exclusively with house money and I don't have any time constraints on these free credits, so maximizing EV is my main objective.
Thank you in advance for your input.
Quote: Mission146Before doing anything, I'd encourage you to strongly consider that these games are probably going to have a pretty sizable, "Drop," if you fail to hit the jackpot and also that potentially many others will be playing for the same jackpots at the same time. It seems like the amount of work involved wouldn't even necessarily be worth the EV gain if you're just doing it once in a while with free slot dollars and it might be more efficient just to take a high RTP game and, "Grind."
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It only took a couple of minutes to write a script to record and calculate the percentile of the jackpots, whereas it would take several hours each year to play through the free credits that I receive. Therefore, it is not a complete waste of time to do a bit of work to maximize my EV. I also understand that I am unlikely to hit one of these jackpots regardless of how much optimizing I do, and I am fine with that.
The other issue is that I have no idea what the RTP is for each game at this casino are, so I can't just pick a high RTP game and just grind through my credits. In general, I get that non-jackpot games should have higher RTP, but is there any way to verify this?
Quote: kalclink to original post
It only took a couple of minutes to write a script to record and calculate the percentile of the jackpots, whereas it would take several hours each year to play through the free credits that I receive. Therefore, it is not a complete waste of time to do a bit of work to maximize my EV. I also understand that I am unlikely to hit one of these jackpots regardless of how much optimizing I do, and I am fine with that.
The other issue is that I have no idea what the RTP is for each game at this casino are, so I can't just pick a high RTP game and just grind through my credits. In general, I get that non-jackpot games should have higher RTP, but is there any way to verify this?
You can check out Wizard's reviews for whatever software it's on for an idea. Some casinos will state the RTP on the Rules screen, but that depends on the jurisdiction (as to whether it must be done) and if it's not necessary, then depends on whether or not the casino wants to do it. Can you play the free coin on Video Poker or any Table Games?
Quote: Mission146Can you play the free coin on Video Poker or any Table Games?
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RTP is not stated on the Rules screen/pay table. For half of my credits, I have to use them on slots. For the other half, I can choose between slots, black, roulette or video poker. The RTP of the table games are not stated either, so there's no way to verify if the games are fairly randomized.
Quote: kalcQuote: Mission146Can you play the free coin on Video Poker or any Table Games?
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RTP is not stated on the Rules screen/pay table. For half of my credits, I have to use them on slots. For the other half, I can choose between slots, black, roulette or video poker. The RTP of the table games are not stated either, so there's no way to verify if the games are fairly randomized.link to original post
I guess it would depend on where the casino is licensed and whether or not it has been certified fair by one third-party, or another. For the table games, I'd also check the Terms and Conditions to make sure that they don't prohibit certain types of wagering with bonus funds, such as with Roulette, and that the playthrough requirements don't change.
Quote: Mission146I guess it would depend on where the casino is licensed and whether or not it has been certified fair by one third-party, or another. For the table games, I'd also check the Terms and Conditions to make sure that they don't prohibit certain types of wagering with bonus funds, such as with Roulette, and that the playthrough requirements don't change.
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The casino is licensed by a small European nation, and the RNG has a certification from one third-party that specializes in validating online gaming platforms. I make plenty of money from their poker platform, so I would presume that it is fair overall. I just have no idea what the RTP of their slots and table games are.
The playthrough for the bonus funds is 1x, no matter if it is through slots, video poker, blackjack or roulette. If blackjack and video poker are fair, then presumably they have higher EV at 99%+ RTP than slots at ~90%. However, I only get around $1,000 of bonus a year, so the difference in EV in the worst case is only around $100. I would need to spend time learning to play blackjack or video poker perfectly, and make perfect decisions, compared to pressing a button and letting the RNG do its thing.
Therefore, I think that spending the bonus funds on slots is probably the ideal option. Given what you know so far, do you still think that it is best to pick a random non-jackpot slot, or is there merit in targeting a jackpot?
Quote: kalcQuote: Mission146I guess it would depend on where the casino is licensed and whether or not it has been certified fair by one third-party, or another. For the table games, I'd also check the Terms and Conditions to make sure that they don't prohibit certain types of wagering with bonus funds, such as with Roulette, and that the playthrough requirements don't change.
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The casino is licensed by a small European nation, and the RNG has a certification from one third-party that specializes in validating online gaming platforms. I make plenty of money from their poker platform, so I would presume that it is fair overall. I just have no idea what the RTP of their slots and table games are.
The playthrough for the bonus funds is 1x, no matter if it is through slots, video poker, blackjack or roulette. If blackjack and video poker are fair, then presumably they have higher EV at 99%+ RTP than slots at ~90%. However, I only get around $1,000 of bonus a year, so the difference in EV in the worst case is only around $100. I would need to spend time learning to play blackjack or video poker perfectly, and make perfect decisions, compared to pressing a button and letting the RNG do its thing.
Therefore, I think that spending the bonus funds on slots is probably the ideal option. Given what you know so far, do you still think that it is best to pick a random non-jackpot slot, or is there merit in targeting a jackpot?link to original post
Roulette it's just what are the rules (Imprisonment, for example) and how many zeroes are there? Blackjack it's just the number of decks being used and the rules fior the game. Video Poker, if assumed fair, is just whatever the calculator spits out when you input the paytables.
I'd honestly be surprised if the online slots were as low as 90%. I guess some of them might be, but they tend to look closer to the mid-90's, in general, with a few selections even as high as 96-97%, but that's also for casinos that have the returns disclosed on the help screen.
If you're talking about $1,000 in bonus funds to run through per year, and only half of that has to be on slots...I don't think that the added EV would necessarily be worth the time spent figuring out solid points to target the must-hit by games, especially in light of how many other people are going to be playing at the same time you are. If It was some huge amount of free play or you wanted to identify positive points for long-term play, then sure. For $1,000 through, I simply don't think the EV gained would be worth the time investment.
Quote: Mission146Roulette it's just what are the rules (Imprisonment, for example) and how many zeroes are there? Blackjack it's just the number of decks being used and the rules fior the game. Video Poker, if assumed fair, is just whatever the calculator spits out when you input the paytables.
I'd honestly be surprised if the online slots were as low as 90%. I guess some of them might be, but they tend to look closer to the mid-90's, in general, with a few selections even as high as 96-97%, but that's also for casinos that have the returns disclosed on the help screen.
I was just using a worst case scenario, assuming that video poker and blackjack are 99%+, while slots are 90%. Even in this scenario, it is not worth the time and effort to learn how to play these games perfectly and use brain power to execute perfect decisions for an extra $100 in EV, compared to just playing slots, which require no effort. I know that, in reality, slots likely are better than 90%.
As I mentioned before, it only took me a couple of minutes to write a script to monitor jackpot sizes. Everything is automated, so no additional time investment is required from me. The only thing I would need to decide is the threshold of the jackpot size before I start playing. I would set up an automatic alert when the threshold is reached, so there would not be any additional time investment for this either.
Quote: kalcI was just using a worst case scenario, assuming that video poker and blackjack are 99%+, while slots are 90%. Even in this scenario, it is not worth the time and effort to learn how to play these games perfectly and use brain power to execute perfect decisions for an extra $100 in EV, compared to just playing slots, which require no effort. I know that, in reality, slots likely are better than 90%.
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As I mentioned before, it only took me a couple of minutes to write a script to monitor jackpot sizes. Everything is automated, so no additional time investment is required from me. The only thing I would need to decide is the threshold of the jackpot size before I start playing. I would set up an automatic alert when the threshold is reached, so there would not be any additional time investment for this either.
I understand what you mean. With the Video Poker and Blackjack, you could always use the analyzers available on the Odds site to calculate the best decisions if the best decision for a particular decision point is not obvious. Still, if you prefer the ease of slots for running the coin through, then there's nothing wrong with that.
That sounds like a pretty good script! It monitors the site at all times? I'd look through and make sure that doesn't violate any Terms and Conditions if there's a way for them to notice that you are using it...but I'm not going to pretend to understand any tech stuff, because I don't.
Quote: Mission146That sounds like a pretty good script! It monitors the site at all times? I'd look through and make sure that doesn't violate any Terms and Conditions if there's a way for them to notice that you are using it...but I'm not going to pretend to understand any tech stuff, because I don't.
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There's nothing within the Terms and Conditions that specifically say that I can't use automated methods to monitor the size of the jackpots, although the T&C is so broad that they can issue a ban for whatever reason they deem fit. On a practical matter though, what I am doing would be nearly impossible to detect because I am just accessing an API that the software is accessing already. When logged in, the software calls an API every 3 seconds, which returns the current information on each jackpot. I wrote my script to call it every 2 minutes. The API is publicly accessible and is being called by each player's client 20 times a minute, so my extra calls would never be noticed, and could not be traced back to me even if they were.
After my script gets the data, it logs the size and timestamp for each jackpot. Over time, this data will give me the ability to graph the range of the jackpots, the sizes they were when they were hit, as well as how fast they increase at different jackpot amounts. My initial thought was that, once several hundred jackpot hits are logged, I will have a good idea of what a "good" jackpot amount is, and only play after the prize reaches that threshold. But I am noticing that, once a jackpot reaches a certain amount, it starts increasing at 3-4x faster than it does at the minimum jackpot. How does the math work when the game has significantly more volume than usual? Does the extra volume from other players reduce my odds of hitting, or is it the same regardless?
Quote: kalclink to original post
There's nothing within the Terms and Conditions that specifically say that I can't use automated methods to monitor the size of the jackpots, although the T&C is so broad that they can issue a ban for whatever reason they deem fit. On a practical matter though, what I am doing would be nearly impossible to detect because I am just accessing an API that the software is accessing already. When logged in, the software calls an API every 3 seconds, which returns the current information on each jackpot. I wrote my script to call it every 2 minutes. The API is publicly accessible and is being called by each player's client 20 times a minute, so my extra calls would never be noticed, and could not be traced back to me even if they were.
After my script gets the data, it logs the size and timestamp for each jackpot. Over time, this data will give me the ability to graph the range of the jackpots, the sizes they were when they were hit, as well as how fast they increase at different jackpot amounts. My initial thought was that, once several hundred jackpot hits are logged, I will have a good idea of what a "good" jackpot amount is, and only play after the prize reaches that threshold. But I am noticing that, once a jackpot reaches a certain amount, it starts increasing at 3-4x faster than it does at the minimum jackpot. How does the math work when the game has significantly more volume than usual? Does the extra volume from other players reduce my odds of hitting, or is it the same regardless?
Granted, a positive EV play is a positive EV play, but that's the point that I was making about having competition for any given jackpot...especially if you're only doing this on a $1,000 coin-in per year basis. The drop on the base game is likely huge (by online standards), so you'll probably get smacked around if you're not hitting the jackpot, but maybe not, if you hit Free Games or something. In a sample of $1,000 coin-in, anything can happen, really.
The jackpot probably starts increasing at such a rate because other players are likely doing the same thing you are, whether that be having some sort of (very impressive sounding!) program do it, or monitoring it manually. Additionally, the people already playing it probably figure that the jackpot is triggered to hit at a certain point, so by increasing their bets, they are accountable for more meter movement in one spin, which they would perceive as giving them a better chance of hitting it. I'm using words like, "Figure," and, "Perceive," because all of this assumes the game actually works that way and that it's a fair game besides.
So, likely more players and the people who were already playing are betting more. The long and short of it is that you are going to probably have competition on it.
I considered targeting these for a licensed and regulated Pennsylvania online casino that has a must-hit game, so I basically just watched it in action for a while. I determined after some observing that, even if it did work that way AND I was betting significantly more than they were, that my expected hourly profits wouldn't justify the time I'd have to put into monitoring the jackpot, etc...
In short, it's a fun idea, but you probably already have competition diluting whatever value it might have.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat software providers are they using?
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As far as I can tell, it seems to be bespoke software. Their corporate website claims that they are the creator of the games that they offer.
Quote: Mission146
Granted, a positive EV play is a positive EV play, but that's the point that I was making about having competition for any given pecially if you're only doing this on a $1,000 coin-in per year basis. The drop on the base game is likely huge (by online standards), so you'll probably get smacked around if you're not hitting the jackpot, but maybe not, if you hit Free Games or something. In a sample of $1,000 coin-in, anything can happen, really.link to original post
I completely understand the point that you are making, and it is a very valid point. I know that the odds to win a major jackpot playing $1,000 a year is at least 100:1, so I am not expecting to realize my EV. Winning a major jackpot would obviously be nice, but I'm not counting on that money to pay my bills. Therefore, it doesn't matter to me if I end up getting $0 from the bonus funds, as long as I am making +EV plays.
With regards to the odds of hitting a jackpot when there is competition, I would have thought that the odds per coin stay the same regardless of how many other people are playing, since the jackpot is programmed to trigger when it reaches a certain random threshold with no known upper limit. If the threshold was known, then obviously, the odds per coin decrease when there is more volume, but this is not the case with online jackpots.
Assuming that the distribution of jackpot wins is uniform, and the maximum size is unknown, doesn't playing $100 give me the same chance to hit a jackpot whether I am the only player, or if there are a million others? When there is more volume, the chance of the jackpot hitting for someone increases, but it would seem to me that my individual odds stay that same, because my $100 would move the meter the same amount regardless of what others are doing.
That said, I would assume that the game would have the probability of hitting the jackpot increase the more someone is betting, but maybe not.
Yes, the odds of hitting the jackpot is proportional with how much one is betting (or more accurately, how much one contributes to the meter movement), but as long as the jackpot trigger threshold is random and unknown, the odds of each individual spin hitting the jackpot is not significantly affected by the volume of play. When there is a lot of volume, the jackpot is hit in a shorter amount of time, so the game spends a shorter amount of time in +EV territory, which reduces the time available for me to place my bets. However, since a major jackpot gets hit ~10 times a day, a 99th percentile major jackpot will come around once every 10 days. Therefore, in the long run, there will be plenty of opportunities for me to spend my credits when the game is presumably +EV.
It turns out that there are a couple of games that have actual "must-hit-by" jackpots, and the amounts are published on the game screen. One game has a minor jackpot that goes from $50-100, but it almost always hits at exactly $100.00. When the meter approaches $100, the movement does not significantly speed up compared to when it is at $50, which suggests that there may not be many other players targeting this jackpot.
Is there any way to determine if the meter is driven by wins or coin-in? The one clue that I have is that the major and minor jackpots do not increase at the same rate. Sometimes, the major increases by more than the minor, and vice versa.
If the meter is driven by coin-in, then I can play one max bet when the meter is at $99.99. But if it is win based, then is it better to make several smaller bets in succession?
Quote: SOOPOOWelcome to the forum, kalc. I am guessing that WHATEVER you get as a number that you THINK would make it positive EV to bet, you are wrong. You are not including the "you only played this progressive game with free play money" so you violated the spirit of the rules, and thus we are going to use rule 17-B-286 which voids your payment. However, you will still be able to use the $1 you bet!
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Thank you for the welcome!
I'm not under any illusions that I have found a guaranteed +EV spot. You are absolutely correct that there is the possibility that the casino doesn't actually pay out the jackpot, or the game is rigged against me because I am playing with free money. That said, although I have not won any jackpots yet, I have converted my free play money so far at slightly better than 1:1, so it's not like the slots don't pay at all.
I would never play slots or casino table games with my own money, and therefore, I have no previous experience with casino games. If you have any other suggestions to maximize the value of my free credits, I'm all ears!
As a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.Quote: kalcI have been gathering data for a few days, and I have identified some spots that are potentially +EV.
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It turns out that there are a couple of games that have actual "must-hit-by" jackpots, and the amounts are published on the game screen. One game has a minor jackpot that goes from $50-100, but it almost always hits at exactly $100.00. When the meter approaches $100, the movement does not significantly speed up compared to when it is at $50, which suggests that there may not be many other players targeting this jackpot.
Is there any way to determine if the meter is driven by wins or coin-in? The one clue that I have is that the major and minor jackpots do not increase at the same rate. Sometimes, the major increases by more than the minor, and vice versa.
If the meter is driven by coin-in, then I can play one max bet when the meter is at $99.99. But if it is win based, then is it better to make several smaller bets in succession?
How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.
Quote: AxelWolfAs a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.
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How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.
Thanks for the tip on the proper terminology. I have heard "must-hit-by" jackpots referred to as "mystery" jackpots as well, so I wasn't sure what exactly to call them.
Yes, multiple times a day. On average, the jackpot is hit about 10 times a day, and reaches the maximum around 2/3 of the time.
Have you ever thought about emailing them and asking what percentage of your coin in is contributed to the progressive? It can't hurt to ask. Perhaps even from an anonymous email as someone potentially interested in using their platform.Quote: kalcQuote: AxelWolfAs a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.
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How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.
Thanks for the tip on the proper terminology. I have heard "must-hit-by" jackpots referred to as "mystery" jackpots as well, so I wasn't sure what exactly to call them.
Yes, multiple times a day. On average, the jackpot is hit about 10 times a day, and reaches the maximum around 2/3 of the time.link to original post
Quote: kalcQuote: AxelWolfAs a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.
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How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.
Thanks for the tip on the proper terminology. I have heard "must-hit-by" jackpots referred to as "mystery" jackpots as well, so I wasn't sure what exactly to call them.
Yes, multiple times a day. On average, the jackpot is hit about 10 times a day, and reaches the maximum around 2/3 of the time.link to original post
I’m the online casino skeptic here. How do you know they are ACTUALLY hit multiple times a day versus the casino just lowering the jackpot back to starting value because it CONVINCES you that it is hit multiple times a day?
If I had a not insignificant amount of free play but not enough that I should worry a lot about (1k per year as you said), I’d play any nearly 50-50 game, take my around $980 and buy my wife 1/2 a purse or so…
Unfortunately, I don't think this casino is open to the US., so I didn't really take the time to investigate their reputation.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: kalcQuote: AxelWolfAs a side note: If they are not must-hit-by" jackpots then the proper term is mystery jackpots.
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How often do the $100 must hit bys get up to 99.99? Multiple times a day? I have been waiting for must hits to become common online, anytime I visit an online casino I look. They are just not as common as I had hoped.
Thanks for the tip on the proper terminology. I have heard "must-hit-by" jackpots referred to as "mystery" jackpots as well, so I wasn't sure what exactly to call them.
Yes, multiple times a day. On average, the jackpot is hit about 10 times a day, and reaches the maximum around 2/3 of the time.link to original post
I’m the online casino skeptic here. How do you know they are ACTUALLY hit multiple times a day versus the casino just lowering the jackpot back to starting value because it CONVINCES you that it is hit multiple times a day?
If I had a not insignificant amount of free play but not enough that I should worry a lot about (1k per year as you said), I’d play any nearly 50-50 game, take my around $980 and buy my wife 1/2 a purse or so…link to original post
I see some potential here above and beyond the free play he is using.
Quote: SOOPOOlink to original post
I’m the online casino skeptic here. How do you know they are ACTUALLY hit multiple times a day versus the casino just lowering the jackpot back to starting value because it CONVINCES you that it is hit multiple times a day?
If I had a not insignificant amount of free play but not enough that I should worry a lot about (1k per year as you said), I’d play any nearly 50-50 game, take my around $980 and buy my wife 1/2 a purse or so…
I never said that I knew anything for sure. That's why I am only thinking in terms of EV, and why I would never sink my own money into any casino game, let alone an online casino. That said, based on my personal experiences on this platform, and those of others on forums, the likelihood that the casino actually pays out is at least 95%. I have never deposited money into their platform, but have cashed out in the five figures (playing poker only). There are many others who have cashed out for five or six figures. Could they be shills? Sure, but the likelihood of that many long time forum members all being shills is incredibly low.
Quote: AxelWolf[Have you ever thought about emailing them and asking what percentage of your coin in is contributed to the progressive? It can't hurt to ask. Perhaps even from an anonymous email as someone potentially interested in using their platform.
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That's a good idea. Their CS is usually pretty cagey, and I have not had much luck getting information from them in the past, but like you said, it can't hurt to ask.
Quote: AxelWolfUnfortunately, I don't think this casino is open to the US., so I didn't really take the time to investigate their reputation.
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I see some potential here above and beyond the free play he is using.
This casino is available in the US.
I'm not sure why I thought it wasn't, perhaps i got it confused with a different casino/poster.Quote: kalcQuote: SOOPOOlink to original post
I’m the online casino skeptic here. How do you know they are ACTUALLY hit multiple times a day versus the casino just lowering the jackpot back to starting value because it CONVINCES you that it is hit multiple times a day?
If I had a not insignificant amount of free play but not enough that I should worry a lot about (1k per year as you said), I’d play any nearly 50-50 game, take my around $980 and buy my wife 1/2 a purse or so…
I never said that I knew anything for sure. That's why I am only thinking in terms of EV, and why I would never sink my own money into any casino game, let alone an online casino. That said, based on my personal experiences on this platform, and those of others on forums, the likelihood that the casino actually pays out is at least 95%. I have never deposited money into their platform, but have cashed out in the five figures (playing poker only). There are many others who have cashed out for five or six figures. Could they be shills? Sure, but the likelihood of that many long time forum members all being shills is incredibly low.Quote: AxelWolf[Have you ever thought about emailing them and asking what percentage of your coin in is contributed to the progressive? It can't hurt to ask. Perhaps even from an anonymous email as someone potentially interested in using their platform.
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That's a good idea. Their CS is usually pretty cagey, and I have not had much luck getting information from them in the past, but like you said, it can't hurt to ask.Quote: AxelWolfUnfortunately, I don't think this casino is open to the US., so I didn't really take the time to investigate their reputation.
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I see some potential here above and beyond the free play he is using.
This casino is available in the US.link to original post
