kalc
kalc
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September 7th, 2021 at 12:06:28 PM permalink
I am looking to make the most out of the free slot credits that I receive from an online poker site. I have read up on target points for "must hit by" jackpots for land-based machines, so I understand the basic concept that when a progressive jackpot reaches a certain point, the game becomes +EV until the jackpot is hit.

At this particular online casino, many of the games have a grand jackpot in the $100k-$1m range that are hit once every few months, and a major jackpot in the $1,000-$15,000 range that are hit ~10 times a day. I have decided to target the majors since they are more attainable and seem to pay out more money cumulatively than the grands.

The downside of an online casino is that the RTP, meter movement, and "must hit by" amount are usually not published anywhere. However, the upside is that I can scrape the jackpot amounts over time to determine their range and seed amounts. Once I gather enough data, I can set an alert for when the jackpot is in a good range, and play my free credits until the jackpot is hit.

Here are my questions:

  1. All else being equal, is the EV of a game with a $15,000 jackpot that is seeded at $5,000 equivalent to another game with an $11,000 jackpot that is seeded at $1,000? I would presume that the base RTP for the game with the higher seeded jackpot is lower.
  2. Once I gather the data on several hundred major jackpot hits on each game, I can set an alert whenever the jackpot reaches a certain percentile. What would be a good percentile to start playing at? 90th? 95th? 99th? I would be playing exclusively with house money and I don't have any time constraints on these free credits, so maximizing EV is my main objective.


Thank you in advance for your input.
Mission146
Mission146
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kalcDieter
September 7th, 2021 at 12:17:00 PM permalink
Before doing anything, I'd encourage you to strongly consider that these games are probably going to have a pretty sizable, "Drop," if you fail to hit the jackpot and also that potentially many others will be playing for the same jackpots at the same time. It seems like the amount of work involved wouldn't even necessarily be worth the EV gain if you're just doing it once in a while with free slot dollars and it might be more efficient just to take a high RTP game and, "Grind."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
kalc
kalc
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September 7th, 2021 at 12:26:10 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Before doing anything, I'd encourage you to strongly consider that these games are probably going to have a pretty sizable, "Drop," if you fail to hit the jackpot and also that potentially many others will be playing for the same jackpots at the same time. It seems like the amount of work involved wouldn't even necessarily be worth the EV gain if you're just doing it once in a while with free slot dollars and it might be more efficient just to take a high RTP game and, "Grind."

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    It only took a couple of minutes to write a script to record and calculate the percentile of the jackpots, whereas it would take several hours each year to play through the free credits that I receive. Therefore, it is not a complete waste of time to do a bit of work to maximize my EV. I also understand that I am unlikely to hit one of these jackpots regardless of how much optimizing I do, and I am fine with that.

    The other issue is that I have no idea what the RTP is for each game at this casino are, so I can't just pick a high RTP game and just grind through my credits. In general, I get that non-jackpot games should have higher RTP, but is there any way to verify this?
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    September 7th, 2021 at 12:28:25 PM permalink
    Quote: kalc



    It only took a couple of minutes to write a script to record and calculate the percentile of the jackpots, whereas it would take several hours each year to play through the free credits that I receive. Therefore, it is not a complete waste of time to do a bit of work to maximize my EV. I also understand that I am unlikely to hit one of these jackpots regardless of how much optimizing I do, and I am fine with that.

    The other issue is that I have no idea what the RTP is for each game at this casino are, so I can't just pick a high RTP game and just grind through my credits. In general, I get that non-jackpot games should have higher RTP, but is there any way to verify this?

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    You can check out Wizard's reviews for whatever software it's on for an idea. Some casinos will state the RTP on the Rules screen, but that depends on the jurisdiction (as to whether it must be done) and if it's not necessary, then depends on whether or not the casino wants to do it. Can you play the free coin on Video Poker or any Table Games?
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    kalc
    kalc
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    September 7th, 2021 at 12:35:54 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    Can you play the free coin on Video Poker or any Table Games?

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    RTP is not stated on the Rules screen/pay table. For half of my credits, I have to use them on slots. For the other half, I can choose between slots, black, roulette or video poker. The RTP of the table games are not stated either, so there's no way to verify if the games are fairly randomized.
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    September 7th, 2021 at 12:42:00 PM permalink
    Quote: kalc

    Quote: Mission146

    Can you play the free coin on Video Poker or any Table Games?

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    RTP is not stated on the Rules screen/pay table. For half of my credits, I have to use them on slots. For the other half, I can choose between slots, black, roulette or video poker. The RTP of the table games are not stated either, so there's no way to verify if the games are fairly randomized.
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    I guess it would depend on where the casino is licensed and whether or not it has been certified fair by one third-party, or another. For the table games, I'd also check the Terms and Conditions to make sure that they don't prohibit certain types of wagering with bonus funds, such as with Roulette, and that the playthrough requirements don't change.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    kalc
    kalc
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    September 7th, 2021 at 1:32:12 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    I guess it would depend on where the casino is licensed and whether or not it has been certified fair by one third-party, or another. For the table games, I'd also check the Terms and Conditions to make sure that they don't prohibit certain types of wagering with bonus funds, such as with Roulette, and that the playthrough requirements don't change.

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    The casino is licensed by a small European nation, and the RNG has a certification from one third-party that specializes in validating online gaming platforms. I make plenty of money from their poker platform, so I would presume that it is fair overall. I just have no idea what the RTP of their slots and table games are.

    The playthrough for the bonus funds is 1x, no matter if it is through slots, video poker, blackjack or roulette. If blackjack and video poker are fair, then presumably they have higher EV at 99%+ RTP than slots at ~90%. However, I only get around $1,000 of bonus a year, so the difference in EV in the worst case is only around $100. I would need to spend time learning to play blackjack or video poker perfectly, and make perfect decisions, compared to pressing a button and letting the RNG do its thing.

    Therefore, I think that spending the bonus funds on slots is probably the ideal option. Given what you know so far, do you still think that it is best to pick a random non-jackpot slot, or is there merit in targeting a jackpot?
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    September 7th, 2021 at 1:40:08 PM permalink
    Quote: kalc

    Quote: Mission146

    I guess it would depend on where the casino is licensed and whether or not it has been certified fair by one third-party, or another. For the table games, I'd also check the Terms and Conditions to make sure that they don't prohibit certain types of wagering with bonus funds, such as with Roulette, and that the playthrough requirements don't change.

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    The casino is licensed by a small European nation, and the RNG has a certification from one third-party that specializes in validating online gaming platforms. I make plenty of money from their poker platform, so I would presume that it is fair overall. I just have no idea what the RTP of their slots and table games are.

    The playthrough for the bonus funds is 1x, no matter if it is through slots, video poker, blackjack or roulette. If blackjack and video poker are fair, then presumably they have higher EV at 99%+ RTP than slots at ~90%. However, I only get around $1,000 of bonus a year, so the difference in EV in the worst case is only around $100. I would need to spend time learning to play blackjack or video poker perfectly, and make perfect decisions, compared to pressing a button and letting the RNG do its thing.

    Therefore, I think that spending the bonus funds on slots is probably the ideal option. Given what you know so far, do you still think that it is best to pick a random non-jackpot slot, or is there merit in targeting a jackpot?
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    Roulette it's just what are the rules (Imprisonment, for example) and how many zeroes are there? Blackjack it's just the number of decks being used and the rules fior the game. Video Poker, if assumed fair, is just whatever the calculator spits out when you input the paytables.

    I'd honestly be surprised if the online slots were as low as 90%. I guess some of them might be, but they tend to look closer to the mid-90's, in general, with a few selections even as high as 96-97%, but that's also for casinos that have the returns disclosed on the help screen.

    If you're talking about $1,000 in bonus funds to run through per year, and only half of that has to be on slots...I don't think that the added EV would necessarily be worth the time spent figuring out solid points to target the must-hit by games, especially in light of how many other people are going to be playing at the same time you are. If It was some huge amount of free play or you wanted to identify positive points for long-term play, then sure. For $1,000 through, I simply don't think the EV gained would be worth the time investment.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    kalc
    kalc
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    Mission146
    September 7th, 2021 at 1:59:55 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    Roulette it's just what are the rules (Imprisonment, for example) and how many zeroes are there? Blackjack it's just the number of decks being used and the rules fior the game. Video Poker, if assumed fair, is just whatever the calculator spits out when you input the paytables.

    I'd honestly be surprised if the online slots were as low as 90%. I guess some of them might be, but they tend to look closer to the mid-90's, in general, with a few selections even as high as 96-97%, but that's also for casinos that have the returns disclosed on the help screen.



    I was just using a worst case scenario, assuming that video poker and blackjack are 99%+, while slots are 90%. Even in this scenario, it is not worth the time and effort to learn how to play these games perfectly and use brain power to execute perfect decisions for an extra $100 in EV, compared to just playing slots, which require no effort. I know that, in reality, slots likely are better than 90%.

    As I mentioned before, it only took me a couple of minutes to write a script to monitor jackpot sizes. Everything is automated, so no additional time investment is required from me. The only thing I would need to decide is the threshold of the jackpot size before I start playing. I would set up an automatic alert when the threshold is reached, so there would not be any additional time investment for this either.
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    September 7th, 2021 at 2:09:40 PM permalink
    Quote: kalc

    I was just using a worst case scenario, assuming that video poker and blackjack are 99%+, while slots are 90%. Even in this scenario, it is not worth the time and effort to learn how to play these games perfectly and use brain power to execute perfect decisions for an extra $100 in EV, compared to just playing slots, which require no effort. I know that, in reality, slots likely are better than 90%.

    As I mentioned before, it only took me a couple of minutes to write a script to monitor jackpot sizes. Everything is automated, so no additional time investment is required from me. The only thing I would need to decide is the threshold of the jackpot size before I start playing. I would set up an automatic alert when the threshold is reached, so there would not be any additional time investment for this either.

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    I understand what you mean. With the Video Poker and Blackjack, you could always use the analyzers available on the Odds site to calculate the best decisions if the best decision for a particular decision point is not obvious. Still, if you prefer the ease of slots for running the coin through, then there's nothing wrong with that.

    That sounds like a pretty good script! It monitors the site at all times? I'd look through and make sure that doesn't violate any Terms and Conditions if there's a way for them to notice that you are using it...but I'm not going to pretend to understand any tech stuff, because I don't.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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