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Hold & Spin features are triggered when 6 or more Hold & Spin symbols appear in the Pay Window. The Pay Window has 5 vertical reels and 3 rows (15 symbol placements in total).

Each of the 5 reels has a one instance of 2 Hold & Spin symbols positioned consecutively (a cluster of 2) and one instance of 3 Hold & Spin symbols positioned consecutively (a cluster of 3), for a total of 5 Hold & Spin symbols per reel. The clusters are at least 5 symbols apart on all reels – so only one cluster (or part thereof) can appear in the window for any single reel.

Reels 1-4 inclusive have 64 symbols in total and Reel 5 has 85 symbols in total.

What are the odds of getting a Hold & Spin feature?

For an example of a H&S feature, put this into google …

lL9Tdns1XbA

… click on the youtube video and then fast forward the video to 2 mins 30 secs (the commentary is worth a listen!)

Thanks in advance

To estimate the odds of getting the hold and spin feature, you can tape your play and record the number of times that you get 0, 1, 2 or 3 orbs on each reel and then using all of the various combinations of ways to hit 6 or more orbs, calculate the probabilities. Note it is not necessary to know the distribution of the amounts on the orbs, just the number of orbs.

For the machine that I've been playing (10 cent denomination, $5 spins) I calculated the following based on 1,300 spins so far:

6 0.0048899388490

7 0.0017111980199

8 0.0005277596371

9 0.0001335915236

10 0.0000327884548

11 0.0000067826221

12 0.0000011150961

13 0.0000001701810

14 0.0000000191783

15 0.0000000009395 <--- awards Grand immediately.. No H&S feature

0.00730336450141 Hold and Spin feature approximately once every 136.92 paid spins

My method does not need the entire number of symbols on each reel but my answer is subject to variance as it is based on observed spins. I’m curious how you know the reel mappings.

I will work through the math based on your assertions over the weekend.

Quote:rsactuaryYes, I've done a lot of work on this related to Lightning Link and Dragon Link games. I've focused on Sahara Gold, so my calculations are related to that, based on a machine at Winstar in Oklahoma.

To estimate the odds of getting the hold and spin feature, you can tape your play and record the number of times that you get 0, 1, 2 or 3 orbs on each reel and then using all of the various combinations of ways to hit 6 or more orbs, calculate the probabilities. Note it is not necessary to know the distribution of the amounts on the orbs, just the number of orbs.

For the machine that I've been playing (10 cent denomination, $5 spins) I calculated the following based on 1,300 spins so far:

6 0.0048899388490

7 0.0017111980199

8 0.0005277596371

9 0.0001335915236

10 0.0000327884548

11 0.0000067826221

12 0.0000011150961

13 0.0000001701810

14 0.0000000191783

15 0.0000000009395 <--- awards Grand immediately.. No H&S feature

0.00730336450141 Hold and Spin feature approximately once every 136.92 paid spins

So let me get this straight. You think the probability of getting the grand without going through the hold and spin feature is about 1 in 1.1 billion? Yeah, I could believe that.

How confident are you in the overall probability of the grand if you've calculated it yet? Or not enough Bonus rounds yet?

Quote:tringlomaneSo let me get this straight. You think the probability of getting the grand without going through the hold and spin feature is about 1 in 1.1 billion? Yeah, I could believe that.

How confident are you in the overall probability of the grand if you've calculated it yet? Or not enough Bonus rounds yet?

After 1300 spins, my results are now starting to look a little more normalized. I think I need to get to 2000 to feel better about it, but the 136.92 hasn't moved significantly since about 800 spins. So I think I'm approaching something that has some confidence.

As for the overall probability of the grand, I actually think that is pretty simple to estimate based on some assumptions. For instance, if you're doing a $5 spin and the Grand resets at $10,000 and if 2% of each dollar goes towards the grand (excluding progressive meter rise), then the probability of winning is calculated by solving the following for x:

5 * 0.02 = 10000 * x ====> x = 1/100,000 ( if someone thinks this rather crude formula approach is absolutely wrong, let's discuss please.... I've based a lot of analysis on it)

I've been focused more on how many reel stops are there on the hard to get reel.. the one that spins and rarely shows an orb. I literally calculated a probability for every possible pathway to get to 15 orbs on Sahara Gold to figure this out. A massive amount of work.

I should also point out that if you read the instructions in each of the LL/DL games states that you can win a random Grand (or major) on any spin with 0-5 orbs. Obviously I have no way to know what that probability is, and I've essentially assumed it to be 0 in my calcs since I've not seen a pic or heard anyone on Youtube slots channels getting it.

6 0.0057218018700

7 0.0018471493441

8 0.0005366661969

9 0.0001268653309

10 0.0000289019416

11 0.0000056771671

12 0.0000008807463

13 0.0000001262216

14 0.0000000140246

15 0.0000000007012 <--- awards Grand immediately.. No H&S feature

0.00826808354434 Hold and Spin feature approximately once every 120.95 paid spins

Or the instant grand about once every 1.426 billion spins. The poster doesn't say anything about RTP of the machine and it absolutely could vary from the machine I play.

Edited to fix a mistake. My observed spins do not follow the pattern as suggested by the OP, so I have some doubt about his assumptions about frequency of orbs.

Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5

Orbs

0 998 992 989 1034 1035

1 67 81 81 65 58

2 80 91 91 72 63

3 25 18 19 34 12

BS 130 118 120 95 132 <--- observed bonus symbol occurrences

TS 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300

Percentages

Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5

Orbs

0 76.769231% 76.307692% 76.076923% 79.538462% 79.615385%

1 5.153846% 6.230769% 6.230769% 5.000000% 4.461538%

2 6.153846% 7.000000% 7.000000% 5.538462% 4.846154%

3 1.923077% 1.384615% 1.461538% 2.615385% 0.923077%

Bonus Symbol 10.000000% 9.076923% 9.230769% 7.307692% 10.153846%

ETA: sorry this didn't format well.

Quote:rdw4potusDo you only care about 6 symbol triggers on lightning/dragon link? Or do you also have interest in lock it link (3 symbols) , fire link (4 symbols) , and mighty cash (5 symbols @ high denom)?

Ultimately, yes. But I don't yet have the reels for those other machines. So this exercise is about finding a repeatable formula for calculating the odds of triggering the lightning/dragon games. If anyone has developed that and is able to share, I'd be most gratefull. TIA.

Quote:rsactuaryBased on initial posters assertion that there are 64 reels stops on the first four reels and 85 reel stops on the fifth reel, I get the following probabilities:

6 0.0057218018700

7 0.0018471493441

8 0.0005366661969

9 0.0001268653309

10 0.0000289019416

11 0.0000056771671

12 0.0000008807463

13 0.0000001262216

14 0.0000000140246

15 0.0000000007012 <--- awards Grand immediately.. No H&S feature

0.00826808354434 Hold and Spin feature approximately once every 120.95 paid spins

Or the instant grand about once every 1.426 billion spins. The poster doesn't say anything about RTP of the machine and it absolutely could vary from the machine I play.

Edited to fix a mistake. My observed spins do not follow the pattern as suggested by the OP, so I have some doubt about his assumptions about frequency of orbs.

Genius!

One in 120 feels about right and lines up with experience. Is that a difficult calculation?

I don't know the RTP - there are multiples that the operator can choose from.

The reels mentioned are from Autumn Moon (Aristocrat) but (and I will confirm) I think that the H&S symbol distribution is the same across the current clutch of Lightning/Dragon Cash games.

So given that, I'm struggling to come up with a reel mapping that consistently gives me 2 orbs more than 1 orb on each reel of my observed 1300 spins.

Because if the orbs were stacked just three high you would get 1 orb twice and 2 orbs twice and 3 orbs one per each block of orbs. If there was a two orb section you would get 1 orb twice or 2 orbs twice per each block of orbs. I can't figure out how they could be stacked to give two orbs more than one orb.

Thoughts anyone?

Quote:rsactuarySo now I'm a bit perplexed. While I'm not sure that the OPs indication of the orbs on each reel is correct, what I do know as correct is that there are no one orb sections on the reel, because I've never had one orb in the middle position on the reel. So they are at least stacked two high and three high.

So given that, I'm struggling to come up with a reel mapping that consistently gives me 2 orbs more than 1 orb on each reel of my observed 1300 spins.

Because if the orbs were stacked just three high you would get 1 orb twice and 2 orbs twice and 3 orbs one per each block of orbs. If there was a two orb section you would get 1 orb twice or 2 orbs twice per each block of orbs. I can't figure out how they could be stacked to give two orbs more than one orb.

Thoughts anyone?

My thought is that the orbs aren't random. That they're an overlay of an entire second set of reels, a separate layer, rather than lying within the first set of symbols. That the orb is dominant and the underlying symbol is removed as they appear. And that they have a finite set of results that don't necessarily reflect a random expectation of any particular reel.

I think they probably are mapped to appear as zero-6+ over all 5 reels, as a total of 15 symbols, not as 5 sets of random 0-3 per reel. And when that RNG spins (a second one to the main reel RNG), it's selecting from a different matrix of possible results, x amount of which will result in transition to the bonus game. The values and placements then transition to that bonus screen.

I could very easily be wrong. But that method of generating bonus would negate the value of counting down individual reels, or assign any probability to them showing 1, 2, or 3 symbols. Either they will show enough symbols to initiate the bonus, or they won't.

I also think the total value of the bonus spin is already written into each bonus that you generate, and the rest is animation. Look at how often you get large value symbols that don't generate a bonus. And look how often, when you do get enough for a bonus the 6+ values are 1x or 2x your bet.

Now, it's possible, once you're on the bonus screen, that each time you generate a spin, that's random, and your fate is not sealed from the spin that resulted in the bonus. That each individual window in the bonus has its own random chance of filling, re-generated on the micro-second you push the button each time.

But I favor that it's all animation and illusion to entertain you, and you're part of a scripted result.

Quote:beachbumbabsMy thought is that the orbs aren't random. That they're an overlay of an entire second set of reels, a separate layer, rather than lying within the first set of symbols. That the orb is dominant and the underlying symbol is removed as they appear. And that they have a finite set of results that don't necessarily reflect a random expectation of any particular reel.

I think they probably are mapped to appear as zero-6+ over all 5 reels, as a total of 15 symbols, not as 5 sets of random 0-3 per reel. And when that RNG spins (a second one to the main reel RNG), it's selecting from a different matrix of possible results, x amount of which will result in transition to the bonus game. The values and placements then transition to that bonus screen.

I could very easily be wrong. But that method of generating bonus would negate the value of counting down individual reels, or assign any probability to them showing 1, 2, or 3 symbols. Either they will show enough symbols to initiate the bonus, or they won't.

I also think the total value of the bonus spin is already written into each bonus that you generate, and the rest is animation. Look at how often you get large value symbols that don't generate a bonus. And look how often, when you do get enough for a bonus the 6+ values are 1x or 2x your bet.

Now, it's possible, once you're on the bonus screen, that each time you generate a spin, that's random, and your fate is not sealed from the spin that resulted in the bonus. That each individual window in the bonus has its own random chance of filling, re-generated on the micro-second you push the button each time.

But I favor that it's all animation and illusion to entertain you, and you're part of a scripted result.

Never even imagined that that could be a possibility.. but it totally makes sense. Thanks for this insight. All my math might be for naught, lol.

Quote:rsactuaryNever even imagined that that could be a possibility.. but it totally makes sense. Thanks for this insight. All my math might be for naught, lol.

Sorry about putting coal in your stocking!

Nothing says I'm right about this, or that your work is in vain.

Maybe someone here knows how these slots are engineered, though? A definitive answer would be nice.

The reel data is in the public domain. There are endless youtube videos that show the reels over many spins. You just need to slow them down. And then you need either a lot of patience or a clever robot. I have both.

My challenge is to determine whether the games are based on the actual reels or on virtual reels (mapped to the actual reels). I suspect its the latter. This might also explain why your odds from observed games differ from the odds prescribed by the reel composition.

Quote:p13manYou are correct. There are no clusters of 1 (i.e. single orbs). The cluster of two can appear as a 2 twice, and a 1 twice. The cluster of 3 can appear as a 3 once, a 2 twice and a 1 twice. This is why I think working out the odds of triggering the H&S feature is horribly complex and I'm intellectually curious about how it is calculated. Given that triggering the H&S feature is often the player's primary objective, I would like to know for sure what the odds are. As would thousands of others I'm sure.

The reel data is in the public domain. There are endless youtube videos that show the reels over many spins. You just need to slow them down. And then you need either a lot of patience or a clever robot. I have both.

My challenge is to determine whether the games are based on the actual reels or on virtual reels (mapped to the actual reels). I suspect its the latter. This might also explain why your odds from observed games differ from the odds prescribed by the reel composition.

I have never heard of video slots where actual reels and virtual reels were different. Not saying it can't happen, and maybe this is an example of that... but typically they aren't because they don't need to be different. You have to be careful looking at slowed down videos of real play because at some point they cut to the part of the reel that it's going to stop at.. and you can never know for sure where that's going to happen.

So my observed statistics (for Sahara Gold - $5 bet on 10c denomination) were as such (sorry for the bad formatting):

Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5

Orbs

0 998 992 989 1034 1035

1 67 81 81 65 58

2 80 91 91 72 63

3 25 18 19 34 12

Bonus Symbol 130 118 120 95 132

Total Spins 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300

Percentages

Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5

Orbs

0 76.769231% 76.307692% 76.076923% 79.538462% 79.615385%

1 5.153846% 6.230769% 6.230769% 5.000000% 4.461538%

2 6.153846% 7.000000% 7.000000% 5.538462% 4.846154%

3 1.923077% 1.384615% 1.461538% 2.615385% 0.923077%

Bonus Symbol 10.000000% 9.076923% 9.230769% 7.307692% 10.153846%

to calculate the probability of getting the H&S feature, you simply look at every combination of orbs on the reels to total 6 or more, and then calculate teh probabilities for each, then sum them up.

for example:

The ways to get 6 orbs and the associated probabilities are as follows:

1 1 1 1 2 0.0000004848216

1 1 1 2 1 0.0000004944115

1 1 2 1 1 0.0000005014479

1 2 1 1 1 0.0000005014479

2 1 1 1 1 0.0000005329477

1 1 2 2 0 0.0000099119088

1 1 2 0 2 0.0000086645406

1 1 0 2 2 0.0000065571089

1 2 1 2 0 0.0000099119088

1 2 1 0 2 0.0000086645406

1 2 2 0 1 0.0000089616785

1 2 2 1 0 0.0000100529734

1 2 0 2 1 0.0000067819755

1 2 0 1 2 0.0000066504285

1 0 2 2 1 0.0000068025477

1 0 2 1 2 0.0000066706017

1 0 1 2 2 0.0000065769990

0 1 1 2 2 0.0000079993899

0 1 2 1 2 0.0000081132358

0 1 2 2 1 0.0000082737174

0 2 1 1 2 0.0000081132358

0 2 1 2 1 0.0000082737174

0 2 2 1 1 0.0000083914675

2 2 1 1 0 0.0000106844788

2 2 1 0 1 0.0000095246312

2 2 0 1 1 0.0000073105872

2 1 2 1 0 0.0000106844788

2 1 2 0 1 0.0000095246312

2 1 1 2 0 0.0000105345529

2 1 1 0 2 0.0000092088278

2 1 0 2 1 0.0000072080041

2 1 0 1 2 0.0000070681937

2 0 2 1 1 0.0000073327629

2 0 1 2 1 0.0000072298686

2 0 1 1 2 0.0000070896341

2 2 2 0 0 0.0001909487847

2 2 0 2 0 0.0001445052932

2 2 0 0 2 0.0001263199653

2 0 2 2 0 0.0001449436308

2 0 2 0 2 0.0001267031401

2 0 0 2 2 0.0000958857865

0 2 2 2 0 0.0001658705981

0 2 2 0 2 0.0001449965446

0 2 0 2 2 0.0001097297803

0 0 2 2 2 0.0001100626310

3 2 1 0 0 0.0000531141881

3 2 0 1 0 0.0000407675523

3 2 0 0 1 0.0000363420535

3 1 0 0 2 0.0000351370783

3 1 0 2 0 0.0000401954971

3 1 2 0 0 0.0000531141881

3 0 2 1 0 0.0000408912153

3 0 2 0 1 0.0000364522923

3 0 1 2 0 0.0000403174248

3 0 1 0 2 0.0000352436619

3 0 0 2 1 0.0000275861886

3 0 0 1 2 0.0000270511117

2 3 1 0 0 0.0000336195300

2 3 0 1 0 0.0000258045166

2 3 0 0 1 0.0000230033218

2 1 0 0 3 0.0000214168858

2 1 0 3 0 0.0000607398623

2 1 3 0 0 0.0000354872817

2 0 3 1 0 0.0000273207241

2 0 3 0 1 0.0000243549381

2 0 1 3 0 0.0000609241086

2 0 1 0 3 0.0000214818511

2 0 0 3 1 0.0000416857961

2 0 0 1 3 0.0000164882966

1 3 2 0 0 0.0000316324498

1 3 0 2 0 0.0000239386516

1 3 0 0 2 0.0000209260822

1 2 3 0 0 0.0000333898081

1 2 0 3 0 0.0000571498365

1 2 0 0 3 0.0000201510421

1 0 3 2 0 0.0000253452256

1 0 3 0 2 0.0000221556452

1 0 2 3 0 0.0000573231929

1 0 2 0 3 0.0000202121676

1 0 0 3 2 0.0000379214968

1 0 0 2 3 0.0000152960659

0 3 2 1 0 0.0000296197497

0 3 2 0 1 0.0000264043943

0 3 1 2 0 0.0000292041217

0 3 1 0 2 0.0000255289170

0 3 0 2 1 0.0000199821892

0 3 0 1 2 0.0000195946036

0 2 3 1 0 0.0000312652913

0 2 3 0 1 0.0000278713051

0 2 1 3 0 0.0000697203338

0 2 1 0 3 0.0000245834016

0 2 0 3 1 0.0000477043930

0 2 0 1 3 0.0000188688776

0 1 3 2 0 0.0000308265729

0 1 3 0 2 0.0000269471902

0 1 2 3 0 0.0000697203338

0 1 2 0 3 0.0000245834016

0 1 0 3 2 0.0000461226824

0 1 0 2 3 0.0000186041072

0 0 3 2 1 0.0000211562915

0 0 3 1 2 0.0000207459324

0 0 2 3 1 0.0000478490979

0 0 2 1 3 0.0000189261138

0 0 1 3 2 0.0000462625894

0 0 1 2 3 0.0000186605403

3 1 1 1 0 0.0000029719876

3 1 1 0 1 0.0000026493651

3 1 0 1 1 0.0000020335081

3 0 1 1 1 0.0000020396765

0 3 1 1 1 0.0000014774495

0 1 3 1 1 0.0000015595301

0 1 1 3 1 0.0000034776889

0 1 1 1 3 0.0000013755565

1 3 1 1 0 0.0000017699837

1 3 1 0 1 0.0000015778441

1 3 0 1 1 0.0000012110670

1 0 3 1 1 0.0000012822263

1 0 1 3 1 0.0000028593126

1 0 1 1 3 0.0000011309654

1 1 3 1 0 0.0000018683161

1 1 3 0 1 0.0000016655021

1 1 0 3 1 0.0000028506655

1 1 0 1 3 0.0000011275452

1 1 1 3 0 0.0000041662694

1 1 1 0 3 0.0000014690273

3 3 0 0 0 0.0001282782222

3 0 3 0 0 0.0001358155225

3 0 0 3 0 0.0002324612013

3 0 0 0 3 0.0000819658592

0 3 3 0 0 0.0000983786309

0 3 0 3 0 0.0001683843959

0 3 0 0 3 0.0000593723667

0 0 3 3 0 0.0001782782325

0 0 3 0 3 0.0000628609352

0 0 0 3 3 0.0001075924772

total sum 0.0048899388490

I reproduced your numbers in a spreadsheet. I then plugged in the numbers based on the frequency of H&S symbols (5 per reel in a cluster of 2 and one of 3). This distribution means that 1 shows up on 4 stops, 2 show up at 4 stops and 3 shows up at one. Not sure if this is correct, but I calculated the probability of 0-3 coins showing up on each reel. And then plugged those into your matrix of outcomes.

0 Coins 1 Coin 2 Coins 3 Coins Symbols Per Reel

ONE 0.859375 0.0625 0.0625 0.015625 64

TWO 0.859375 0.0625 0.0625 0.015625 64

THREE 0.859375 0.0625 0.0625 0.015625 64

FOUR 0.859375 0.0625 0.0625 0.015625 64

FIVE 0.894117647 0.047058824 0.047058824 0.011764706 85

I get 0.00572 or one in 175. The odds are going to improve when we add the 7-14 symbol outcomes, but I need a cute way of generating the outcome matrix for these because the thought of doing it manually is making my head hurt.

Thanks for sharing. This has been great!

I wrote a bit of python to get the combinations and permutations for 7 symbols and above. That gave me 666 additional combinations! Not something you want to do manually.

Thanks again for helping me fumble my way through this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDph73MGvaU

Playing at the $2 denomination with a multiplier of 1 ($50 bet), the Mini Bonus was $2,000 & the Minor Bonus was $10,000

Playing at the $25 denomination with a multiplier of 1 ($250 bet), the Mini Bonus was $12,500 & the Minor Bonus was $62,500 (and well over the Major Jackpot).

What would be a good denomination and multiplier for this game? $1, $2, $5, $10, or $25 denomination?

As far as virtual reels, it's all an illusion.

PS from Lady Luck HQ in the comments: The woman sitting to our right was playing the same $1 Million Grand Jackpot machine with her Yorkie in her lap... Five minutes after we ended recording she won $1.395 Million!! You can see her photo on the Hard Rock s Instagram!! Insane.

I don't know how the JP would advance $999K in such a short time, maybe it's a typo.

I think the name of the game is Golden Century because that's what I see on the denomination screen. The Dragon Link is the Jackpot system.

Yes, the orb was 100X her bet.

*******************************************************

Playing on another machine, she won a jackpot that put her over the $10,000 credit limit so the machine spit out a voucher for the win ($2,781). When she tried to put the voucher back in the machine it was rejected as being over the maximum credit limit. She started with a voucher of over $9,000. Seems they have to wait for handpays from an attendant when getting vouchers for over the credit limit.

On LAST SPIN We Won BIGGEST GRAND JACKPOT on Buffalo Link on YouTube!!! - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0UGlwWfpzo

Grand Jackpot of $20,000 won on this screen. Coin denominations were $0.01, $0.02, $0.05, $0.10. (I can't find the cents symbol on my keyboard, it must be a secret code.)

Since I'm new to vouchers, I see 3 different types of vouchers in this photo. There's 2 Purchase Vouchers which are exactly half of a Hand Pay on the Grand Jackpot plus extra bonuses and were given by a slot attendant, and they're both over $10,000 so I don't know how the machines will accept them, probably will have to take it to the cage. There's 2 Jackpot Vouchers for when she won the over the credit limit jackpots. There's a Cashout Voucher for when she hit the Cashout button on the machine. There was a $1,000 cash tip to the slot attendant who brought the Grand Jackpot vouchers.

How can winning $1,776 malfunction the machine? YouTubers prove they MUST livestream their slot play, lol!

OMG Has This Ever Happened To You 😲 I Just Won A Jackpot & My Machine Went Black - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGU1HSxoC3c

Quote:rsactuaryThat's only 100x her bet. That's not THAT rare, and the game can lay out a 250x orb.

link to original post

I agree, this is clickbait. 100x orbs are not very rare on Dragon Cash/Link machines. The best I have seen is a photo showing the 250x orb landing (and being awarded) on a $1250 bet, the second highest bet they currently go up to.

Also, since this thread has been revived, can anyone please tell me how many times you can expect to land 14 ‘orbs’ in the Hold and Spin bonus before you win the Grand (all 15 orbs)? Using a $5 bet as an example.

Thanks!!

Quote:Roberto21Quote:rsactuaryThat's only 100x her bet. That's not THAT rare, and the game can lay out a 250x orb.

link to original post

I agree, this is clickbait. 100x orbs are not very rare on Dragon Cash/Link machines. The best I have seen is a photo showing the 250x orb landing (and being awarded) on a $1250 bet, the second highest bet they currently go up to.

Also, since this thread has been revived, can anyone please tell me how many times you can expect to land 14 ‘orbs’ in the Hold and Spin bonus before you win the Grand (all 15 orbs)? Using a $5 bet as an example.

Thanks!!

link to original post

I've done a lot of work studying Lightning Link Sahara Gold. So what I'm about to list is my estimates for that game and that game only.

If you start with 6 orbs... the probability of getting to 14 orbs is approximately 8.39%

Starting with 7 orbs... 8.65%

Starting with 8 orbs... 9.04%

Starting with 9 orbs... 9.73%

Starting with 10 orbs... 10.93%

Starting with 11 orbs... 13.19%

Starting with 12 orbs... 18.00%

Starting with 13 orbs... 30.55%

Now getting to the 15th orb is tricky because it depends on your bet size. The way the H&S feature works, is that when you start you have a bunch of "easy" reels, and one "hard" reel. I believe the easy reels have 4 orbs on a reel of 35 stops. (or 8 orbs on a reel of 70 stops - same probability). It's possible that's it's 5 orbs on a reel of 44 stops. My calculations are on a reel of 4/35 which gives a probability of an easy reel hitting on any given spin of about 1 in 8.75.

The hard reel is a reel with one orb and many many stops. The number of stops depends on the reset size of the Grand, your bet and the percent of each dollar that goes to fund the Grand. For the original version of the game, with a $10,000 reset for the Grand, I have estimated that the number of stops on the hard reel for a $5 bet is about 1,591. This is based on an assumption that 2 cents of every dollar contributes to the base win amount of $10,000.

It should be mentioned that you may hit the hard reel earlier in the feature and get to 14 and be left with an easy reel to hit. In that case, you have a 30.55% chance of hitting the Grand (based on the 1 in 8.75 assumption).

Quote:Roberto21Thanks, that’s really good information. Now I know why I hardly ever see the 15th orb flashing. The one time I did hit it was on a Sahara Gold on a $2.50 bet and I hit the hard reel on the last spin. I won’t be holding my breath next time I get 14 that’s for sure haha

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Keep in mind you have three shots at it. So that's about 1 in 530 or so.