May 12th, 2018 at 1:28:13 AM
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Is there a way of calculating the expected total turnover on a machine given how much is put in, how much is net per spin, and what the return to player % is?

Eg if I put $100 in a machine and bet $2.50 per spin on a machine with a return to player % of 90% what would the total value of credits played expected to be assuming I played until I lost all of the credits?

Eg if I put $100 in a machine and bet $2.50 per spin on a machine with a return to player % of 90% what would the total value of credits played expected to be assuming I played until I lost all of the credits?

May 12th, 2018 at 3:07:19 AM
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I believe on average it would be $1,000 in action. But also depends on what you do when you end up with fewer than $2.50 remaining, do you keep playing for lower amount or does that count as “losing it all”? But that’s kinda closer to splitting hairs.

May 12th, 2018 at 3:09:50 AM
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Thanks for your reply. Yes I guess the last part of your answer is splitting hairs!

What is the formula that allowed you to get your answe?

What is the formula that allowed you to get your answe?

May 12th, 2018 at 3:40:08 AM
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Essentially, if your expected loss is 10%, and your expected loss is also $100, then you need to figure out “$100 is 10% of what number?” The answer is going to be $100/10% = $100/0.1 = $1,000.

Remember, of course there’s variance. Some sessions you might only do $150 or $200 coin in. Other times you might hit something big early and end up doing several thousand coin in. But on average, it should be $1,000 coin in.

Remember, of course there’s variance. Some sessions you might only do $150 or $200 coin in. Other times you might hit something big early and end up doing several thousand coin in. But on average, it should be $1,000 coin in.

May 12th, 2018 at 8:46:57 AM
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Quote:RSEssentially, if your expected loss is 10%, and your expected loss is also $100, then you need to figure out “$100 is 10% of what number?” The answer is going to be $100/10% = $100/0.1 = $1,000.

Another way: At $2.50, that means each time you press the button your expected return is a loss of 25-cents. With zero variance you could push the button 400 times before dropping to zero, 400 x $2.50 = $1000

But that's the mean. We've all put in $100 and lost it all after only earning 200 points. And sometimes we can put it $100, cash out with $100 after earning 1000 points. With a bit more information, are there any good ways to estimate median amount of action?

May 12th, 2018 at 9:08:13 AM
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Starting with $100 and wagering $2.50 on a machine that averages 10% hold, I get an average loss of $0.25 per spin. That gives you an average of (100-2.25)/0.25=391 spins. (You are left with $2.25 which won’t cover the next wager.) Your average coin in would be 391*2.50=977.50. Average results are just that: average. If the variance of the machine is known you can get more useful information, such as a probability your results will be within a given range.

Edited: changed 1000 bankroll to 100.

Edited: changed 1000 bankroll to 100.

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