Marknz85
• Posts: 5
Joined: May 7, 2018
May 12th, 2018 at 1:28:13 AM permalink
Is there a way of calculating the expected total turnover on a machine given how much is put in, how much is net per spin, and what the return to player % is?

Eg if I put \$100 in a machine and bet \$2.50 per spin on a machine with a return to player % of 90% what would the total value of credits played expected to be assuming I played until I lost all of the credits?
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
May 12th, 2018 at 3:07:19 AM permalink
I believe on average it would be \$1,000 in action. But also depends on what you do when you end up with fewer than \$2.50 remaining, do you keep playing for lower amount or does that count as “losing it all”? But that’s kinda closer to splitting hairs.
Marknz85
• Posts: 5
Joined: May 7, 2018
May 12th, 2018 at 3:09:50 AM permalink

What is the formula that allowed you to get your answe?
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
May 12th, 2018 at 3:40:08 AM permalink
Essentially, if your expected loss is 10%, and your expected loss is also \$100, then you need to figure out “\$100 is 10% of what number?” The answer is going to be \$100/10% = \$100/0.1 = \$1,000.

Remember, of course there’s variance. Some sessions you might only do \$150 or \$200 coin in. Other times you might hit something big early and end up doing several thousand coin in. But on average, it should be \$1,000 coin in.
TomG
• Posts: 2433
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
May 12th, 2018 at 8:46:57 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Essentially, if your expected loss is 10%, and your expected loss is also \$100, then you need to figure out “\$100 is 10% of what number?” The answer is going to be \$100/10% = \$100/0.1 = \$1,000.

Another way: At \$2.50, that means each time you press the button your expected return is a loss of 25-cents. With zero variance you could push the button 400 times before dropping to zero, 400 x \$2.50 = \$1000

But that's the mean. We've all put in \$100 and lost it all after only earning 200 points. And sometimes we can put it \$100, cash out with \$100 after earning 1000 points. With a bit more information, are there any good ways to estimate median amount of action?
BleedingChipsSlowly
• Posts: 1033
Joined: Jul 9, 2010
May 12th, 2018 at 9:08:13 AM permalink
Starting with \$100 and wagering \$2.50 on a machine that averages 10% hold, I get an average loss of \$0.25 per spin. That gives you an average of (100-2.25)/0.25=391 spins. (You are left with \$2.25 which won’t cover the next wager.) Your average coin in would be 391*2.50=977.50. Average results are just that: average. If the variance of the machine is known you can get more useful information, such as a probability your results will be within a given range.

Edited: changed 1000 bankroll to 100.
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