Marknz85
• Posts: 5
Joined: May 7, 2018
May 7th, 2018 at 4:30:56 AM permalink
Hi
In New Zealand bars and clubs we have up to 18 slot machines linked to a progressive mystery jackpot. The mystery jackpot startup is \$800 and it must be struck by the time it reaches \$1000
The return to player percentage of each machine needs to be 78 to 92% by law
For the purpose of calculating let’s assume the return to player percentage is 90% in the room.
4% of machine turnover is given to the jackpot of which 50% of the 4% then increases the jackpot display. The jackpot is awarded to the player who’s machine makes the contribution equal to or greater than the predetermined value (between \$800 and \$1000)

My questions are
1) is it possible to calculate how much collectively is fed into the machines for the average value jackpot to be awarded? I’m guessing the average value jackpot would be \$900?.
2) is it possible to work out the turnover to create the average jackpot win?
3) what is the formula to calculate the above? I can then add in different %s to work our hypothetical situations when the rtp is different or jackpot contributions are different

beachbumbabs
• Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
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May 7th, 2018 at 6:47:25 AM permalink
Hi, Mark, and welcome to the forum!

Some of what you ask would fall along "trade secret" lines, and you may not get a full answer here. I'm not skilled enough in math to give you a valid answer, either.

I think you're missing a couple of bits of info needed for anyone who is skilled enough to help.you calculate your hypothetical, but I can also say that the average jackpot hit is usually much higher than the simple 800-1000 average is 900 calculation. I do believe the manufacturers want you to THINK it is, though, or they wouldn't publish the range.

If you search "must hit by" on this site (menu bar above), I think you will find a couple of recent threads about similar machines that will be helpful. And perhaps some of the math guys will address your specific example.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
May 7th, 2018 at 9:41:03 AM permalink
Quote: Marknz85

4% of machine turnover is given to the jackpot of which 50% of the 4% then increases the jackpot display. The jackpot is awarded to the player who’s machine makes the contribution equal to or greater than the predetermined value (between \$800 and \$1000)

Do they reset to \$800? if so, where does that other 2% go?

Who makes the games?

Whats the min/max bets?

How far apart are the bars, how many bars are we talking about?

Even if its just a 2 percent meter, that sounds really good. You should be able to get lots of plays and make some good money.

I have to imagine there are AP's targeting the machines. It should be easy to figure out who is who. I suggest you observe a few of them. They may even trade the information for some sheep pics (-;
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Marknz85
• Posts: 5
Joined: May 7, 2018
May 7th, 2018 at 1:30:15 PM permalink

The slot machines and jackpots in bars and clubs are very heavily regulated. All machines are owned by charitible trusts where they habe to donate all profits to the community organisations who apply for those grants. Bar and club owners i believe only get 1.6% of turnover as comission/rent/expensions

From what i have seen all of the setups are pretty similar, there must be 1000s of them across the country, some next door to each other and others miles apart

Each time the jackpot is won it resets itself to \$800 and a random number generator selects a number bewteen \$800 and \$1000 which becomes the new jackpot value. If its truely random the average jackpot over time must be \$900? My asumtption is the other 2% potentialy covers the startup?

Im not sure who makes the jackpot system but there are all different brands of machines linker together eg aristrocrat igt etc

Bets range from \$0.01 to the regulated max ot \$2.50 per spin
Marknz85
• Posts: 5
Joined: May 7, 2018
May 7th, 2018 at 2:58:28 PM permalink
The other question is: if I put \$100 into a machine with a return to player percentage of 90% and I gamble until I lose it all, is there a way of calculating the total value of credits played? Given that I will win credits along the way and play them until I ultimately walk away with nothing
onenickelmiracle
• Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
May 7th, 2018 at 4:42:43 PM permalink
I'm sure you're not the first to want to target these games. Didn't Peter Liston who wrote the book Million Dollar Slots talk about the syndicates after these games? I'm sure Peter Liston mentioned New Zealand specifically. If so, your odds will stink even if you play at the right time, they'll be betting max as fast as they can at numbers that don't even allow for much profit. They typically sit at machines until the numbers get there then slam away, as I recall from the book.
I am a robot.
beachbumbabs
• Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
May 7th, 2018 at 4:58:19 PM permalink
Quote: Marknz85

(Snip)

Each time the jackpot is won it resets itself to \$800 and a random number generator selects a number bewteen \$800 and \$1000 which becomes the new jackpot value. If its truely random the average jackpot over time must be \$900? My asumtption is the other 2% potentialy covers the startup?

Im not sure who makes the jackpot system but there are all different brands of machines linker together eg aristrocrat igt etc

Bets range from \$0.01 to the regulated max ot \$2.50 per spin

I believe you are correct about the RNG determining a jackpot hit. However, in saying that, you're assuming an equal weight is given to each possible jackpot amount within that range. Again, not an expert, but my understanding is they can weight the probabilities of when it will hit to favor a later number. It's not equally probable that it will hit at \$800.01 (maybe has 30 seeds among 10,000) vs. \$944.37 (maybe has 300 seeds among 10,000), for a total SWAG at how it works. (There are many ways they could program it and still be random; this is just a way to visualize it).

It's perhaps analogous to putting tickets in a drum. Any one could be drawn, but the guy who's placed 100 tickets in has a higher probability of winning than a player who only put in 1.

Or I could be completely wrong, as I don't know NZ laws on how the machines must operate. But I know many work in a similar way here.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
May 7th, 2018 at 8:22:29 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I'm sure you're not the first to want to target these games. Didn't Peter Liston who wrote the book Million Dollar Slots talk about the syndicates after these games? I'm sure Peter Liston mentioned New Zealand specifically. If so, your odds will stink even if you play at the right time, they'll be betting max as fast as they can at numbers that don't even allow for much profit. They typically sit at machines until the numbers get there then slam away, as I recall from the book.

I can't remember if he talked about the bars. I thought they were targeting the larger number at the casinos. Either way, if there are enough bars and machines around with 2% meters I have to imagine there's a fair amount of money to be made by an individual.

I should have asked if all the machines and games are linked at each location(how much action are they getting?) if so, with 2% meters I really think you would get many plays.

Just think about how many hustlers and AP's are in Vegas, yet you can still get on some good plays.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪