darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 27th, 2018 at 8:24:52 PM permalink
When is the optimal time to start playing a must hit:

Meter moves \$10 per spin in following pattern - one cent, one cent, two cents repeat

Must hit by \$8,888

For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
• Posts: 435
April 27th, 2018 at 8:51:13 PM permalink
\$8887 sounds optimal to me.
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 27th, 2018 at 8:53:40 PM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

\$8887 sounds optimal to me.

Haha

Yeah i dont need math analysis for that one

But meter isnt that close where im at

For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
• Posts: 435
April 27th, 2018 at 9:00:13 PM permalink
A guess of house edge on that denomination is needed. Is there a 2nd meter?
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 27th, 2018 at 9:07:37 PM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

A guess of house edge on that denomination is needed. Is there a 2nd meter?

Yes

Must hit by \$1199

Meter moves 4 cents per \$10 spin
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
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April 28th, 2018 at 7:30:12 AM permalink
I hate to bump but...

Hello is anybody out there?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 10179
April 28th, 2018 at 9:54:30 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I hate to bump but...

Hello is anybody out there?

I'm no expert, but don't you need to let the forum know what the return is not counting the progressive? If it is giving back 88% not including the jackpot it is a quite different analysis than if it is giving back 95% not including the jackpot. I also think these questions should state whether or not there are any tax implications, as well as if there are any comp implications. Plus what +EV is the minimum you would accept for your time?

So I think the forum's minds that could answer you are silent because the question is too vague.
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 28th, 2018 at 10:40:15 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'm no expert, but don't you need to let the forum know what the return is not counting the progressive? If it is giving back 88% not including the jackpot it is a quite different analysis than if it is giving back 95% not including the jackpot. I also think these questions should state whether or not there are any tax implications, as well as if there are any comp implications. Plus what +EV is the minimum you would accept for your time?

So I think the forum's minds that could answer you are silent because the question is too vague.

Thanks Soopoo. Not good at this type of analysis so dont mind being guided in right direction mathematically

92% payback is minimum it can be

Every \$3000 coin-in gets \$10 freeplay. Of course mailer opportunities later depending on coin-in

Taxes are like any atlantic city casino (but this is not atlantic city) \$1200 higher you get w2g

Anything else (besides casino direct address lol)
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
• Posts: 8277
April 28th, 2018 at 10:55:53 AM permalink
You need to know the meter rate more precisely. I say the optimal point is as high as possible but not high enough that another person will get on and not get off until they hit it.
I am a robot.
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 21880
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April 28th, 2018 at 12:18:18 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

When is the optimal time to start playing a must hit:

Meter moves \$10 per spin in following pattern - one cent, one cent, two cents repeat

Must hit by \$8,888

I take it you won't be covering must hits in your AP book.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 28th, 2018 at 12:33:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I take it you won't be covering must hits in your AP book.

Exactly!!!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
• Posts: 11726
April 28th, 2018 at 12:48:49 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

You need to know the meter rate more precisely. I say the optimal point is as high as possible but not high enough that another person will get on and not get off until they hit it.

I'd like to know the percentage a now optimal must hit machine is already occupied by another person. Anyone care to guess?
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 21880
April 28th, 2018 at 1:06:43 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Exactly!!!

I get the feeling you are going for the best AP move ever. An AP book with nothing but a bunch of bank of pages. (-;

You could do one of them deals where you only make 1 copy and sell it for a few million.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 28th, 2018 at 1:11:28 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I get the feeling you are going for the best AP move ever. An AP book with nothing but a bunch of bank of pages. (-;

You could do one of them deals where you only make 1 copy and sell it for a few million.

To be clear its a memoir. Not a how-to book although to understand what moves I was doing at the time (2012-2014) there will be some stuff an AP or non-AP can learn

Think more Richard Marcus' American Roulette than Ed Thorpes Beat the Dealer in terms of style
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 10179
April 28th, 2018 at 2:37:42 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Thanks Soopoo. Not good at this type of analysis so dont mind being guided in right direction mathematically

92% payback is minimum it can be

Every \$3000 coin-in gets \$10 freeplay. Of course mailer opportunities later depending on coin-in

Taxes are like any atlantic city casino (but this is not atlantic city) \$1200 higher you get w2g

Anything else (besides casino direct address lol)

Once again, I'm not the expert.... but the '92% payback is minimum it can be' is not answering the question. To use a really simple example....... If it is \$1 per spin and the jackpot is now \$100,000 without a must hit feature, and you would hit it 1 in a million times, then your EV from the jackpot hit is 10% of your bet. If the total return is 92%, then your "non jackpot" return is 82%. So you may have to figure out losing 18% of each bet until you hit the jackpot. Now if you know how fast the meter moves per bet you can figure out where to start. There are some subtleties, but it is something like that.
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 28th, 2018 at 2:48:27 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Once again, I'm not the expert.... but the '92% payback is minimum it can be' is not answering the question. To use a really simple example....... If it is \$1 per spin and the jackpot is now \$100,000 without a must hit feature, and you would hit it 1 in a million times, then your EV from the jackpot hit is 10% of your bet. If the total return is 92%, then your "non jackpot" return is 82%. So you may have to figure out losing 18% of each bet until you hit the jackpot. Now if you know how fast the meter moves per bet you can figure out where to start. There are some subtleties, but it is something like that.

Ok thanks

I knew it wasnt simple

I will see if I can reasonably figure it out myself. If not its no biggie.

That \$8,888 just looks so sexy!!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
someone
Joined: Nov 9, 2014
• Posts: 36
April 28th, 2018 at 6:59:34 PM permalink
What is the reset value of the progressive?
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 28th, 2018 at 7:59:35 PM permalink
Quote: someone

What is the reset value of the progressive?

Good question. It doesnt have a start and end like some do. Just says must hit by

Unless Im there when it resets no obvious way of knowing (unless theres some way I dont know to tell)
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
someone
Joined: Nov 9, 2014
• Posts: 36
April 28th, 2018 at 9:17:45 PM permalink
You don't need to know the exact value. If we use a higher value it will mean you are a bit more conservative on your start point. What is the lowest value you have seen for the progressive?
We can use that as the reset value to start the evaluation. If you then see a lower value later you can move your move point lower.
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 28th, 2018 at 9:27:22 PM permalink
Quote: someone

You don't need to know the exact value. If we use a higher value it will mean you are a bit more conservative on your start point. What is the lowest value you have seen for the progressive?
We can use that as the reset value to start the evaluation. If you then see a lower value later you can move your move point lower.

\$8400 it was higher but dont remember exact amount. Maybe \$8429 or aomething like that
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
• Posts: 3634
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April 28th, 2018 at 11:10:14 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

When is the optimal time to start playing a must hit:

Meter moves \$10 per spin in following pattern - one cent, one cent, two cents repeat

Must hit by \$8,888

Depends....Are you planning to play with or without a mask?🤓😜
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
• Posts: 8277
April 29th, 2018 at 10:10:07 AM permalink
It's funny people can see the base return matters for must hits, but then they blindly believe it doesn't on vulture slots. You play a machine not knowing everything but eventually you have to either no longer play it or no longer use the same strategy.
I am a robot.
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 10943
April 29th, 2018 at 10:21:22 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Depends....Are you planning to play with or without a mask?🤓😜

Big jackpot = show ID

Im sure you can figure it out
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
• Posts: 8277
July 7th, 2020 at 1:40:01 PM permalink
Played a machine yesterday which may have been good, but wasn't sure. I left it, came back took a picture, decided to play small until the lowest progressive hit. I hit the major in 3 spins without moving the major at all. I was the last person to touch it, so I was glad I came back and now know first hand the amounts definitely do not matter, they can hit in between pennies on the meter. I have pictures, maybe one day I'll post them.
I am a robot.