Optimal start must hit?
Meter moves $10 per spin in following pattern - one cent, one cent, two cents repeat
Must hit by $8,888
Meter amount should read???
Quote: BTLWI$8887 sounds optimal to me.
Haha
Yeah i dont need math analysis for that one
But meter isnt that close where im at
Numbers please
Quote: BTLWIA guess of house edge on that denomination is needed. Is there a 2nd meter?
Yes
Must hit by $1199
Meter moves 4 cents per $10 spin
Hello is anybody out there?
Quote: darkozI hate to bump but...
Hello is anybody out there?
I'm no expert, but don't you need to let the forum know what the return is not counting the progressive? If it is giving back 88% not including the jackpot it is a quite different analysis than if it is giving back 95% not including the jackpot. I also think these questions should state whether or not there are any tax implications, as well as if there are any comp implications. Plus what +EV is the minimum you would accept for your time?
So I think the forum's minds that could answer you are silent because the question is too vague.
Quote: SOOPOOI'm no expert, but don't you need to let the forum know what the return is not counting the progressive? If it is giving back 88% not including the jackpot it is a quite different analysis than if it is giving back 95% not including the jackpot. I also think these questions should state whether or not there are any tax implications, as well as if there are any comp implications. Plus what +EV is the minimum you would accept for your time?
So I think the forum's minds that could answer you are silent because the question is too vague.
Thanks Soopoo. Not good at this type of analysis so dont mind being guided in right direction mathematically
92% payback is minimum it can be
Every $3000 coin-in gets $10 freeplay. Of course mailer opportunities later depending on coin-in
Taxes are like any atlantic city casino (but this is not atlantic city) $1200 higher you get w2g
Anything else (besides casino direct address lol)
I take it you won't be covering must hits in your AP book.Quote: darkozWhen is the optimal time to start playing a must hit:
Meter moves $10 per spin in following pattern - one cent, one cent, two cents repeat
Must hit by $8,888
Meter amount should read???
Quote: AxelWolfI take it you won't be covering must hits in your AP book.
Exactly!!!
Quote: onenickelmiracleYou need to know the meter rate more precisely. I say the optimal point is as high as possible but not high enough that another person will get on and not get off until they hit it.
I'd like to know the percentage a now optimal must hit machine is already occupied by another person. Anyone care to guess?
I get the feeling you are going for the best AP move ever. An AP book with nothing but a bunch of bank of pages. (-;Quote: darkozExactly!!!
You could do one of them deals where you only make 1 copy and sell it for a few million.
p.s. just busting your balls.
Quote: AxelWolfI get the feeling you are going for the best AP move ever. An AP book with nothing but a bunch of bank of pages. (-;
You could do one of them deals where you only make 1 copy and sell it for a few million.
p.s. just busting your balls.
To be clear its a memoir. Not a how-to book although to understand what moves I was doing at the time (2012-2014) there will be some stuff an AP or non-AP can learn
Think more Richard Marcus' American Roulette than Ed Thorpes Beat the Dealer in terms of style
Quote: darkozThanks Soopoo. Not good at this type of analysis so dont mind being guided in right direction mathematically
92% payback is minimum it can be
Every $3000 coin-in gets $10 freeplay. Of course mailer opportunities later depending on coin-in
Taxes are like any atlantic city casino (but this is not atlantic city) $1200 higher you get w2g
Anything else (besides casino direct address lol)
Once again, I'm not the expert.... but the '92% payback is minimum it can be' is not answering the question. To use a really simple example....... If it is $1 per spin and the jackpot is now $100,000 without a must hit feature, and you would hit it 1 in a million times, then your EV from the jackpot hit is 10% of your bet. If the total return is 92%, then your "non jackpot" return is 82%. So you may have to figure out losing 18% of each bet until you hit the jackpot. Now if you know how fast the meter moves per bet you can figure out where to start. There are some subtleties, but it is something like that.
Quote: SOOPOOOnce again, I'm not the expert.... but the '92% payback is minimum it can be' is not answering the question. To use a really simple example....... If it is $1 per spin and the jackpot is now $100,000 without a must hit feature, and you would hit it 1 in a million times, then your EV from the jackpot hit is 10% of your bet. If the total return is 92%, then your "non jackpot" return is 82%. So you may have to figure out losing 18% of each bet until you hit the jackpot. Now if you know how fast the meter moves per bet you can figure out where to start. There are some subtleties, but it is something like that.
Ok thanks
I knew it wasnt simple
I will see if I can reasonably figure it out myself. If not its no biggie.
That $8,888 just looks so sexy!!
Quote: someoneWhat is the reset value of the progressive?
Good question. It doesnt have a start and end like some do. Just says must hit by
Unless Im there when it resets no obvious way of knowing (unless theres some way I dont know to tell)
We can use that as the reset value to start the evaluation. If you then see a lower value later you can move your move point lower.
Quote: someoneYou don't need to know the exact value. If we use a higher value it will mean you are a bit more conservative on your start point. What is the lowest value you have seen for the progressive?
We can use that as the reset value to start the evaluation. If you then see a lower value later you can move your move point lower.
$8400 it was higher but dont remember exact amount. Maybe $8429 or aomething like that
Quote: darkozWhen is the optimal time to start playing a must hit:
Meter moves $10 per spin in following pattern - one cent, one cent, two cents repeat
Must hit by $8,888
Meter amount should read???
Depends....Are you planning to play with or without a mask?🤓😜
Quote: MaxPenDepends....Are you planning to play with or without a mask?🤓😜
Big jackpot = show ID
Im sure you can figure it out
