Progressive Jackpot Help!

Alright guys, first post here but my buddies and I are sitting around with thumbs up our butts trying to figure out this mystery progressive jackpot at our local casino in Kansas. It’s an Ainsworth penny slot (Bonus Bonanza) with a $5 max bet. The major progressive must hit by $5000 ($4850 right now) and it is currently at a rate that we’ve observed has been been 1 penny for every $10 in action. Assuming a conservative house edge of 12%... How do you figure the target point of this machine?

Thanks,

Devin

Quote: radicaldg

Alright guys, first post here but my buddies and I are sitting around with thumbs up our butts trying to figure out this mystery progressive jackpot at our local casino in Kansas. It’s an Ainsworth penny slot (Bonus Bonanza) with a $5 max bet. The major progressive must hit by $5000 ($4850 right now) and it is currently at a rate that we’ve observed has been been 1 penny for every $10 in action. Assuming a conservative house edge of 12%... How do you figure the target point of this machine?

Thanks,

Devin

When you are losing trying to snag the progressive, what comps/free play are you getting?
What are your personal tax consequences, if any, if you hit the progressive?

Without those two pieces of information any answer given to you is incomplete.

Quote: radicaldg

Alright guys, first post here but my buddies and I are sitting around with thumbs up our butts trying to figure out this mystery progressive jackpot at our local casino in Kansas. It’s an Ainsworth penny slot (Bonus Bonanza) with a $5 max bet. The major progressive must hit by $5000 ($4850 right now) and it is currently at a rate that we’ve observed has been been 1 penny for every $10 in action. Assuming a conservative house edge of 12%... How do you figure the target point of this machine?

Thanks,

Devin

Assuming it will take you to the limit, which is not an unlikely assumption, do you really want to run $150,000 through an Ainsworth machine?

You guys are the experts here, I know nothing about slot
play. I play poker full time at our casino and never venture outside the card room. My buddy had hit a machine similar to this for a much smaller amount the night before and he had mentioned the $5k machine that started this thread and it was a super interesting concept (I didn’t even know these jackpots existed) but this one was significant enough to get my attention.

Quote: radicaldg

Alright guys, first post here but my buddies and I are sitting around with thumbs up our butts trying to figure out this mystery progressive jackpot at our local casino in Kansas. It’s an Ainsworth penny slot (Bonus Bonanza) with a $5 max bet. The major progressive must hit by $5000 ($4850 right now) and it is currently at a rate that we’ve observed has been been 1 penny for every $10 in action. Assuming a conservative house edge of 12%... How do you figure the target point of this machine?

Thanks,

Devin

With respect to SOOPOO"s questions, you can figure that out for yourself, but I'm just going to tell you when the machine is positive under your parameters.

The first thing that you have to understand is that 12% you're wanting to assume would also include the Progressives at the average hit point, so do you know what the starting points for those are? If you think the machine holds 12% just on the reels, my opinion is you're shooting a little low. I would assume that it holds about 15% on the reels and that you get something near 3% back based on the expected hit point of the Progressives.

The first thing you have to do is determine what sort of coin-in you'd have to play to lock it up. That part is easy, the meter is at 4850.00, which means that there are potentially 15,000 meter moves at a cost of $10 coin-in per penny movement. That means that $150,000 coin-in is what it would take to guarantee it.

If you assume that it is expected to hit between the must-hit point and where it is now, then it hits at $4,925.00 with $75,000 coin-in.

75000 * .15 = $11,250

Thus, you expect to lose $11,250 in order to pop it at $4,925, which is an expected loss of $6,325, overall.

That's obviously nowhere near playable.

$10/penny is not a great meter. Here's what we can figure out, how much coin-in at an expected loss on the reels of 15% would it take to have an expected loss of $5,000, or less?

(.15 * x) = 5000

x = $33,333.6

Therefore, we're going to call it $33,334.

Again, if you want to go with expecting it to hit at the halfway point, then you can double that to 66,667.2 and go from there. That would effectively be 6,667 meter moves from a lock up, so:

5000 - 66.67 = $4,933.33

Okay, so let's do it in reverse. If we start playing at $4,933.33, then we expect it to hit after 3,334 meter moves, which is 33,340 coin in. The expected loss on that is 33,340 * .15 = $5,001 to hit it at $4,966.67, so you would expect to lose $33.33 on that.

Therefore, $4,933.33 is right about when you can start looking at it and performing the above calculation to determine if it's a play ignoring points, comps, taxes...etc. You'll have to factor in that other stuff on your own.

That $10/penny meter move really hurts.

Finally, 15% might be too low of a house edge to assume on the reels. I'd really want to know what the Progressives are worth at the average hit point before I'd even assume that.***

***It appears that the minimum slot payback in a Kansas Commercial Casino licensed and regulated by the state is 87%. Therefore, the safest assumption would be to determine the value of the Progressives at the average hit point and then deduct that from 87% for a worst-case scenario.

***By compact, the machines at the Kansas Tribal Casinos must return a minimum of 80%, so same thing. Although, I would be really surprised if they didn't return at least 85% overall. (Which includes average progressive value)

Quote: bobbartop

Assuming it will take you to the limit, which is not an unlikely assumption, do you really want to run $150,000 through an Ainsworth machine?

Doesn't matter. The machine is in a terrible state right now. Although, I don't see why being, "Taken to the limit," is, 'Not unlikely.' I don't think I've ever had one take me to the very last penny. I had a $40.00 minor go to $39.98 once, though.

Quote: Mission146

If you assume that it is expected to hit between the must-hit point and where it is now, then it hits at $4,925.00 with $75,000 coin-in.

Is that a realistic assumption?

And in the relatively few times I've even messed around with Ainsworth, they always seem waaaay slow on their meters, especially compared to other manufacturers. Although, at the right casino, I've seen the best of IGT slowed to a crawl. I've never understood such a "greedy" philosophy. Why not set a minor at 1% and a major at something like 1/2%? Is it really going to hurt? I've always felt that "less is more".

Quote: bobbartop

Is that a realistic assumption?

And in the relatively few times I've even messed around with Ainsworth, they always seem waaaay slow on their meters, especially compared to other manufacturers. Although, at the right casino, I've seen the best of IGT slowed to a crawl. I've never understood such a "greedy" philosophy. Why not set a minor at 1% and a major at something like 1/2%? Is it really going to hurt? I've always felt that "less is more".

I know a lot of people who use that assumption, and here is the logic:

When the Progressive is hit, the machine then picks a new state for the meter and determines that is when the Progressive will hit. That state can be anywhere between the reset value of the Progressive and the maximum possible must-hit point. Given that such is the case, and assuming that all individual meter states are equally likely to win the progressive, the progressive is expected to hit halfway between where it is now and the must-hit point at all times.

In reality, you usually hit it sooner than that or later than that, obviously. I don't know if there's a compelling argument that the machines are weighted high when it comes to that. I've certainly seen some hit very low just in passing.

I don't really know about Ainsworth meters compared to others. I don't really pay much attention to the manufacturer when I see one of these, but at the main casino I frequent (where a large majority of my must-hit plays have come from) I can say that the Quad Shots seem to be the only ones with a meter move on anything that is greater than $5. That, I presume, would also include some Ainsworths.*

*I just looked and Rumble Rumble is Ainsworth. The Rumble Rumble machines that I have seen move the Major at a $5/penny rate and the Minor at a $2.50/penny rate.

EDIT: Sorry, missed your last statement. I imagine it has more to do with managing the overall return of the machine than anything. A secondary concern might be having the reels play half decent, they suck on a lot of machines as it is.

Quote: Mission146

Doesn't matter. The machine is in a terrible state right now. Although, I don't see why being, "Taken to the limit," is, 'Not unlikely.' I don't think I've ever had one take me to the very last penny. I had a $40.00 minor go to $39.98 once, though.

Sorry, I wrote my following post before this one of yours came up. But you obviously have way more experience at this than I do. Maybe my glass tends to be half empty, but I will never forget a $50 minor on a Quick Strike (Konami?) taking me to $50. No, not $49.99. lol I was livid, and of course I have a pic of it somewhere on my hard drive, just so I can whine about it. lol

Quote: Mission146

I know a lot of people who use that assumption, and here is the logic:

When the Progressive is hit, the machine then picks a new state for the meter and determines that is when the Progressive will hit. That state can be anywhere between the reset value of the Progressive and the maximum possible must-hit point. Given that such is the case, and assuming that all individual meter states are equally likely to win the progressive, the progressive is expected to hit halfway between where it is now and the must-hit point at all times.

In reality, you usually hit it sooner than that or later than that, obviously. I don't know if there's a compelling argument that the machines are weighted high when it comes to that. I've certainly seen some hit very low just in passing.

I don't really know about Ainsworth meters compared to others. I don't really pay much attention to the manufacturer when I see one of these, but at the main casino I frequent (where a large majority of my must-hit plays have come from) I can say that the Quad Shots seem to be the only ones with a meter move on anything that is greater than $5. That, I presume, would also include some Ainsworths.*

*I just looked and Rumble Rumble is Ainsworth. The Rumble Rumble machines that I have seen move the Major at a $5/penny rate and the Minor at a $2.50/penny rate.

EDIT: Sorry, missed your last statement. I imagine it has more to do with managing the overall return of the machine than anything. A secondary concern might be having the reels play half decent, they suck on a lot of machines as it is.

I have certainly had my share of "early" hits too. But I don't know why, I just assumed they were weighted toward the limit. Again, maybe it's my "glass is half empty" negativism. I will yield to your experience and wisdom. Thank you.

Quote: bobbartop

Sorry, I wrote my following post before this one of yours came up. But you obviously have way more experience at this than I do. Maybe my glass tends to be half empty, but I will never forget a $50 minor on a Quick Strike (Konami?) taking me to $50. No, not $49.99. lol I was livid, and of course I have a pic of it somewhere on my hard drive, just so I can whine about it. lol

Having something to gripe about is part of the fun!

Besides, a memory is a memory. I bet you don't remember the precise penny that one that hit way early hit on!

Quote: bobbartop

I have certainly had my share of "early" hits too. But I don't know why, I just assumed they were weighted toward the limit. Again, maybe it's my "glass is half empty" negativism. I will yield to your experience and wisdom. Thank you.

Thanks for the compliment, and I certainly have experience...but wisdom is a huge stretch! I'm just making an assumption as to how they should behave, honestly. I don't know for a 100% fact (as in, haven't seen a PAR Sheet) that it just picks a random meter state.

Although, one thing I like is the verbiage on the Rules screen that, "Larger bets are more likely to, blah, blah, blah." Something along those lines. The statement is only true because a larger bet crosses more meter states at one time, so one of those meter states is more likely to be the winner than it is with a smaller bet. Proportionate to the actual bet amount, it makes literally no difference.

Thank you all very much for your input on this! I will report back if/when it gets up above $4933.

Just be cautious. It’s nothing to run 60-70% on the reels over an extended period of time by way of fewer than expected bonus games and/or sucky bonus games. Combine that with hitting after the expected point, or even near it, and it’s still no stretch to think you could lose five figures on something with not a hugely positive expectation.

If you’ve got the roll that such a loss doesn’t concern you, go for it!

I had no business going to the casino tonight, I've been sick since before Christmas. But I went anyway, because the free play was more important to me than not getting sicker. I meant to go in, get the free play, and quickly leave. Didn't work out that way. As I was leaving I saw a Konami Quick Strike, mini was $180, must hit by $200, maxi was $1230, must hit by $2000. I knew from experience that both meters were pretty fast and I decided to knock off that minor. About ten minutes in I heard it pop. Looked up expecting to see the minor hit, but it was the major. $1230, my first W2G of 2018. Of course, I haven't been out of the house for three weeks. While the girl went and got my money, she unlocked the machine and I hit the minor for $191 by the time she got back. So it's funny, we were talking about it being weighted or not earlier today in the thread, and tonight I hit a small major. Go figure.

By the way, codeine cough syrup, one of God's little miracles. I'm going back to bed.

Basically what Mission said... except I'll add in/reinforce: $10 meter rate blows big time... and 12% HE is not conservative. In my opinion that's liberal.

Quote: radicaldg

Alright guys, first post here but my buddies and I are sitting around with thumbs up our butts trying to figure out this mystery progressive jackpot at our local casino in Kansas. It’s an Ainsworth penny slot (Bonus Bonanza) with a $5 max bet. The major progressive must hit by $5000 ($4850 right now) and it is currently at a rate that we’ve observed has been been 1 penny for every $10 in action. Assuming a conservative house edge of 12%... How do you figure the target point of this machine?

My suggestion would be start at $4,948-4,950 (expected $25,000 coin-in, and Kansas 87% minimum) unless you obtain better information. +$1,400-1,600 EV.

Bring $30K to be safe.

Typically you will finish between +15K/-20K. I don't think I've heard of anyone losing more than -22K on an Ainsworth 5K.

My personal best/worst +7K/-9K.
Best one 4,946-4,971. Machine was running hot. +$2,258 when the progressive dropped.
Worst one 4,879-4,982. Needed -$14,414 to hit the progressive.

P.S. Know your local area. When do the local "wise guys" start playing? 4,948 might be nice, but the locals might play at 4,840 or 4,890 or 4,930. In Vegas, it's hard to find games over 4,880...I recently played a 4,889 (90%, $5.55 meter) - highest 5K I saw in the past two months. At one non-Vegas casino, local pros start around 4,830-4,840 (Highest I saw in 2017 was 4,855 around 5 am...and a pro team started playing a few hours later. In 2015-2016 you could find 4,880-4,890s, but times change...sigh).

Quote: Romes

Basically what Mission said... except I'll add in/reinforce: $10 meter rate blows big time... and 12% HE is not conservative. In my opinion that's liberal.

$5.56 major, $5.00 minor ... is the typical Ainsworth 1c 5K progressive (like Bonus Bonanza)
$6.67 major, $2.50 minor ... typical Ainsworth 25c 5K.
However, weird ones do exist. Saw a $20 major, $6.67 minor 25c 5K. Played the minor for about 10-20 min before noticing the meter. Whoops!!!!

I've seen 85-96% 5Ks in the wild (15% to 4% HE). Other settings may exist.
Depending on your area, 12% might be conservative, or might be liberal. Romes plays in a very tight area.

Harrahs tends to be 85-86% (until they drop it even lower). Their chain tends to be tightening progressives. Some casinos are loosening. All depends on the GM or corporate... their decisions and philosophy. Some casinos go up & down over the years...so it helps to know which year a machine was installed or last-changed (during a "loose time" or a "tight time").

(1) Conservative players wait until machines are 104-105+% (front-end only)...so they don't bother about the technical details.

In some areas, as of 2017-2018, a 104-105% machine is next to impossible to find...

(2) Many Vegas players are aggressive. When a machine is only 98-99%, they are interested since they factor in the following...
(a) mailers (Free Play) ... possibly with multiple players (also, a risk of mailer being revoked)
(b) points (0.1-1.5%), point multiplier days (could be 2.5-2.6+%)
(c) loss rebates (during play, or afterwards)
(d) comps (0.2-0.6+%), sometimes can be converted into cash or free play
(e) drawings - At some casinos, you earn enough tickets that you usually win some $250/$500 prizes at the weekly/monthly drawings & occasionally $5K-20K or a car.
(f) ...basically all the marketing & "player reinvestment" benefits.

(3) Tax issues
(a) if you have multiple people involved, might want to talk tax brackets first.
(b) If you are not a professional, lots of jackpots in a year may trigger the AMT. Some states do not allow itemized deductions on Schedule A for gambling losses.
(c) ...maybe talk with someone, either on-line, or a tax professional... (especially if your income is $100K+ and your yearly jackpots are over $5K).

Quote: Mission146

Doesn't matter. The machine is in a terrible state right now. Although, I don't see why being, "Taken to the limit," is, 'Not unlikely.' I don't think I've ever had one take me to the very last penny. I had a $40.00 minor go to $39.98 once, though.

I've hit a 5K progressive on my 2nd spin. Also had one go to 4,999.88

Quote: Mission146

Just be cautious. It’s nothing to run 60-70% on the reels over an extended period of time by way of fewer than expected bonus games and/or sucky bonus games. Combine that with hitting after the expected point, or even near it, and it’s still no stretch to think you could lose five figures on something with not a hugely positive expectation.

If you’ve got the roll that such a loss doesn’t concern you, go for it!

Ainsworths rarely play worse than 70% over extended periods.
Konamis have much worse variance, can play 20-30% for quite a while. They also have a bigger upside.

Last year I had very bad luck on 5K progressives. Net negative for 2017 on 5K majors.

On 5K-10K progressives, even though I play more conservatively than most APs...my win rate is only about 60%.
So expect 40% or more losers. Not unusual to have a bad run & lose 8/9 out of 10. Also, can run smoking hot & win 8/9 out of 10.

----
**** Also consider the speed of the machine.

Play it at $0.50 as fast as you can for 30 seconds. Then figure out how much the major will move each hour. A really slow machine might take you over 24 hours to play in the worst case. (I have seen someone play a 5K progressive for 11+ days... and there are 3-6 person teams that bet $0.50-1.00 for 2-4 days...to lower the variance).

EV/hr is important. ...not just EV. (Personally I don't like to play a 5K unless it's at least +1,250-2,000 EV and 200-400 EV/hr, including pts/comps, but not including future benefits like FP/drawings).

Hi folks, I'm a new member and making an attempt at being a neophyte (i.e. caveman), AP player. I have found all the information you have shared on this thread fascinating and very informative. Thank you for that! I was checking out my local casino here in NY for possible must pay, progressive slot plays and I stumbled upon this machine made by Aristocrat called the "Double Bliss Jackpot". I've read many of your extensive analysis of various WMS and Ainsworth machines, but I haven't seen any mention of Aristocrat's machines. Does anybody have any experience or insights into their Slots? Is there a difference in how the "old school" stepper machines play relative to the new video based machines? Thanks to all the detailed explanations so kindly provided by mamat and Mission146, I think I have the math and calculations down, I was just wondering if these machines have any pitfalls or other quirks that make them playable or unplayable?
Minor Jackpot $1058.23 Must Pay by $1199, Major Jackpot $15,696.11 Must Pay by $15,999.
Thank you in advance for any insight you might like to share!

Quote: Narwhal

Hi folks, I'm a new member and making an attempt at being a neophyte (i.e. caveman), AP player. I have found all the information you have shared on this thread fascinating and very informative. Thank you for that! I was checking out my local casino here in NY for possible must pay, progressive slot plays and I stumbled upon this machine made by Aristocrat called the "Double Bliss Jackpot". I've read many of your extensive analysis of various WMS and Ainsworth machines, but I haven't seen any mention of Aristocrat's machines. Does anybody have any experience or insights into their Slots? Is there a difference in how the "old school" stepper machines play relative to the new video based machines? Thanks to all the detailed explanations so kindly provided by mamat and Mission146, I think I have the math and calculations down, I was just wondering if these machines have any pitfalls or other quirks that make them playable or unplayable?
Minor Jackpot $1058.23 Must Pay by $1199, Major Jackpot $15,696.11 Must Pay by $15,999.
Thank you in advance for any insight you might like to share!

A word of advice. You will have to play like $4,000-$8,000 coin in before you hit that Major.

Thank you Nathan. I figured it would be more than that, not a problem. Thanks again.

Quote: Nathan

A word of advice. You will have to play like $4,000-$8,000 coin in before you hit that Major.

According to my math that would be FANTASTIC. Nathan this is why you shouldn't comment on threads like this, It's not just that you don't know what you are talking about, it's that you don't have any idea that you don't know what you are talking, and yet you feel the need to talk about it. That's dangerous. Comment on things that won't have any affect on someones bankroll.

This should be left to guys like mamat and mission.

Edit for clarification. According to what Nathan said it would be fantastic. I certainty don't want anyone to think the actual machine in question would be fantastic.

Quote: Nathan

A word of advice. You will have to play like $4,000-$8,000 coin in before you hit that Major.

Can you show the work that led you to this conclusion? If you can't, you probably should use number in your replies anymore.

Quote: sabre

Can you show the work that led you to this conclusion? If you can't, you probably should use number in your replies anymore.

Multiple Forum Posters have said that they dropped $4,000-8,000 before The Progressive hit on Jackpots that look like they are only about $400 away.

Quote: Nathan

Multiple Forum Posters have said that they dropped $4,000-8,000 before The Progressive hit on Jackpots that look like they are only about $400 away.

Looks to me like it'd take about $100k coin in. You'd have to run pretty hot to "only" lose that $8k. You do realize that if it cost $4k to $8k to hit this jackpot, it'd be a great play, right? Your post made it sound like you were advising against trying, but who wouldn't pay $8k to hit a $15k jackpot?

Edit: in fairness, here's my math: 0.2% contribution, $400 max climb. 400/.002 = $200k. But, placement of the actual jackpot is random, so divide by 2 & get $100k.

Quote: Narwhal

Thank you Nathan. I figured it would be more than that, not a problem. Thanks again.

Narwhal, don’t listen to Nathan. She thinks she can predict lottery numbers and that picking hot numbers on roulette is wise.

Quote: Narwhal

Hi folks, I'm a new member and making an attempt at being a neophyte (i.e. caveman), AP player. I have found all the information you have shared on this thread fascinating and very informative. Thank you for that! I was checking out my local casino here in NY for possible must pay, progressive slot plays and I stumbled upon this machine made by Aristocrat called the "Double Bliss Jackpot". I've read many of your extensive analysis of various WMS and Ainsworth machines, but I haven't seen any mention of Aristocrat's machines. Does anybody have any experience or insights into their Slots? Is there a difference in how the "old school" stepper machines play relative to the new video based machines? Thanks to all the detailed explanations so kindly provided by mamat and Mission146, I think I have the math and calculations down, I was just wondering if these machines have any pitfalls or other quirks that make them playable or unplayable?
Minor Jackpot $1058.23 Must Pay by $1199, Major Jackpot $15,696.11 Must Pay by $15,999.
Thank you in advance for any insight you might like to share!

(First response he gets)

Quote: Nathan

A word of advice. You will have to play like $4,000-$8,000 coin in before you hit that Major.

He is not now online, but he thanked Nathan, and has not replied to any attempts at corrections. This is completely unacceptable.


Sigh. Ok, I and others have warned Nathan numerous times about doing this. It hasn't stuck. For all we know, narwhal is now sitting in front of that machine throwing hundred dollar bills into it, chasing that major, thinking he got useful advice because it came from this site. When he crashes and burns, what does he say to everybody about the advice he got here?

14 days for trolling with unsuitable misinformation about the primary purpose of this forum and website, which is to give ACCURATE MATH-BASED ADVICE on machines, table games, and other forms of gambling.

Even a disclaimer about her lack of expertise with her advice would have been suitable warning, and part of a useful discussion. But instead, she posts as if she's an expert, to a new member who doesn't know she just throws spaghetti at the wall on these things. And as a member for several years now, with a couple thousand posts, she is able to present herself to the unwary as a knowledgable member. That severely cuts into the credibility of these sites, its members, and especially the Wizard.

If anyone doesn't know this, all the questions from WizardofOdds, not just WizardofVegas, are directed here, to this forum. WizardofOdds is arguably THE authority worldwide for casino games, and the folks here who have the skills to accurately assess these things are a major (and treasured) asset.

Sorry so long a post, but I think I had to explain my decision in some detail. I will be asking the other mods to review it.

Narwhal did thank some of the discrediting posts, so I think he's safe.

Quote: CrystalMath

Narwhal did thank some of the discrediting posts, so I think he's safe.

Sometimes I wonder if new members see that someone has their very own thread dedicated to them, and think that means the persons posts must be advice well taken

BeachBumBabs, I'm not sure if your scorn is being directed to both Nathan and myself, your first sentence could be interpreted either way. I hope I haven't broken any rules already on my first post, lol!
I realized that Nathan's calculations seemed to be hopelessly optimistic, but I didn't want to start a debate with an established member of this forum on my very first post. I did thank anyone that took the time to point out the fact that Nathan's information was wrong, and I will thank them again right here.
While I appreciate all the attention my post has received, I think the original intent of my post has gotten lost in the kerfuffle. I'm a big boy, I have the bankroll to go after this progressive if and when the time is appropriate. Thanks to the valuable information and detailed analysis laid out by mamat, Mission146, and the The Wizard himself, in this forum and in other posts, I'm pretty sure I have the math and the calculations down to figure out when the optimal time is to play this or any other machine. It was not my expectation to have anybody spoon feed me the exact answers as to when to play. I would expect that people who come to these forums and ask the knowledgeable members to give them all the answers without putting in the time to learn for themselves, probably wear out their welcome fairly quickly. I don't want to be one of those. The original intent of my post was to ask whether these Aristocrat stepper machines have any idiosyncrasies or quirks that I would need to be alerted to that would change the calculus of when and if to play or not. As I mentioned in my original posts, most of the discussions on these forums seem to center around WMS Ainsworth, and Konami machines, which apparently do have different aspects that can affect the way they are played (i.e. meter rise, variance, etc.). I'm more afraid of what I don't know than what I do know.
Thanks once again for the advice already shared and any further light you might be able to shed on the topic at hand.

Quote: Narwhal

BeachBumBabs, I'm not sure if your scorn is being directed to both Nathan and myself, your first sentence could be interpreted either way. I hope I haven't broken any rules already on my first post, lol!
I realized that Nathan's calculations seemed to be hopelessly optimistic, but I didn't want to start a debate with an established member of this forum on my very first post. I did thank anyone that took the time to point out the fact that Nathan's information was wrong, and I will thank them again right here.
While I appreciate all the attention my post has received, I think the original intent of my post has gotten lost in the kerfuffle. I'm a big boy, I have the bankroll to go after this progressive if and when the time is appropriate. Thanks to the valuable information and detailed analysis laid out by mamat, Mission146, and the The Wizard himself, in this forum and in other posts, I'm pretty sure I have the math and the calculations down to figure out when the optimal time is to play this or any other machine. It was not my expectation to have anybody spoon feed me the exact answers as to when to play. I would expect that people who come to these forums and ask the knowledgeable members to give them all the answers without putting in the time to learn for themselves, probably wear out their welcome fairly quickly. I don't want to be one of those. The original intent of my post was to ask whether these Aristocrat stepper machines have any idiosyncrasies or quirks that I would need to be alerted to that would change the calculus of when and if to play or not. As I mentioned in my original posts, most of the discussions on these forums seem to center around WMS Ainsworth, and Konami machines, which apparently do have different aspects that can affect the way they are played (i.e. meter rise, variance, etc.). I'm more afraid of what I don't know than what I do know.
Thanks once again for the advice already shared and any further light you might be able to shed on the topic at hand.

Narwhal,

Sorry for any ambiguity in my reply. It was 100% NOT directed at you.

I'm glad you decided to come in and join to ask a very good question. The manufacturers, in my experience, make it intentionally difficult to evaluate a good play from a bad one, so it's good you're researching and asking others for help in evaluating a particular machine or manu line. That's exactly the intent of this free site and why questions are directed here.

We've had a recurring problem, as I detailed above, with Nathan posting bad advice. This event just happened to be the final straw for me - you are not in any way responsible for her suspension.

It's awkward, under the circumstances both of the suspension and your subsequent question about whether it was directed at you, to try and welcome you, but I do. Please consider joining in further conversations, and thanks for your understanding.

Quote: Narwhal

BeachBumBabs, I'm not sure if your scorn is being directed to both Nathan and myself, your first sentence could be interpreted either way.

You misunderstood her. She 100% wants to help. Trust me, you can trust her. :-)

Quote: Narwhal

BeachBumBabs, I'm not sure if your scorn is being directed to both Nathan and myself

Hi Narwhal and welcome to the forum. Rest assured that BeachBumBab's criticism was wholly directed at Nathan, who has been repeatedly warned about pretending to have anything helpful to contribute, in ways that are dangerously reckless. Nathan (female, by the way) is absolutely not the font of all wisdom.

Quote:

...I didn't want to start a debate with an established member of this forum...

And that is exactly why Nathan's behavior was so unacceptable. She did (frequently does) a grave disservice to this forum and it's skilled and generous members.

BeachBumBabs, absolutely no apology needed and thank you for the warm welcome to such a useful and informative community. Much appreciated!

Thank you as well OnceDear!

Quote: Narwhal

The original intent of my post was to ask whether these Aristocrat stepper machines have any idiosyncrasies or quirks that I would need to be alerted to that would change the calculus of when and if to play or not.

I have not played any of these 16Ks.
As far I as I know, they are not biased to drop late. Friends have dropped them early.

Good luck.

Thank you mamat, as one of the acknowledged experts here on progressives, I'm grateful for the response. Thank you for all the information you have shared as well!

Narwhal,

I just wanted to welcome you and thank you for the nod in your first post. It makes me feel at least somewhat useful to know that at least some people are reading stuff from people like Mamat and myself, taking it all in and learning how to figure the math. Unfortunately, I do not know anything about the specific machines you are speaking to.

Much appreciated Mission146. You've already given me and the rest of the WOV/WOO community a wealth of information!