The first thing that I want to say is nothing would surprise me coming from a Hollywood branded property, especially not when that property is a racino.
Here is what we know (from ONM's link):CHOOSE THE CHAMPS
SEPTEMBER 5, 2017 - JANUARY 2, 2018
Swipe your Marquee Rewards card at a kiosk from Tuesday-Thursday afternoon at 5:00PM each week and select the pro football teams you think will win in the upcoming Thursday-Monday games.
From 10:00AM-9:00PM each Tuesday, beginning September 12, 2017, the 5 guests with the most correct picks will win their share of Free VLT Play!
At the end of the promotional period, the top 10 overall promotion winners will win a Free VLT Play prize.
The guest with the most correct picks will win a trip for two to the Tropicana Las Vegas for a Super Bowl Watch Party!
(Copy/Pasting the information is Fair Use as it is being used for commentary purposes)
Okay, from that link there is a link to another page upon which ONM is getting his information that non Executive Producers or Icons are effectively limited to four picks per week while those two tiers receive as many as five Picks per week.
We also see that there is a weekly prize by which the five guests with the, 'Most,' correct picks will win their share of Free Play.
The first thing that concerns me is, even if this is picking against the spread, five random ATS Picks essentially have:
(.5)^5 = .03125 or a 3.125% chance of being picked perfectly.
The problem with that is that it is easy to envision a situation in which MORE THAN five people will pick perfectly and will have made five Picks. In fact, if we look at the probability as being 1 in 32, then that means, using a binomial distribution:http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html
150 such players is about the magic number at which we expect to have five or more run the table (50%+ probability) and 182 players is about where we start to expect to see six or more run the table. (50%+ probability)
Again, that's predicated upon that number of players making five picks.
When you start to look at more players than that, then it becomes even more likely that six or more players will get five picks correct. For example, if 500 players make five Picks, then the probability of six (or more) getting them all right shoots up to 0.998399393959 or 99.8399393959%.
If you talk about 1,000 players who get to make five Picks, then you're at 0.999999994479 for at least six players to have picked all five correctly.
What does that mean?
That means if 1,000 players get five picks ATS, then the Odds of a player with four Picks even having a chance to win for the week AT ALL come in at about 1 in 181,126,608.
In other words, depending on the number of players who receive five entries, yes, it does become effectively very close to impossible for other players to win.
While the Math would depend on the specific teams at play that week (implied probabilities of winning based on point spread) it becomes even less likely for a player with only four picks to even have the opportunity to defeat a player with five picks if the winner is to be picked, 'Straight Up,' assuming that the player with five picks at all rationally. (In this case, rationally would be picking the five biggest favorites since the Monday Night Football score is the tiebreaker and five wins are five wins)
Following the link, let's take a look at some other Terms:9. The Tuesday following the games (the week after guests make their picks and beginning
Tuesday, September 12, 2017), the 5 guests with the most correct picks will win Free VLT
Play. Guests with winning picks must return to the marketing kiosk each Tuesday between
10:00am and 9:00pm to claim their Free VLT Play prize. Guests who do not claim within this
time frame each Tuesday will forfeit their Free VLT Play prize, and the prize will not be
10.Weekly winners can only be claimed the Tuesday following the games from 10:00am –9:00p.m.
Therefore, we see that there is a weekly prize and it goes to the, "Five guests with the most correct Picks." Again, when you get up to 182 players making five picks, and that's ATS, you already have it more likely than not that more than five players will pick all five chosen games perfectly. While difficult to quantify, it is even more likely for players who are picking the winners straight up provided that they are picking rationally.
For that reason there is a tiebreaker, which is being closest to guessing the score of the Monday night game correctly. There is also a second tiebreaker (if two players both guess the Monday night score correctly) and that is the player who made the picks first wins.
Of course, Hollywood being Hollywood, players have an eleven hour window, on Tuesdays, to claim the weekly prize. They must appear in person to do so, and as we all know, many of them won't. In fact, a bunch of idiots won't read the Rules at all and will make picks despite the fact that they will not be there on Tuesday (even if they do win) and I'm sure that Hollywood Mahoning Valley whatever is more than happy with that arrangement. LITTLE BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT
ONM seems to think that the Overall Promotion Winner is adjudicated by number of winning Picks over the entire season, but that's not how I read it at all. From the Hollywood site:The guest with the mostly weekly wins over the 17-week promotional period will receive a
trip to the Tropicana in Las Vegas for a Super Bowl watch party.
In the event that there is more than one (1) guest in first place, the
Monday scores for each week will be reviewed and used as the tie breaker. The guest with
the most Monday score tie breaker wins will be awarded the Super Bowl Las Vegas Watch
Party prize. The guest who does not win will receive one thousand dollars ($1,000) in Free
In order to be awarded the first place prize, the guest must have participated in all
seventeen (17) weeks of the promotional period.
The first thing that I notice is that Hollywood references, "Most weekly winners," and, "Monday scores for each week to be used as the tie breaker," but nowhere does it mention overall picks record. Granted, there is a fair chance that the person who won the most, 'Weeks,' would also have the most overall wins, but that is not necessarily the case.Answer to ONM's Question
It is technically possible for a player who only gets four picks to be a Weekly Winner, thus, it is possible for such a player to win the entire thing. However, at a certain point (depending on how many entrants there are in a week with five picks) it becomes effectively impossible to win with four correct picks if there are too many players who have five picks. Because it can theoretically become effectively impossible to win even a single week, it can become effectively impossible to win the whole thing.
However, if there are not many players with five picks (or not all of them use them) it is possible for a player with only four picks to win. For example, if there are four (or fewer) participating players with five Picks for a given week, then at least one player with only four picks MUST win.
So, without knowing how many players are going to have five picks in a given week, and how many of those such players are going to play every week, it is an impossible question to answer exactly. The only generalization I can offer is that, the more players with five Picks, the more difficult it becomes...but you already knew that.Finally
Why Hollywood could not just give their top two tiers five free entries on the thing and let everyone else earn as many as five entries through play I do not understand, other than, it's Hollywood, the hell do you expect?
Vultures can't be choosers.