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Mission146
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Mission146
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September 1st, 2017 at 6:51:35 AM permalink
For this OP, I am going to copy/paste from OneNickelMiracle in the Miscellaneous Discussion Thread. The reason that I don't break this off into its own topic is because the Miscellaneous Discussion Thread is too big for a split and any attempt to load the thing such that it can be split would probably break my computer.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Can you beat someone in a pigskin picks contest if they get 5 picks and you get a maximum of 4 picks? Assuming skill level is equal. The contest doesn't even say each set of picks is separate and noncumulative, but I'm betting they have to be. It's such a huge disadvantage, and it adds up for 17 weeks. How it works, everyone gets 1 entry, Exec Producers and Icons get two additional free, then you can get up to three extra picks for 100 points each. However, these top two tiers can get a total of 5 max, everyone else gets a total of 4 max. The points have to be earned Tuesday-Thursday and you can only enter picks Tuesday-Thursday, so points earned on the weekends dont count. I can understand spotting free entries, but rigging it so it's a disadvantage, that seems wrong. The Ohio lottery rubber stamps everything, I'm not even sure if this is legal.

http://www.hollywoodmahoningvalley.com/promotions/choose-the-champs

Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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September 1st, 2017 at 7:25:52 AM permalink
The first thing that I want to say is nothing would surprise me coming from a Hollywood branded property, especially not when that property is a racino.

Here is what we know (from ONM's link):

CHOOSE THE CHAMPS

SEPTEMBER 5, 2017 - JANUARY 2, 2018

Swipe your Marquee Rewards card at a kiosk from Tuesday-Thursday afternoon at 5:00PM each week and select the pro football teams you think will win in the upcoming Thursday-Monday games.

From 10:00AM-9:00PM each Tuesday, beginning September 12, 2017, the 5 guests with the most correct picks will win their share of Free VLT Play!

At the end of the promotional period, the top 10 overall promotion winners will win a Free VLT Play prize.

The guest with the most correct picks will win a trip for two to the Tropicana Las Vegas for a Super Bowl Watch Party!


(Copy/Pasting the information is Fair Use as it is being used for commentary purposes)

Okay, from that link there is a link to another page upon which ONM is getting his information that non Executive Producers or Icons are effectively limited to four picks per week while those two tiers receive as many as five Picks per week.

We also see that there is a weekly prize by which the five guests with the, 'Most,' correct picks will win their share of Free Play.

The first thing that concerns me is, even if this is picking against the spread, five random ATS Picks essentially have:

(.5)^5 = .03125 or a 3.125% chance of being picked perfectly.

The problem with that is that it is easy to envision a situation in which MORE THAN five people will pick perfectly and will have made five Picks. In fact, if we look at the probability as being 1 in 32, then that means, using a binomial distribution:

http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html

150 such players is about the magic number at which we expect to have five or more run the table (50%+ probability) and 182 players is about where we start to expect to see six or more run the table. (50%+ probability)

Again, that's predicated upon that number of players making five picks.

When you start to look at more players than that, then it becomes even more likely that six or more players will get five picks correct. For example, if 500 players make five Picks, then the probability of six (or more) getting them all right shoots up to 0.998399393959 or 99.8399393959%.

If you talk about 1,000 players who get to make five Picks, then you're at 0.999999994479 for at least six players to have picked all five correctly.

What does that mean?

That means if 1,000 players get five picks ATS, then the Odds of a player with four Picks even having a chance to win for the week AT ALL come in at about 1 in 181,126,608.

In other words, depending on the number of players who receive five entries, yes, it does become effectively very close to impossible for other players to win.

While the Math would depend on the specific teams at play that week (implied probabilities of winning based on point spread) it becomes even less likely for a player with only four picks to even have the opportunity to defeat a player with five picks if the winner is to be picked, 'Straight Up,' assuming that the player with five picks at all rationally. (In this case, rationally would be picking the five biggest favorites since the Monday Night Football score is the tiebreaker and five wins are five wins)

Following the link, let's take a look at some other Terms:

9. The Tuesday following the games (the week after guests make their picks and beginning
Tuesday, September 12, 2017), the 5 guests with the most correct picks will win Free VLT
Play. Guests with winning picks must return to the marketing kiosk each Tuesday between
10:00am and 9:00pm to claim their Free VLT Play prize. Guests who do not claim within this
time frame each Tuesday will forfeit their Free VLT Play prize, and the prize will not be
reissued.

10.Weekly winners can only be claimed the Tuesday following the games from 10:00am 9:00p.m.


Therefore, we see that there is a weekly prize and it goes to the, "Five guests with the most correct Picks." Again, when you get up to 182 players making five picks, and that's ATS, you already have it more likely than not that more than five players will pick all five chosen games perfectly. While difficult to quantify, it is even more likely for players who are picking the winners straight up provided that they are picking rationally.

For that reason there is a tiebreaker, which is being closest to guessing the score of the Monday night game correctly. There is also a second tiebreaker (if two players both guess the Monday night score correctly) and that is the player who made the picks first wins.

Of course, Hollywood being Hollywood, players have an eleven hour window, on Tuesdays, to claim the weekly prize. They must appear in person to do so, and as we all know, many of them won't. In fact, a bunch of idiots won't read the Rules at all and will make picks despite the fact that they will not be there on Tuesday (even if they do win) and I'm sure that Hollywood Mahoning Valley whatever is more than happy with that arrangement.

LITTLE BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT

ONM seems to think that the Overall Promotion Winner is adjudicated by number of winning Picks over the entire season, but that's not how I read it at all. From the Hollywood site:

The guest with the mostly weekly wins over the 17-week promotional period will receive a
trip to the Tropicana in Las Vegas for a Super Bowl watch party.

In the event that there is more than one (1) guest in first place, the
Monday scores for each week will be reviewed and used as the tie breaker. The guest with
the most Monday score tie breaker wins will be awarded the Super Bowl Las Vegas Watch
Party prize. The guest who does not win will receive one thousand dollars ($1,000) in Free
VLT Play.

In order to be awarded the first place prize, the guest must have participated in all
seventeen (17) weeks of the promotional period.


The first thing that I notice is that Hollywood references, "Most weekly winners," and, "Monday scores for each week to be used as the tie breaker," but nowhere does it mention overall picks record. Granted, there is a fair chance that the person who won the most, 'Weeks,' would also have the most overall wins, but that is not necessarily the case.

Answer to ONM's Question

It is technically possible for a player who only gets four picks to be a Weekly Winner, thus, it is possible for such a player to win the entire thing. However, at a certain point (depending on how many entrants there are in a week with five picks) it becomes effectively impossible to win with four correct picks if there are too many players who have five picks. Because it can theoretically become effectively impossible to win even a single week, it can become effectively impossible to win the whole thing.

However, if there are not many players with five picks (or not all of them use them) it is possible for a player with only four picks to win. For example, if there are four (or fewer) participating players with five Picks for a given week, then at least one player with only four picks MUST win.

So, without knowing how many players are going to have five picks in a given week, and how many of those such players are going to play every week, it is an impossible question to answer exactly. The only generalization I can offer is that, the more players with five Picks, the more difficult it becomes...but you already knew that.

Finally

Why Hollywood could not just give their top two tiers five free entries on the thing and let everyone else earn as many as five entries through play I do not understand, other than, it's Hollywood, the hell do you expect?
Vultures can't be choosers.
DRich
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September 1st, 2017 at 7:27:19 AM permalink
I don't understand how it is rigged. Just play enough to be in the top tier with the most picks.
billryan
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September 1st, 2017 at 7:33:37 AM permalink
Before commenting, I'd have to know how easy it is to move up to those tiers.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
Mission146
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
September 1st, 2017 at 7:34:01 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I don't understand how it is rigged. Just play enough to be in the top tier with the most picks.



In a few days? What if you are a new member of the PC who joins the day before the contest?

Besides, the place is a racino slotbox dump. To call it a casino is to unnecessarily glorify it. There is no Video Poker and no Table Games. Keno/Slots/Racing only.

Even with that being the case, I see your point, but you effectively have to run $125,000 coin-in (during the six month period) in order to get up to the point where you get five picks. People who have achieved that tier had all of January 1st-June 30th to do so, so effectively, you're asking for players who have not achieved that tier to achieve the same coin-in within fewer than forty days to have an equal chance throughout the entire contest.

Perhaps not rigged, but the next closest thing.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146
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September 1st, 2017 at 7:34:30 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Before commenting, I'd have to know how easy it is to move up to those tiers.



$125,000 coin-in less whatever you have already achieved. Slots/Keno only.

EDIT: No, I take that back. I guess you could play VP/Tables, but it would have to be at a different Hollywood location. I also don't know how those games affect the coin-in requirements, if there is any effect.
Vultures can't be choosers.
billryan
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September 1st, 2017 at 7:40:02 AM permalink
No back door ways? Getting a Hollywood visa, being a Vet, no producer in a day, like in Vegas?
It does seem pretty stacked against the lowest tier, but I wouldn't call it rigged.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
Ibeatyouraces
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September 1st, 2017 at 7:40:19 AM permalink
The Marquee card is WORTHLESS!!
DRich
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September 1st, 2017 at 7:42:51 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

In a few days? What if you are a new member of the PC who joins the day before the contest?

Besides, the place is a racino slotbox dump. To call it a casino is to unnecessarily glorify it. There is no Video Poker and no Table Games. Keno/Slots/Racing only.

Even with that being the case, I see your point, but you effectively have to run $125,000 coin-in (during the six month period) in order to get up to the point where you get five picks. People who have achieved that tier had all of January 1st-June 30th to do so, so effectively, you're asking for players who have not achieved that tier to achieve the same coin-in within fewer than forty days to have an equal chance throughout the entire contest.

Perhaps not rigged, but the next closest thing.



Do they have to reach the highest tier prior to the first week? What if I achieve it in week 3? In any case 40 days should be plenty of time to run through $125k coin-in. $3000 a day doesn't sound like it would take long assuming they have multi-denom multi-line games.

I don't see anything wrong with giving people a better chance based on more play.
Mission146
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September 1st, 2017 at 7:43:55 AM permalink
Here's my point:

Most Promotions of this nature at least provide for some mechanism (other than tier status) by which an individual can put himself on an equal footing with a high tier member, or at least, they should. For example, a certain tier might start off with one-hundred bonus entries (or even a thousand) into a particular drawing, but assuming $5 coin-in earns one entry (or whatever) then all a person would have to do is run through $500 coin-in more than the high tier member, or $5,000 more in the case of a 1,000 point spot for high tiers, and the first person is now on equal footing.

It just seems unfair to me for tier status alone to be the decider in whether or not an individual effectively has a chance at a particular promotion. Might as well make it tier exclusive if it becomes effectively impossible to win. A player could have one drawing entry out of a million, but provided the draw is random, that person could conceivably win. Like I pointed out, if there were 1,000 people with five random ATS Picks, the odds of someone's four picks even theoretically coming into play are well over 1 in 100 million.

It's patently ridiculous.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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