Bankroll suggestion on G+ Deluxe "Mystery Jackpot"

Good morning everyone,

I'd like to revisit an old topic that I never quite found an answer to. I see good discussion both here and on WoO about the G+ Deluxe must-hit progressive machines ("Bier Hous" and other titles). I get the chart about when to start playing a minor jackpot based on what I estimate the house edge to be. However, what about a risk of ruin such that I can be assured not to chase a $50 minor jackpot with, let's say, $500 and lose everything?

On the RoR page at WoO, it indicates needing a bankroll of 3333X minimum bet for a 5% RoR on a game with an expected return of 100.76% and a .25% CB. Using the above calculation, it would seem that I would need 3333 spins at 40 cents each, for a total of $1,332.20 in bankroll, but it seems to me that the expected return for this sort of game is much higher than that, which should reduce my bankroll requirements.

I feel like I'm close to understanding the math, but not quite!

Any ideas?

Thanks in advance.

Hey CMPDon, welcome to the forums.

Quote: CMPDon

I'd like to revisit an old topic that I never quite found an answer to...

Or have you had another account here prior?

You didn't post enough information to do the math. We'd need to know the meter rate (how much money played does it take to move the jackpot meter in question 1 penny), what the machine is at, and what the jackpot is. After that IF you can lookup and find the actual house edge of the game that would be most helpful, otherwise you'd have to estimate it based off the state minimum (at least that's what I do to be overly safe). Then you can do your EV. If you can then find out the variance of the game, you could also do your SD's and work your way to a good RoR estimation.

Quote: Romes

Hey CMPDon, welcome to the forums.

Thank you Romes! Yes, I am new but tried searching this site and others before posting the question.

I'm referencing the chart on this Wizard of Odds page:
/games/slots/mystery-jackpot/

And the risk of ruin page here:
/games/video-poker/appendix/1/

And I think the discussion from 2013 on this site that predated the Wizard of Odds post:
/forum/gambling/slots/13748-mystery-progressives/

Assuming the meter rate of 0.00582 posted in the first link, there is already a chart listing a target playing point of $48.50 (minor jackpot must hit at or before $50) with a 14% vig. But what I don't want to do is get stuck in a negative variance and run out of bankroll before I hit.

It seems like most of the hard math has already been done, I just couldn't find the bankroll requirements.

Thanks for your time. Also, I've enjoyed your appearances on the Gambling with an Edge podcast.
--Don

Well, shy of math and more so on experience I can tell you that for a $50 progressive that's at $48.50 and an 'average' meter move you're fine with a few hundred bucks for the most part. If you're playing max coin to get to the jackpot as fast as possible then that will up your variance and you could end up needing $500-$1000 in a "worst case scenario" type situation. You could lower your variance by playing not max coin, but it will certainly take you much longer. So it depends on your trade offs and what you're willing to do. Sorry - things have been crazy at work today so unfortunately that's my lazy answer without jumping in to the math =P.

Assume the meter is going to the max and your return will be 70%.. That should give you a reasonable on hand bankroll required for the play. So $960 for a $484/500 with a .5% meter.

Of course, meters that move on win rather than coin in will be more volatile. I'd assume 50% return for those.

Thank you for squeezing in time for this, sir!

You can't bet the minimum the entire time if you don't want to be playing 16 hours either. That's the stupidest thing I've seen people do is waste time when some double minimum bets can cut the time out. That's one caveat to bring up, sometimes the machines break down, though rare, and you wont know when it'll be fixed. Mostly it's when the bill acceptor is full and the casino doesn't care to do it right away.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

You can't bet the minimum the entire time if you don't want to be playing 16 hours either. That's the stupidest thing I've seen people do is waste time when some double minimum bets can cut the time out. That's one caveat to bring up, sometimes the machines break down, though rare, and you wont know when it'll be fixed. Mostly it's when the bill acceptor is full and the casino doesn't care to do it right away.

Everyone knows you should martingale must hits.

On some G+ 500/50, the minimum bet is $0.01.

Anecdotally,
For $50 minor, extremely bad luck may cost $800-1,200+.
For $500 major, bad luck could cost $2,000-4,000.

I recommend bankroll of 20x maximum loss ($25K for minors, $80K for majors). ...for RoR below 1%.
Most APs play with bankrolls WAY BELOW my recommended amounts, so they go broke a lot.

Blue, orange, and black box (color of the box around the progressives) G+ tend to have different meters. Black are often the worst.
Beware start points on the majors. Most start at $250, but some black box ones start at $350.
There are many meter variations within each color. Often the major and minor have the same meters, but many black ones are harder on the major.

Good luck.

Quote: mamat

On some G+ 500/50, the minimum bet is $0.01.

Anecdotally,
For $50 minor, extremely bad luck may cost $800-1,200+.
For $500 major, bad luck could cost $2,000-4,000.
...

Thanks, mamat, for the insight! As these figures would vary with different play points, do you mind sharing the ones you use? I realize it depends on meter rise. Could you give an example? Feel free to PM if you prefer. Thanks again!

Quote: camapl

Thanks, mamat, for the insight! As these figures would vary with different play points, do you mind sharing the ones you use? I realize it depends on meter rise. Could you give an example? Feel free to PM if you prefer. Thanks again!

I don't use "play points", since I play at different points for different reasons.

At MOST CASINOS: You almost never find G+ machines at good levels. The overall EV is lower than $100/month, and maybe lower than $100/yr.
But there are some casinos where G+ is good (<5% IMO). It helps if a casino is exceptionally loose, has tons of machines and s strong player base, has $5,000-50,000 high denomination G+, or has few/no local APs/heavy-chasers.

Two people I know have written their own apps to calculate this stuff on-the-fly in the casino (7 inputs are return, major start-end-meter, minor start-end-meter. Outputs are EV of game, expected coin-in, overall return, etc...)
I just do it in my head...or use the calculator on my phone (haven't downloaded a spreadsheet for the phone).
I like to do extended calculations on a laptop spreadsheet with a big screen.

For an casino with unknown settings, I might do some calculations for a variety of settings (87%, 88%, 89%) or (83%, 84%, 85%), and use them as starting points for on-the-fly calculations.

--------------
1) What is the expected overall return of the game?
a) A penny game might be 83% at one casino, and 93% at another. For example, Harrahs often sets 84-86% on penny slots, and many Indian casinos use 88-89%. Las Vegas off-strip is usually looser than Las Vegas strip. Local gossip on "loose casinos" and "tight casinos" might lead me to +/- 1% my estimates before I've actually seen some machine settings. Ideally, I've seen settings on some G+ machines at the casino. Not as good, I've seen settings on some 1c games.
b) I think G+ also has $0.05, $0.10, $0.25, $1, $2, and $5 games, which usually have higher returns than pennies.

2) What is my goal?
a) Play for fun. Just won $1,000, and want to gamble $100.
b) Play a game at 110% edge.
c) Play a game at 98-102% because I want points to show action at a casino, and I can't find anything better.
d) I'm ahead today/this-week/this-month, and willing to play 102%.
e) I'm losing today/this-week/this-month, and want to play 120% or higher.
f) I have competitors, and I want to confuse them. Willing to take a small loss. Or may pass up a 105% machine when they are watching me...and let them have it.
g) Sexy lady on slot machine next to G+ Machine, and I want to start a conversation.
h) 12x pt day.
i) etc...

3) In casinos I visit often, I usually have an idea how many different G+ meters they have in the casino (could all be the same), and a rough idea of break-even points (just cash, or cash & points & back-end FP/benefits) and 105%, 110% points.

For example, if cash-only break-even is 47.00 at casino X (for a $50 minor)...48 will be worth $13...49 will be worth $26. Calculating the coin-in, allows me to estimate my edge. Then I can decide if I feel like playing. Usually I don't calculate the edge exactly, I just wing it.

Wow, thanks again! So much more than I hoped for... I intentionally refrained from quoting, just in case.

I understand the different reasons, especially "g)"! So, is the bankroll factor in your prior post something that you use to cover the worst case situations (bad run and long meter) on the worst machine settings when you play "early"? I assume it is designed to cover one for multiple plays (or lifetime?) rather than just "the next one."

I really wish I knew how one would see what you see! I'm talking specific info about a particular machine and/or other, like machines in a particular casino.

I get that with volume and good memory, it makes sense to do the calculations in your head. If you do decide that you could make use of a spreadsheet on your phone, Google Sheets is a free app (at least on iPhone), and it gives you access to any spreadsheets you have on Google Docs/Drive (whatever they call it now). Thus, you could create on and load from your computer and have access on your phone without using space (only memory) on either device. All you need is a Gmail account or a Google login.

Disclaimer1: I am not affiliated with Google.
Disclaimer2: Beware of legal limitations in your jurisdiction while using your phone in this manner within a casino.

Thanks again, mamat!

Quote: camapl

I get that with volume and good memory, it makes sense to do the calculations in your head. If you do decide that you could make use of a spreadsheet on your phone...

I have a lousy memory. I play maybe one G+ per month. It's not a factor in my profits, but it's fun to play different games. I enjoy doing math in my head...like lifting weights at the gym (but for the mind).

I don't want a spreadsheet or app which the casino can see on camera.
Someone would have to be good at math to follow a bunch of calculator button presses - you'd have to watch a video, rather than look at a still-shot of a spreadsheet/app.

APs have been banned for what casinos have seen on their phones.
One guy angles his phone so the cameras can't see, but I think that looks too fishy.