slot machine risk of ruin

I play regular nonprogressive slots exclusively and would like to know how many betting units are required for a 10%, 5%, and 1% risk of ruin, respectively, for 4hrs of play. My rate of play is on the fast side. I usually take about $3000 to the casino, but would like my bankroll to more closely resemble that of the professional players. I usually play the 2-coin $1machines, and I would like to do better. I've estimated that 1500 betting units would give about a 10% risk of ruin. I know that this is quite difficult to predict for slot play, and would be highly theoretical, but I would greatly appreciate some answers on this, maybe even with computer simulation. Thanks a bunch.

Following up on my previous post, and hoping to generate some discussion, I personally just have a feel that if 1500 betting units = 10%, then for 1% risk of ruin, you'd need 15,000 betting units, which works out to 10 x $3000= $30,000. I'm thinking for 5%, you'd need, let's say, $10,000. I don't have a computer simulator, and would appreciate it if someone has access to one for more accurate numbers. Now, mind you, I wouldn't ever plan on actually needing to play anything close to this in real life casino play, but it would be a great psychological comfort to know that I have some mathematical backup. The 1500 betting units number was inspired from a post on Michael Bluejay's site years ago. It just so happened I was already using the $3000 bankroll figure for myself. Keeping I mind the extreme volatility of slots, however, I break even now playing much less (approximately $1500) and think I have been underbankrolled. That is why I hope to eventually work up to a "professional" like bankroll while playing slots.

The major problem with estimating is it's quite machine dependent and if you want results with reasonable accuracy, a PAR sheet for the machine you're playing is needed.

The next time you play begin tracking how many spins, and write down the amount of each winning spin. With that information we will be able to give you a reasonable estimation.

Thanks for responding. I know its quite hard to come up with any hard numbers. I usually seek out the 2-coin $1 Double Diamond, Double Dollar type machines at max coin. I also know a lot of judgement is needed with strict loss limits when the machine is in negative variance.

Thanks DRich. At max coin, that works out to $2 per spin, and I usually put in a $100 bill, which gives me 50 spins. If I can win 20% on that $100, I'm satisfied. If I, by chance, hit something bigger, I try to parlay it up.

Quote: SlotMaster

Thanks DRich. At max coin, that works out to $2 per spin, and I usually put in a $100 bill, which gives me 50 spins. If I can win 20% on that $100, I'm satisfied. If I, by chance, hit something bigger, I try to parlay it up.

Sorry, i guess i misunderstood. I thought you played 4 hours or $3,000. Playing $100 would not give enough data.

Yeah DRich. I guess its the difference in actual practice and theory. The $100 per machine is what I actually play now. I'd like to know the theorectical answer or 'best guess' for playing to get the 10%, 5%, and 1% risk of ruin. I realize we can't ever be totally exact, and must make some assumptions. Thanks

Quote: SlotMaster

I play regular nonprogressive slots exclusively and would like to know how many betting units are required for a 10%, 5%, and 1% risk of ruin, respectively, for 4hrs of play. My rate of play is on the fast side.

need more info. How many spins (plays) in 4 hours?
60 per hour? 600 per hour?? 6000 per hour???

I play slots very slow.
How slow?
I need a number to work with.

and the pay table is also important to know 2.
I have seen a slot machine that pays $100 or nothing...
and people play it!

risk of ruin without any maximum # trials is of course
1
in other words
keep playing slots (high house edge) and just a matter of time
that all bankroll is gone. (or not enough to play max bet)

most do not believe that
have fun
Sally

Thanks Sally. My present rate of play is about 20 spins/min. I know this is too fast, and sometimes it is less, but that's around average. What really keeps me in check is my tight lost limits and win goals.

Quote: SlotMaster

What really keeps me in check is my tight lost limits and win goals.

That's good but hope you know that won't help you win money.
It will only help you lose less on the long run. Not because it's some magical system or anything. You just end up playing less so you lose less.

RoR will depend on the game.
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(A) Some games have fewer big wins, but more smaller wins, and keep you playing long
(B) Others have long zero-streaks, but some kick-butt spins
Each of these styles appeal to different people.

Sometimes when I've won a lot that day, and just want to play for fun (or to generate camouflage, or "Theo" action), I will play a type A game.

But if I want to gamble $100 really quick & have a chance to get $1,000, I might play a type B game.
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Games at 85% play very different than 97%.
The exact same game at two different casinos may have a very different play style.

$1 Double Diamond, Double Dollar ... try to find the avg setting for $1 at your local casino (if it is published).
Will probably be between 88% & 97%.

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In summary, without other information about (a) overall return of game (b) variance of the game
...it's hard to make a good estimate about RoR.

You can get good information from regular players who play a certain game a LOT.
They can tell you how long $1,000 usually lasts. How often they make $5,000. How often they lose...
Size of losing streaks before a winning streak.

Quote: DRich

The next time you play begin tracking how many spins, and write down the amount of each winning spin. With that information we will be able to give you a reasonable estimation.

I second this. Writing down your wins is a great idea. I have heard that some people document all winning spins in a note pad, even the ones that are less than the bet and do checks and balances against the completely losing spins. That is smart.

Wow mamat! What great information. I will certainly start trying to incorporate some if it! Thanks

Thanks Nathan. I will begin scrutinizing my winning and losing spins more closely. Great info.

Thanks AxelWolf. Great info. I did realize it doesn't change the vigorish or volatility of the machine, just hope to hang around long enough for "lady luck" to pay me a visit!

Quote: Nathan

I second this. Writing down your wins is a great idea. I have heard that some people document all winning spins in a note pad, even the ones that are less than the bet and do checks and balances against the completely losing spins. That is smart.

I totally agree with this. I am also one of the few who often list down my winning spins in a spreadsheet file. If you're serious enough to document your winnings and losses then it is a in my opinion.

Quote: SlotMaster

Thanks Sally. My present rate of play is about 20 spins/min. I know this is too fast, and sometimes it is less, but that's around average. What really keeps me in check is my tight lost limits and win goals.

20 spins a minute? You stopping the reels early and/or skipping winning count ups? Unless there is an edge on your machines, I'd slow down and enjoy the game a bit...

Thanks tringlomane. Yes, I figure I can get this down to 10 spins/min with pausing, slowing down techniques; and like I said, I do play slower sometimes. I'm just trying to offer some figures so we can set up a theoretical simulation.