What would you have done?

So I've got a question for everyone. Please respond to the poll based on my situation described below and vote on what you would have done.

I was down about $3,300 for the weekend in Laughlin a few days ago. I decided to play quarter Super Times Pay Deuces Wild Video Poker to make my last $200 last longer. 3 hands at a time, 18 credits ($4.50 per play).

I get dealt a 2s Ah Kh Qh Jh. Royal flush on the deal. A royal with a deuce pays $25, per line or $75 total. I'm down to $125 left to play when I get it.

The choice is now take the $75, which gets me back up to $200 in pocket and keep playing hoping for a multiplier hand with quads or better.

Feel good about having $200 out of my $3500 left and run away.

Discard the 2 and go for the real money. $1000 if any of the 3 hit the Royal.

If I hit a Royal, I would definitely leave with the $1,000 and take a $2,500 weekend loss.

I decided that at this point, $75 wasn't going to do me any good. I went for the Royal and got one flush out of the 3 hands. 15 credits.

Bad weekend. Maybe a bad choice. But if I had to do it all over again today, I'd make the same decision.


ZCore13

Not really sure why I'm blanking right now (perhaps because I've been getting slammed at work) but I think you're "supposed" to keep the wild royal with only 1 wild dealt. That said, in your situation being down it's hard to pass up the opportunity (times 3) to draw at 4 to the royal. 1/47 chance on each hand... 3/47 chance at 1k (plus whatever the other 2 hands draw), or a guaranteed $75. After a long weekend I'd probably have gone for the royal too, to be honest =P.

Quote: Zcore13

So I've got a question for everyone. Please respond to the poll based on my situation described below and vote on what you would have done.

I was down about $3,300 for the weekend in Laughlin a few days ago. I decided to play quarter Super Times Pay Deuces Wild Video Poker to make my last $200 last longer. 3 hands at a time, 18 credits ($4.50 per play).

I get dealt a 2s Ah Kh Qh Jh. Royal flush on the deal. A royal with a deuce pays $25, per line or $75 total. I'm down to $125 left to play when I get it.

The choice is now take the $75, which gets me back up to $200 in pocket and keep playing hoping for a multiplier hand with quads or better.

Feel good about having $200 out of my $3500 left and run away.

Discard the 2 and go for the real money. $1000 if any of the 3 hit the Royal.

If I hit a Royal, I would definitely leave with the $1,000 and take a $2,500 weekend loss.

I decided that at this point, $75 wasn't going to do me any good. I went for the Royal and got one flush out of the 3 hands. 15 credits.

Bad weekend. Maybe a bad choice. But if I had to do it all over again today, I'd make the same decision.


ZCore13

Had you blanked the draw would you be telling us about it?

What paytable was it?

If you're an AP, then you should feel bad that you gave into the temptation.

If you're not an AP, I'm assuming you're probably playing a - EV game. What's the difference really? Because it seems as if people have a gambling budget and they will lose a specific amount either way.
By not playing properly you're probably just cutting down the time you're able to spend in the casinos.

Quote: AxelWolf

Had you blanked the draw would you be telling us about it?

What paytable was it?

If you're an AP, then you should feel bad that you gave into the temptation.

If you're not an AP, I'm assuming you're probably playing a - EV game. What's the difference really? Because it seems as if people have a gambling budget and they will lose a specific amount either way.
By not playing properly you're probably just cutting down the time you're able to spend in the casinos.

No AP. Just playing for fun. Lots of free alcohol. Most of the $3,500 was on slots. Some on table games. a couple hundred in poker. Couldn't win at anything. But it's just entertainment money.

I did blank on the draw. One flush paying $3.75 is a blank to me. Had I hit a Royal on one or more, I probably would have still posted this. I just would have withheld what actually happened until everyone responded. :) I do have over 2,200 (edited to correct amount) posts, many of which give information about myself. I'm not afraid to share what I do on or off duty. :)


ZCore13

I'm holding the wild royal. Was dealt one just like this Saturday on a one liner. Was a no brainier.

If you are an ap you keep the Royal- if playing for fun you go for it , huge difference between the two- but
If you are going to continue to keep playing for a living then keeping the Royal draw will cost you a lot in the long run

I'd actually go for the natural royal.
Little difference being down $3,100 or down in the high $2,000's.
Big difference nailing the natural royal, the joy that would have come from that - priceless, worth the shot. Would have never forgiven myself if I hadn't tried. No regrets kind of thing.

This might be a Singer Special Play. Another reason to keep the wild royal!

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This might be a Singer Special Play. Another reason to keep the wild royal!

Haha

But with the Wild Royal only paying 100 quarters and not 125, going for it isn't too big of a mistake (roughly $3.75 I think for 3 line quarters). And the hit of $1k probably does make a lot of people happier than a guaranteed $75.

Gave up about $4.24 in EV by going for the natural RF over holding the wild RF.


What would I have done? I'da held the deuce only -- how else you gonna hit 4 deuces if you don't even try?

47 cards left, a little more than 6% chance of hitting the natural, plus the other deuces and straights and flushes, I will say is probably an even game.

Quote: Paigowdan

I'd actually go for the natural royal.
Little difference being down $3,100 or down in the high $2,000's.
Big difference nailing the natural royal, the joy that would have come from that - priceless, worth the shot. Would have never forgiven myself if I hadn't tried. No regrets kind of thing.

You both work the other side so it's understandable that you both have the same style of play. It's why the casinos actually hold 2%-5% extra on VP.

Even people who know better play wrong.

There's locations that still have full pay VP after many years I don't think they are loss leaders at places like Skyline they probably do well.

Advantage Players everywhere ♥♥♥♥ and thank you guy's.

Quote: AxelWolf

You both work the other side so it's understandable that you both have the same style of play. It's why the casinos actually hold 2%-5% extra on VP.

Even people who know better play wrong.

There's locations that still have full pay VP after many years I don't think they are loss leaders at places like Skyline they probably do well.

Advantage Players everywhere ♥♥♥♥ and thank you guy's.

That's pretty offensive. What I do has nothing to do with my decision. I told you why I did it. I wanted to get back some of my money. $75 meant nothing to me at that point.

Not everyone is an AP. Actually, propably about 1/10th of 1/10th of a percent of gamblers are. It's entertainment for me. I don't smoke, I don't drink (except at casino), I don't do drugs and I don't have any expensive hobbies. A couple times a year I go to Las Vegas or Laughlin to have fun. A couple hundred on a show, some nice food and an unlikely chance of hitting a slot jackpot, Royal Flush or a Table Game progressive.

Try and look past your choice of careers and see there's a different world than yours out there.

ZCore13

I do not play a lot of deuces and when I do I avoid the machines that pay 100 coins for the wild Royal like the plague.

As mentioned, you aren't giving that much up over 47 iterations instead of getting 4700 coins you get

4000
Plus 300 for the other 2s
Plus 30 for the other tens
Plus 135 for the other dueces.

Normally I would keep the sure thing but I can't say I would do it without fail. I have occasionally go on for like quad 3s at DDB giving up a 45 coin full house. I rarely do that but sometimes I do give into the frustration

Quote: AxelWolf

You both work the other side so it's understandable that you both have the same style of play. It's why the casinos actually hold 2%-5% extra on VP.

Even people who know better play wrong.

There's locations that still have full pay VP after many years I don't think they are loss leaders at places like Skyline they probably do well.

Advantage Players everywhere ♥♥♥♥ and thank you guy's.

Actually,
1. I'm a proponent of game protection in game design - a new game, no matter how fun, should have all AP issues addressed in its design (single deck, one round per shuffle versus 6-deck shoe dealt, or not dealing out board cards or dealer cards until needed to prevent hole carding or edge-sorting, etc..) a lot to it. I believe in this more than in backoffs for the issue. You should thank the knuckleheads in the pit first, not me or Zcore.
2. Not to worry - Detective Bookman is on the case....

Quote: Paigowdan

Actually,
1. I'm a proponent of game protection in game design - a new game, no matter how fun, should have all AP issues addressed in its design (single deck, one round per shuffle versus 6-deck shoe dealt, or not dealing out board cards or dealer cards until needed to prevent hole carding or edge-sorting, etc..) a lot to it. I believe in this more than in backoffs for the issue. You should thank the knuckleheads in the pit first, not me or Zcore.
2. Not to worry - Detective Bookman is on the case....

But axel has a point. I play a 97% game which sucks and I made a wrong decission 2 weeks ago. Had a wild royal with 3 2s. I thought the right move was drop the royal and go for the 2s. I am a person with the tools to make the right decision and I still screwed up. I can just imagine how much true ploppies give up and don't have a clue. As they say, the resorts weren't built on winning players.

Eta: I call BS on the 2 that voted they would take the 200 and leave. No one here is ACTUALLY going to do that. If that were the case they wouldn't have put their last 200 in the machine.

Quote: GWAE

Quote: Paigowdan

Actually,
1. I'm a proponent of game protection in game design - a new game, no matter how fun, should have all AP issues addressed in its design (single deck, one round per shuffle versus 6-deck shoe dealt, or not dealing out board cards or dealer cards until needed to prevent hole carding or edge-sorting, etc..) a lot to it. I believe in this more than in backoffs for the issue. You should thank the knuckleheads in the pit first, not me or Zcore.
2. Not to worry - Detective Bookman is on the case....

But axel has a point. I play a 97% game which sucks and I made a wrong decission 2 weeks ago. Had a wild royal with 3 2s. I thought the right move was drop the royal and go for the 2s. I am a person with the tools to make the right decision and I still screwed up. I can just imagine how much true ploppies give up and don't have a clue. As they say, the resorts weren't built on winning players.

Eta: I call BS on the 2 that voted they would take the 200 and leave. No one here is ACTUALLY going to do that. If that were the case they wouldn't have put their last 200 in the machine.

I Voted make the proper hold and leave because it's the correct thing to do. Especially if It means losing everything and having to go to the ATM for spending money. Playing less on -EV is never a bad idea.

I didn't think of it as if I was in an emotional state and had just lost most of my trip BR or as if I was in a entertainment situation. I purely voted for the best EV. I can't say what I would actually do other than make the correct hold. Yes he went for it and got a RF, however had he just kept it and used that guaranteed money to continue he may have gotten a dealt RF 30 minutes later.

I have played my fair share of -EV games, however I don't have a entertainment BR and wouldn't spend hours playing -EV.

Yeah that makes sense. Damn you APs always think AP like.

Quote: GWAE

Eta: I call BS on the 2 that voted they would take the 200 and leave. No one here is ACTUALLY going to do that. If that were the case they wouldn't have put their last 200 in the machine.

Make it three that voted that way now. In my case it is purely hold the best EV cards. At that point I realize I am playing a game that only pays 100 instead of 125 for the wild royal. Oops, I get up and walk away.

Quote: DRich

Make it three that voted that way now. In my case it is purely hold the best EV cards. At that point I realize I am playing a game that only pays 100 instead of 125 for the wild royal. Oops, I get up and walk away.

Sucker move -- you forgot to cash out your ticket, left $200 in the machine. When you return 15 seconds later, the money's gone -- even though it's 3:30 in the morning and not a soul in sight. :)

Quote: GWAE

Yeah that makes sense. Damn you APs always think AP like.

THAT'S HIGHLY OFFENSIVE. Oh wait, no it's not.

Zcore and Dan i wasn't meaning it in offensive way, it's just what I have noticed this from a majority of casino staff and gaming industry people whose primary(or any) source of income isn't from AP. Even the ones who know better. There's nothing wrong with it. I'm sure you guys make a well above average living and it's meaningless in the grand scheme of things. I don't really know any AP that doesn't do some form of occasionally -EV gambling could be sports seems to be the big one, craps 2nd, lottery, 9/6 without anything extras, a favorite fun slot etc. As long as they do 99% more +EV gambling they will be fine. If it makes them happy it's their money and their right.

Many moons ago I remember a few times where I purposely dropped a pat straight to go for a open ended straight flush. Horrible play in the long run, however I was rewarded. I've also play crappie Video Blackjack at the bar while socialising instead of VP more than I should.

Quote: RS

Sucker move -- you forgot to cash out your ticket, left $200 in the machine. When you return 15 seconds later, the money's gone -- even though it's 3:30 in the morning and not a soul in sight. :)

Holy crap!! That must be why my results were so bad last year. I will have to add that to my checklist.

With respect to the OP, I can certainly understand why someone who is not an AP would make that decision. Moreover, while the decision itself is certainly mathematically wrong, whether or not the decision is correct, on a purely personal level, is something that I would look at on an individual basis.

Score's trip was coming to an end, and he had perhaps the best opportunity he was going to get to recoup his losses. Furthermore, we also know that ZCore was not playing in a way that would result in the greatest likelihood of recouping said losses given that he was not utilizing a, 'Bold Play,' strategy. As a result, I must conclude that he was playing for fun and was presented with an opportunity that, it can be argued, he didn't necessarily expect to happen. That it came with a WRF is actually slightly unfortunate for ZCore because now he has the Four-to-a-Royal, (which is what he really wanted) but now must knowingly make a bad play in order to use that Four-to-a-Royal draw.

Much like playing any negative expectation game, which I would suggest almost all AP's do from time-to-time, ZCore was put into a position where he had to forfeit a small sum of Expected Value in order to make the play that would satisfy him. Assuming that he would not make such play all the time, ZCore can simply look at the difference in the EV of one play v. another and decide whether going for that Natural Royal is worth that sum of money to him. If he does indeed find it worth that sum of money, then he should go for that play though it not be mathematically Optimal. He gets more utility from going for the Natural.

Again, I compare it to an AP playing any -EV game for entertainment rather than as some sort of cover play. I would suggest that any AP that has made a -EV play (whereas not playing at all has an EV of 0) is being hypocritical to suggest that ZCore did something wrong by going for that draw...not that anyone expressly has made such a suggestion. He considered the consequences of his decision and made a play with less EV than keeping the WRF, the same reduction in EV (in the long run) that an AP perhaps makes over many trials of making a Pass Line bet at Craps, just for one example.