Progressives- min bet or max lines?

$1 ten line, five reel machine.
$10k must hit progressive.
Its at $9750.

Its a bonus type game where u get 3 bonus symbols, u get 10 free games.

Play $1 and just 1 line?
Or play $10 for 10lines? (I'm assuming this is the right answer?)
Or play $5 per line x 10lines = $50 per spin?

And how much should I bring? $10k?

You need to know the meter movement. How much coin in to make it move 1 penny. I'd wait till it got higher.

What's it start at?

You can bring as much money as you're comfortable losing. If you're talking about how much do you need to give yourself a 3 sd cushion to win it, it depends on your bet size. But I'd say 75k minimum without knowing the machine specifics. Your expected loss alone will be into the tens of thousands even including the progressive win.

Oh the beauty of the new must hits.
So So tricky..It looks juicy and even tricks people who are value players and looking for advantage plays.

They have busted and disgusted many of aspiring AP's.

Depending on your view that's somtimes a good thing.

The original linked must hits were very good.

At the level id bring 25k minimum but not sure why you would want to even play it.

Most likely started at 9k. If it started at 9500 it's even worse if a play - no way it started at 1k or 5k

Quote: AxelWolf

What's it start at?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You need to know the meter movement. How much coin in to make it move 1 penny. I'd wait till it got higher.

It looks like $20 coin-in moves it by .03.

And it starts at $9k

so guaranteed to be less than $166,667 coin in

Just checking... it's not a buy-a-pay game, where if you're not playing max bet you're not eligible for certain patterns?

Not even close to playable

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Not even close to playable

So at what point will it be +ev?
And how did u figure that out?

I'll give it a shot.. you want to find the point where the maximum amount you have to put in to win the jackpot is less than the actual jackpot.

So I think the break even point is....

20 x (10000-x)/.03 = x

if you solve for x, I get $9985.03

If the progressive is part of a bank of machines, how does this change the equation? Would they be consider unplayable?

Quote: zoobrew

If the progressive is part of a bank of machines, how does this change the equation? Would they be consider unplayable?

If it's part of a bank, I don't think that changes the equation.... the breakeven point would be the same, it's just that you risk not being the one who wins it.

Quote: rsactuary

I'll give it a shot.. you want to find the point where the maximum amount you have to put in to win the jackpot is less than the actual jackpot.

So I think the break even point is....

20 x (10000-x)/.03 = x

if you solve for x, I get $9985.03

That's not correct and you might never find one to play. You're assuming both that you will have to push it all the way (An assumption I sometimes do use, situation depending), but your problematic assumption is that every spin could reasonably return 0%. That's very close to impossible.

The minor on this machine is a must hit $500.
Starts at 350.
Every 10 coin-in = .04

How much to be +ev on the minor?

Quote: 100xOdds

The minor on this machine is a must hit $500.
Starts at 350.
Every 10 coin-in = .04

How much to be +ev on the minor?

What's the return on the game?

Quote: 100xOdds

$1 ten line, five reel machine.
$10k must hit progressive.
Its at $9750.

Its a bonus type game where u get 3 bonus symbols, u get 10 free games.

Play $1 and just 1 line?
Or play $10 for 10lines? (I'm assuming this is the right answer?)
Or play $5 per line x 10lines = $50 per spin?

And how much should I bring? $10k?

You better not be taking my machine down before I get back up there 100x :P

Quote: 100xOdds

It looks like $20 coin-in moves it by .03.

And it starts at $9k

Does it have a lightning symbol on it?

Its a $7.50/2.50 meter rate for both progressives.

Is its location in, on, or around a body of water smack dab near the center of the US? If so, its got 68.x% payback without the progressive payouts considered, so you'll need to account for 32% hold prior to the payout. Start getting curious with it near $9.980, but don't consider it a "must" to get on until you reach the final stretch in the 90's. I've never been beaten by one after $9.99x, but I've won as little as $95 after taxes before, not accounting for tier benefits, slotplay, multiplier days, etc.

Quote: 100xOdds

So at what point will it be +ev?
And how did u figure that out?

The point of +EV is simple, take the Meter rate (7.50) and divide that by the maximum payout value (10,000) and that gives us 1,333.33 or roughly 1,333 cents of movement, or 9986.67. Then, however, you have to account for a jackpot of massive proportions in which taxes will be taken out, which is why my target is generally 9996.xx on that machine, though I've started them as early as 9991.xx

In my Local, you can get the Progressives by playing just a penny.

Quote: Exoter175

The point of +EV is simple, take the Meter rate (7.50) and divide that by the maximum payout value (10,000) and that gives us 1,333.33 or roughly 1,333 cents of movement, or 9986.67. Then, however, you have to account for a jackpot of massive proportions in which taxes will be taken out, which is why my target is generally 9996.xx on that machine, though I've started them as early as 9991.xx

using the same math on the minor ($500):
500/2.5 = 200
so the breakeven for the minor is $498?


if so then why was I told in those Must Hit Zeus games that the breakeven for the $50 minor is $49?
and the breakeven for the $500 major is $490?

500/7.5 = 66.6666
so breakeven is 500-.67 = 499.33?!

50/2.5 = 20
so breakeven is 49.80?!

Quote: Kentry

In my Local, you can get the Progressives by playing just a penny.

Unfortunately, in a lot of places, it'll take anywhere from 125-1500 spins just to move the meter one cent if you bet just "one" penny.

What most people DO NOT KNOW is that you cannot drop a progressive with a static meter rate, without it having moved to the next one cent value.

IE, if you're on a WMS progressive with Pay By 250-500 and 25-50 (lions, unicorns, etc., not the reel boosters or newer ruby star type games and 6x4's) you'll move that progressive essentially .01 for every 1.66 you win. If you're betting a single penny, that could take forevvvvvvvverrrrrrrrrr and end up costing you quite a bit more money than you would have otherwise had to have spent.

In a game like China Shores-Quick Strike, the turnaround is a little different but the premise is the same. If you just moved it .01, and you are betting .01, in most cases it'll take you 350-450 spins to move it .01 again and qualify you for a shot at the progressive. It is impossible to hit the progressive "mid way" through the spins between .01 and the next .01. Though the verbage says "random" it is not truly random. The progressive # is determined the split second the previous # hit, and will drop ONLY when that number is reached, not before or after, so if you're .01 from dropping it on a $4 meter rate, and you're betting .01, it'll take you 400 spins to hit it, and so forth.

In other words, I would never advise betting .01 on any of these games, and would (at minimum) suggest betting the full lines by whatever bet multiplier you favor.

Quote: 100xOdds

using the same math on the minor ($500):
500/2.5 = 200
so the breakeven for the minor is $498?


if so then why was I told in those Must Hit Zeus games that the breakeven for the $50 minor is $49?
and the breakeven for the $500 major is $490?

500/7.5 = 66.6666
so breakeven is 500-.67 = 499.33?!

50/2.5 = 20
so breakeven is 49.80?!

Well, which zeus game are we referring to? And what meter rate?

If we're talking the "Great Zeus" machine with a $4 meter rate (what most people don't know is that these meter rates are configurable and can change from place to place) then the "breakeven" for that game would be pretty high, like 49.88ish.

However, that's accounting for all possible outcomes, like not "ever" winning a single spin prior to the jackpot awarding itself.

Generally, most of us apply a 30% hold to a game when we try to deduce the "breakeven". Though a game is supposed to pay 80-99% back, the reality is that most of these penny progressives with "must hits" pay about 57-65% back outside of their bonus rounds (which account for about 18-28% of their payback) and the progressive picks up the remainder "most of the time". So when we look at a $4 meter rate great zeus at $48.00, we assume it has to go 200 cents at $4 a pop, so that's $800 in action. At a 30% hold, that's $240 dollars in to win $50 if it caps out on us, and a total loss of $190. If we bump that number up a bit more to 20%, we're looking at $160, with a total loss of $110 if it caps out. Those are, however, some bad examples to go by , and truthfully, some of the worst games to play for an "advantage", simply because the meter rate is so large.

There's a few games out there that I wont' mention that have $.80 meter rates, that we routinely take around the $470 mark and just pound through, and on these specific games, the hold is much closer to 15-20% over the course of action based on how we "play" the game, prior to its payout. There are also some out there that we avoid like the plague, like the "quick strike quads" game, that without doing the "realm" math on, would need to be something like 499.85ish to be at a breakeven on.

Some games with "must hit" progressives truly boil down to nothing more than a gamble. Just remember, the larger the meter rate or the more you have to bet per spin, the larger the risk and greater the volatility.

The Mini base on those penny progressives I am talking about is $10, the Minor base is $42, the Major base is $200, and the Grand is $2,000. The fact that it is very possible to get the $2,000 on just a penny is extremely good.

2 weeks ago I took a must hit minor for $20. It was at 19.74. Figured at $4 a penny movement and 15% hold, it would cost me $15 and free roll for the larger ones. The bastard machine took me to 19.99, I was down $58 but on the last spin I hit bonus and ended up plus $84 on the play. If I were going after a high limit machine I could have been down many thousands.

When playing these at a barely playable to not playable position you run the risk of getting crushed.

Quote: 100xOdds

It looks like $20 coin-in moves it by .03.

And it starts at $9k

The math on these is actually fairly easy...

It's at $9750, so worst case scenario you'd need another $250 before it hits. $250 is 25000 pennies (since the meter moves up by pennies we want to calculate the EV of the "worst case scenario"). You said the meter moves 3 penies every $20 coin in. This mean 25000/3 = 8333.33 (the number of $20 spins you need), which will result in $166,666.67 in Total Action required in the "worst case scenario".

Assuming the slot has about a 10% HE, this means your Expected Loss is $16,666.67... to win $10k (oh, and we're forgetting about taxes for now). I.E. NOT WORTH IT.

I am curious though... Axel/Exoter and a couple other of the professionals. Do you guys always look at this "worst case scenario" for your EV? Or does the fact that it "usually" will pay before the "worst case scenario" ever get worked in to your calculations?

edit - apparently I also need to find a way to check the HE % of these games. I was going to work off a "safe 10%" assumption, but from the sounds of it these things sound way worse than what I was presuming.

And don't forget the variance on these can be pretty brutal. Could be a huge percentage of the payback is from a small number of giant bonus round wins and the base game paybacks are total crap. If you don't get any hand pay bonus rounds, the money you run through might come back at 50-60% (sans $10K must hit).

You'll prolly get some nice comps though.

Romes, the overall return is probably 10-12% but that includes the base progessives. Whenever I do it I use 10% as well to see if it is worth it and I always use worst case scenerio. The little story I just told was the first time it ever went to worst case but I am sure it won't be the last. You will be running well under 10% as well until you get the progessive.

Quote: GWAE

Romes, the overall return is probably 10-12% but that includes the base progessives. Whenever I do it I use 10% as well to see if it is worth it and I always use worst case scenerio. The little story I just told was the first time it ever went to worst case but I am sure it won't be the last. You will be running well under 10% as well until you get the progessive.

Ahh, I was just confused at first by this post but after rereading it, it makes more sense:

Quote: Exoter175

...Generally, most of us apply a 30% hold to a game when we try to deduce the "breakeven". Though a game is supposed to pay 80-99% back, the reality is that most of these penny progressives with "must hits" pay about 57-65% back outside of their bonus rounds (which account for about 18-28% of their payback) and the progressive picks up the remainder "most of the time"...

If you plan to do this many times, throughout the years, the game should still be taken at 10% though, correct? Just because you don't hit a bonus round on this play doesn't mean you don't hit 2-3 on the next play, etc, etc, in the long run, correct?

Quote: Romes

The math on these is actually fairly easy...

It's at $9750, so worst case scenario you'd need another $250 before it hits. $250 is 25000 pennies (since the meter moves up by pennies we want to calculate the EV of the "worst case scenario"). You said the meter moves 3 penies every $20 coin in. This mean 25000/3 = 8333.33 (the number of $20 spins you need), which will result in $166,666.67 in Total Action required in the "worst case scenario".

Assuming the slot has about a 10% HE, this means your Expected Loss is $16,666.67... to win $10k (oh, and we're forgetting about taxes for now). I.E. NOT WORTH IT.

I am curious though... Axel/Exoter and a couple other of the professionals. Do you guys always look at this "worst case scenario" for your EV? Or does the fact that it "usually" will pay before the "worst case scenario" ever get worked in to your calculations?

edit - apparently I also need to find a way to check the HE % of these games. I was going to work off a "safe 10%" assumption, but from the sounds of it these things sound way worse than what I was presuming.

Stop, stooooooop, stooooooooooooooooooop, STAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHP.

Trust me when I say this, your calculations are off by a large, large amount. You absolutely DO NOT want to calculate HE % on these games at all, I believe I've already explained why in my previous post, and I don't want to give you guys too much to work with (Since you guys that play these with zero mathematics to support your drives to play them, are generally the people I "need" to move these into profitability before I take them)..............but with that being said, you have to factor the progressive OUT of the HE%. A big part of what I do and how I do it, and what makes me "good" at my job, is putting myself in position to see the game's actual accounting screens that only a slot tech/attendant/manager can pull up. I say this, because there's a million different ways to calculate these machines and figure out their volatility is to first hand SEE, remember, take a mental picture, and calculate for yourself. Beyond that, most people don't know the progressive is factored INTO the machine's payback %, so we cannot calculate HE% on the game if the very progressive we are going after, is currently being factored into the "worst case scenario". You have to take that portion out, and in some cases, its nearly 30% of the machine's payback %.

Example, have you ever seen the WoO post on "mystery progressives" and the suggested targets for them? As a professional in this industry, and one of the top 10-15 leading experts in this field (In terms of raw machine knowledge), those numbers are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy off, and if we were to follow them, we'd lose our collective asses in doing so. Further, I've heard a lot of talk about this idea of "halfway or better" around here, and that's just nuts. Some of these machines are designed to take in $35,000 to move a 250-500 and payout, "half way" isn't even remotely close.

Quote: BTLWI

And don't forget the variance on these can be pretty brutal. Could be a huge percentage of the payback is from a small number of giant bonus round wins and the base game paybacks are total crap. If you don't get any hand pay bonus rounds, the money you run through might come back at 50-60% (sans $10K must hit).

You'll prolly get some nice comps though.

Correct, on this specific machine, I know the exact numbers, and fortunately this weekend I ran well "above" the numbers due to bonus frequencies and took one down. We profited before the progressive hit, netting just short of $9,250 after taxes and slot attendant "tips".

These games are AWFUL and BRUTAL, but that can be said for ALL "must hit" progressives. We came with nearly $20,000 this weekend to clear it, and had to use about $2600 before this thing just went skyward on us and we were up almost the entire way after that.

The number we took it at was $9,952.xx, we hit it at $9,992.xx and generated a TON of comps. Best part was, this was only my third trip to that specific casino this year, and I've cleared their top card in three visits. Did I also mention it was a point multiplier day? :D

This is the shit I live for, but I was fully expecting to take this thing around the $9,950.xx mark and having to be 12 or 13k into it before I hit it.

Quote: GWAE

Romes, the overall return is probably 10-12% but that includes the base progessives. Whenever I do it I use 10% as well to see if it is worth it and I always use worst case scenerio. The little story I just told was the first time it ever went to worst case but I am sure it won't be the last. You will be running well under 10% as well until you get the progessive.

On this machine, a dollar machine, its safe to assume you'll be running in the 60's unless you are ripping bonus after bonus during your stint. I Cleared SEVEN tax forms that night. SEVEN.

Quote: Romes

Ahh, I was just confused at first by this post but after rereading it, it makes more sense:

If you plan to do this many times, throughout the years, the game should still be taken at 10% though, correct? Just because you don't hit a bonus round on this play doesn't mean you don't hit 2-3 on the next play, etc, etc, in the long run, correct?

In theory, yes, in practice, no.

You see, here's the thing. Unless you're me with HUNDREDS of thousands to draw from, all the time in the world, and a TEAM of players to work with, and dozens of more "scouts" in those geographical areas to "find" us the games, how many times are you really, honestly going to get a shot at it?

Its one thing to take 3 or 4 $500 machines every week and carry on with your life. Its another to clear a $10,000 machine every two or three months. In order to return to any given percentage if you've ever gone "under" its percentage, is to get more plays, and those plays just don't pop up often enough. These things are WILDLY volatile. Just before I took the machine, I watched a guy dump about $2,000 into the machine rather fast, and experienced likely 43-45% payback based on what I saw from his accumulated points vs. dollar in. That thing very well could have wrecked me in this simple scenario, but it didn't because I lucked out. Some machines are simply a "Crapshoot" on whether or not you'll come out ahead. This is absolutely NO WAY to guaranteed make money on them, unless you already have their "absolute worst case" number figured out, and then you couldn't possible lose if you are within that window. These windows are exceptionally tight, of course, and rarely do you ever get a shot inside of that window because people are reluctant to leave them that high.

Most jurisdictions have a minimum payback. Granted that payback includes the min progrrssives. You can still figure that worst case scenerio it would be 15%, however as the progressive rises, t he HE shrinks. The machine may be paying at 50% as you say but when you hit the jackpot your HE would adjust since the progressive was part of that number.

My point is, when figuring out whether you should play it or not you are safe to assume worst case and use a 15% HE. But when you are determining how much money you need I would definitely use a much higher number since you won't realize the correct HE until you hit the goal. It would suck to go broke when it is at 9996 because you were short cash.

The smart thing to do would be to play only the ones that are just a few pennies away from "hitting", for example, let's say that Country Girl has a "Must hit by $50," and the meter reads $49.50. You are playing dimes. At the most, you would only be spinning 100 times, or wagering $10. Let's say 50 of those spins were complete losers, and 50 spins either gave you your money back or less. You ended up losing about $8 in total, but you got the $50 progressive. You are now $42 ahead! :)

Ploppies very rarely leave the machines.

Quote: Kentry

The smart thing to do would be to play only the ones that are just a few pennies away from "hitting", for example, let's say that Country Girl has a "Must hit by $50," and the meter reads $49.50. You are playing dimes. At the most, you would only be spinning 100 times, or wagering $10. Let's say 50 of those spins were complete losers, and 50 spins either gave you your money back or less. You ended up losing about $8 in total, but you got the $50 progressive. You are now $42 ahead! :)

I sure as hell have never seen a $50 max must hit with a 5% meter rise. But good luck getting someone off that machine at that point unless they have a seizure.

Quote: sabre

...But good luck getting someone off that machine at that point unless they have a seizure.

Exactly what I meant above. Ploppies just won't move.

In the scenario I typed up above, you would be the only one "plopping away," and getting the Progressive, you're good. :)

Quote: Kentry

In the scenario I typed up above, you would be the only one "plopping away," and getting the Progressive, you're good. :)

And how did the person playing it up to $49.50 die? Because that's the only way they're leaving. Also, 5% meter rise as in your example is a bit of a pink elephant.

Quote: Kentry

In the scenario I typed up above, you would be the only one "plopping away," and getting the Progressive, you're good. :)

No you wouldn't because the ploppy will get on it at $43 and never leave.

If you're the ploppy who got on it at $43, you're good(of course, you'd also be spinning way more than 100 spins if you get on it at $43 versus $49.50. ;))

Yeah, not sure it's fair to call people ploppies here. You'd have to be sure they didn't know it was an advantage play, and it's hard to see how they'd fail to realize that with a high meter. But, also 100 $0.10 spins from $49.50 to $50? Lolitty lol lol lol.

Quote: GWAE

Most jurisdictions have a minimum payback. Granted that payback includes the min progrrssives. You can still figure that worst case scenerio it would be 15%, however as the progressive rises, t he HE shrinks. The machine may be paying at 50% as you say but when you hit the jackpot your HE would adjust since the progressive was part of that number.

My point is, when figuring out whether you should play it or not you are safe to assume worst case and use a 15% HE. But when you are determining how much money you need I would definitely use a much higher number since you won't realize the correct HE until you hit the goal. It would suck to go broke when it is at 9996 because you were short cash.

This entire quote is just absolutely wrong. While jurisdictions "might" have a minimum % payback, that does not mean the machine has to be SET to have that minimum payback %. I've seen this information first hand, and I'm not entirely sure I'm allowed to, or that its legal for me to have seen them, but alas, I have. I've seen some pretty monstrous setups where the base payback % is 57%, the bonus% is 17%, and the progressives just 8%. In case you were wondering, that's an 82% machine. The thing is, and especially so in a lot of these cases, those payback %'s are based on the whole "assortment" of penny/nickel/quarter/dollar denoms in raw payback %, and further, towards the states that have a mandatory minimum % payback, will largely offset the payback % of all machines by including a slew of 98-99% payback video poker machines in hordes to average it all back out.

My point is, as a slot player, you are dealing with incomplete information when you attempt to define something as an advantage, unless you know the basics like the meter rate and its threshold of a guaranteed win based on meter rate alone, which usually up there in the 498.50/500, 49.85/50 categories, and in the case of this specific machine, basically around 9998ish. One should also never be attempting to factor in HE% into anything. Throw that right the hell out of the window, because this is not blackjack, the game your are playing is independent of your goal. HE% can only be factored AFTER the "play" has completed, and attempting to factor in 10-15% as a method in which you're attempting to "take" a play is futile.

Take a Quick Strike China Shores machine as an example. Loooooooooong meter rate on those, generally around the $3.50-$4.50 mark. Lets say $4.00 for this example.

Most people will absolutely shit themselves to find a $490.00 quick strike just sitting there, and will immediately play it. However, with 1,000 pennies to go, at a $4 meter rate, that's $4,000 in action to guarantee the progressive. If its a base 61% payback, with 16% payback in the bonus, and 11% payback in the progressive, we effectively have an 88% payback machine. For the purpose of this argument, lets say that bonus comes up every 400 spins and you're betting .60/spin.

From 4,000 in action, we'll get ~6,667 spins at our .60 bet. If the bonus were to pop up every 400 spins on average, we'll yield 16.65 bonuses (we'll call it 17). In that time that you spin the machine 6,667 times with 61% payback, you'll have lost ~ $1,590. The bonuses which on average will yield about 24 spins per bonus and pay x2 in the bonus, will have an expected payout of 17x24x.60x2, or ~$490. Thus bringing you up to an $1100 loss before the major hits at $500, a total of $600 loss, minus the minor progressive payouts that could potentially have happened with an average of about $38 and 1.3ish hits, or around $551 in losses.

Now, that's a "perfect world" scenario, where both the base payback % is achieved, as well as the bonus payback % is achieved, and the difference in actual payback % and the listed % comes through the progressive, since we were on it for such a short window in the general scheme of things.

But what happens when you see 55% payback and suffer an additional ~$210 in losses? What happens if you lose half your bonus% and lose an additional $245?

These guys are designed to be tested over MILLIONS of spins, not just 6,667, and what makes matters worse is that the majority of these games have a "holy fuck what just happened" variable programmed into them, to where the most improbable of all things happens, and a person finds themselves in a "Forever bonus". I myself have been stuck there, personally, had to spend 7.5 hours of my life on a China Shores machine that I received a little over 4,700 free games on. At $1.20 per bet, paying x2 in the bonus over 4,700 free games, my expected bonus win is supposed to be 4,700x1.20x (.61x2), or ~$6,880, which was pretty freaking close to what happened, ($7,0xx.xx), and that's in the realm of 11,450 times the bet amount (freaking huge), and those wins, those exceptionally rare and written off as "flukes" are the wins that truly make up for the payback % in these games, and though they aren't listed on the accounting reports (in the very brief times I've seen them with a moments glance, they don't seem to be there) they exist in the games programming.

In essence, 10-15% HE shouldn't be calculated before you hop on a progressive, but instead, the likelihood of all events unfolding, but most conditionally being the base payback% of the game while you play it, and the bonus frequency. Those two will go a long way towards setting yourself up to win, rather than lose, while a standard 10-15% HE against the total possible wagered money will likely set you up for a pretty sizable loss.

Quote: Kentry

The smart thing to do would be to play only the ones that are just a few pennies away from "hitting", for example, let's say that Country Girl has a "Must hit by $50," and the meter reads $49.50. You are playing dimes. At the most, you would only be spinning 100 times, or wagering $10. Let's say 50 of those spins were complete losers, and 50 spins either gave you your money back or less. You ended up losing about $8 in total, but you got the $50 progressive. You are now $42 ahead! :)

I know games that will take $750 in action to move their progressive that final .50, never ever ever make assumptions based on an arbitrary number of spins, without checking the correlation between spins, bet size, and meter rate first.

But yes, in general the closer you play those progressives to their cap point, the better off you are.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Ploppies very rarely leave the machines.

I consider the verbiage of "very rarely" to be at or around 5% of the time, that certainly doesn't stack up to your statement. While many people (especially the higher the number and closer it is to the progressive hit point) will likely handcuff their financial fortitude to the machine and never let the machine go, I feel its actually closer to about 35-40% of the time they will at some point relinquish the machine while in "positive ev" territory, you just have to be the "next man" in the chain of custody, and that's truly part of the "skill" in and of itself.

Quote: sabre

And how did the person playing it up to $49.50 die? Because that's the only way they're leaving. Also, 5% meter rise as in your example is a bit of a pink elephant.

Contrary to popular belief, you don't have to get it at $49.50 to make profit, nor do people "always" stay on the machines.

I was once handed a $499.54 WMS Unicorns progressive before, because a guy was simply "out of time" and had to leave. I spun the machine maybe 75 times at .80 bet and won the progressive at $501.xx.

Conversely, I've had people lock up a machine for almost an entire week with their family trying to hit it before and never got my shot because I decided the value of my time was worth more elsewhere, than trying to wait to be the next person on.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

No you wouldn't because the ploppy will get on it at $43 and never leave.

If that were the case, I wouldn't be making 100k/yr at my "job", would I? :P

Oh, it's the case for sure. I see it everyday. Maybe not in your area, but they bring super glue with them here.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Oh, it's the case for sure. I see it everyday. Maybe not in your area, but they bring super glue with them here.

I travel yearly across the united states multiple times. Trust me when I say this, that surely is not the case "always". The majority of the time, sure, but it also depends on which games you're watching. A solid "machine AP" will be able to determine the size of someone's possible bankroll based on their actions and body language alone, and they'll be better advised to determine to continue to "sweat" that particular machine, or move on. Of course, the lower the progressive value, the higher the rate at which a player will play "through" and drop it. when you get to my level on the $2500 must hits or the $10,000 must hits, its only really a matter of time between you and the progressive, and whether it drops for the guy ahead of you, or he gets off and you drop it. If all you're doing is stalking $50 must hits, you're probably not making a whole lot per hour anyways, and should probably focus your skills elsewhere.

I don't stalk must hits. There are no large ones here either. They are the last thing I'll look at. Table games always come first.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I don't stalk must hits. They are the last thing I'll look at. Table games always come first.

That would explain your heinously skewed perspective on the matter.

If you say so...

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If you say so...

I know so, because I make a living off of it, I'm not sure what part of that you aren't getting lol.

Quote: Exoter175

I know so, because I make a living off of it, I'm not sure what part of that you aren't getting lol.

Anyone can say they are... doesn't mean a hill of beans.

True ones aren't bragging.

Quote: Exoter175

This entire quote is just absolutely wrong. While jurisdictions "might" have a minimum % payback, that does not mean the machine has to be SET to have that minimum payback %. I've seen this information first hand, and I'm not entirely sure I'm allowed to, or that its legal for me to have seen them, but alas, I have. I've seen some pretty monstrous setups where the base payback % is 57%, the bonus% is 17%, and the progressives just 8%. In case you were wondering, that's an 82% machine. The thing is, and especially so in a lot of these cases, those payback %'s are based on the whole "assortment" of penny/nickel/quarter/dollar denoms in raw payback %, and further, towards the states that have a mandatory minimum % payback, will largely offset the payback % of all machines by including a slew of 98-99% payback video poker machines in hordes to average it all back out.

Could you please name a jurisdiction where the minimum payback percentage requirement can be achieved based on a weighted average of all machines? Just one...any one will do...

And, your example shows a machine set to 82%. That'd satisfy the requirements in a jurisdiction with an 80% minimum payback (like AZ, or KS, or WV)

Quote: rdw4potus

Could you please name a jurisdiction where the minimum payback percentage requirement can be achieved based on a weighted average of all machines? Just one...any one will do...

Yeah. Same here. I know PA requires each machine to have a greater than 85% theoretical return. Of course you have to include the reset amount and meter rise in your calculations, but I've never seen that drop a game below 80%, though I'm sure some exist. And I thought it was common knowledge that bonus rounds account for a large portion of the theoretical return.