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February 17th, 2015 at 12:58:02 PM permalink
Question regarding the Bally Alpha 2 Pro Stepper 3 reel type machines that have Quick Hit feature. This machine comes in several variants but the basic game features include:

Bally Alpha 2 Pro Stepper

https://www.ballytech.com/games/class3/stepper/quick-hit-double-jackpot-triple-blazing-7s-qd7-5001-$-2110

Mechanical 3-Reel system

1 Center payline

With Quick Hit Feature

1 Credit Played gets all regular symbol pays

2 Credits Played gets Quick Hit feature which are: 1) 3 scattered Quick Hits symbols you win the progressive bucket, and 2) if all Quick Hit symbols hit on the pay line you get 10,000 credits (some are set to 5,000 credits).

From Bally:
• 3 Reels, 1 Line, 2 Credits Max Bet
• Lines: 1
• Credits: 2
• Multi-Denomination
o Denominations Available: 20¢, 25¢, 50¢, $1, $2, $5, $10, $20, $25, $50, $100, $200, $250, $500, $1,000
• Recommended Configuration 1 Line, 2 Credits per Line, 2 Credits Max Bet, $1
• Top Award
o 10,000 Credits × Denomination
o Triggered by three Quick Hit symbols on the center payline; occurs every 227,556 plays
•Optional Progressive
o Single level Internal/External Progressive
o 1,000 Credits × Denomination
o Triggered by three scattered Quick Hit symbols; occurs every 3,413 plays
• Game Play
o Double Jackpot symbol in a winning combination on the center payline is Wild and substitutes for all symbols except Quick Hit
o One Double Jackpot symbol doubles the winning combination
o Two Double Jackpot symbols pays 4× in a winning combination
• Artform: QD7-5005
• Overall Hit Frequency: 32.85%

I know about the RNGs and some PRNGs slot machines have and how they work and are linked to the spin button and the millisecond it pulls the codes etc. This type of machine has a progressive bucket as well. At one of my locals the progressive resets to $1,000 once it’s hit. The progressive always hit prior to $1,100. I know the machines can be set up based on what the casino wants the payouts, PAR etc. to be. But this is what I can’t get my head around. These machines are random right???? Well how can the casino control their overall payouts if they are random without some middle man in between the RNG and the actual pay line? How are they totally random or are they random with some influence? My local adds $0.01 (1 cent) to the progressive bucket for every 2 spins. So for it to climb $1 it needs to have 200 spins etc. But more what my question pertains is: The progressive bucket always hit’s somewhere before $1,100 and resets to $1,000. In fact from what I’ve hit and what other locals that play as often as I do and from what the attendants tell me, the progressive buckets highest value has been $1,093. There seems to be a “sweet spot” in the range of where it hits but that isn’t part of my questions. If it is so random how’s it that it always hits prior climbing to $1,100, and why doesn’t it just keep climbing say to $2,000+. Any insight would be appreciated. Thanks
Mission146
Mission146
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February 17th, 2015 at 5:19:31 PM permalink
Quote: 7DOWN11


o Triggered by three scattered Quick Hit symbols; occurs every 3,413 plays

I know about the RNGs and some PRNGs slot machines have and how they work and are linked to the spin button and the millisecond it pulls the codes etc. This type of machine has a progressive bucket as well. At one of my locals the progressive resets to $1,000 once it’s hit. The progressive always hit prior to $1,100. I know the machines can be set up based on what the casino wants the payouts, PAR etc. to be. But this is what I can’t get my head around. These machines are random right???? Well how can the casino control their overall payouts if they are random without some middle man in between the RNG and the actual pay line? How are they totally random or are they random with some influence? My local adds $0.01 (1 cent) to the progressive bucket for every 2 spins. So for it to climb $1 it needs to have 200 spins etc. But more what my question pertains is: The progressive bucket always hit’s somewhere before $1,100 and resets to $1,000. In fact from what I’ve hit and what other locals that play as often as I do and from what the attendants tell me, the progressive buckets highest value has been $1,093. There seems to be a “sweet spot” in the range of where it hits but that isn’t part of my questions. If it is so random how’s it that it always hits prior climbing to $1,100, and why doesn’t it just keep climbing say to $2,000+. Any insight would be appreciated. Thanks



Okay, I've quoted the relevant factors to your question.

The first thing that you have to look at is the fact that you need 200 spins (as you pointed out) for the Progressive to climb up $1.00. That means that, in order for the Progressive to climb up $100 from base, you would need 20,000 spins:

If 200 spins = $1.00, then 2000 spins = $10 and 20000 spins = $100

Simply put, the machine hits before the Progressive gets to $1,100 simply because that is precisely what the machine is expected to do. If the, "Cycle," (average number of plays) is 1 in 3413, then that means, from base, the Progressive will hit at ((10/2000) * 3413) + 1000 = 1017.065 or $1017.07

Now, you want this machine to hit $1,100 before this bad boy pops, so you look at the probability of it going that many hits without hitting at least once:

(1 - 1/3413)^20000 = 0.00284894678 or 1/0.00284894678 = 1 in 351.00691

Essentially, that means that, for every time the Progressive resets you're only going to see it get up to $1,100 (or more) an average of 1 in 351 times per reset.

When you talk about it getting up to $2,000, now you want it to go 200,000 spins without it hitting at least once:

(1 - 1/3413)^200000 = 3.5224381e-26 or 1 in NOT GOING TO HAPPEN

Specifically, it is a 0.000000000000000000000000035224381 probability of that happening or 1/0.000000000000000000000000035224381 = 1 in 28,389,427,000,000,000,000,000,000

Another thing to consider is the $2.00 bet, if you have a probability of 1/3413 for something to hit and the something in question pays 2000, then:

((1/3413) * 2000)/2 = 0.29299736302 which means you'd be getting 29.299736302% off that result, where, at base:

((1/3413) * 1000)/2 = 0.14649868151 that result accounts for 14.649868151% of your return.

It's a shame you don't know the overall hold of the machine, spoon-feeding you the probabilities of the Progressives makes finding a +ER number easy. Although, the machine would have to be set really high on the base pays for that to ever happen. Every $100 added to the Progressive (which we see doesn't happen often) adds 1.4649868151% to the overall return, so I doubt that this is a machine you would frequently (read: ever) see positive.

CONCLUSION

Depending on the gaming jurisdiction, one would either assume the machine is random or the machine is not random, but the machine's failure to reach a Progressive of $1,100 does exactly nothing to disprove randomness. Randomly, it's far less likely to reach that point than it is not to reach that point.

We also touched briefly upon, "Cycles," so here's another one:

If we accept that the probability of the machine hitting $1,100 (or more) is 1 in 351.00691 per reset, then the machine has a 50% chance of going:

(1-1/351.00691)^243 = 0.49993254739

Between 242 and 243 resets (or more) without reaching that point.

In fact, there is a (1-1/351.00691)^1000 = 0.05767031345 or 5.767031345% probability that it goes 1,000 resets (or more) without reaching that point...that's just outside of the Second Standard Deviation.

With all due respect, I doubt if you have personally observed the Progressive reset enough times to determine that it never exceeding $1,100 means anything in terms of randomness. I'm also inclined to doubt whether or not the slot crew should have necessarily seen that happen.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
7DOWN11
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February 17th, 2015 at 5:45:38 PM permalink
WOW Thanks for the post! I will read, re-read, and re-read this! Very detailed Thanks
Mission146
Mission146
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February 17th, 2015 at 5:58:51 PM permalink
Not a problem, fun to do.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
kenarman
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February 17th, 2015 at 6:56:17 PM permalink
I believe what happens on the must hit before ???? machines is that the odds of the slot hitting the jackpot are adjusted higher by the programming the closer it gets to the must hit number. Eventually the odds get to 100% 1 cent before the must hit amount. Some of the slot machine programmers on the site can probably confirm this.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
Mission146
Mission146
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February 17th, 2015 at 7:58:22 PM permalink
Quote: kenarman

I believe what happens on the must hit before ???? machines is that the odds of the slot hitting the jackpot are adjusted higher by the programming the closer it gets to the must hit number. Eventually the odds get to 100% 1 cent before the must hit amount. Some of the slot machine programmers on the site can probably confirm this.



That may be, but the machine in question is not a must-hit. It's just a standard Progressive.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
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February 18th, 2015 at 3:22:41 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That may be, but the machine in question is not a must-hit. It's just a standard Progressive.



Correct on the type of progressive, this machine is NOT a must hit by. Yesterday at 6:23 PM machine #2 (as we've labeled it) hit for 10,000 credits !!!! Lucky!
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