AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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March 8th, 2014 at 2:39:07 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

90% of the time I analyze a game like this it comes up tits. Nothing there. But I'm willing to pay the cost because of the 10% of the time I find a gem.


Just thinking about your history is amazing...you have journeyed from a boxcar-riding hobo credit hustler to an advanced slot AP who knows all the math. Incredible.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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March 8th, 2014 at 2:46:53 PM permalink
This is one of the most easily wongable slots around. When the available free spins are in the upper portion of their range, there's a fire graphic behind the number. Just look for one with fire in all 3 spin boxes & go for it. It's much more variable than collecting slots like Golden Monkey or must-hit-by slots, but it's a very easy play to identify. Usually, you can see from across the room whether the values are in the right place.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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March 8th, 2014 at 4:13:31 PM permalink
That's true, but a number of the must-hit by slots I have been noticing recently are coin-in based rather than win-and-increase based, so I really like those because you can put an upper bound on your coin-in. You can also assume whatever you wish in terms of base return without the meter increase and determine an expected loss based on that assumption and assuming you don't hit the must-hit until you, you know, must.

I still would like to know whether there is some sort of, "Behind the scenes," RNG type spin that goes on every time to determine if the progressive will win, or if the machine simply randomly determines a set $$$-value or spin number at reset. If it is the latter, then the probability of hitting the Progressive a coin-in basis is simply 1/(However many spins remain until it must be hit) based on the meter increase. If that could be known, then an expected value (in percentage terms) could be determined for just the Progressive and you could assume whatever you want for the rest.

For an example of what I mean, let's say you had a Minor at $48.09/$50.00 and the meter movement for the Minor is $0.01 per $2.00 bet. I tend to want to minimize Variance if at an advantage (have to determine that first) so I am going to bet the minimum of $0.40 and it takes five bets to move the Minor $0.01, then you have 191*5 = 955 bets to hit the must-hit point.

If we could assume that the remaining amount to the must-hit is simultaneously reflective of the probability of hitting, then the first spin would be 1/955.

The EV of the Minor, if that could be assumed, would be 1/955 * 48.09 = .050356 or 5.0356 cents.

If we have a bet of $0.40, then 5.0356 cents is .0503556/.4 = .12589 or 12.589% of the bet.

Therefore, if you want to assume a base return of 1-.12589 = 87.411%, or better, completely ignoring the Minor Progressive, as well as its base value, then you would be at an advantage.

The problem with this is that it cannot be assumed, I don't think, because it is possible that there is some separate random mechanism that either rewards or does not reward the jackpot on a per spin basis.

On the Wizard's page regarding this:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot/

$48.09 would be the target point for the Minor assuming a 12% base hold if the major were at $380, so I would suggest that Wizard is not making the above assumption. I would not make it, either, because there is really no way to know.

EDIT: Actually, Wizard's analysis was based on amount won, so I wonder if he would agree with this?
Vultures can't be choosers.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 8th, 2014 at 4:20:16 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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March 8th, 2014 at 4:21:31 PM permalink
I don't believe Quick Strike is a must-hit, is it?
Vultures can't be choosers.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 8th, 2014 at 4:24:19 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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March 30th, 2014 at 9:32:55 AM permalink
Well, I've got a sample space of 2,335 spins on this game. I had to make the spins myself. There were so many diffferent stats to record that I couldn't be at the mercy of someone else controlling the spin button. So I was willing to pay the cost to see if the game is exploitable. This is what I came up with. Keep in mind that Montana lines games are a max 92%.

Spins: 2,335

2,335x1.25 = a total wager of $2,919
The return in the main game was $1,576

1576/2919 = a 53.99% return
_________________________________________________

I caught the Purple Lions 13 times for a total of 246 free spins.

2355/13 = a frequency of 181.15

Catching the Purple Lions pays $5.
13X5 = $65
65/2919 = 2.23%

The 246 free spins averaged to $1.4146 per spin for a total of $348

348/2919 = 11.92%
__________________________________________________
I caught the Red Lions 6 times for a total of 269 free spins

2355/6 = a frequency of 392.5

Catching the Red Lions pays $15
15x6 = $90
90/2919 = 3.08%

The 269 free games averaged to $1.9628 per spin for a total of $528

528/2919 = 18.09%
___________________________________________________
I caught the Green Lions twice for a total of 137 free spins.
2355/2 = a frequency of 1178

Catching the Green Lions pays $44
44X2 = $88
88/2919 = 3.01%

The 137 free games averaged to $2.635 per spin for a total of $361

361/2919 = 12.38%
____________________________________________________-
My total return was 3056 bets or 104.7%. Whooppeeeee! We've got a play, don't we? ........Houston we have a problem. These are not the only stats I recorded. I made a spreadsheet out of a couple of pages in my notebook and recorded stats on the lion symbols as they landed in the screen. I literally stopped after every spin and recorded it.

Here are the results from 2000 spins

Green Lions
1st reel............2nd reel............3rd reel
..387.................112...................100

Red Lions
2nd reel...........3rd reel............4th reel
..330................259.....................119

Purple Lions
3rd reel..... ......4th reel...........5th reel
..687..................365...................138

These stats suggest different frequencies for catching the free games than what my actual results were:

Green Lions.........1846 This is a much longer frequency than my actual stat of 1178
Red Lions..............787 This is a much longer frequency than my actual stat of 392.5
Purple Lions..........231 This is a much longer frequency than my actual stat of 181

It appears I just ran lucky on catching the free games. So I applied the longer frequencies to the return I got in the first set of stats. Then I imagined I was getting the max number of free games every time, i.e., 80 free games with the Green Lions, 50 free games with the Red Lions and 25 free games the Purple Lions.

The return comes to 90.5%.

The returns I averaged in the free spins could be much lower than what the actual is since the sample space is rather small. But I'm debating with myself on whether I should continue stat-ing this game or just write it off.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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April 7th, 2014 at 11:59:56 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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April 7th, 2014 at 12:20:06 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Advantage play my ass!




I concur.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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April 7th, 2014 at 12:33:15 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

I concur.



I have to say, I respect the work that you put in to analyze it. I really think that keeping your eyes open and analyzing any angle that you can think of is half the game here.

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