$1500 slot refund

I got a mailer awhile ago for the Valley Forge Casino in PA about a $1500 loss refund that they are holding today. The terms are that you can lose up to 1500 and get it refunded in equal parts the first Saturday of the next 3 months. I called and the exclusions are $25 and over machines as well as Video Poker machines for the actual play today. The free play that they load on to the card can be run back through anyway that you would like. Most people are not familiar with this casino, it is very small and considered a resort casino so selection of machines is limited.

I searched the other threads and found that the consensus was to go for a big win; but what was never really discussed is what is considered a big win and when to stop? I plan on going to this casino later today and trying this so any input is appreciated.

Quote: SlackJawYokel

I got a mailer awhile ago for the Valley Forge Casino in PA about a $1500 loss refund that they are holding today. The terms are that you can lose up to 1500 and get it refunded in equal parts the first Saturday of the next 3 months. I called and the exclusions are $25 and over machines as well as Video Poker machines for the actual play today. The free play that they load on to the card can be run back through anyway that you would like. Most people are not familiar with this casino, it is very small and considered a resort casino so selection of machines is limited.

I searched the other threads and found that the consensus was to go for a big win; but what was never really discussed is what is considered a big win and when to stop? I plan on going to this casino later today and trying this so any input is appreciated.

What is the highest machines that leaves in terms of Units bet? If you have a single-line machine at $10 upon which you bet 3 Credits for $30/spin, then you can look at:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/loss-rebate/

Which would effectively be a 50-unit Max Loss, because a unit is $30 in that scenario, so your Optimal win is 60 units ($1800) with a 19.22% probability of success and an expected win of 22.92 units. If you reduce the win goal to 20 units ($300) then you have an expected win of 20.05 (less than three credits difference) with a 36.80% probability of success, nearly double.

If you wanted to do a three-credit bet on a $5 machine at $15/pull, then you'd be looking at 100 units to play with, assuming 90% return, the Optimal Goal is 90 units (+$1,350) with an expected win of 36.91 and a 21.90% probability of success. Although, setting a win goal of 30 units ($450) would only reduce the expected win to 32.17 (less than five units difference) and almost double the probability of success to 40.67%.

The reason the expected win goes down less drastically compared to the increase in the probability of winning is because most successful attempts involve hitting a big pay of one kind or another, however, in the case of smaller win goals, you will occasionally grind your way up to the target with a few mediocre pays or a bunch of small pays in a short time frame.