Jackpot 96k from reset 25k

Hi,

Today I just noticed this bank of 6 linked machines with a relatively very high jackpot. It's an in-house jackpot and there are no other machines in the casino linked to it.

I know that the value of jackpot says nothing about the profitability, as the hitting probability might be extremely low (thus the build up of the jackpot).

I'm rather new to slot play (just read Peter Liston's book yesterday), and I don't know if this almost-4-times-to-reset means anything. It has multi-level progressive jackpots and other levels have pretty 'normal' values. This bank of machine is at a easily overlooked location in this casino.


Below the line ==== are some specifics of the machine (I might need to double check and correct some stuff later).

Is there a quick way to roughly estimate the profitability and required bankroll?

I know that without further info the parameters can assume all kinds of values in a wide range, and the estimated cycle length can be anywhere from 100k or 2 million or more.

I have no ideas how to map the reels in a feasible way yet.

umm....I'm just curious what a preliminary estimate could be, from experience and common sense, perhaps?


Thanks.


Discussion is welcomed, and I'm willing to provide any details without possibly ruining it (though I don't even know if this is +ev).
Please feel free to PM me.

oh btw this casino is in the U.S. mainland run by one of the big conglomerates.


============================================
1c machine, 30 lines, max bet 5x, only max bet eligible for the 5 levels of jackpots.

The jackpots reset values are publicized in the menu:

$25k,
$5k(?)
$1k
$100
$10 (could be $50?)

and as of today (Nov 12, 2013) the values are something like

~$96k,
~$6k(?)
~$2.8k
~$130
~$17 (or $70 for $50 reset....sorry I need to double check :P)


5 reels, 3 positions (the display is 3 rows)

each reel has a unique symbol to trigger jackpot

With max bet, anytime 3 or more trigger symbols show up anywhere, there will be a bonus spin to determine if jackpots will be rewarded.

Each reel with the trigger symbol showing will have it's own chance to hit the corresponding jackpot.

For example, if the 1st, 3rd, and 4th reels show their triggering symbol, then there will be one bonus spin for the 1st level (lowest) of jackpot, one bonus
spin for the 3rd jackpot, and one bonus spin for the 4th jackpot.

I haven't witnessed any bonus spin yet so I don't know the actual probability of a jackpot being awarded GIVEN that you're in a bonus spin.
It's quite likely to be 1 in 10, as the wheel is divided into 10 pies.

======================================================

It might be represented as 1 in 10, but I seriously doubt if it is 1 in 10.

In any event, this sounds like a Bally game of some sort. Many Bally machines have five levels of Progressives and many Bally machines also have a Max bet of $1.50. Almost all $0.01 Bally machines I have seen have a bonus game which is a function of hitting three (or more) of a bonus symbol.

I don't know the specific probabilities for any Bally machine, with exception to Quick Hits. In any event, if the machine were a Quick Hit machine, (which it's not, base Progressive amounts as a multiplier are wrong) then that kind of increase to the top 2 Progressives wouldn't necessarily put you into positive territory because of how unlikely they are to hit. I'm just going to go equivalent increase to give you an example, even though this is just conjecture.

96000/25000 = 3.84x

3.84 * 3000 (9QH Progressive) = 11,520

.0000004822530864197531 (Probability of 9QH) * 8520 (Increase to 9QH Progressive) = .0.411%

As you can see, it is possible for a DRASTIC increase to the Progressives, in terms of value, to not really mean a whole hell of a lot from a standpoint of ER per spin.

The 5k to 6k increase is nearly worthless, I can tell you that right now.

The 1k to 2.8k increase MIGHT be intriguing:

2800/1000 = 2.8

150 * 2.8 = $420

270 * 0.00010721561059290232 = 2.895%

...or not!

Based on QH probabilities, this machine is nowhere near any good, unless the base returns are already 95%+, which I seriously doubt! The probabilities are probably different than Quick Hits machines, but I just wanted to use those to give you an example.

That's pretty much the best I can answer you without knowing the actual probabilities for this game. In any event, if I were walking through the casino in search of an Advantage Play on slots, this machine wouldn't get my attention for a second.

I see.

The machine I'm talking about is not QH, but is indeed Bally.
Thanks a lot, this is still a good reference point for me.
(oh dear I didn't know QH9 has such a low probability!)

As for the 1/10 bonus spin, I think it is said in the menu that if it is NOT a max bet, then the each of the amount as shown on the wheel has a 1/10 probability.
As far as I can remember there's no claim for the matter in regard of jackpot.

Next time when I visit that casino I'll make sure to get the info precise!

Quote: Robert215

I see.

The machine I'm talking about is not QH, but is indeed Bally.
Thanks a lot, this is still a good reference point for me.
(oh dear I didn't know QH9 has such a low probability!)

As for the 1/10 bonus spin, I think it is said in the menu that if it is NOT a max bet, then the each of the amount as shown on the wheel has a 1/10 probability.
As far as I can remember there's no claim for the matter in regard of jackpot.

Next time when I visit that casino I'll make sure to get the info precise!

I figured it was a Bally, fits their typical MO. The value is also diminished by virtue of it being a linked Progressive if anyone else is Max betting, by the way, so you would divide the increase in ER by the number of players Max betting, at a minimum. Even if nobody else is Max betting at the time you start, other people could come along and start Max betting...those linked Progressives are always a very hairy situation.

With those graded multi-Progressives, the top two will almost never result in any appreciable increase to the ER, regardless of the likelihood of hitting, regardless of the machine. You never want to play for those unless you know the exact probabilities and have the appropriate bankroll to go after it. That's why those RF Progressives tend to be worth something on Video Poker. The likelihood of them hitting isn't good, by any means, but you do know the exact probability of it hitting (with Optimal Strategy) and so it is easy to determine if the machine is at an advantage.

The other thing is that VP generally has a higher base ER than you'll get on most slot games, as a result, it doesn't take too drastic an increase to Progressives to put you into positive territory.

I can see how they would all have 1/10 probability if it is NOT a Max Bet, and because it specified that in the Rules, you know that such is absolutely NOT the case when it comes to Max betting and the Progressives, or there would be no caveat.

You can get more specific information if you wish, but there's nothing further I'll be able to offer in terms of advice. We would still lack the base return, probability of Progressives assuming Bonus Games, probability of hitting Bonus Games...and it will still be a Linked Progressive. I wouldn't mess with that particular machine lacking all of that information, if you are looking for a +ER play.

I'd focus on Progressives with known probabilities in your hunt. Quick Hits Platinum has multiple threads, here. The WMS must-hit jackpots have had some threads devoted to them. Video Keno with Progressives, Video Poker with Progressives. Free Game vulturing on those machines upon which the Free Games come at a certain time, by necessity, though rare. That kind of stuff.

Also, Ultimate X Video Poker. You can look for multipliers left behind by other players.

Quote: Mission146

.........That's why those RF Progressives tend to be worth something on Video Poker. The likelihood of them hitting isn't good, by any means, but you do know the exact probability .........
...
...
... because it specified that in the Rules, you know that such is absolutely NOT the case when it comes to Max betting and the Progressives, or there would be no caveat.

......
...
I'd focus on Progressives with known probabilities in your hunt. Quick Hits Platinum has multiple threads, here. The WMS must-hit jackpots have had some threads devoted to them. Video Keno with Progressives, Video Poker with Progressives. Free Game vulturing on those machines upon which the Free Games come at a certain time, by necessity, though rare. That kind of stuff.

Also, Ultimate X Video Poker. You can look for multipliers left behind by other players.

Thank you very much for the useful tips.

A couple of days ago I aimed for a QH5 (the lowest) jackpot of like $60 (with base $30) and I got it, resulting in a ~$11 profit :P

You're welcome, that sounds like a QH machine with a $3.00 Maximum bet, if the base was $30. There are a few different machines that could have been and I only know the probabilities for Quick Hits Platinum.

If it is a Quick Hits Platinum, then doubling 5QH would add a bit over 6% to the ER, so depending on the other QH's, you may have been at an advantage.

yeah I made a wrong decision to play that machine.....I remember somewhere in the thread you EMPHASIZED that if it's not a Quick Hit PLATINUM then 'all bets are off'.

I guess I mostly wanted to investigate that machine myself, and I was betting on that the machine was either +ev or close to break even. I actually took notes after every spin how the Quick Hit symbols showed up. Too bad(?) the jackpot was hit rather quickly so I got only 180 spins.

Just for the QH5, maybe I'll need at least 2~3k spins to have a statistically significant estimate?
so maybe I need to invest more of data collecting, like 20 more times?


btw I was also wondering if the machine will take the jackpot into account as part of the return and sort of 'cancel' or delay' the bonus spins (that is 'due') which usually brings the return back up to normal house edge.

Quote: Robert215

yeah I made a wrong decision to play that machine.....I remember somewhere in the thread you EMPHASIZED that if it's not a Quick Hit PLATINUM then 'all bets are off'.

I guess I mostly wanted to investigate that machine myself, and I was betting on that the machine was either +ev or close to break even. I actually took notes after every spin how the Quick Hit symbols showed up. Too bad(?) the jackpot was hit rather quickly so I got only 180 spins.

Just for the QH5, maybe I'll need at least 2~3k spins to have a statistically significant estimate?
so maybe I need to invest more of data collecting, like 20 more times?

I wouldn't waste time and money trying to figure it out. The QH symbols always appear singly on Reels 1&5, appear either singly or in Pairs (grouped together) on Reels 2 & 4 and appear either 1, 2 or 3 on Reel 3 (grouped together). The result is that you may be able to get a good estimate of the prevalance of QH symbols on Reel 3 over 2k spins, but probably not so much Reels 1&5 due to Variance.

Quote:

btw I was also wondering if the machine will take the jackpot into account as part of the return and sort of 'cancel' or delay' the bonus spins (that is 'due') which usually brings the return back up to normal house edge.

That would be illegal in most jurisdictions as the machine would no longer be operating randomly.

Secondly, the House Edge (in terms of hold) is always constant on the machine regardless of what the Progressive is doing. If you have Base Pays of 90% with a 1% contribution to the Progressive, then the base HE is 9% and the Expected Return is 91%. Those two numbers will be constant for every single game played, so the House's hold will always be expected to be 9% over the long run, regardless of whether an individual player is playing at 91%, 107%, or any other ER.

Quote: Mission146

The QH symbols always appear singly on Reels 1&5, appear either singly or in Pairs (grouped together) on Reels 2 & 4 and appear either 1, 2 or 3 on Reel 3 (grouped together).

oh good to know what I observed wasn't just a short term pattern.

Quote: Mission146

I wouldn't waste time and money trying to figure it out. ..... The result is that you may be able to get a good estimate of the prevalance of QH symbols on Reel 3 over 2k spins, but probably not so much Reels 1&5 due to Variance.

hmm...I guess I won't be doing that unless I have really nothing to do in the casino :P

Quote: Mission146

That would be illegal in most jurisdictions as the machine would no longer be operating randomly.

......If you have Base Pays of 90% with a 1% contribution to the Progressive, then the base HE is 9% and the Expected Return is 91%. Those two numbers will be constant .....

so in the event of hitting a jackpot before hitting bonus spins, I should continue to play till I get the bonus spins?
I mean, with the jackpot gone, the ER is obviously lower than 100% again, but if at that point my actual return is like only 50% (excluding the jackpot) over the past 200 spins, should I keep playing till I get some good hits or bonus spins?



On the other hand, I think the machine can still take the jackpot into account but have independent random spins, don't they?
(just like how the bonus spins work to 'compensate' in the short term)

Quote: Robert215

so in the event of hitting a jackpot before hitting bonus spins, I should continue to play till I get the bonus spins?
I mean, with the jackpot gone, the ER is obviously lower than 100% again, but if at that point my actual return is like only 50% (excluding the jackpot) over the past 200 spins, should I keep playing till I get some good hits or bonus spins?

On the other hand, I think the machine can still take the jackpot into account but have independent random spins, don't they?
(just like how the bonus spins work to 'compensate' in the short term)

If you hit a jackpot at +ER and the return to the jackpot base puts the machine at -ER, then you should discontinue playing if you are pursuing it strictly as an advantage play. Whether or not you hit bonus spins before or after is irrelevant to the Jackpot amount and the ER. The only exception is that if the Jackpot hits during Bonus Games and the Jackpot amount is such that Bonus Games would actually pay less on that result, then it will default to paying you the Jackpot...otherwise Bonus Games just pay 2x or 3x regardless of what the Jackpot in question is. I don't even know if that's true with all of them, but I saw it happen once, and it defaulted to the jackpot amount.

In terms of a poor actual return having occurred before the jackpot, you can't chase bad money with good money and hope for it to go well. You will be bucking -ER after hitting the jackpot, and each spin will carry that negative expectation. Expecting the machine to, "Self-correct," to bring you closer to the ER (in terms of improvement) is Gambler's Fallacy.

The machine cannot adjust the way it is returning the Base pays based on where the jackpot sits or it is not behaving randomly. That would be the equivalent of changing the reel assignments to something less favorable to the player in the middle of play, again, patently illegal in most jurisdictions.

The bonus spins don't 'work' to compensate anything in the short term. The games are designed to be random, which means that Bonus Spins just happen when they happen. Bonus spins don't work exclusively for the purpose of bringing your actual return closer to the Expected Return, they do that because they are factored into the Expected Return, and since you get your original bet back (at a minimum) the Bonus Games automatically exceed the Base ER for that one spin, which is negative, and Bonus spins are either positive or (rarely) a wash.

Quote: Mission146

...... The only exception is that if the Jackpot hits during Bonus Games and the Jackpot amount is such that Bonus Games would actually pay less on that result, ........ I don't even know if that's true with all of them, but I saw it happen once, and it defaulted to the jackpot amount.

okay I'll keep this in mind and report back if I witness otherwise.

Quote: Mission146

....Bonus Spins just happen when they happen. Bonus spins don't work exclusively for the purpose of bringing your actual return closer to the Expected Return, they do that because they are factored into the Expected Return, ......

ahh......come to think of it, I probably confused the bonus spins here with the bonus features in those so called banking machines (accumulator) that 'collects' some kind of credit and 'sort of' have a higher and higher probability to occur after each spin (also similar to those must-hit-by jackpots).

Thanks. I get it now.

It's not the top meter I would be looking at. It's the bottom meter. Can I get the bottom meter to pay for everything by playing when it reaches a certain level? I'm not familiar with your game. But I play a video line game that has ten meters on it. This is how I handled the situation:

It's a twenty line game and you can bet up to 10 cents per line. But you only have to bet 1 cent per line to qualify for the meters. So I'm betting 20 cents per spin. The bottom meter is for making 5 Jacks. It starts at $1. The meter is coin out. At the 20 cent level when you make 3 Jacks it puts 3 cents into the meter; when you make 4 Jacks it puts 11 cents in the meter. I have 15000 spins tracked so far. 2% of the action is going into the meter.

I initially faded the cost of 2000 spins to get an idea of the drop. Discounting out the meters I'm getting dropped for 24%. Through 15000 spins I'm averaging making the 5 Jacks every 196 spins.

20 cents times 196 times 24% = $9.41

So I play the game when I find a meter that high. I also have play points for the higher meters. The opportunity in this game comes from people betting $2 per spin. When they make 3 Jacks it puts 30 cents in the meter; when they make 4 Jacks it puts $1.10 in the meter. They run the meters up and walk off. I come in behind them and spin the play off betting just 20 cents per spin.

Quote: mickeycrimm

...... I have 15000 spins tracked so far. 2% of the action is going into the meter.

I initially faded the cost of 2000 spins to get an idea of the drop. Discounting out the meters I'm getting dropped for 24%. Through 15000 spins I'm averaging making the 5 Jacks every 196 spins.

20 cents times 196 times 24% = $9.41

So I play the game when I find a meter that high...
.....
.... I come in behind them and spin the play off betting just 20 cents per spin.

Thanks for the input. You way of separating the meter pay from the base return also make sense. I learned a lot.

15k spins.....wow that's a tremendous amount of investment of time, money, and effort @@

I mean, in principle one has to do this for each different machine he intends to play, right?

Quote: Robert215

Thanks for the input. You way of separating the meter pay from the base return also make sense. I learned a lot.
15k spins.....wow that's a tremendous amount of investment of time, money, and effort @@ I mean, in principle one has to do this for each different machine he intends to play, right?

I wong these machines. For the bottom meter, 5 Jacks, I play when I find the meter at $9.00 or more. I play until I snap that meter off but I'm also eligible for the higher meters. But their frequencies are much longer than the 5 Jacks meter. I've been averaging hitting the next meter up, 5 Queens, about every 600 spins. And the meter above that, 5 Kings, every 800 spins.

I initially made 2000 spins without an advantage to get an idea of the drop. Since then I only play when I find $9.00 or higher in the Five Jacks meter, $29 or higher in the 5 Queens meter, etc. On every play I count the number of spins I make, what meters I hit....and for how much, and what I won or lost on the play, and log them into my notebook. I use running totals.

These stats tell me everything I need to know. In short, I'm just making an empirical study. Number of spins, what I won or lost, how many meters I hit and for how much, tells me what I'm getting dropped for between meter hits. Through 15,000+ spins it's 24%. I ballpark the overall payback playing straight through at 90%.

There are ten meters on this game. The higher up the payscale the meter is the harder it is to hit. So far I'm mostly making the Five Jacks hit pay for all the spins, and the profit is coming out of the higher up hits.

And I'm coming to the conclusion that I have a 14% advantage when the Five Jacks meter is at $9.00. You need an advantage this big when you are only betting 20 cents per spin to have a decent hourly rate.

mickeycrimm, I seem to recall reading a statement from the site host in a msg. received upon signing up that no betting system has any value and therefore there's no need to discuss such things. But I too am an advantage slot player, and I've done well over the years using a lot of spare time (much of it a huge bore) and analyzing data acquired from that time in casinos when I got home. I understand all of the need for conjecture etc. about the OP's issue/question, but I don't see the value in any of it. What needs to first be done is staking out that machine, which is possible because it was identified as a one-of, for at least three top jackpot cycles if that's the win you're interested in, and keep good operational data on when all the other jackpots also hit. Only then can a reasonable analysis be performed.

Quote: tournamentking

mickeycrimm, I seem to recall reading a statement from the site host in a msg. received upon signing up that no betting system has any value and therefore there's no need to discuss such things. But I too am an advantage slot player, and I've done well over the years using a lot of spare time (much of it a huge bore) and analyzing data acquired from that time in casinos when I got home. I understand all of the need for conjecture etc. about the OP's issue/question, but I don't see the value in any of it. What needs to first be done is staking out that machine, which is possible because it was identified as a one-of, for at least three top jackpot cycles if that's the win you're interested in, and keep good operational data on when all the other jackpots also hit. Only then can a reasonable analysis be performed.

I think that's a slight mischaraterization of the betting systems statement. The intent of that is to say, on a negative expectation game such as craps, roulette, or baccarat, there is no legitimate system of bets that can overcome the HE through trending/predicting. There are other advantage plays, such as "hit by" progressive amounts, misunderstood carryover wilds on slots, card marking, hole-carding, shuffle-tracking, collusion, mis-set bill changers, mis-programmed bonus amounts, counting a particular game or sidebet vulnerable to it, that all can provide +ev in the right circumstances. What mickeycrimm is reporting here, I think, falls under that type of advantage play.

Quote: tournamentking

mickeycrimm, I seem to recall reading a statement from the site host in a msg. received upon signing up that no betting system has any value and therefore there's no need to discuss such things. But I too am an advantage slot player, and I've done well over the years using a lot of spare time (much of it a huge bore) and analyzing data acquired from that time in casinos when I got home. I understand all of the need for conjecture etc. about the OP's issue/question, but I don't see the value in any of it. What needs to first be done is staking out that machine, which is possible because it was identified as a one-of, for at least three top jackpot cycles if that's the win you're interested in, and keep good operational data on when all the other jackpots also hit. Only then can a reasonable analysis be performed.

Tking, I would love to know the name of some of the slots that you have APed. I just get this feeling( mainly from your comments on Slot tournaments)to put it nice, that what your doing and people like Mickey are doing are quite different.

Quote: tournamentking

mickeycrimm, I seem to recall reading a statement from the site host in a msg. received upon signing up that no betting system has any value and therefore there's no need to discuss such things. But I too am an advantage slot player, and I've done well over the years using a lot of spare time (much of it a huge bore) and analyzing data acquired from that time in casinos when I got home. I understand all of the need for conjecture etc. about the OP's issue/question, but I don't see the value in any of it. What needs to first be done is staking out that machine, which is possible because it was identified as a one-of, for at least three top jackpot cycles if that's the win you're interested in, and keep good operational data on when all the other jackpots also hit. Only then can a reasonable analysis be performed.

Tking, I would love to know the name of some of the slots that you have APed. I just get this feeling( mainly from your comments on Slot tournaments)to put it nice, that what your doing and people like Mickey are doing are quite different.

Quote: tournamentking

mickeycrimm, I seem to recall reading a statement from the site host in a msg. received upon signing up that no betting system has any value and therefore there's no need to discuss such things. But I too am an advantage slot player, and I've done well over the years using a lot of spare time (much of it a huge bore) and analyzing data acquired from that time in casinos when I got home. I understand all of the need for conjecture etc. about the OP's issue/question, but I don't see the value in any of it. What needs to first be done is staking out that machine, which is possible because it was identified as a one-of, for at least three top jackpot cycles if that's the win you're interested in, and keep good operational data on when all the other jackpots also hit. Only then can a reasonable analysis be performed.

There's something I learned a long time ago playing multi-meter video poker progressives. A case in point is dollar 6/5 bonus poker in the Mountain Bar at Harvey's/Lake Tahoe. There were 1% meters on 4 Aces, small quads, generic quads. In order to put it on my playable number one of the meters had to miss for 3 cycles.

The meter on the Aces had to move from $400 to $1250. That takes 17,000 games at a $5 bet.
The meter on the small quads had to move from $200 to $525. That takes 6,500 games at a $5 bet.
The generic quad meter had to move from $125 to $230. That takes 1900 games at a $5 bet.

The bulk of my plays came off the bottom meter simply because it has, by far, the shortest cycle. This concept is easily applied to multi-meter slot progressives.

My opinion is the vp progressives are a lot less work to "ap" but I think the best money is in progressive slots, even though the work is much tougher. I hit an $82k $10 progressive at Bellagio five years ago on a wall bank, but I put in months of study beforehand. There've been others, but starting about half that amount and reducing from there. I'm not very much concerned with the meter rate as I am the jackpot amounts and what happens between resets and wins. Nothing is ever a lock, but there are advantageous times to be playing them. Do it enough and the effort begins to feel like it's paying off.

Quote: tournamentking

My opinion is the vp progressives are a lot less work to "ap" but I think the best money is in rogressive slots, even though the work is much tougher. I hit an $82k $10 progressive at Bellagio five years ago on a wall bank, but I put in months of study beforehand. There've been others, but starting about half that amount and reducing from there. I'm not very much concerned with the meter rate as I am the jackpot amounts and what happens between resets and wins. Nothing is ever a lock, but there are advantageous times to be playing them. Do it enough and the effort begins to feel like it's paying off.

I guess I will just say it. Something doesn't ring true about you. I may be a bit delirious perhaps my blood sugar is low, time for some frosted flakes.

Your slot play, I'm not buying it. I would gladly be proven wrong, Perhaps you can elaborate on your advantage slot play I'm very interested, I'm sure your a gr8 slot player. I'll leave it at that for now, I don't to be a pesky varmint to you.

To be clear I really don't think You are one of my long lost friends, You just remind me of them, is all.

I am interested in a reply TK