Learning some things the hardway. Progressive chasing.

On Sunday I was at the M and saw a progressive, the ones that must hit by $500. Max Bet was $1.50 and progressive was at $468.58 when I began playing. I had $300 in my pocket and once that was all gone (about an hour later) I had accumulated a little over 1100 session points on my M Card and had increased the progressive a whole $3.05. Not sure when these machines become positive expectations, but after my experience I don't think $470 is the number. (I can't figure out how to post a picture of the slot machine otherwise I would post so everyone would know the exact game I am talking about.).


Side note on my pursuit of a Royal, friends bought us tickets to the Dan Band at Mandalay Bay on Saturday night and we played afterwards. I stuck with Triple Play Super Times Pay DDB $0.25 play, and was dealt three 8s w/5x bonus, and caught a 4th 8 on one hand for total payout of 1400 credits ($350), but no Royal. On Sunday at the M was playing Triple Play Super Times Pay Deuces $0.25 play (had already ran through a $100 on DDB Super Times Pay) and was dealt 4 to the Royal, but couldn't catch the 5th card.

Sounds like WMS since they only meter up on winning spins, though Bally makes some horrid games too. The ones I used to like with positive expectations were the Aristocrat SAPs which metered up 2.5% of coin-in, but were never guaranteed. Take these changes with lowered paybacks and it's close to impossible ever finding anything good. It depends on the game volatility, but giant BRs are still needed to play these if you want to hit them every time to get the long term benefits of the "must-hit" progressives including losing sessions.

Something lacking in SBG regulations to me has always been the lack of a rule disallowing changing progressives since nothing would stop them from tinkering once the progressive became meaty.

There was another thread here suggesting $490 was break-even. Translation: you'd have better luck finding 10/7 Jacks or Better. When I was in Vegas, there were some barely-positive slot progressives, but not the WMS type.

Congratulations on the big VP hit.

Quote: SONBP2

On Sunday I was at the M and saw a progressive, the ones that must hit by $500. Max Bet was $1.50 and progressive was at $468.58 when I began playing. I had $300 in my pocket and once that was all gone (about an hour later) I had accumulated a little over 1100 session points on my M Card and had increased the progressive a whole $3.05. Not sure when these machines become positive expectations, but after my experience I don't think $470 is the number. (I can't figure out how to post a picture of the slot machine otherwise I would post so everyone would know the exact game I am talking about.).

I've played the talking 3 reel. These ones would pay out at 195 for top bonus (20 small bonus). I played starting at $172 and I went almost a $1000 down at one point before it hit $195 bonus, at which point I quit. (as I recall it hit like at 193)

Now that sounds terrible, but although I went a thousand down, I picked up 7 time points, and returned around 600 back from the 1000 low. So, I was actually able to play for about even, counting the bounce back cash I accumulated on next months mailer.

All of these machines including yours are I believe are advertising "Mystery" bonus can hit at anytime. That's true, and they do. But they also certainly go to their max amounts too.

Quote: RogerKint

There was another thread here suggesting $490 was break-even. Translation: you'd have better luck finding 10/7 Jacks or Better. When I was in Vegas, there were some barely-positive slot progressives, but not the WMS type.

Congratulations on the big VP hit.

Yes, congratulations!

There were a few assumptions made in arriving at that $490.5x figure, but I can assure you, $470.xx is not even close to an advantage point.

Quote: Mission146

There were a few assumptions made in arriving at that $490.5x figure, but I can assure you, $470.xx is not even close to an advantage point.

I'm not really sure about progressives and these so-called Min/Max machines.

How much of the coin in goes toward the progressive bonus? Or is it some percentage of the "otherwise payout" that goes to the progressive.

Quote: FleaStiff

I'm not really sure about progressives and these so-called Min/Max machines.

How much of the coin in goes toward the progressive bonus? Or is it some percentage of the "otherwise payout" that goes to the progressive.

Here are the posts in question:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/slots/11115-nice-little-jackpot-on-a-wongable-slot-from-wms/5/#post176877

Although, there was a good bit of other stuff discussed in that thread.

I should also reiterate (as the post states) that I had to make a few assumptions in coming up with that, and one of those assumptions was a base return of about 88% (including the starting Progressive amount).

In any event, if the machine described in the present OP is the same as the WMS machine described in my post, (and that thread) then the increases to the Progressives are a percentage of the amount won as opposed to the amount bet. Therefore, the percentage of the coin-in that goes into the Progressive Bonus is also theoretical, otherwise, it would be easy to determine a definitive advantage point if you always knew exactly how much coin-in goes towards the Progressive.

For example, let's say I have a machine in which the range is $250-$500 and I know that 1% of all coin-in goes to the Progressive and choose to assume that 88% of the coin-in is otherwise returned.

In that event, all I would have to do is determine at what point (with 1% of coin-in going to the Progressive) it will hit $500 and use my theoretical loss (of anything less than the $250) to determine the advantage point.

If the meter were at $490, for example, then it would take $1000 coin-in to push that to $500, and my theoretical loss on that would be:

(1000 * .12) = $120---before hitting the $500---huge advantage

In fact, if I am going to lose $120 of every $1,000 bet, then my even point would be losing $250, which would mean coin-in of (1000 * 250/120) = 2083.3333333333335, thereby increasing the Progressive Meter by (intentionally rounding up) $20.84 which would mean a break-even starting point of $500 - $20.84 = $479.16

I would, however, be surprised if anyone designed such a machine in which the Progressive increased according to coin-in with a set hit point as it would be easy to identify a definitive and absolute advantage point. If such a machine were designed, I'd suggest that the increase to the Progressives would be well under 1% of coin-in.

I also tend to wonder about the long-term viability and success of these machines. Who the Hell are these people that are playing these machines when the Progressive is at or near its starting point? Actually, on a recent visit to the casino, I noticed that the Majors of similar $250-$500 machines were all around or under $270 in a bank of eight machines...so maybe people are starting to get the idea that such is not really the time to play them.

Quote: Mission146

In any event, if the machine described in the present OP is the same as the WMS machine described in my post, (and that thread) then the increases to the Progressives are a percentage of the amount won as opposed to the amount bet. Therefore, the percentage of the coin-in that goes into the Progressive Bonus is also theoretical, otherwise, it would be easy to determine a definitive advantage point if you always knew exactly how much coin-in goes towards the Progressive.

Yes it was the type progressive that only increases after a win. I knew that going in.

My other question, is it better to bet max on these machines or minimum?

Quote: SONBP2

Yes it was the type progressive that only increases after a win. I knew that going in.

My other question, is it better to bet max on these machines or minimum?

If you bet the minimum, sometimes you become ineligible for the progressive, if that's the case, then playing max will give you a greater return on a percentage basis (but will likely have a greater hourly loss unless its a +EV progressive slot). Other times, they will scale down the probability of you hitting the jackpot. If that's the case, then your return percentage will be roughly the same, but again, your hourly will be worse with the max bet unless the slot is >100% at the time. As for the WMS must hit by $500 slots, I thought a max bet wasn't necessary, but I am unsure. Can someone else confirm this?

Nice hit on the Super Times Pay though!

And to post a picture, I generally post via a free account on photobucket if they are my own pictures. Photobucket creates an internet address for the picture where you can write a formatting code for (surround the code with brackets):

img=http://www.photobucket.com/your_account/your_picture.jpg

The type of slots your talking about look similar to this, right? (Photo originally posted by tsmith.)

Quote: Mission146

I would be surprised if anyone designed a machine in which the Progressive increased according to coin-in with a set hit point as it would be easy to identify a definitive and absolute advantage point.

I'm sure there would develop a corps of Sharpie-SlotPlayers or would be Sharpies who devoted themselves to treking about town searching out such opportunities while the great unwashed masses of slot machine players merely primed the machines for them. For most players its bright lights and cutesy graphics and put the money in then hit the red button. They ain't gonna read the rules or nothin' like that! However, must hit before XXXXX does not mean any more likely to hit immediately prior to XXXXX than at some other time.

Quote: Mission146

I would, however, be surprised if anyone designed such a machine in which the Progressive increased according to coin-in with a set hit point as it would be easy to identify a definitive and absolute advantage point.

There's a number of different brands in the market already. I blogged about a meter in the Venetian high limit room around $9,800 and must hit by $10,000. That meter moved based on coin-in but I can't recall the ratio. The best machine has four different progressive meters that move based on coin-in: Must hit by $10, $50, $250 and $2500. The best part is they can hit up to three times before resetting (If it hits at $2,450 for the first time, it's possible that it will hit two more times before $2500). Usually the higher progressives reset after the first hit. There's also some types of machines with only a minor/major, or three meters, but reset after only hitting once. In downtown Vegas, there was a machine with a meter at $398.02 and must hit by $400. Three dollars coin-in moved the meter 1c and I was down $100 (betting minimum) before it finally went off at 399.86. So, before anyone starts drooling over these opportunities, there's a lot of variance, time and sore feet involved.

Quote: Mission146

If such a machine were designed, I'd suggest that the increase to the Progressives would be well under 1% of coin-in.

There are some of these as well. The Tuscany has a circular bank of ordinary slot machines with a screen above them containing 30 or so pirate flags. The machine awards 3 unveiled pirate flags based on coin-in, not a specific symbol on the slot machine. Unfortunately (or fortunately), there's no indicator of how close the player is to achieving the three unveiled flags. When the correct flag is chosen, a key is unveiled. The player then chooses one of four treasure chests. One chest has the Major (usually around $130) and the rest have the minor (usually around $40). I'll wait until there are only three unveiled flags left before I play. Even then, if I only get the minor, I'm usually still stuck.

So how was the Dan Band? Always wanted to see them.

Quote: FleaStiff

I'm sure there would develop a corps of Sharpie-SlotPlayers or would be Sharpies who devoted themselves to treking about town searching out such opportunities while the great unwashed masses of slot machine players merely primed the machines for them. For most players its bright lights and cutesy graphics and put the money in then hit the red button. They ain't gonna read the rules or nothin' like that! However, must hit before XXXXX does not mean any more likely to hit immediately prior to XXXXX than at some other time.

I think I may not have stated what I was trying to say properly. What I meant is that if the increase to the Progressives was a function of coin-in (win or no win), then an individual could base the pays off of the jurisdictional minimum and know at what point he/she is at an advantage based on when the Progressive must hit alone...because the increase to the meter is fixed.

Tring, any bet on WMS machines qualifies as long as there is a hit. Even playing 1 line has a chance, but the progressive meters are proportional to the amount of the win. They actually can get higher than $500 on huge wins, but they still hit at $500 though so no big deal.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Tring, any bet on WMS machines qualifies as long as there is a hit. Even playing 1 line has a chance, but the progressive meters are proportional to the amount of the win. They actually can get higher than $500 on huge wins, but they still hit at $500 though so no big deal.

Could you be more clear in what you're saying. That doesn't make any sense at all.

Quote: Ahigh

Could you be more clear in what you're saying. That doesn't make any sense at all.

You can win the progressives on any bet, but bigger bets are more likely to trigger(per individual spin) the progressives because wins are multiplied by the bet level. You will move the progressive 100X more with a win of $100 compared to a win of $1. If you're at $498 and win $3000, you may get paid $530 for the progressive, but it was won once it passed the $500 mark.

Furthermore, I suspect these machines have the progressive meter's movement tied to the payback percentage for each machine and are not the same for all machines.