Slot math question

oops!

I don't think CI would be down that much based just on the slightly higher hold %. Look at other factors that may explain the reason CI is down. In your example, 2012 has one weekend in the first 10 days of February and 2013 has two weekends. I would actually expect 2013 to be much higher based on that.

Those hold numbers sounds pretty low for slots. What percentages are your different machines at? In Nevada most of the new penny machines are holding over 12%.

I would agree

I think there may not be enough information to tell. For example:
Your actual hold changed, but did your floor mix or theo? Did players just get lucky/unlucky? Was there an outlier, e.g. a whale who either won or lost a lot?
What external conditions changed? How's the weather? Not kidding - your timeframe coincides with the huge storm in New England. How did Jan '12 / Jan '13 numbers compare, both to each other and to the following 10 days in Feb?

I have thought of all those conditions. Weather actually plays a huge role in our numbers, being in an area where we rely heavily on the ski industry. January '12/'13 numbers followed the same trend as the first 10 days of February for both years. We have lost play in our biggest players, which accounts for most of the difference. Floor theo hasn't changed from year to year, at least hasn't changed drastically. What concerns me is when the coin in falls so will time on device, if people aren't having any fun (or luck) they will stop coming.

Quote: boxman4

... ... ... What concerns me is when the coin in falls so will time on device, if people aren't having any fun (or luck) they will stop coming.

That's true although an increase in hold % can indicate that players are staying longer at the machine (all else being equal).

Quote: boxman4

We have lost play in our biggest players, which accounts for most of the difference.

If your biggest players are high-denom players, that loss would account for both the coin-in going down and the average hold going up since the remainder of your players are playing higher-hold slots, on average.

Quote:

Floor theo hasn't changed from year to year, at least hasn't changed drastically.

But re: the above, how is coin-in distributed across your games compared to last year? If your players move to the tighter games, you'll still hold more per coin-in even if you didn't change the mix.

Quote:

What concerns me is when the coin in falls so will time on device, if people aren't having any fun (or luck) they will stop coming.

That's true, but you don't know which causes the other. If your players are simply going through a bad run, you can use marketing dollars to smooth that over. If there are external factors like the skiing is bad, the ROI on marketing spend might not be as high.
It seems like you've narrowed down the effect to the loss of your big players. The question is why they're not coming. Are they locals or skiing tourists? Are they going elsewhere? Is another property poaching those big players?

Quote: boxman4

I was doing a comparison in some slot numbers for my property and have a quick question for anyone who may be able to help. When looking at coin in figures my coin in has dropped drastically from last year, but our hold is up. I know that having the hold % up will directly affect the coin in, but is there a formula I can use to figure out what my coin in would be if we were holding the same percentage as last year. Just for conversation sake lets say that for the first 10 days of February 2012 coin in was $3,500,000 with a hold % of 5.8 and for the first 10 days of February 2013 coin in is $3,000,000 and a hold % of 6.5. Can a loss of $500,000 coin in be explained by holding an additional 0.7%?

Check your Free Play allocation year over year. It has probably increased significantly. Then consider how Free Play is accounted. You may be counting Free Play (once it has been cycled in) as "Win" but not counting it as drop. That's my guess, because that's what's happening industry-wide. Free Play has thrown slot metrics into chaos. Free Play has cannibalized your drop and given you false win. Then, just wait, you will pay taxes on that false win. Also, you will give players points based on their Free Play after it has cycled in, inflating their theo.

My question here wasn't "why is my my coin in down?" I have identified many reasons for that. My question is, can I figure what my coin in would be if the hold % was the same in both 2012 and 2013 ?

Quote: Switch

That's true although an increase in hold % can indicate that players are staying longer at the machine (all else being equal).

Not for slots/video poker.

Hold % = Win % since all wagers are tracked unlike table games.

Quote: boxman4

My question here wasn't "why is my my coin in down?" I have identified many reasons for that. My question is, can I figure what my coin in would be if the hold % was the same in both 2012 and 2013 ?

Well, this isn't exactly what you are asking I think, but if you kept the same net win for this year, but your hold percentage was 5.8% instead as in 2012, then your expected coin-in would be:

$3M*0.065 = X*0.058
X = $3.362M

Thanks tringlomane, that is exactly what I was looking for. A little embarrassed I couldn't figure it out on my own.

Quote: boxman4

My question here wasn't "why is my my coin in down?" I have identified many reasons for that. My question is, can I figure what my coin in would be if the hold % was the same in both 2012 and 2013 ?

You need to know how much FP you gave out, and how that is accounted for in determining the hold%. You need to back out all false drop due to FP and all win due to FP being recycled, then you can do the math quite trivially to determine the coin-in. Yes, it really is that bad. FP has created a mess. Tringlomane gave you the correct way to do it after you have backed out FP.