EV on Slot Machines- Good play?

I read on here about times when a slot machine is EV+ based on progressives. However my question is "Is this a smart play"? I understand the Good Bet discussion, but with the RNG's and the longshot odds on top prizes on Slots, is this even worth looking at. I may sound like I dont understand EV, but I still am not sure if these are a smart play compared to say Basic Strategy BJ where you are at a disadvantage odds wise, but still win on a fair number of occasions.

Quote: Boz

I read on here about times when a slot machine is EV+ based on progressives. However my question is "Is this a smart play"? I understand the Good Bet discussion, but with the RNG's and the longshot odds on top prizes on Slots, is this even worth looking at. I may sound like I dont understand EV, but I still am not sure if these are a smart play compared to say Basic Strategy BJ where you are at a disadvantage odds wise, but still win on a fair number of occasions.

There are two and only two wealth creation formulae -- all the other wealth creation formulae are derived from these two formulae. Practically all AP's are aware of the first formula known as the kelly criterion (kelly bet or kelly formula, etc), where you bet based on your mathematical advantage.

To discern if it is a smart bet, you have solve the problem based on the game's variance, the e.v., and your bankroll. In slots like VP, bet sizing isn't the same as blackjack where you can reduce your bet. Unfortunately, in slots like VP, you would typically lose before you hit the jackpot meaning at some point, the game is no longer attractive because the "bet" is deemed immutable while your bankroll is not. And as for the amount of time it takes to hit the jackpot, it's somewhat captured by the variance of the opportunity. What I've seen is some AP standardize the opportunity into an EV per hour basis as part of their calculations.

The bottomline is get more information about the "EQUITY" and not the progressive amount per se. As for a tip on smart play, look at your wealth function, i.e ln(net worth) or some other function, and compare the ratio of winning versus losing -- ln(net worth + winnings) / ln(net worth - amount lossed).

I play a lot of VP but I chase the 3rd jackpot as opposed chasing the RF. My neighborhood casino has a 3-way Progressive VP game, and I will chase the game when the 3rd jackpot has sufficient equity. Suppose I am playing a $1 9/6 JOB game and the quad is at $180, you will see me making a beeline for this game (I've lost $700 during a bad run chasing the quad, but it doesn't stop me from sitting my ass down and start the chase). If the STFL is like $700, then I might chase that. The last STFL was over $1,000 the last time when I chased it.

Good luck.