newbie49
newbie49
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Joined: Oct 26, 2010
February 19th, 2011 at 12:37:36 PM permalink
Most calculator show odds of winning after the river. Is there one that shows the chance of winning if only played to flop or turn?

like player 1 has AA, player 2 has KK
what is the odds of player 1 having the stronger hand after flop? and after turn?
LVJackal
LVJackal
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Joined: Jun 1, 2010
March 1st, 2011 at 1:31:54 AM permalink
It's (rough math) 8:1 against flopping a set, and some of the time a set flops for the Kings, a set will also flop for the Aces. You can roughly expect to still be ahead <85% of the time after the flop with a pair over pair situation. Should you survive the flop, come the turn (if you didn't flop a set yourself) the Kings have a 2 in 45 chance of improving (52-AA-KK-XXX on flop= 45 remaining cards) thus the Kings are 21.5:1 which makes the overpair roughly <90 % favorite.

All of the exact mathematics are provided in many places but off the top of my head Caro provides them for multiple games and situations. Hope this helped (and really hope I didn't screw up the math).
WizardofEngland
WizardofEngland
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Joined: Nov 2, 2010
March 1st, 2011 at 5:23:48 AM permalink
I also use the 2x4 rule in a live game.

On the flop work out how many out you have, so an open ended straight flush draw has 8 outs to a straight, and 9 outs to a flush, but two of those will be for the straight flush. So we have 15 outs. 15 x 4 = 60% approx win percentage

On the turn, assume we missed any of our outs, now 15 x 2 = 30% approx win percentage

The hard part is know if an out is actually a out or not.......
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/10042-woes-black-sheep-game-ii/#post151727
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