heatmap
heatmap
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September 7th, 2025 at 4:11:07 PM permalink
First off, the chances of me winning anything are mostly none. Not that I am not manifesting here, but I have won a live poker tournament ticket to a 10K buyin. The GTD is 500k

I need any and all advice please.
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
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September 7th, 2025 at 4:41:03 PM permalink
What advice do you need? Is it transferable? If so your options are sell it or play it. If it's not transferable you just play it.

It seems like a fairly small field. 500k would be 50 entrants (maybe 55 since they take rake from the entry).

How did you win the ticket? Was it a satellite or something else (like a promotion)? If they are giving away entries through a non-poker promotion it should be an incredibly soft field. Do you play poker at all?
heatmap
heatmap
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September 7th, 2025 at 5:12:18 PM permalink
have to play no other option otherwise i wouldnt be here

went from 100 -> to 1000 -> to 10000 sattelite tourneys. i have been so close many times before. this time its a w

i play online mostly all the time
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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September 7th, 2025 at 5:18:09 PM permalink
Odds are you are in the running to be in the top 10.
DRich
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RogerKint
September 7th, 2025 at 5:25:44 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

First off, the chances of me winning anything are mostly none. Not that I am not manifesting here, but I have won a live poker tournament ticket to a 10K buyin. The GTD is 500k

I need any and all advice please.
link to original post



Congrats! About 25 years ago I won a $5k entry into a live tournament from playing online at a site called PartyPoker. At the time it was the first big online site. The tournament that I won entry to was held on a cruise ship and part of the prize was also airfare and the cruise tickets for two. This particular tournament had a first prize guarantee of $1 million for first, but the second through 30th were a little lower than they would be in a standard $5k tournament. I ended up in 14th place and won about $24k which wasn't reported to the IRS because we were in international waters.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
heatmap
heatmap
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September 7th, 2025 at 5:48:34 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: heatmap

First off, the chances of me winning anything are mostly none. Not that I am not manifesting here, but I have won a live poker tournament ticket to a 10K buyin. The GTD is 500k

I need any and all advice please.
link to original post



Congrats! About 25 years ago I won a $5k entry into a live tournament from playing online at a site called PartyPoker. At the time it was the first big online site. The tournament that I won entry to was held on a cruise ship and part of the prize was also airfare and the cruise tickets for two. This particular tournament had a first prize guarantee of $1 million for first, but the second through 30th were a little lower than they would be in a standard $5k tournament. I ended up in 14th place and won about $24k which wasn't reported to the IRS because we were in international waters.
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i was all excited and told my wife and she was like you didnt win 10k you lost 3k in taxes and laughed. heh
SkinnyTony
SkinnyTony
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September 7th, 2025 at 6:10:55 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

have to play no other option otherwise i wouldnt be here

went from 100 -> to 1000 -> to 10000 sattelite tourneys. i have been so close many times before. this time its a w

i play online mostly all the time
link to original post



Don't play scared or you will lose. In fact if others are playing scared you can do quite well by running the table over.

That's really the best advice I can give you. Assuming that you can hand read well, just open wide, give up when you hit resistance, and bluff like crazy against scared players with weak ranges.
billryan
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September 8th, 2025 at 2:29:08 AM permalink
What would happen if you folded every hand and waited for others to eliminate themselves? Do you start with enough blinds to make that possible? I'm not suggesting it as a strategy but am wondering what the result would be. You'd almost certainly outlast a bunch of players, and after folding dozens of hands in a row, you might get away with a big bluff when you finally play a hand
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
odiousgambit
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DRich
September 8th, 2025 at 3:43:46 AM permalink
get the book Casino Tournament Strategy by Stanford Wong

Amazon has it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
100xOdds
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September 8th, 2025 at 5:06:23 AM permalink
Quote: SkinnyTony

It seems like a fairly small field. 500k would be 50 entrants (maybe 55 since they take rake from the entry).
link to original post


At 55 players, I would do SnG strategy.

Play only premium hands so you have a tight image.
When under 10bb, shove with any face card and suited connectors if you're 1st to act.
If 6bb or less, shove with any 2 if 1st to act
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Sep 8, 2025
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
SkinnyTony
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September 8th, 2025 at 1:16:41 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

What would happen if you folded every hand and waited for others to eliminate themselves? Do you start with enough blinds to make that possible? I'm not suggesting it as a strategy but am wondering what the result would be. You'd almost certainly outlast a bunch of players, and after folding dozens of hands in a row, you might get away with a big bluff when you finally play a hand
link to original post



You are taking the wrong approach to this. Scared money doesn't win.

Just play. There are usually a few players who play very scared in tourneys like this; they just get run over by the good players. It's usually the satellite qualifiers, because they are playing for stakes that they can't afford. This is why good players try to angle to get into a table with lots of satellite qualifiers (it's usually possible because seat assignments are usually done in order, rather than being random. When you buy in matters!) And then when they finally play a hand they complain that they lose even though they "got in it good". Understand that if you fold away half your stack and then "get it in good" you are just getting freerolled. If you win you are back where you started and if you lose you are out. Your goal is to continually chip up and build your stack. You do this by abusing players who fold too much.

If the tourney is too big for you then why did you play the satellite? There's no point trying to win an entry to a tournament if you aren't going to play the tournament well.
billryan
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September 8th, 2025 at 2:28:38 PM permalink
The OP is seeking advice for his tournament. I'm curious to know how many rounds a strict no-play method would last. I read that you would be eliminated late on the second day of the WSOP main event, but I'm not sure how that compares to a regular tournament.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DRich
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billryan
September 8th, 2025 at 2:46:54 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The OP is seeking advice for his tournament. I'm curious to know how many rounds a strict no-play method would last. I read that you would be eliminated late on the second day of the WSOP main event, but I'm not sure how that compares to a regular tournament.
link to original post



Every tournament is different as the blinds and antes go up at different rates from one tournament to the next. In general, lower buy-in tournaments they go up faster and you would lose quicker.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SkinnyTony
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September 8th, 2025 at 5:52:27 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The OP is seeking advice for his tournament. I'm curious to know how many rounds a strict no-play method would last. I read that you would be eliminated late on the second day of the WSOP main event, but I'm not sure how that compares to a regular tournament.
link to original post



I can't think of any tournament structure where this would get you in the money. You generally need to make it to the top 10%, which means that at the time that bubble bursts the average stack is 10x starting.

Not to mention that by aiming for a min-cash, you are throwing away tons of EV. Payouts are generally fairly top heavy, though of course this varies.

Starting stack sizes and speed of blind increases generally won't have a huge effect on how effective this strategy is. Let's assume a decent structure where you start with 50k chips and the blinds start at 100/100 with 100 BBA. The bubble is going to bust when the average stack size is 500k. I'd expect this to happen around a level like 5k/10k with a 10k BBA, or maybe 8k/15k with a 15k BBA. Obviously you can't survive to this level if you started with 50k and never played a hand.
unJon
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September 8th, 2025 at 5:59:57 PM permalink
You play a decent amount of poker if I remember correctly. heat. Just play the same game that won you the entry. Separate the fact that the stakes are higher than you are comfortable with. Just play the game that got you here.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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