Worst Bad Beat Ever?
That said, this bad beat is pretty gnarly.
Player 1: Qc9c
Player 2: JTs
Flop: 9s9hQs
Player 1 has flopped a full house while Player 2 has flopped and open-ended straight flush draw. They get it all in for a $400,000 pot, and they agree to run it twice.
Turn and river #1: Ac8s
Player 2 catches one of his two outs to make the straight flush. Sick, but hardly unheard of. Lucky for Player 1, they have agreed to run it twice.
Turn #2: Ks
Player 2 yahtzees his one remaining out to collect both shares of the pot.
Catching a two-outer is one thing, but catching BOTH of them? Whoa nelly.
Quote: DeucekiesEverybody who has ever played poker has had The World's Worst Bad Beat at one point or another. The phrase hardly means anything anymore.
That said, this bad beat is pretty gnarly.
Player 1: Qc9c
Player 2: JTs
Flop: 9s9hQs
Player 1 has flopped a full house while Player 2 has flopped and open-ended straight flush draw. They get it all in for a $400,000 pot, and they agree to run it twice.
Turn and river #1: Ac8s
Player 2 catches one of his two outs to make the straight flush. Sick, but hardly unheard of. Lucky for Player 1, they have agreed to run it twice.
Turn #2: Ks
Player 2 yahtzees his one remaining out to collect both shades of the pot.
Catching a two-outer is one thing, but catching BOTH of them? Whoa nelly.
Reminds me of the famous Patrik Antonius/Jamie Gold hand on high stakes poker. Ran it 3 times with a $750k pot and Gold wins two of them as a 4-1 dog
Still, getting perfect perfect would be harder. I have seen that happen.
For example, Hero flops quads. Villain gets it in with an overpair and makes runner runner higher quads. That's like 1/1400 or something.
I also saw one that indicated how awful the play was in FL at the time. I forget what I had, but it was a family pot, not uncommon at the time. Anyway, the flop comes 888 and it checks around. The turn is the case 8; one guy bets and gets 4 callers! At this point, I'm wondering how many aces are in the deck!
The river brings an Ace for a 5-way chop. At showdown, the turn bettor was the only one with an ace! I guess that would not technically be a 'bad beat' since he won a share of the pot, but still...
Quote: JoemanI saw some crazy stuff back in the $2 limit days (early to mid 2000's) at the Florida cardrooms. The worst beat I witnessed was a flopped full house beaten by runner-runner quads. I don't remember the ranks exactly, but Guy #1 had like JJ, and Guy #2 had 66. Flop came J33. The turn & river went 66.
I also saw one that indicated how awful the play was in FL at the time. I forget what I had, but it was a family pot, not uncommon at the time. Anyway, the flop comes 888 and it checks around. The turn is the case 8; one guy bets and gets 4 callers! At this point, I'm wondering how many aces are in the deck!
The river brings an Ace for a 5-way chop. At showdown, the turn bettor was the only one with an ace! I guess that would not technically be a 'bad beat' since he won a share of the pot, but still...
If you ever want to travel back to the glory days, limit omaha hi at Boulder station. Plenty of 8 way flops. Pretty much every time there is a hand where I can only guess what people are calling with.
Flop, JhJd3c. Bet. Call, call, call, call.
Me: wut.
I'm sitting with an $800 stack I built up from $300. I'm UTG with QQ so I limp in since i'm fairly confident someone will bump it up. Sure enough, the loose aggressive player makes it $30, a caller or two come along once it gets back to me and I make it $120. The LAP thinks for a minute and calls, the rest of the players fold. Flop comes J 10 4 rainbow and I shove(the loose aggressive player does know I'm capable of buffing) He gets a chip count on me and decides to call. I turn over my hand, but he doesn't. I wonder if I'm fading AK ss. The turn is a King. I'm still hopeful since he didn't seem to like that card. The river come a queen. He's still not turning over his hand so it seems as if he doesn't have an AK after all, and I will scoop the pot but then the guy seems to notice his 99 actually made a straight and turns it over. I rebuy and continue to play until he left.
That's what you get for leaving out with a stone-cold nuts 👨.Quote: DRichI turned a Royal Flush the other day against two players and they both folded to a small bet. It wasn't a bad beat, but it felt like one.
$2-$2 NL at the local card room (I have no idea why it's $2-$2 and not $1-$2 like the rest of the world, but that's for another thread). I'm in middle position and see 67o. Everyone limps to me, so what the hell it was a fairly passive table, I throw in $2 and everyone else limps to the button, who raises to... $5! Everyone calls the extra $3 and we see a flop: 4c5c8x!!
SB bets out, early position raises all-in (he had a short stack), and it folds to me. I have the nuts for now, but I'm pretty sure I have to dodge clubs or a paired board, possibly both. I make the call. It folds around to the button who goes all in. He had SB and me covered, so we're all-in 4 handed after the flop.
The turn is a club (I'm pretty sure I'm beaten now) and the river is another club to remove all doubt. However, I did just improve my hand to a flush since I was holding the 7c. Yay! :/
Showdown: SB flips up 55, early position flips up 44, I show my baby flush, thinking I may have a chance, and the button flips up 88! For a split second, I think my hand is good, but then I see one of his 8's is a club! :P
In hindsight, I was a pretty big favorite to win on the flop since my 3 opponents held each others' outs. As it turned out, I only had to dodge 3 outs on the turn and 13 on the river. Not bad odds for a 4-way pot.
Oh, well, I guess I at least got to see a hand that had straight over set over set over set on the flop. You certainly don't see that every day. I'd say, "What are the odds?" but around here, that statement is not taken rhetorically! ;)
Quote: DeucekiesEverybody who has ever played poker has had The World's Worst Bad Beat at one point or another. The phrase hardly means anything anymore.
That said, this bad beat is pretty gnarly.
Player 1: Qc9c
Player 2: JTs
Flop: 9s9hQs
Player 1 has flopped a full house while Player 2 has flopped and open-ended straight flush draw. They get it all in for a $400,000 pot, and they agree to run it twice.
Turn and river #1: Ac8s
Player 2 catches one of his two outs to make the straight flush. Sick, but hardly unheard of. Lucky for Player 1, they have agreed to run it twice.
Turn #2: Ks
Player 2 yahtzees his one remaining out to collect both shares of the pot.
Catching a two-outer is one thing, but catching BOTH of them? Whoa nelly.
What are you guys sitting around for? Let's figure this out!
Personally, I think he should have popped the AK Royal for style points, though it doesn't change the result. What we are going to do is figure out the probability of him catching a straight flush on both runs.
The Math
First of all, he could fail by not catching the straight flush in the initial run. We know going in of seven cards, which leaves 45 of which two give the straight flush. The probability of missing both on the first run is:
(43/45 * 42/44) = 0.91212121212
Another way to fail would have been to catch Ks 8s on the first run. If this happens, he wins the first run, but loses any chance of hitting a straight flush on the second run:
(2/45 * 1/44) = 0.00101010101
Okay, now we can verify by determining the probability of catching one card and missing the other:
(2/45 * 43/44) + (43/45 * 2/44) = 0.08686868686
0.08686868686+0.00101010101+0.91212121212 = 0.99999999999
Therefore, we conclude that he had a probability of 8.68686868687% to catch the first straight flush, but NOT with the king and the eight. Would you have guessed that high?
PART 2
The first thing that we are going to do is carry over our earlier probability of 0.08686868686 because the two events are dependent upon each other. This second part is actually quite simple because we have 43 remaining cards, one 'good,' card and can just do this:
1 - (42/43 * 41/42) = 0.0465116279
Thereby resulting in a probability of 4.65116279% of catching it with one card or the other. We can verify:
(1/43) + (42/43 * 1/42) = 0.0465116279
Yup.
Okay, so the two events are not independent, so now we multiply the probabilities together to get our final probability for the overall outcome:
0.0465116279 * 0.08686868686 = 0.00404040403 or 1/0.00404040403 = 1 in 247.5
I suppose the big disclaimer here is that the situation has to exist to begin with, but that's going to get pretty far in the weeds and isn't really a specific question. Do you want to know this specific situation? Do the ranks have to be specific? Do the suits have to be specific?
But, the situation being what it was when both players shoved, the player with the draw had a 1 in 247.5 chance of catching it on both hands.
I still think he should have also picked up the ace on the one with the king, but nobody's perfect.
BONUS STUFF
Since we've come this far, let's go ahead and figure it all out.
One thing we are missing is the probability of him also missing the second straight flush attempt, we did him missing the first one.
(41/43 * 40/42) = 0.90808416389
Okay, so the probability of him missing both:
0.90808416389 * 0.91212121212 = 0.82828282827
The probability of him getting both was 0.00404040403
Therefore, the probability of him getting one or the other: 1 - (0.82828282827+0.00404040403) = 0.1676767677
You can also verify missing both just by doing this: (43/45 * 42/44 * 41/43 * 40/42) = 0.82828282828
Full House Holds: 0.82828282828
Split Pot: 0.1676767677
Draw Wins Both: 0.00404040403
Since people seem to be using this thread to tell bad beat stories, I guess I’ll tell mine (though I hate bad beat stories).
Mine isn’t the worst % wise but it stung.
WSOP ME in 2004. After the dinner break day 1. Lyle Berman is at my table. I had mixed it up with him in two recent pots. One of which I check raise bluffed and showed.
I have AQs UTG and raise. He calls from the hijack and everyone else folds. Flop Q72 rainbow. I check. He bets about pot and I check raise. He tanks then moves in. Now I’m a bit worried he hit a set. Possibly he flatted with an overpair pre, but it didn’t fit with how he had been playing. I reluctantly call for my stack (he had me covered).
Lyle says “good call, thought I caught you bluffing again” and tables 89s. Of course it runs out 6 then 5 to give him a runner runner straight.
Quote: DeucekiesEverybody who has ever played poker has had The World's Worst Bad Beat at one point or another. The phrase hardly means anything anymore.
That said, this bad beat is pretty gnarly.
Player 1: Qc9c
Player 2: JTs
Flop: 9s9hQs
Player 1 has flopped a full house while Player 2 has flopped and open-ended straight flush draw. They get it all in for a $400,000 pot, and they agree to run it twice.
Turn and river #1: Ac8s
Player 2 catches one of his two outs to make the straight flush. Sick, but hardly unheard of. Lucky for Player 1, they have agreed to run it twice.
Turn #2: Ks
Player 2 yahtzees his one remaining out to collect both shares of the pot.
Catching a two-outer is one thing, but catching BOTH of them? Whoa nelly.
If I flop a Fh, no way I am running it twice. It's either 1 or 3. I am either taking it all or taking 2/3 when I am that far ahead.
Quote: GWAE
If I flop a Fh, no way I am running it twice. It's either 1 or 3. I am either taking it all or taking 2/3 when I am that far ahead.
Or 1/3rd as would have been the case here.
Quote: Mission146Or 1/3rd as would have been the case here.
Well yes should have added that. You know there are are a few hands going to win. If you are willing to run it more then I am guaranteeing myself some return
Quote: GWAE
If I flop a Fh, no way I am running it twice. It's either 1 or 3. I am either taking it all or taking 2/3 when I am that far ahead.
I'm glad you mentioned that. I too would have wanted three draws if anything, and was surprised the Villain didn't do the same.
I've never really be on the giving or receiving end of anything beyond terrible but I was on a table where the flop was 3, 4 suited and an unsuited ace. Long story short in the end guy number 1 lost with quad aces to the other guy who filled in the small straight flush. All in, Mr. Quads threw the tantrum that day.
I was in a small tournament -about 90 people. Two tables left and we are on the bubble and I was 2nd big stack, the big stack was on my left.
Six players at our table. Big stack (villain) is UTG and opens with ALL IN. I have been sitting near villain the whole tournament and he has been very aggressive, pushing people around. I strongly suspect he is light on his all in.
The table folds around to me, in the big blind. I peek at my cards and see AA. I go ALL IN. Remember, I am 2nd big stack vs. first big stack and we are on the bubble.
Villain turns over A6o. The table gasps as I turn over AA. I am elated - I am about to gain an enormous lead over the field.
And the flop comes 966.
I prayed for an Ace that never came on the turn and river. I lose and am out, missing the money.
Quote: gordonm888This is not the worst beat of all time but the circumstances made this really hurt.
I was in a small tournament -about 90 people. Two tables left and we are on the bubble and I was 2nd big stack, the big stack was on my left.
Six players at our table. Big stack (villain) is UTG and opens with ALL IN. I have been sitting near villain the whole tournament and he has been very aggressive, pushing people around. I strongly suspect he is light on his all in.
The table folds around to me, in the big blind. I peek at my cards and see AA. I go ALL IN. Remember, I am 2nd big stack vs. first big stack and we are on the bubble.
Villain turns over A6o. The table gasps as I turn over AA. I am elated - I am about to gain an enormous lead over the field.
And the flop comes 966.
I prayed for an Ace that never came on the turn and river. I lose and am out, missing the money.
Sounds like you were playing with Postle😂
