PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
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Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabsRomes
July 21st, 2019 at 10:30:59 AM permalink
A couple things:
If you fold the AA you wouldn’t be up against one player with a 8x stack they would fill your table with players from other tables or more likely they would break the table with only two players and move both of you to open seats on other tables.

Axel mentioned the ability to enter more tournaments. Just because there are more tournaments where you think you’re a winner doesn’t mean that you should punt this one. Getting it in with 25% chance of winning is just wrong.

A couple people have mentioned that you will likely be up against someone with the other two aces. This is very unlikely as it is very hard for someone to have AA when you hold two of them already. Honestly if 9 people ever went all in on the first hand it wouldn’t be because they all have all in hands it would be more logical that they are all just going all in as part of a pre arranged decision to go all in on the first hand. It is more likely that everyone has two random cards then that they all have good hands.

The last point was that it would be smart to fold if during the first hand two players went all in during the WSOP main. I disagree completely because there first off would have been multiple raises and you would have chips in the pot already. Also against two most likely top end hands you are about 70% to win the pot. Against exactly two suited connector hands where you have neither of the suits in your hand the other two players suited connecters don’t overlap each other you are still 58% in this ridiculously unlikely scenario. To sum up you are going to be about 70% to have a 3x starting stack, I call in this scenario 100% of the time.

I hope I’ve explained this well.
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Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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July 21st, 2019 at 11:01:10 AM permalink
Axl was saying it might be like a sit n go. What if it was a 2 table SnG? 3?

So let's say it goes fold/fold/fold/all in/all in/all in... where is your calling point in a decent sized tourney. I.e how many all ins would you call?


Quote: SOOPOO

I think I like Gordon's response. Something fishy must be going on for the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th guys going all in.

This is sort of like the question of would you bet on a yo after 17 yo's in a row. The premise is so outlandish you can't rationally answer the question.

I'd say a better question to ask a more realistic question, like would you go in first hand of WSOP main event if two people shoved first hand and you have AA in big blind? A novice like me would call. Negreanu, Chan, Hellmuth instafold. They know over time they can beat most tables. I know over time I get beaten.



There are a lot of unbelievably bad players in the WSOP. But there are also way more excellent players than there used to be.

I'm speculating, as I don't follow these things well. But I'd guess at least the top 1,000 players are not separated by all that much.

So, even as a top player, you still need to beat a lot of people who either you have a small edge against, or who have an edge on you. You can't really pass up big edges, in my estimation. Though I dislike tourneys and don't know the strat very well.

I'd be disinclined to ever fold AA pre myself. While I'm better, even at tourneys, than some rando, those top 1,000 would all be better than me by a decent margin.

Also, I think Axel's point is valid. Tourneys consume, not only a lot of time but a lot of mental, emotional and physical energy. If you fold AA, then play the tourney for 2 days, then bust out, you've lost 2 full days of work and really 3 or 4 probably because you'll likely need a day off.

I'd be much more likely to fold AA in a scenario like this on the final table if I was short. Like, if I was pretty much guaranteed to jump 4 spots in the pay table or something.

A factor in that is that I give zero effs about winning or getting a bracelet or whatever.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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Rigondeaux
July 21st, 2019 at 2:06:54 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

This is very unlikely as it is very hard for someone to have AA when you hold two of them already.

Mathematically yes, its unlikely when dealing with random hands. At this point we are no longer be dealing with just mathematics. It's no longer just a random hand, everyone actually has the information about their hand. It's much more likely if somebody's actually willing to put all their chips in on their first hand that they do in fact have the other Aces. The question may no longer be is it mathematically probable they have the other aces, but does it make logical sense if someone has the other aces. Does this not make sense?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GWAE
GWAE
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July 21st, 2019 at 2:15:25 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Axl was saying it might be like a sit n go. What if it was a 2 table SnG? 3?

So let's say it goes fold/fold/fold/all in/all in/all in... where is your calling point in a decent sized tourney. I.e how many all ins would you call?




There are a lot of unbelievably bad players in the WSOP. But there are also way more excellent players than there used to be.

I'm speculating, as I don't follow these things well. But I'd guess at least the top 1,000 players are not separated by all that much.

So, even as a top player, you still need to beat a lot of people who either you have a small edge against, or who have an edge on you. You can't really pass up big edges, in my estimation. Though I dislike tourneys and don't know the strat very well.

I'd be disinclined to ever fold AA pre myself. While I'm better, even at tourneys, than some rando, those top 1,000 would all be better than me by a decent margin.

Also, I think Axel's point is valid. Tourneys consume, not only a lot of time but a lot of mental, emotional and physical energy. If you fold AA, then play the tourney for 2 days, then bust out, you've lost 2 full days of work and really 3 or 4 probably because you'll likely need a day off.

I'd be much more likely to fold AA in a scenario like this on the final table if I was short. Like, if I was pretty much guaranteed to jump 4 spots in the pay table or something.

A factor in that is that I give zero effs about winning or getting a bracelet or whatever.



About 3 weeks ago on a 1/3 cash game I had QQ and it went something like this fold, fold, fold, raise to 10, I raise to 40, all in for about 100, fold, all in for a few hundred , big stack of the table calls the 250ish in big blind. $10 raiser called his last 70 or so. Action on me, I am looking at these bets. It is a 6 way pot with multiple side pots. I am like WTF and muck my QQ. turns out it was AA, vs AK suited, vs small pocket pair, vs garbage like 8 ten, and JJ. the 8-10 won part of the pot with a straight and JJ in the big blind won most of it with flopped trips.

Hands like this happen occasionally but never seen a 9 way all in.
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michael99000
michael99000
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July 21st, 2019 at 4:11:34 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

It's much more likely if somebody's actually willing to put all their chips in on their first hand that they do in fact have the other Aces.



But then you’re also saying 7 other people all were willing to put all their money in the pot, and none of them had even one ace.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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July 21st, 2019 at 6:20:55 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

But then you’re also saying 7 other people all were willing to put all their money in the pot, and none of them had even one ace.

That's a good point. I guess it would really depend on how the action went down. Somebody mention the odds of the aces winning in a multi-way hand. Is that number based off random hands? Was anybody thinking that in a situation like this you're going to be up against hands like 9:10 suited. I would certainly like to have somebody calculate a situation with probable hands that could come up where everybody would go all in. In that case you might be in a situation where people are practically drawing dead. We can start to assume everyone's holding combinations of Aces, Kings , Queens, and Jacks.
The entire hand seems mathematically improbable for everybody willing to risk all their chips on the first hand.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MDawg
MDawg
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July 22nd, 2019 at 2:05:48 PM permalink
This happens all the time in online apps with no real money at stake it's like a merry go round of silly players going all in before the flop no matter what two crappy cards they have, or after the flop going all in on inside straight draws, etc.
Gandler
Gandler
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July 29th, 2019 at 4:29:52 PM permalink
Folding would guarantee that you stay in while at least 8 others get eliminated. Easy fold for a tournament.

If it is a cash game, and you felt like gambling for the big pot, then it would be a huge gamble, but you could make the case for it, still probably fold.
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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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July 29th, 2019 at 4:33:36 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

Folding would guarantee that you stay in while at least 8 others get eliminated. Easy fold for a tournament.

If it is a cash game, and you felt like gambling for the big pot, then it would be a huge gamble, but you could make the case for it, still probably fold.

I can't see any good logic for doing this in cash game. I guess if you're short on bankrolling this is going to bust you and you can't play anymore it might be the right thing.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mission146
Mission146 
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July 29th, 2019 at 5:09:52 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I can't see any good logic for doing this in cash game. I guess if you're short on bankrolling this is going to bust you and you can't play anymore it might be the right thing.



Yeah, I don't really have to get into any sophisticated (or unsophisticated) math to know the pot odds are on my side with this one. No matter how you cut it, if everyone has an equal amount of money and I have AA, I would be expected to profit.

As far as the tournament is concerned, I would still call it, but that's probably why I'm not a poker player. I like the potential advantage that such a stack early on would give me in being able to shove other players around.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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