future projection ?
bb /100 is likely to be after say 15k hands.
Quote: gary55If You were say plus 10 BB/100 After 6000 hands is there a formula or way to project what your
bb /100 is likely to be after say 15k hands.
Yes. But you are not going to like it.
Only a fool makes predictions.Quote: OnceDearYes. But you are not going to like it.
Quote: TheGrimReaper13Only a fool makes predictions.
Yea I am such a fool I have been in plus land for 80% of all the poker hands I ever played....go figure
Quote: TheGrimReaper13Only a fool makes predictions.
I would have to agree with you on this. But, I think what he may be looking for is probability, not prediction. No one can predict anything but there are probability factors in everything. Of course, even raw probability has its own chaos interwoven in a subjective haze.
Theoretical physicists "apply" the word "sea" for that. Eg, sea quarks, where one thing blends into another. Anyway, I guess that randomness is even stranger than probability.Quote: JoelDezeOf course, even raw probability has its own chaos interwoven in a subjective haze.
Laplace wrote that if an unknown coin fall heads, then the chance of heads on the next flip is greater than or equal to 1/2. So carry on, Gary. However, Thorp wrote that it takes a hell of a lot of data to determine which of two games is the better when the difference is likely quite small. So show some caution, Gary.
I was playing around above with OnceDear because I thought he was being a bit facetious. Not his nature.
P.S. My motto in high school was "leave nothing to chance".
My motto in high school was, and remains, a seacret ;-)Quote: TheGrimReaper13Theoretical physicists "apply" the word "sea" for that.
P.S. My motto in high school was "leave nothing to chance".
Quote: OnceDearYes. But you are not going to like it.
I was not being facetious, though that is indeed in my nature :o)
So here's a formula for Gary's projection. It's only an estimate of course.
He plays his 6000 hands and at the end of those 6000 hands, he finds that he has a bankroll $x
He intends to play 15.000 hands in total.
We can project pretty precisely that he will play another 9,000 hands. That's the sum total of the projective value of his scheme.
He could decide explicitly what the average value of each of those 9,000 wagers will be. He'd be wise to do so to eliminate an unnecessary variable. Let the average wager be 'w'. He can look up the house edge for his game of choice. Let House edge be the fractional value 'h' He can look up the standard deviation value for one wager for this game of choice. Let that be 's'
Therefore
After those next 9,000 hands, his bankroll will be (x - 9000 . h . w) ± (9000)^0.5 x (s) * (w)
with 68% probability and with a lower limit of $0 if he goes bust.
That's not one calculated value. It's a range of values with a mean that is less than he starts his 9000 roll session.
I.e. probably less than you have at the 6,000 hand stage. Whoop-de-doo for the power of projection.
The short answer is that such a calculation is very difficult because luck plays a significant role in your results to date. You could easily be at 4BB/100 or 15BB/100 instead and we don't really know where you'd be with "average" luck.
The other problem is that game conditions change all the time, so what has happened thus far might have been in a different world than what is to come.
Quote: MrGoldenSunIs this NLHE? If so, do you have any stats on your variance?
The short answer is that such a calculation is very difficult because luck plays a significant role in your results to date. You could easily be at 4BB/100 or 15BB/100 instead and we don't really know where you'd be with "average" luck.
The other problem is that game conditions change all the time, so what has happened thus far might have been in a different world than what is to come.
Much depends on what the game is. If it's a game of chance ( counting BlackJack and Baccarat as games of chance,) then the past is a different world to the future. there would be zero reason to believe that past good luck will have momentum to maintain more of the same in the future.
If it's a game of skill, on the other hand, where you can simply be the better player, then you'd have to work out your player advantage based on your average profit per hand.
Quote: OnceDearMuch depends on what the game is. If it's a game of chance ( counting BlackJack and Baccarat as games of chance,) then the past is a different world to the future. there would be zero reason to believe that past good luck will have momentum to maintain more of the same in the future.
No not table games. It was Traditional Texas Hold Em vs Other Players.
It might be a poor analogy but I thought it might be something like time of possession in
a football game.
If You see that Teams that have had the ball Over 62% of the time often translates to teams that Typically have
winning records THEN BY PROXY the stat could be of value.
This was a concept that was found laughable or even hard to grasp in Poker Forums on other sights.
But Then Again most Poker Players dont hold Phds right.
(1) We don't actually know your expected win rate with much confidence. You have won at 10BB/100 thus far but your "true" rate could be much different. But let's say it's 10, which is quite good.
(2) We don't know your standard deviation. I'd just pick 80BB/100 since I think that's reasonable.
(3) We don't know how the future will be different from the past. This to me is the biggest challenge. Maybe in the past you were playing against some fish who are now broke, which means your expectation is lower than we'd expect. Or maybe other players are getting better. But YOU may also be getting better. And maybe there will be some whale who moves to your neighborhood.
Anyway, you can use http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ to run simulations if you want.
Yes. No strategy is complete until it maps out also itself, and as goes along. Under the category of "add a few variables to simplify the whole thing". Play it by ear, even. Just have a strategy. You ALWAYS do better with ANY strategy.Quote: MrGoldenSunRight, but the problems in trying to estimate it here are:
(1) We don't actually know your expected win rate with much confidence. You have won at 10BB/100 thus far but your "true" rate could be much different. But let's say it's 10, which is quite good.
(2) We don't know your standard deviation. I'd just pick 80BB/100 since I think that's reasonable.
(3) We don't know how the future will be different from the past. This to me is the biggest challenge. Maybe in the past you were playing against some fish who are now broke, which means your expectation is lower than we'd expect. Or maybe other players are getting better. But YOU may also be getting better. And maybe there will be some whale who moves to your neighborhood.
Anyway, you can use http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ to run simulations if you want.
I have tried multiple strategies, with multiple results. Just to save everyone some time, you should avoid that 'lose as much as you can as fast as you can' strategy. The measly comps don't make it AP ;-)Quote: TheGrimReaper13Yes. No strategy is complete until it maps out also itself, and as goes along. Under the category of "add a few variables to simplify the whole thing". Play it by ear, even. Just have a strategy. You ALWAYS do better with ANY strategy.
