What are the odds

Well into the final table (Texas Hold 'em) the other night, there were 7 at the table. I'm first to act with pocket jacks. My bet is 4X the blind. I get 2 calls. The flop is J 10 10. The big blind checked and I made the same bet. I got just one call. I had to put the player on a jack or maybe J 10. The turn is a 10. There's no straight, a bad flush draw, and not much else. I figure the player is pot committed, I moved all in. She called.
We showed our hands. The other player shows Ace 5 of hearts.... nothing but the nut flush draw. Now, she's a pretty good player, but takes an unusual joy in beating me.
At this point, there is one card in the deck that can beat me and out comes the case 10 on the river.....
What ARE the odds?

Will happen close to 3% of the time. Poker is a grind.

One guy told me the odds are roughly 47,000:1It's actually the second time I've flopped a boat and lost to 4 of a kind by someone who should never have called the bet.

She turned trips. You have 2 cards, the board has 4 cards, and you also saw the third players hand when folded that did not contain a ten.
52 - 8= 44. Right there she has a 1 in 44 chance of the river being the 10.

Where was this at?

She could have been over playing pocket queens, kings, or aces. The river could have been one of those. To showdown your smoked here 1 in 4 times.

I would bet a stranger 2 to 1 that she caught that 10 from your slow playing the flopped boat, trying to trap.

Quote: ErnieS

...At this point, there is one card in the deck that can beat me and out comes the case 10 on the river.....
What ARE the odds?

It's a cooler. If you play poker seriously you'll have this happen what 'seems like' a lot.

Max is correct... 52-8 = 44 cards remaining. All other unseen cards are not counted. Thus there's 1 final 10 in the deck... 1/44 is her odds of pulling the card she needs to win. 1/44 = 2.3%.

I was on the good side of that once playing 3-6 Limit at Horseshoe Southern Indiana. I had pocket 8's in the caboose. UTG raises everyone folds to me I re-raise. goes to the limit.Flop came K88. We both raise to the limits all the way to the river. He had pocket K's.

I don't know a ton about poker, but if I am holding a full boat after the flop and I am thinking you bet more than 4x. Since she is committed with 8x the blind she must be figuring that you didn't hold a 10 or J and was holding an A. You went all in and she probably figured what the hell. And she got lucky.

It was at a game at a bar I own in Alabama. We pay 2 tournaments on Monday and Wednesday. $20 buy ins.

Yes, she turned trips, but had to think I at the very least, had a jack 10's full. A river ace would beat that, but there's a what? a 6% chance of catching the low boat?
It was a stupid call, that I actually wanted her to make.

Quote: ErnieS

...It was a stupid call, that I actually want her to make.

Fixed that for you =p...

Quote: MaxPen

She could have been over playing pocket queens, kings, or aces. The river could have been one of those. To showdown your smoked here 1 in 4 times.

I would bet a stranger 2 to 1 that she caught that 10 from your slow playing the flopped boat, trying to trap.

I made the same bet I did pre flop. I wanted her chips and figured that was all I would get. I know her well enough to know that if she had an over pair, she was all in; one or two 10's... all in. She called. I knew I was way ahead at that point.


But runner runner 10's???? whodathunk?

Quote: ncfatcat

I was on the good side of that once playing 3-6 Limit at Horseshoe Southern Indiana. I had pocket 8's in the caboose. UTG raises everyone folds to me I re-raise. goes to the limit.Flop came K88. We both raise to the limits all the way to the river. He had pocket K's.

Robl vs Lewis...

https://youtu.be/EKh0_rQhCpY

Ouch, I avoid slow-playing when I flop a monster for this reason. When you bet 4bb on the flop (1/3 pot), she was faced with wagering 4bb to win 20, which more than justifies her pot odds of hitting the nut flush on the turn or river (~1 in 3).

A pot-sized bet would make her think more carefully, but there is no answer for the running quads eventuality.