Bonus payments?
June 15th, 2010 at 6:43:53 PM
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A West Virginia casino where I occasionally play has a Hold 'Em promo that pays extra when a pocket pair hits quads or suited connectors make a straight flush. The payouts reset as they are hit, so the various combinations have different values.
My question is: How much should you consider the bonus when deciding whether to call or raise?
In my case, I had 5-6 suited in early position at a 1-2 NL game. I limped in, as did probably 5 others before the Big Blind raised to $10. He had been playing pretty tight, and several players were yet to act behind me. I folded, and you can guess how the hand played out. I would have made the straight flush. I checked the payoff board, just to make myself feel worse. The suited 5-6 was the third highest bonus payout, at $360. That would have been in addition to whatever the pot was worth.
Is there a way to figure out when the bonus is high enough that playing a marginal hand is a good decision?
Thanks for any guidance.
Bluechip
My question is: How much should you consider the bonus when deciding whether to call or raise?
In my case, I had 5-6 suited in early position at a 1-2 NL game. I limped in, as did probably 5 others before the Big Blind raised to $10. He had been playing pretty tight, and several players were yet to act behind me. I folded, and you can guess how the hand played out. I would have made the straight flush. I checked the payoff board, just to make myself feel worse. The suited 5-6 was the third highest bonus payout, at $360. That would have been in addition to whatever the pot was worth.
Is there a way to figure out when the bonus is high enough that playing a marginal hand is a good decision?
Thanks for any guidance.
Bluechip
June 15th, 2010 at 6:57:09 PM
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Well the immediate call is 8 to win 22 which is almost enough to call with any two, especially since you'll have position.
Now factor in it's 1/2 and that the 5 others behind you are calling 95% of the time, you're really putting in $8 to win $62 and it really is any two cards has to call there.
Now factor in it's 1/2 and that the 5 others behind you are calling 95% of the time, you're really putting in $8 to win $62 and it really is any two cards has to call there.
August 3rd, 2010 at 9:51:00 AM
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Looking at the board should have cheered you up, $360 is a pretty chitzy bonus. There could very well be a pot that size in that game, I'm not really seeing the jackpot factor here. Hell, your expected value on it is probably less than a blind, which you can easily save by not playing the marginal hand.
One thing that's difficult to quantify is worth bearing in mind. In this kind of promotion you may have to show down the hand to qualify. It's going to take a special breed of player to stay in the hand with three to a straight flush on the board. If you have to slow down to do it, you're back to the paltry amount of the jackpot. If you're making small bets to guarentee your $360 you're going to be pretty pissed when the nut flush announces how glad he is he didn't stack off his last $450. [Though less pissed than you'd be if you made your hand and found out he had TJs.]
It seems to me the bonus would be better at extreme stack sizes than normal ones. When you're very short you'll be pushing the qualifying hands anyway (thus mooting the showdown) so the bonus is gravy. If everyone is very deep then you'll want to play the marginal hands in position anyway.
To decide if the bonus is high enough is probably straightforward. I thin it's a fair assumption that a qualifying hand will win the pot, so you'd simply add your equity in the bonus to your implied odds. That's going to need to be a pretty gargantuan bonus though. Holding a pair you have a .24% chance to flop quads so a $360 jackpot is worth about $0.86 if you're going to dump them when you miss. It's worth more if you go to the river, but I think it unlikely it would compensate you for the amount you'd lose on later streets.
One thing that's difficult to quantify is worth bearing in mind. In this kind of promotion you may have to show down the hand to qualify. It's going to take a special breed of player to stay in the hand with three to a straight flush on the board. If you have to slow down to do it, you're back to the paltry amount of the jackpot. If you're making small bets to guarentee your $360 you're going to be pretty pissed when the nut flush announces how glad he is he didn't stack off his last $450. [Though less pissed than you'd be if you made your hand and found out he had TJs.]
It seems to me the bonus would be better at extreme stack sizes than normal ones. When you're very short you'll be pushing the qualifying hands anyway (thus mooting the showdown) so the bonus is gravy. If everyone is very deep then you'll want to play the marginal hands in position anyway.
To decide if the bonus is high enough is probably straightforward. I thin it's a fair assumption that a qualifying hand will win the pot, so you'd simply add your equity in the bonus to your implied odds. That's going to need to be a pretty gargantuan bonus though. Holding a pair you have a .24% chance to flop quads so a $360 jackpot is worth about $0.86 if you're going to dump them when you miss. It's worth more if you go to the river, but I think it unlikely it would compensate you for the amount you'd lose on later streets.
August 3rd, 2010 at 10:20:55 AM
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Quote: alexanboWell the immediate call is 8 to win 22 which is almost enough to call with any two, especially since you'll have position.
Now factor in it's 1/2 and that the 5 others behind you are calling 95% of the time, you're really putting in $8 to win $62 and it really is any two cards has to call there.
And the times when one of the other limpers puts in a large 3 bet and he's forced into folding? He said early position, it's an easy fold.
In individual hands, you should always make the best possible decision for the hand itself, irrespective of any bonus. Since the jackpot drop is basically a rake, high hand bonuses are just a form of rakeback.
