My thoughts on defending blinds. Would like feedback

I think the common conception when it comes to defending blinds is something as follows: Look at your pot odds and your hand. And then evaluate your opponent's raising range (or calling range to if others call) and see how your hand's pot odds do against them. If you have favorable pot odds you should call.

AFAIK this concept originated from David slanski and is commonly accepted. However I have a problem with it and I'd like to hear what you guys think about the way I think about this.

First of all let me say that I'm no expert in poker but I am good at math. So throughout my poker playing, I have observed that not only myself, but many people, in many different poker environments with many different styles of play seem to have this one situation that comes up over and over. I will describe this scenario.

Note this is no-limit holdem. Obviously this won't apply to limit and somewhat apply to pot limit.

Once a hand gets in action, often it will consume a player's entire stack.

The size of the pot grows exponentially instead of linearly.

Often a hand starts at just the minimum with 2 blinds in and actions roll back and forth very few amount of times and both players (or more) are all in.

I can not count the amount of the times where I have a hand like AQ to a Qxx flop, I raise, and end up being all in by the river with someone and lose to flush, 2 pair, straight, set, etc. What am I supposed to do, fold? If i'm supposed to fold then what am I even doing entering the flop with AQ? Isn't Qxx the flop I wanted to see with that hand? I'd like to just keep the pot linear instead of exponential so that a winning hand remains a winning hand.

Now, let's get back to the defending blinds issue, and my thoughts on that.

So by conventional thinking If you hold Q5o on BB, button min raises, SB folds, you should at least call. Because your pot odds are 1:3.5, which only requires your Q5o to win ~22% of the time to justify the call. That should be easily doable against just about any raising range, especially since the raiser was button. You're realistically looking at some ~40% chance of win VS a 22% win necessary.

Let's say in the extreme case, guy raised with AKo. Your call of Q5o by conventional thinking made you a profit of (2+2+0.5)*32.73%-1 = 0.472BB compared to folding.

That is where the problem comes in. I would ONLY agree with the conventional thinking if one player is all in at that point, and no more decisions to be made after the flop.


The 2 main problems I have are:

*You're out-positioned due to being blind

*The AK has implied odds on your entire stack


Now, as we all know being out-positioned is bad. But it's hard to quantify and frankly just the other reason alone is enough in my opinion to justify not defending your blind. So I'll ignore the out-positioned issue for now.


As I've previously stated quite often by the river someone is all-in. And even if they are not all in, quite often they've got a big chunk of their chips in the pot. So, let me just give a very very conservative estimate on this. 10% of the time someone is all in by river, and 20% of the time someone has 50%-99% of their chips in the pot on showdown. Both players have 100BB.

So your Q5o beats AKo 32.73% of the time, and you'll be all-in 10% of the time (200BB pot), half-in or more 20% of the time (100BB pot, conservative estimate), and once again for conservative estimate, assume all other pots are 0, because you're an underdog no matter what, you're just trying not lose more than the 0.472BB you gained from calling the blind raise.

10% 200BB pot + 20% 100BB pot is mathematically equivalent to being forced in a 40BB pot, that is, both of you have 20BB after the flop and you both agree to go all in. Now, your Q5o will lose you 20 - 40*32.73%= 6.91BB


By defending your blind you have gained 0.472BB, sure, but at the same time your entire stack and your opponent's entire stack are at implied-odds-war, which you have a 32.73% chance for any amount that ends up being in the pot. By defending your 0.472BB, you have lost 6.91BB for a net loss of 6.44BB! And I haven't even counted in the out of position issue!

And that is my opinion on the conventional way of thinking for defending your blinds. What are your opinions on that? I'd like some feedback.

In a cash game, I could care less about protecting my blinds, its just a buck or 2.
Early in a tournament, I could care less about protectiong my blinds.
If I go deep into a tournament, the blinds get so high, yea I might protect to see a flop but it depends on so many variables, how many players, where the raise was, how much a raise, chip stack of raiser, my hand strength, my stack size, do I think previous limpers will call the raise , ect

There's a big difference between protecting blinds and seeing a flop for cheap.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

There's a big difference between protecting blinds and seeing a flop for cheap.

I agree. I would say I have only tired to "protect my blinds" in about 5% of cash Vegas games I have ever played in. Those were where someone a seat or two to my right is trying to prove they are a big man by bluffing and stealing. Timidity there will just fold away too much. I want to try to pop them with more marginal cards.

However, cheap flops are excellent. When I'm in the blind, no one knows my range and so I take any posture I want post flop. If I had a problem of frequently losing my whole stack on second best cards after a cheap flop I might reconsider, but I have made way more money limping in the blinds than the costs of those calls and losing with second bests. Also I get more entertainment value.

Tournaments are different. With time pressures not only will I protect my blinds, I will try to steal.

Some of the cash home games I play in I worry about it a bit because of reputations and entertainment value versus costs (low stakes). But those are a different category as far as I'm concerned.

Raw equity numbers are almost always over-stated. Your equity has to be recognizable and realizable.

AT vs. Q5

KJ3 flop - Q5 has 13% equity. It's not recognizable and certainly not realizable - aka you're never willing to put in much money to recognize your 13%.

KJ5 flop - Q5 has 65% equity. Your equity is somewhat recognizable and somewhat realizable - but once again you're probably not willing to get stacks in by the river.

KQT flop - Q5 has 65% equity. Recognizable and realizable but again hard to get anything but shallow stacks in.

So basically my point is that all of the equity stats and graphs for hands are often mis-leading. They show you a lot of equity that you'll never be able to realize.

If you really really want to get into it, this video goes into all the math - http://www.runitonce.com/pro-training/videos/lefort8/ but requires a $100 membership.

Poker is more than blinds, EV, odds etc. You have to make your opponents play loose. Wear diamond rings,splash left and right. You get'em with second best, their own greed becomes their enemy.

Quote: BTLWI

Raw equity numbers are almost always over-stated. Your equity has to be recognizable and realizable.

AT vs. Q5

KJ3 flop - Q5 has 13% equity. It's not recognizable and certainly not realizable - aka you're never willing to put in much money to recognize your 13%.

KJ5 flop - Q5 has 65% equity. Your equity is somewhat recognizable and somewhat realizable - but once again you're probably not willing to get stacks in by the river.

KQT flop - Q5 has 65% equity. Recognizable and realizable but again hard to get anything but shallow stacks in.

So basically my point is that all of the equity stats and graphs for hands are often mis-leading. They show you a lot of equity that you'll never be able to realize.

If you really really want to get into it, this video goes into all the math - http://www.runitonce.com/pro-training/videos/lefort8/ but requires a $100 membership.

Fantastic answer!

Quote: Dicenor33

Poker is more than blinds, EV, odds etc. You have to make your opponents play loose. Wear diamond rings,splash left and right. You get'em with second best, their own greed becomes their enemy.

This is a math forum not a feel forum lol

Quote: Neutrino

This is a math forum not a feel forum lol

Is there a formula for figuring out how to get a player to fold the best hand?
No?
How about getting a player to stay in when they are behind?

Those are places where feelings come in.

Quote: Neutrino

This is a math forum not a feel forum lol

loose means wider range.