Poker trivia question
March 16th, 2014 at 12:29:22 PM
permalink
If you had a 1k bankroll and you continuously had to do coin flips for 1k with AK suited up to 100 thousand flips, what hand do you want to be up against to minimize the odds of going broke? You also have no chance of getting the 1k back if you lose. I know the answer, but my friends tell me I'm wrong.
I want your fast opinion not what the computer says! Lol
I want your fast opinion not what the computer says! Lol
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:41:47 PM
permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
March 16th, 2014 at 12:41:59 PM
permalink
2 7 different suites and not the same as your suit
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
March 16th, 2014 at 1:05:19 PM
permalink
Quote: GWAE2 7 different suites and not the same as your suit
Why different suits? Now he can flush. If he has 27 with your suit he can't make a winning flush.
I'll go for A6o the six being suited with my AK. This way he needs a 2345x board, a six w/o a king or 2/3 6s if a king flops. He can only make the nuts with 666xx, four flushed with his ace, or four to a sf needing his six. His ace almost is useless because he can only use it to push on a TJQKx board or make a winning 4-card flush/sf.
March 16th, 2014 at 1:21:32 PM
permalink
I would like more answers, but I will give mine. I think the only correct answer is AK off suit. You're gonna tie a ton of times, but remember you can't get that money back if you lose. You need to minimize your risk of losing to the max.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
March 16th, 2014 at 1:23:13 PM
permalink
AK off suit
March 16th, 2014 at 1:25:13 PM
permalink
Quote: stargazerAK off suit
Nah. Lol
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
March 16th, 2014 at 2:59:17 PM
permalink
I would guess KQ with the Queen the same suit as you. You will only lose to a Jack high straight on the board. You will also lose to a queen with no Ace or King on the board, but you will win with an Ace an equal number of times. You will lose with a four flush on the board that matches the King, but you will win with your Ace high flush more times. AK off suit allows twice as many losses to four flushes.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
March 16th, 2014 at 3:19:02 PM
permalink
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'll choose A,7 offsuit.
What about A6 offsuit (with the 6 not the same suit as your hand)?
Apparently I'm wrong too.
Quote: Lemieux66I would like more answers, but I will give mine. I think the only correct answer is AK off suit. You're gonna tie a ton of times, but remember you can't get that money back if you lose. You need to minimize your risk of losing to the max.
Yeah, I glossed over the whole one unit beginning statement. AKo is probably better to be up against.
March 16th, 2014 at 3:21:24 PM
permalink
Quote: AyecarumbaI would guess KQ with the Queen the same suit as you. You will only lose to a Jack high straight on the board. You will also lose to a queen with no Ace or King on the board, but you will win with an Ace an equal number of times. You will lose with a four flush on the board that matches the King, but you will win with your Ace high flush more times. AK off suit allows twice as many losses to four flushes.
Queen hits first board and it's all over.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
March 16th, 2014 at 3:28:32 PM
permalink
a9 offsuit, other than AK suit
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
March 16th, 2014 at 4:03:22 PM
permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
March 16th, 2014 at 4:07:18 PM
permalink
it's a9 fellows, trust me
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
March 16th, 2014 at 4:32:00 PM
permalink
Quote: Buzzardit's a9 fellows, trust me
9 flops. Done
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
March 16th, 2014 at 4:36:39 PM
permalink
WOW Really LOL
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
March 16th, 2014 at 4:41:18 PM
permalink
Isn't K2 better than A6? Fewer straights beat you, and it's easier for his paired card to get counterfeited, and you win when 2 pair or 4OAK hit the board, and if you make a straight it can't get counterfeited.
The way that the question was worded, I suspect that AKo is correct but I am too lazy to do the math; also I don't care.
The way that the question was worded, I suspect that AKo is correct but I am too lazy to do the math; also I don't care.
March 16th, 2014 at 5:02:06 PM
permalink
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=432643
pokenum -h as ks - kh 2d
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 1334519 77.94 355400 20.76 22385 1.31 0.786
2d Kh 355400 20.76 1334519 77.94 22385 1.31 0.214
Ignoring the 1.31% chance of a tie, AKs wins 77.94/98.70 = 78.97%.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=11325
pokenum -h as ks - ah kd
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 122556 7.16 37210 2.17 1552538 90.67 0.525
Kd Ah 37210 2.17 122556 7.16 1552538 90.67 0.475
Ignoring the 90.67% chance of a tie, AKs wins 7.16/9.33 = 76.74%
A6o and A9o are not even close.
I would choose to run it 100K times against K2o.
pokenum -h as ks - kh 2d
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 1334519 77.94 355400 20.76 22385 1.31 0.786
2d Kh 355400 20.76 1334519 77.94 22385 1.31 0.214
Ignoring the 1.31% chance of a tie, AKs wins 77.94/98.70 = 78.97%.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=11325
pokenum -h as ks - ah kd
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 122556 7.16 37210 2.17 1552538 90.67 0.525
Kd Ah 37210 2.17 122556 7.16 1552538 90.67 0.475
Ignoring the 90.67% chance of a tie, AKs wins 7.16/9.33 = 76.74%
A6o and A9o are not even close.
I would choose to run it 100K times against K2o.
March 16th, 2014 at 5:02:38 PM
permalink
it's A9 off suits DUH
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
March 16th, 2014 at 5:08:00 PM
permalink
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=38982
pokenum -h as ks - ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 1254987 73.29 380882 22.24 76435 4.46 0.755
Ad 9h 380882 22.24 1254987 73.29 76435 4.46 0.245
76.72% chance of winning. Not even close.
pokenum -h as ks - ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 1254987 73.29 380882 22.24 76435 4.46 0.755
Ad 9h 380882 22.24 1254987 73.29 76435 4.46 0.245
76.72% chance of winning. Not even close.
March 16th, 2014 at 5:57:34 PM
permalink
Quote: chaunceyb3
I would choose to run it 100K times against K2o.
Wow, I forgot about K2o for equity dominance, man, I'm off today. But keep in mind you only have one-buyin to start with according to the OP, so when you lose the first flip, you lose the bet. Playing AKo lets you have a near "freeroll". You'll only lose that first hand 2.17% of the time vs. 20.76% for K2o.
March 16th, 2014 at 6:16:13 PM
permalink
Quote: tringlomaneWow, I forgot about K2o for equity dominance, man, I'm off today. But keep in mind you only have one-buyin to start with according to the OP, so when you lose the first flip, you lose the bet. Playing AKo lets you have a near "freeroll". You'll only lose that first hand 2.17% of the time vs. 20.76% for K2o.
As Chauncey pointed out, you win more non-ties vs K2 than vs AK.
So K2 is the best choice no matter what. You win WAY more money at the end, and you have less chance of going broke.
March 16th, 2014 at 7:06:41 PM
permalink
I figure one needs the best chance to win the first hand, else its too late too early. The OP wants AKs. Give it to him
And the villain gets...
Suited 2 +King.
Editted from 2-3 suited matching A-K... I wasnt thinking POKER, where villain getting counterfeited King is bad news for villain.
And the villain gets...
Suited 2 +King.
Editted from 2-3 suited matching A-K... I wasnt thinking POKER, where villain getting counterfeited King is bad news for villain.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
March 16th, 2014 at 8:03:02 PM
permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAs Chauncey pointed out, you win more non-ties vs K2 than vs AK.
and you have less chance of going broke.
Yep, but it's pretty close on the "going broke" part. I had to "do the math" to be convinced.
March 16th, 2014 at 8:12:08 PM
permalink
Quote: Lemieux66Queen hits first board and it's all over.
But an Ace should hit the board first just as often. In the end it should wash.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
March 16th, 2014 at 8:16:01 PM
permalink
This thread is educational for me.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
March 16th, 2014 at 8:19:50 PM
permalink
If it's K2 off, it's K2 off. Just the one that is the lowest odds of going broke early.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
March 16th, 2014 at 8:46:44 PM
permalink
Quote: Lemieux66If it's K2 off, it's K2 off. Just the one that is the lowest odds of going broke early.
Risk of Ruin (for infinite trials - 100,000 trials is virtually the same. Once you pass the first so many trials, you're likely going to succeed):
AKs vs. K2o: 26.63%
AKs vs. AKo: 30.36%
March 16th, 2014 at 8:51:52 PM
permalink
the gain in equity from going against k2o just outweighs everything else.
March 16th, 2014 at 9:30:13 PM
permalink
Quote: tringlomaneYep, but it's pretty close on the "going broke" part. I had to "do the math" to be convinced.
I figured that 100k hands was enough that the fewer ties wouldn't matter (once you are far enough ahead, it really makes very little difference -- you are such a huge favorite that once you are up 10 or 20 bets your chances of going broke are essentially nil)
At least, that's my intuition (once I saw the percent chances per hand). I felt that the 2% extra chance of winning each of the first few decisions was worth a lot more than the advantage gained from playing fewer non-tied rounds.
Is my intuition wrong? Is it really that close?
edit: I saw your numbers. That is not close!
March 16th, 2014 at 9:40:05 PM
permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
edit: I saw your numbers. That is not close!
It's not super close by the numbers, but if AKs vs. AKo actually gave a distribution of Win: 8% Tie: 90% Loss: 2%, instead of the actual 7.16%/90.67%/2.17%, then it would only have a 25% RoR. So I don't think it's that intuitive. At least it's not to me.
March 16th, 2014 at 10:40:48 PM
permalink
Quote: tringlomaneIt's not super close by the numbers, but if AKs vs. AKo actually gave a distribution of Win: 8% Tie: 90% Loss: 2%, instead of the actual 7.16%/90.67%/2.17%, then it would only have a 25% RoR. So I don't think it's that intuitive. At least it's not to me.
I meant, intuitive after seeing the "percent of non-tied hands won" numbers. An extra 2% chance of not losing on the first non-tied decision seems extremely important, to me.
Then again, that's just my intuition -- it could be wrong. The reason for the discrepancy might be something else entirely :)
March 16th, 2014 at 10:59:27 PM
permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI meant, intuitive after seeing the "percent of non-tied hands won" numbers. An extra 2% chance of not losing on the first non-tied decision seems extremely important, to me.
Then again, that's just my intuition -- it could be wrong. The reason for the discrepancy might be something else entirely :)
Personally I think your intuition (and chauncey's) is better than mine. That is probably one of the bigger factors in determining the RoR for this particular scenario.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:32:20 PM
permalink
8.9 suited
get second you pig
March 17th, 2014 at 12:04:01 AM
permalink
Quote: ontariodealer8.9 suited
If rest of the 8's and 9's are dead, then sure.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=8695142
pokenum -h as ks - 8d 9d / -dead cards 8h 9h 8c 9c 8s 9s
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 690569 81.18 155487 18.28 4612 0.54 0.815
9d 8d 155487 18.28 690569 81.18 4612 0.54 0.185
March 17th, 2014 at 9:55:21 AM
permalink
Quote: chaunceyb3If rest of the 8's and 9's are dead, then sure.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=8695142
pokenum -h as ks - 8d 9d / -dead cards 8h 9h 8c 9c 8s 9s
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 690569 81.18 155487 18.28 4612 0.54 0.815
9d 8d 155487 18.28 690569 81.18 4612 0.54 0.185
This is a bigger troll answer than the "Mathematicians Fallacy" crap lol
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
