Thread Rating:

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1323
  • Posts: 21756
September 25th, 2013 at 2:58:09 AM permalink
Update: The answer below is WRONG. Please see my retraction.


This looks like an investment with a 17% advantage. Read the details at cardplayer.com. As usual, the article doesn't tell the reader the important information to determine the value of shares on Amir. Here is how many chips each player has and the share of the total.

Player Chips Share
JC Tran 38,000,000 19.93%
Amir Lehavot 29,700,000 15.58%
Marc McLaughlin 26,525,000 13.91%
Jay Farber 25,975,000 13.62%
Ryan Riess 25,875,000 13.57%
Sylvain Loosli 19,600,000 10.28%
Michiel Brummelhuis 11,275,000 5.91%
Mark Newhouse 7,350,000 3.85%
David Benefield 6,375,000 3.34%


Here is how much each place wins.

Place Win
1st $8,359,531
2nd $5,173,170
3rd $3,727,023
4th $2,791,983
5th $2,106,526
6th $1,600,792
7th $1,225,224
8th $944,593
9th $733,224


Total prize money to top 9 = $26,662,066. Amir's expected win above the guaranteed 9th place win is 15.58%*$26,662,066 - $733,224 = $3,419,724. Each 1% of that is worth $34,197. The article says each 1% share costs $29,248. That would be an expected return of 34197/29248 = 117%, or a 17% advantage.

Assuming he can be trusted to pay, and not throw the game, this is a great value.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 6820
September 25th, 2013 at 3:22:32 AM permalink
So are you buying a share? Is it legal, by the way? My guess if you win it would be taxable income, but if you lose it would be hard for most to deduct, possibly turning it into a negative EV situation.
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
  • Threads: 154
  • Posts: 5701
September 25th, 2013 at 4:40:31 AM permalink
Looks like Amir doesn't have a lot of faith in his ability to finish where he is currently at. Or am I looking at this too simply?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 6820
September 25th, 2013 at 5:34:57 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Looks like Amir doesn't have a lot of faith in his ability to finish where he is currently at. Or am I looking at this too simply?



He is simply hedging. If he sold all of his shares he guarantees $2.9 million. Bad luck/bad play could limit him to 700k. If he wins the main event, even though he is out many millions initially, he gets entries into other big +EV events, endorsements, etc.

It's a question we ask here periodically, when does a number become big enough that chasing more +EV is not worth it? I think we would all take 100% chance at $2.9million over a 10% chance at $32million as an example.
randomperson
randomperson
Joined: Dec 21, 2012
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 161
September 25th, 2013 at 8:09:48 AM permalink
It's better to use icm here.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 6088
September 25th, 2013 at 9:33:44 AM permalink
This seems like a win/win for Amir. Sell 300% of yourself, bust out first, make $10 million.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
September 25th, 2013 at 9:40:22 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 3667
September 25th, 2013 at 9:42:19 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

This seems like a win/win for Amir. Sell 300% of yourself, bust out first, make $10 million.



Springtime for Hitler?
kenarman
kenarman
Joined: Nov 22, 2009
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 966
September 25th, 2013 at 4:27:48 PM permalink
It seems like a good deal to me. Amir is a poker pro and has won a $10K buy-in tournament before so knows what he is doing.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 829
September 25th, 2013 at 8:52:23 PM permalink
Quote: kenarman

It seems like a good deal to me. Amir is a poker pro and has won a $10K buy-in tournament before so knows what he is doing.



How are his past results remotely relevant if not taken into the context of his opponents results?

He could be the 9th best poker player on the planet. If the other 8 are at the table ...

  • Jump to: