Amir Lehavot Selling Action For World Series Of Poker Main Event Final Table
September 25th, 2013 at 2:58:09 AM
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Update: The answer below is WRONG. Please see my retraction.
This looks like an investment with a 17% advantage. Read the details at cardplayer.com. As usual, the article doesn't tell the reader the important information to determine the value of shares on Amir. Here is how many chips each player has and the share of the total.
Here is how much each place wins.
Total prize money to top 9 = $26,662,066. Amir's expected win above the guaranteed 9th place win is 15.58%*$26,662,066 - $733,224 = $3,419,724. Each 1% of that is worth $34,197. The article says each 1% share costs $29,248. That would be an expected return of 34197/29248 = 117%, or a 17% advantage.
Assuming he can be trusted to pay, and not throw the game, this is a great value.
This looks like an investment with a 17% advantage. Read the details at cardplayer.com. As usual, the article doesn't tell the reader the important information to determine the value of shares on Amir. Here is how many chips each player has and the share of the total.
| Player | Chips | Share |
|---|---|---|
| JC Tran | 38,000,000 | 19.93% |
| Amir Lehavot | 29,700,000 | 15.58% |
| Marc McLaughlin | 26,525,000 | 13.91% |
| Jay Farber | 25,975,000 | 13.62% |
| Ryan Riess | 25,875,000 | 13.57% |
| Sylvain Loosli | 19,600,000 | 10.28% |
| Michiel Brummelhuis | 11,275,000 | 5.91% |
| Mark Newhouse | 7,350,000 | 3.85% |
| David Benefield | 6,375,000 | 3.34% |
Here is how much each place wins.
| Place | Win |
|---|---|
| 1st | $8,359,531 |
| 2nd | $5,173,170 |
| 3rd | $3,727,023 |
| 4th | $2,791,983 |
| 5th | $2,106,526 |
| 6th | $1,600,792 |
| 7th | $1,225,224 |
| 8th | $944,593 |
| 9th | $733,224 |
Total prize money to top 9 = $26,662,066. Amir's expected win above the guaranteed 9th place win is 15.58%*$26,662,066 - $733,224 = $3,419,724. Each 1% of that is worth $34,197. The article says each 1% share costs $29,248. That would be an expected return of 34197/29248 = 117%, or a 17% advantage.
Assuming he can be trusted to pay, and not throw the game, this is a great value.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
September 25th, 2013 at 3:22:32 AM
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So are you buying a share? Is it legal, by the way? My guess if you win it would be taxable income, but if you lose it would be hard for most to deduct, possibly turning it into a negative EV situation.
September 25th, 2013 at 4:40:31 AM
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Looks like Amir doesn't have a lot of faith in his ability to finish where he is currently at. Or am I looking at this too simply?
September 25th, 2013 at 5:34:57 AM
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Quote: BozLooks like Amir doesn't have a lot of faith in his ability to finish where he is currently at. Or am I looking at this too simply?
He is simply hedging. If he sold all of his shares he guarantees $2.9 million. Bad luck/bad play could limit him to 700k. If he wins the main event, even though he is out many millions initially, he gets entries into other big +EV events, endorsements, etc.
It's a question we ask here periodically, when does a number become big enough that chasing more +EV is not worth it? I think we would all take 100% chance at $2.9million over a 10% chance at $32million as an example.
September 25th, 2013 at 8:09:48 AM
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It's better to use icm here.
September 25th, 2013 at 9:33:44 AM
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This seems like a win/win for Amir. Sell 300% of yourself, bust out first, make $10 million.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
September 25th, 2013 at 9:40:22 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 25th, 2013 at 9:42:19 AM
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Quote: DRichThis seems like a win/win for Amir. Sell 300% of yourself, bust out first, make $10 million.
Springtime for Hitler?
September 25th, 2013 at 4:27:48 PM
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It seems like a good deal to me. Amir is a poker pro and has won a $10K buy-in tournament before so knows what he is doing.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
September 25th, 2013 at 8:52:23 PM
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Quote: kenarmanIt seems like a good deal to me. Amir is a poker pro and has won a $10K buy-in tournament before so knows what he is doing.
How are his past results remotely relevant if not taken into the context of his opponents results?
He could be the 9th best poker player on the planet. If the other 8 are at the table ...
